A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[moonslav59]

Happy

New

Year!

 

[Nick]

Mookie Betts is heading for first ballot HOF. That’s the dumbest statement ever

 

Ok I have always treated this Yankee fan with respect. No more. I am not only one to say it. I have seen videos of Rafaela playing defense. He has speed, good instincts, efficient route to the ball and strong arm. Get the f*** off the Sox board. You are the worst kind of Yankee fan. At least they act like jerks from get go. I wont forget your comment.

[Nick]

Rafaela was named Defensive Player of the Year for the Sox farm system the last two years. Apparently no one will ever surpass Betts defensively according to a Yankee fan.

[harmony]

There is just no way a comp pick for Devers is acceptable.

 

Lock him up by opening day, or trade him.

 

Everyone knows my preference.

The Red Sox should be all over this proposed Rafael Devers trade to the Mets:

 

https://fansided.com/2022/12/29/mets-trade-package-rafael-devers/

[harmony]

Happy

New

Year!

 

Wishing our favorite teams and their fans a Happy New Year!

[Old Red]

There is just no way a comp pick for Devers is acceptable.

 

Lock him up by opening day, or trade him.

 

Everyone knows my preference.

 

Dugy for Mookie was not acceptable. Botching up the Bogey situation , and getting a comp pick was not acceptable, and not resigning Raffy, and only getting a comp pick would be unacceptable, but all would be what the Red Sox deserve.

[moonslav59]

Dugy for Mookie was not acceptable. Botching up the Bogey situation , and getting a comp pick was not acceptable, and not resigning Raffy, and only getting a comp pick would be unacceptable, but all would be what the Red Sox deserve.

 

Your true colors shining through.

[Old Red]

Your true colors shining through.

 

Putting the blame where blame should be, and yes it does matter. The Red Sox created the mess themselves.

[moonslav59]

Putting the blame where blame should be, and yes it does matter. The Red Sox created the mess themselves.

 

At least you finally showed your true feelings on the Sox "deserving" this. It doesn't surprise me you feel this way.

 

[Old Red]

At least you finally showed your true feelings on the Sox "deserving" this. It doesn't surprise me you feel this way.

 

 

They could have signed Mookie, and they chose not to. They could have signed Bogey, and chose not to. So far they haven’t signed Raffy, because they have chosen not to, and to you no one is to blame for that, and to me the Red Sox are, and will be worse off for doing so, and a better ranking for the farm will not save them.

[moonslav59]

They could have signed Mookie, and they chose not to. They could have signed Bogey, and chose not to. So far they haven’t signed Raffy, because they have chosen not to, and to you no one is to blame for that, and to me the Red Sox are, and will be worse off for doing so, and a better ranking for the farm will not save them.

 

Hope you can find a way to have a ....

 

Happy New Year!

[moonslav59]

Top wRC+ Leaders from 2021-2022 (1000+ PAs)

 

1. Judge 179

13. Betts 138

16. Devers 137

25. Bogey 132

38. J Turner 125

40. JD M 123

51. Renfroe 118

57. Beni 113

85. Dugo 105

 

2017-2022 (2500+ PAs)

1. Trout 179

2. Judge 166

3. Soto 153

9. Betts 140

11. JD M 139

15. J Turner 136

26. Bogey 127

31. Devers 123

58. Beni 109

60. Story 109

89. JBJ 79 (91 qualified)

 

 

 

Edited January 1, 2023 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Top Red Sox Playoff OPS by Season (2003-2021)

35+ ABs

 

1.279 Papi '04

1.260 Kike '21

1.230 Youk '07

1.206 Papi '13

1.204 Papi '07

1.160 Manny '07

1.158 T Walker '03

1.135 JD M '21

1.105 JBay '08

1.084 Pearce '18

1.061 Nixon '03

1.057 VTek '03

1.028 Devers '21

1.018 Lowell '07

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Rafaela was named Defensive Player of the Year for the Sox farm system the last two years. Apparently no one will ever surpass Betts defensively according to a Yankee fan.

 

Three years ago, this same Yankee poster said Betts was too short to deserve a longterm contract. Now he's declaring Mookie a first ballot Hall of Famer.

 

Marcus must have grown.

[Nick]

Three years ago, this same Yankee poster said Betts was too short to deserve a longterm contract. Now he's declaring Mookie a first ballot Hall of Famer.

 

Marcus must have grown.

 

Thanks for that!!!!

[Nick]

2018 Devers, YR1 $564,000 Played in 121 games, OPS .731 OPS+ 94

2019 Devers, YR2 $614,000 Played in 156 games, OPS .916 OPS+ 132

 

This is where we missed our opportunity. We let Moncada go in Chris Sale trade in part DD recognized Devers as superior talent even though the Sox paid a "fee" ($35M?) for the previledge of signing Moncada.

 

2020 Devers, YR3 $692,000......

 

I think you have to roll the dice after YR 2.......I believe that's where we're headed. If you give me 3-1 odds on Sox not extending, I'll take the bet (that it won't happen, I'll pay $300 to win $100)

Edited January 1, 2023 by Nick

[notin]

They could have signed Mookie, and they chose not to. They could have signed Bogey, and chose not to. So far they haven’t signed Raffy, because they have chosen not to, and to you no one is to blame for that, and to me the Red Sox are, and will be worse off for doing so, and a better ranking for the farm will not save them.

 

When? !?!

 

Betts’ last demand was reportedly $400mill (or $420mill by some accounts). The sides were over $100mill apart!!

 

At that point, the Sox changed focus and signed Bogaerts and Sale instead…

[notin]

2018 Devers, YR1 $564,000 Played in 121 games, OPS .731 OPS+ 94

2019 Devers, YR2 $614,000 Played in 156 games, OPS .916 OPS+ 132

 

This is where we missed our opportunity. We let Moncada go in Chris Sale trade in part DD recognized Devers as superior talent even though the Sox paid a "fee" to sing Moncada.

 

2020 Devers, YR3 $692,000......

 

I think you have to roll the dice after YR 2.......

 

 

At the very least, the time that made the most sense was after 2019, as it could have become a positive PR move after dealing Betts…

[moonslav59]

When? !?!

 

Betts’ last demand was reportedly $400mill (or $420mill by some accounts). The sides were over $100mill apart!!

 

At that point, the Sox changed focus and signed Bogaerts and Sale instead…

 

The best "time" was probably when his mom talked him out of taking the reported $200M deal. Maybe had they comeback with $220

 

I guess, somehow, it's still Bloom's fault.

[Nick]

Maybe we had money to sign Betts....we bet on the wrong horse.

 

Mookie was already making $20M in 2019. We had already signed Eovaldi starting in 2019 for $17M for 4 years. Porcello's contract for $20M was coming off the books after 2019.

 

Sale was in his last year of 2 year option years he had signed with the White Sox.

 

How things would have been different had we valued Betts over Sale, or maybe wait to sign Sale after he became FA. (obviously he got hurt that year AFTER signing a new deal during the spring training)

 

It's about choices....too late.

Edited January 1, 2023 by Nick

[Nick]

When? !?!

 

Betts’ last demand was reportedly $400mill (or $420mill by some accounts). The sides were over $100mill apart!!

 

At that point, the Sox changed focus and signed Bogaerts and Sale instead…

 

Very good! (also Sox was going to get below the tax line after going over in 2018 and 2019)

Edited January 1, 2023 by Nick

[notin]

Maybe we had money to sign Betts....we bet on the wrong horse.

 

Mookie was already making $20M in 2019. We had already signed Eovaldi starting in 2019 for $17M for 4 years. Porcello's contract for $20M was coming off the books after 2019.

 

Sale was in his last year of 2 year option years he had signed with the White Sox.

 

How things would have been different had we valued Betts over Sale, or maybe wait to sign Sale after he became FA. (obviously he got hurt that year AFTER signing a new deal during the spring training)

 

It's about choices....too late.

 

 

It looked like the Sox pivoted to Bogaerts and Sale after negotiations with Betts broke down. Why they didn’t wait for Sale to get healthy is anybody’s guess…

[moonslav59]

Very good! (also Sox was going to get below the tax line after going over in 2018 and 2019)

 

This is the point most often ignored, and where somehow the blam gets thrown on Bloom. (Plus, the 2019 team never replaced Kimbrel, Kelly and others lost from 2018, so that team was not what some want to remember it as being.)

 

What were his choices? How else does he cut the budget? He can't trade Price for a bag of used balls, even by paying half his salary.

 

We cut $60M from the 2019 budget, yet somehow people expected continued winning.

 

Here were the big salaries carried over:

$31M Price

$29M Betts (last arb at $9M more than 2019)

$27M Sale (extension kicked in)

$22M JD

$20M Bogey (extension kicked in)

$17M Nate

$14M Pedey

 

Salaries lost: $35M lost by not re-signing

$21M Porcello

$6M Pearce

$5M Nunez

$3M Holt

 

Subtract that $35M not brought back from the $60M cut from 2019 to 2020, and you come up with $25M to cut, but here is the key: you cut just $25M, you have zero to spend on any additions to the team around who you decide to keep.

 

They chose to trade Betts ($29M) and half-Price ($16M) while trading some salary at the 2020 deadline- like Moreland, Workman, Hembree, Pillar, Osich...

 

They cut about $45M in the Betts/half=Price sale which created enough budget space to sign:

$6.5M Perez

$4.2M Pillar

$2.9M Peraza

$1.5M Lucroy

 

What were some other viable options?

 

Trade Bogey or Sale and sign the same guys the did?

 

Trade Nate & JBJ and sign nobody at all?

 

Here's my favorite option some actually believe was an choice: Bloom should have convinced JH to spend more.

 

I guess, in hindsight, trading Sale and JBJ would have been the best choice, while extending Betts to whatever he'd have taken, try to rework the Bogey opt-out extension and lock up Devers forevers after 2019, but without causing the budget to go up one inch.

 

Hmmmm....

Edited January 1, 2023 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

It looked like the Sox pivoted to Bogaerts and Sale after negotiations with Betts broke down. Why they didn’t wait for Sale to get healthy is anybody’s guess…

 

The one star they don't wait until the last minute to extend, ends up giving us nothing.

 

(Okay, we did extend Bogey, so 2 guys, but one just got ujs one more year.)

 

The Nate extension was second tier.

[moonslav59]

It looked like the Sox pivoted to Bogaerts and Sale after negotiations with Betts broke down. Why they didn’t wait for Sale to get healthy is anybody’s guess…

 

Maybe the pivot from Bogey to Devers works out better than the Betts to Sale pivot.

[Bellhorn04]

It looked like the Sox pivoted to Bogaerts and Sale after negotiations with Betts broke down. Why they didn’t wait for Sale to get healthy is anybody’s guess…

 

The only explanation is that Sale was (arguably) offering a discount - 5 years, 145 million with deferrals that brought the present value to 128 million, compared to the 7/217 Price got.

 

And one could speculate that the discount was tied to injury risk.

 

But obviously, the risk was underestimated.

 

There were some interesting comments by a baseball team doctor in connection with the Correa situation, about what a difficult position the docs get put in in these cases, being asked to do health projections that are extremely uncertain.

[notin]

Maybe the pivot from Bogey to Devers works out better than the Betts to Sale pivot.

 

I think people are overreacting to losing Bogaerts. He was a hitter, but not much of a shortstop. And he’s not a “generational talent” like Betts.

 

He’s a very good hitter who needs a new position.

 

But I will give him this - he NEVER gets hurt…

Edited January 1, 2023 by notin

[Bellhorn04]

I think people are overreacting to losing Bogaerts. He was a hitter, but not much of a shortstop. And he’s not a “generational talent” like Betts.

 

He’s a very good hitter who needs a new position…

 

WAR says that Bogaerts's bat much more than makes up for his defense, which is actually about average as far as I can see.

 

It's with guys like Bogaerts that WAR is a very helpful tool, IMHO.

[moonslav59]

The only explanation is that Sale was (arguably) offering a discount - 5 years, 145 million with deferrals that brought the present value to 128 million, compared to the 7/217 Price got.

 

And one could speculate that the discount was tied to injury risk.

 

But obviously, the risk was underestimated.

 

There were some interesting comments by a baseball team doctor in connection with the Correa situation, about what a difficult position the docs get put in in these cases, being asked to do health projections that are extremely uncertain.

 

That's how I saw it. If Sale was healthy for 4 of the 5 years, his market value was close to $145M/4 and we gave him $145M/5.

[Nick]

We have two years to develop additional pitching depth so that we can say goodbyes to Sales (34) $25.6M, Jansen (35) $16.0M and Martin (37) $7.5M. This is Barnes (33) $9.375M last year, another overpaid contract (albeit gamble taken and gamble lost when extended).

 

It would help if Bello and Whitlock become fixtures as starters.