2022 Starting Rotation Thread

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Who gets the most innings from these groups:

 

A) Eovaldi or Pivetta

 

Houck or Whitlock

 

C) Sale or Paxton

 

D) Wacha or Hill

 

E) Barnes, Diekman, Taylor or Brasier

 

F) Strahm, Davis, DHern, Robles or Sawamura

 

G) Crawford, Seabold, Winckowski or Bello

 

H) Valdez, Holland, Bazardo

 

 

Eovaldi, Whitlock, Hill, Barnes (Barnhog Day: April-July overuse, Aug burnout), Sawamura, Winck, Valdez... and whatever Paxton can give us; Sale is doomed for sad and tired comebacks and breakdowns.

[jacksonianmarch]

Here is the issue with the sox rotation... It doesn't give innings and the pen isn't good enough

 

Eovaldi was the best averaging just under 6IP per start

Nick Pivetta averaged 5.1IP per start. That is not good.

Sale will be coming off a core injury and wasn't a warrior when he returned last year either. I do not expect the sox to let him off a chain until after the ASB

Rich Hill is 42 and averaged almost exactly 5IP per start last year

Wacha was under 5IP per start and sucked. He had major issues with the HR ball and he moves to Fenway?

 

Then you've got Houck who struggles beyond 2nd time through lineup and probably your best option languishing in the pen in Whitlock.

 

I'd have zero issue with a 5IP starting core if your pen was rock solid, but that pen is as suspect as can be

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Here is the issue with the sox rotation... It doesn't give innings and the pen isn't good enough

 

 

You sure you're a Yankee fan? This sums up what all but the most optimistic Red Sox fans have been saying all winter.

 

When it comes to quality pitching, it's like Boston is still in lockout. Unfortunately, the Sox are undefeated and lights out through the first week of ST, so what we see is probably what we'll get (typing reverse-acquistion post -- hey, it worked for Story).

[jacksonianmarch]

You sure you're a Yankee fan? This sums up what all but the most optimistic Red Sox fans have been saying all winter.

 

When it comes to quality pitching, it's like Boston is still in lockout. Unfortunately, the Sox are undefeated and lights out through the first week of ST, so what we see is probably what we'll get (typing reverse-acquistion post -- hey, it worked for Story).

 

The worst value in baseball comes when you spend big money on pitchers, so I see how their offseason fits into the Bloom model. But even I cannot make heads or tails of this approach. Sale is injury prone at this point. Eovaldi is shedding the label but is only locked in for one more year. Pivetta is a glorified fifth starter. Wacha and Hill are on borrowed time. I do not see how their current pitching can keep pace with the rest of the ALE, especially when they arent the cream of the crop anymore offensively (still good, just not head and shoulders better)

[notin]

Here is the issue with the sox rotation... It doesn't give innings and the pen isn't good enough

 

Eovaldi was the best averaging just under 6IP per start

Nick Pivetta averaged 5.1IP per start. That is not good.

Sale will be coming off a core injury and wasn't a warrior when he returned last year either. I do not expect the sox to let him off a chain until after the ASB

Rich Hill is 42 and averaged almost exactly 5IP per start last year

Wacha was under 5IP per start and sucked. He had major issues with the HR ball and he moves to Fenway?

 

Then you've got Houck who struggles beyond 2nd time through lineup and probably your best option languishing in the pen in Whitlock.

 

I'd have zero issue with a 5IP starting core if your pen was rock solid, but that pen is as suspect as can be

 

 

It’s becoming a bullpen game, but a team can win with a 4-deep lights out bullpen.

 

The Sox don’t have that, and moving Houck to the rotation brings them further away.

 

Diekman isa good (nowhere near great, but we’ll-entrenched in good) pitcher no one will ever classify as “lights out.” Strahm looks like a leap of faith to me. And I have never been a big believer of Brasier.

 

I do still have faith in Barnes and Whitlock. I am hoping for another arm, and if Austin Davis needs to be DFAd and released to fit him, so be it.

 

My personal choice is Jose Urena could be a lights out reliever. And since no one will ever sign him for that role to prove me wrong, I get to keep saying it and pretending I’m on to something. But in the mean time, I’m still on the Oliver Drake train, although he is really a right-handed Diekman…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The worst value in baseball comes when you spend big money on pitchers, so I see how their offseason fits into the Bloom model. But even I cannot make heads or tails of this approach. Sale is injury prone at this point. Eovaldi is shedding the label but is only locked in for one more year. Pivetta is a glorified fifth starter. Wacha and Hill are on borrowed time. I do not see how their current pitching can keep pace with the rest of the ALE, especially when they arent the cream of the crop anymore offensively (still good, just not head and shoulders better)

 

The pitching is more rag-tag reclamation projects with no viable replacement yet for ERod, and I wasn't even a supporter of his. But ERod was under 30 and dependable before and after Covid, and I would say mostly because he was under 30. Barring a trade, the best hope is that at least two young starters take a step forward -- though two is unlikely.

 

I'm not worried about the offense. Story's righty power replaces Renfroe's. Schwarber will be missed, but remember he was only a factor for about two months, and some other bats could improve.

[vegasbob]

For all the talk about pitching , little has been said about Matt Barnes, which suits me fine because IMO he is a loser . Having set my personal tone, does he still have the ability ( physically and mentally) to make the significant contributions Bloom contemplated when the 2021 All Star was given a gift of a new contract ?

If he could return to his first half 2021 results that would assure him that I would not be calling him the reliever for the team from OZ , lacking courage, heart and a brain. If he does overachieve in 2022, then all is forgiven, Matt. Go get'em , Tiger

[moonslav59]

For all the talk about pitching , little has been said about Matt Barnes, which suits me fine because IMO he is a loser . Having set my personal tone, does he still have the ability ( physically and mentally) to make the significant contributions Bloom contemplated when the 2021 All Star was given a gift of a new contract ?

If he could return to his first half 2021 results that would assure him that I would not be calling him the reliever for the team from OZ , lacking courage, heart and a brain. If he does overachieve in 2022, then all is forgiven, Matt. Go get'em , Tiger

 

Certainly the end to 2021 turned us sour on Barnes, but you and a few other seem to have deep and lasting negative feeling towards him.

 

He sure doesn't look like he deserves $9.4M a year, but when you compare him to other RP'ers in MLB over the past 5 years, he places in the top third in many key categories.

 

2017-2021: Let's assume 7 RP'er per team and 30 teams, so 210 pitchers in the sample size. (Many teams use 8, but I'll go with just the top 7 by innings pitched since 2017. 110 IP brings the sample size to 233. I'll go with that and then make a larger sample size study.)

 

Top 233 RP'ers by IP since 2017. Barnes places:

 

14th xFIP- at 71

15th in xFIP at 3.10

17th fWAR at 4.6

22nd K-BB% at 23.5%

26th SIERA at 3.08

80th K/BB at 3.1

94th ERA- at 83

109th WHIP at 1.26

All this with a pretty crappy D behind him (195th in BAbip at .311)

 

So, top 3rd tier is anyone above 77th. Middle tier 78-155. Bottom tier 156-233.

5 categories fall in top tier

3 in middle tier

BAbip in bottom tier (poor D)

 

Let's up the inning sample size to 190 and we get 88 pitchers, or about the top 3 from all 30 teams: Top tier 1-30, 2nd tier 31-60, 3rd tier 61-88.

 

Barnes places:

9th in xFIP

9th xFIP-

14th K-BB%

15th fWAR

15th SIERA

40th K/BB

48th ERA-

56th WHIP

80th in BAbip

Again,

5 categories in top tier, but none in middle tier, and 3 in bottom tier plus the awful BAbip.

 

Comparatively speaking, he's been pretty good. $9.4M good, no, but still pretty good. Speaking of $9.4M, here's what the top RP'ers signed for, this winter:(WAR ranking from 2017-2021)

$16M x 1 Jansen (3rd)

$14.5 x 4 R Iglesias (7th)

$10M x 1 McHugh (44th)

($9.3M x 2 Barnes 15th)

$8.5M x 2 Neris (32nd)

$8.5M x 2 Loup (53rd)

$8.5M x 2 Kelly (55th)

$8M x 3 Graveman (DNQ)

$7M x 2 Melancon (36th)

$7M x 2 Tepera (40th)

$6.5M x 2 Chafin (24th)

 

On the bright side, we could have signed Kelly for slightly less.

[iortiz]

Sale missing to open the season is terrible, terrible blow for us.

 

The rotation is a concern.

 

I expected him fully healthy and in opening day.

[vegasbob]

Looks like Eovaldi is about ready for the season getting 4 no hit innings, 6Ks. Gotta have another long, strong year from him

[iortiz]

Looks like Eovaldi is about ready for the season getting 4 no hit innings, 6Ks. Gotta have another long, strong year from him

 

He looks great. It's a f shame Sale is not ready man.

[Nick]

Even before today's outing, I've not been impressed at all with Seabold. He just looks too small to be a starter.

 

Yep, I guess I'm size biased.

 

On the other hand, I'm intrigued by Fitzgerald kid. Not a big guy, but he can hit long ways.

Edited March 24, 2022 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Even before today's outing, I've not been impressed at all with Seabold. He just looks too small to be a starter.

 

Yep, I guess I'm size biased.

 

On the other hand, I'm intrigued by Fitzgerald kid. Not a big guy, but he can hit long ways.

 

He's one of a few that might make their way to a spot start or two, this year:

 

Crawford

 

Winckowski

 

Seabold

 

maybe Bello

 

BTW, B-R has him listed at 6-2 and 190. In 4 minor league seasons, he has a 9.4 K/9 and 1.081 WHIP. (3.51 ERA)

 

Edited March 24, 2022 by moonslav59

[Nick]

He's one of a few that might make their way to a spot start or two, this year:

 

Crawford

 

Winckowski

 

Seabold

 

maybe Bello

 

BTW, B-R has him listed at 6-2 and 190. In 4 minor league seasons, he has a 9.4 K/9 and 1.081 WHIP. (3.51 ERA)

 

 

Wow....I'm way off on his height....

[moonslav59]

Wow....I'm way off on his height....

 

B-R 6'2 could mean 6-1 of 6 feet.

[jacksonianmarch]

I’m utterly shocked the Sox haven’t dealt for Manaea yet. He’s the perfect ERod replacement. He’s one year away from Fa, so price shouldn’t be too crazy and the Sox need a reliable arm with Sale down.

[moonslav59]

I’m utterly shocked the Sox haven’t dealt for Manaea yet. He’s the perfect ERod replacement. He’s one year away from Fa, so price shouldn’t be too crazy and the Sox need a reliable arm with Sale down.

 

I think Bloom is not the good prospects for 1 year of control type GM.

 

If we could get the A's to add Langeliers, then maybe. (I'd say Trivino, too, but I don't want to start a riot.)

 

BTV accepts this deal, where we trade a lefty OF'er for a salary dump right handed hitter and get our catcher of the future and a RH'd RP'er along with Manaea.

 

Duran, Downs, Jordan & Walter

for

Manaea, Langeliers, Piscotty & Trivino

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I’m utterly shocked the Sox haven’t dealt for Manaea yet. He’s the perfect ERod replacement. He’s one year away from Fa, so price shouldn’t be too crazy and the Sox need a reliable arm with Sale down.

 

I'm just assuming Beane is the happy barker, scanning the room, playing bidders off each other, upping the ante, asking all what's a metaphor you?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Looks like Eovaldi is about ready for the season getting 4 no hit innings, 6Ks. Gotta have another long, strong year from him

 

I still don't get those who excitedly say, "Next year, Eovaldi's contract will be off the books!"

 

Nate loves Boston, says he wants to stay in Boston, and Boston can afford to keep him; but can the Sox afford to lose him? Having money to replace an ace at the top of the rotation is great... but good luck trying to find another one.

[Hugh2]

Eovaldi is still just 32, which doesn’t seem particularly young for a pitcher but I get the vibe he’s going to be the guy who pitches until he’s 40 if he wants to.

 

4 more years! 4 more years!

[notin]

Eovaldi is still just 32, which doesn’t seem particularly young for a pitcher but I get the vibe he’s going to be the guy who pitches until he’s 40 if he wants to.

 

4 more years! 4 more years!

 

 

Eovaldi goes one season without getting hurt for the first time in eight years and now people think he’s immune?? And got 8 years left?

[Bellhorn04]

Eovaldi goes one season without getting hurt for the first time in eight years and now people think he’s immune?? And got 8 years left?

 

It's called optimism. Even Chaim Bloom has it, or he wouldn't have signed Paxton...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Eovaldi goes one season without getting hurt for the first time in eight years and now people think he’s immune?? And got 8 years left?

 

Any overhand pitcher at any age is an injury risk, every year. Two things we know about Nate: he's been successful in Boston and he's a workout animal. Healthy lifestyles are a decent predictor.

[mvp 78]

Eovaldi goes one season without getting hurt for the first time in eight years and now people think he’s immune?? And got 8 years left?

 

He didn't even pitch a full season in 2020 when it was only 60 games.

[mvp 78]

Any overhand pitcher at any age is an injury risk, every year. Two things we know about Nate: he's been successful in Boston and he's a workout animal. Healthy lifestyles are a decent predictor.

 

A better predictor is that since 2015, he's only had 1 season where he pitched a full year.

[notin]

It's called optimism. Even Chaim Bloom has it, or he wouldn't have signed Paxton...

 

He didn’t commit 4 years to Paxton. He gave him one of those “2 years but we know you’re hurt for the first year” contracts…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

A better predictor is that since 2015, he's only had 1 season where he pitched a full year.

 

Again, who has, that 1) will even be available, and 2) would be a better investment than someone who has improved and established himself in Boston over the course of his contract?

[mvp 78]

Again, who has, that 1) will even be available, and 2) would be a better investment than someone who has improved and established himself in Boston over the course of his contract?

 

You said his healthy lifestyle was an indicator that he'd have continued health. I just said the better indicator is that he almost often misses significant time during the season. It has nothing to do with what FA will be available.

 

However, FA's that may be a better bet than Eovaldi: DeGrom, Manaea, Nola, Quintana, Syndergaard.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

You said his healthy lifestyle was an indicator that he'd have continued health. I just said the better indicator is that he almost often misses significant time during the season. It has nothing to do with what FA will be available.

 

However, FA's that may be a better bet than Eovaldi: DeGrom, Manaea, Nola, Quintana, Syndergaard.

 

That's a decent list, and the reason I don't say good to great is that all have had recent injuries and will be over 30 next winter (except Nola, 29). What I didn't know is that DeGrom is older than Eovaldi...

 

The reason I think Nate's workouts make him a good future investment is that he continues to establish a program, in-season and off-season, to try to ensure regular turns through the rotation all year. He missed a few starts in '20, but has been by far the dependable ace the past two seasons. It's an encouraging trend.

[moonslav59]

I still don't get those who excitedly say, "Next year, Eovaldi's contract will be off the books!"

 

Nate loves Boston, says he wants to stay in Boston, and Boston can afford to keep him; but can the Sox afford to lose him? Having money to replace an ace at the top of the rotation is great... but good luck trying to find another one.

 

Who is happy about that $17M coming off the books?

 

He is mentioned when we say how much money is coming off the books, but replacing him and Bogey for $17 and $20M will not be easy.