2022 Starting Rotation Thread

[mvp 78]

Sox didn’t really get better. You lost one top offensive performer in Renfroe and essentially replaced him with Story in the lineup. Story’s D Will help at 2b as will JBJ’s in RF, but you shuffled the chairs here offensively and removed on minus offensive producer (Arroyo) and added another in (JBJ). You lost Schwarber and never replaced him.

 

Since 2016:

 

Trevor Story: 21.6 fWAR, 112 WRC+, net positive defender up the middle, great baserunner

Hunter Renfroe 5.8 fWAR, 106 WRC+, net negative defender in corner OF, poor baserunner

 

Just rearranging the chairs over here... Granted, Schwarber wasn't replaced, but he only had 168 PA's last season. Unless you are trying to say that Story is as good at one position as Renfroe and Schwarber were as good at two positions? If so, then as long as JBJ is a positive fWAR guy, the team will be better off.

[mvp 78]

https://twitter.com/TheSavBananas/status/1509153481373880321

 

File under 1978 Starting Rotation Thread.

[jacksonianmarch]

Since 2016:

 

Trevor Story: 21.6 fWAR, 112 WRC+, net positive defender up the middle, great baserunner

Hunter Renfroe 5.8 fWAR, 106 WRC+, net negative defender in corner OF, poor baserunner

 

Just rearranging the chairs over here... Granted, Schwarber wasn't replaced, but he only had 168 PA's last season. Unless you are trying to say that Story is as good at one position as Renfroe and Schwarber were as good at two positions? If so, then as long as JBJ is a positive fWAR guy, the team will be better off.

 

Just comparing 21’s offense to 22’s. Renfroe’s offense was solid in 21, actually better than Story’s. Schwarber was the catalyst for a late season surge. Guy was awesome. Sub out Renfroe, Schwarber and Arroyo from that lineup. Add in Dalbec, JBJ and Story and it’s definitely not an offensive upgrade.big defensive upgrade, though

[moonslav59]

Just comparing 21’s offense to 22’s. Renfroe’s offense was solid in 21, actually better than Story’s. Schwarber was the catalyst for a late season surge. Guy was awesome. Sub out Renfroe, Schwarber and Arroyo from that lineup. Add in Dalbec, JBJ and Story and it’s definitely not an offensive upgrade.big defensive upgrade, though

 

Dalbec did about as well as Schwarber in the second half. Arroyo is still going to play and should get more PAs than 2021, so why are we "subbing him out?"

 

We may add someone like Schwarber, again, at the deadline.

 

Our O should be just as good. Expect a bounce back by Vaz.

[moonslav59]

Just comparing 21’s offense to 22’s. Renfroe’s offense was solid in 21, actually better than Story’s. Schwarber was the catalyst for a late season surge. Guy was awesome. Sub out Renfroe, Schwarber and Arroyo from that lineup. Add in Dalbec, JBJ and Story and it’s definitely not an offensive upgrade.big defensive upgrade, though

 

Significant Losses:

.816 Renfroe (572 PAs)

.957 Schwarber (168)

.915 Iggy (64)

.843 Shaw (48)

 

That's about 850 PAs

 

Now, look at the additions by subtractions:

 

.567 Marwin (271)

.497 Cordero (136)

.597 Santana (127)

.549 Chavis (82)

.522 Lopez (16)

.182 Munoz (11)

 

That's about 650 PAs.

 

These are in between (will they play more or less?)

 

.769 Arroyo (181) Team OPS was .777

.643 Arauz (75)

.578 Duran (112)

[Bellhorn04]

It's conceivable that 4 AL East teams make the expanded 2022 postseason...

[moonslav59]

It's conceivable that 4 AL East teams make the expanded 2022 postseason...

 

Don't tell harmony this!

[harmony]

Don't tell harmony this!

FWIW: This year the AL East draws the NL Central instead of the NL East in interleague play while the AL West draws the NL East instead of the NL West.

[mvp 78]

Good for the NL East. Looks like they'll get a break this year.

[notin]

Significant Losses:

.816 Renfroe (572 PAs)

.957 Schwarber (168)

.915 Iggy (64)

.843 Shaw (48)

 

That's about 850 PAs

 

Now, look at the additions by subtractions:

 

.567 Marwin (271)

.497 Cordero (136)

.597 Santana (127)

.549 Chavis (82)

.522 Lopez (16)

.182 Munoz (11)

 

That's about 650 PAs.

 

These are in between (will they play more or less?)

 

.769 Arroyo (181) Team OPS was .777

.643 Arauz (75)

.578 Duran (112)

 

 

Isn’t Shaw back?

[harmony]

Good for the NL East. Looks like they'll get a break this year.

FWIW last year the New York Yankees were the only AL East team with a winning record against the AL West as the divisions finished within one game of .500 in head-to-head competition.

 

Jim Bowden of The Athletic gave these offseason grades:

 

D - Orioles

B - Red Sox

B - Yankees

C+ - Rays

A - Blue Jays

 

C - Astros

B- - Angels

A - Athletics

A - Mariners

A - Rangers

 

https://theathletic.com/3200369/2022/03/28/mlb-offseason-grades-for-all-30-teams-jim-bowdens-guide-to-a-wild-winter-and-whats-next/

(subscription required)

 

Of course the high grade for Oakland was based on its sell-off that has resulted in 2022 win projections that rival lowly Baltimore.

 

And a Jim Bowden endorsement is often a kiss of death.

 

Here's to an enjoyable 2022 season.

[illinoisredsox]

Isn’t Shaw back?

 

I think he’s on a minor league deal.

[notin]

I think he’s on a minor league deal.

 

Yes, but he isn’t home. Sort of the point.

 

In fact, he has a good shot to make the opening day roster…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

FWIW last year the New York Yankees were the only AL East team with a winning record against the AL West as the divisions finished within one game of .500 in head-to-head competition.

 

Jim Bowden of The Athletic gave these offseason grades:

 

D - Orioles

B - Red Sox

B - Yankees

C+ - Rays

A - Blue Jays

 

 

Who am I forgetting for the Jays? Lost Ray, added Gausman; lost Semien, added Chapman... that's maybe like a wash, though Semien led the AL in WAR.

 

Was Kikuchi enough extra credit to get Toronto an A?

 

ps. I do think the Jays are the favorite, but mostly because they're young stars will have one more year to mature...

[moonslav59]

Isn’t Shaw back?

 

YES!

 

My bad. So it's about 800 good PAs lost and 650 bad PAs lost, and maybe about 400 iffy players still on the roster but may get more or less PAs in 2022- Arroyo, Duran & Arauz.

[Bellhorn04]

Who am I forgetting for the Jays? Lost Ray, added Gausman; lost Semien, added Chapman... that's maybe like a wash, though Semien led the AL in WAR.

 

Was Kikuchi enough extra credit to get Toronto an A?

 

ps. I do think the Jays are the favorite, but mostly because they're young stars will have one more year to mature...

 

Other significant potential gains:

Full season of Berrios

Full season of Springer

 

Also, they had a Pythagorean record of 99-63 last year.

[moonslav59]

Other significant potential gains:

Full season of Berrios

Full season of Springer

 

Also, they had a Pythagorean record of 99-63 last year.

 

The two players, yes, but the Pyth has nothing to do with off season moves.

[Bellhorn04]

The two players, yes, but the Pyth has nothing to do with off season moves.

 

No, but it suggests they were better than their 2021 W-L record.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Ok, but I can't see Bowden grading them on simply becoming more Jay... though I do think the Canadian law that forbids unvaxxed opponents has to favor the home team.

[moonslav59]

No, but it suggests they were better than their 2021 W-L record.

 

I agree.

 

I'd probably predict this:

 

94 TOR

92 BOS

91 NYY

86 TBR

60 BAL

 

[Bellhorn04]

Ok, but I can't see Bowden grading them on simply becoming more Jay... though I do think the Canadian law that forbids unvaxxed opponents has to favor the home team.

 

It's practically cheating!

[Kimmi]

Yanks have their own problems. But your rotation is not solid. You don’t have a lights out pen to lean on if your rotation struggles. You better hope the Sox can mash, cause they’re gonna need it.

 

You said the same thing, last year.

 

I was going to post the same thing. LOL

[Kimmi]

Bottom line of all that, the Yankees have better talent on paper and the Sox have better management.

 

Management can make all the difference the way the game is now.

 

Cora and Bloom vs. Boone and Cash = mismatch.

 

Same as last year. Last year, the Yankees looked far better on paper than the Sox. This year, on paper, the gap between the Yankees and the Sox is smaller. And we still have the Cora factor.

[moonslav59]

Same as last year. Last year, the Yankees looked far better on paper than the Sox. This year, on paper, the gap between the Yankees and the Sox is smaller. And we still have the Cora factor.

 

The thing about "on paper" is that injuries are not usually part of the equation.

 

The Yanks are still loaded with injury prone players.

 

We have our share, but the Yanks always have double their share.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The thing about "on paper" is that injuries are not usually part of the equation.

 

The Yanks are still loaded with injury prone players.

 

We have our share, but the Yanks always have double their share.

 

Vegas is giving NY the usual odds... which literally guarantees contradictions.

[moonslav59]

Vegas is giving NY the usual odds... which literally guarantees contradictions.

 

The Sporting News gives the Sox the 4th best odds in the division:

 

+170 TOR

+221 NYY

+253 TBR

+491 BOS

+17300 BAL

 

It's not even close!

 

AL Champs?

+423 HOU

+440 TOR

+543 CWS

_545 NYY

+645 TBR

+831 BOS

 

World Series

+475 LAD

+889 TOR

+946 HOU

+1107 NYY

+1127 NYM

+1173 CWS

+1194 MIL

+1260 ATL

+1329 ATL

+1521 SDP

+1711 BOS

[mvp 78]

Sale is getting a follow up MRI today.

[moonslav59]

Fingers crossed.

[mvp 78]

Sale says he's feeling better and hopes he sees good results in the MRI.

[Kimmi]

The thing about "on paper" is that injuries are not usually part of the equation.

 

The Yanks are still loaded with injury prone players.

 

We have our share, but the Yanks always have double their share.

 

Our rotation was able to stay remarkably healthy last year. Hopefully, we see more of the same this year.

 

I never count the Yankees out, but I'm more "concerned" with the Jays and the Rays than I am about the Yankees.

 

It should be a fun division race. I wouldn't rule the Red Sox out as division winners!