2022 Starting Rotation Thread

[sk7326]

The catastrophic losses were at 1B/RF. Both of them were dicey ex ante, though Dalbec offered some hope (offset a bit by the Red Sox seeing his performance last year and deciding they needed to trade for Kyle Schwarber).

 

Eovaldi's injury, form was bad. Pivetta has been - well, typical Pivetta. His value lies in taking the ball. Agreed on Tanner Houck, M.D.. Whitlock has been fine when he has been healthy. (expecting 2021 again was nuts)

 

The pitching dropped off. But ultimately, a team that mashed their way around their problems simply didn't this year. And it really came down to getting "poor middle infield" level production out of freaking RF and 1B.

[moonslav59]

The catastrophic losses were at 1B/RF. Both of them were dicey ex ante, though Dalbec offered some hope (offset a bit by the Red Sox seeing his performance last year and deciding they needed to trade for Kyle Schwarber).

 

Eovaldi's injury, form was bad. Pivetta has been - well, typical Pivetta. His value lies in taking the ball. Agreed on Tanner Houck, M.D.. Whitlock has been fine when he has been healthy. (expecting 2021 again was nuts)

 

The pitching dropped off. But ultimately, a team that mashed their way around their problems simply didn't this year. And it really came down to getting "poor middle infield" level production out of freaking RF and 1B.

 

Yup.

 

Honest question: do we make the playoffs, if Bogey, JD, Nate & Kike give us close to what we expected?

 

They were all keys to our 2021 success and only JD is post-prime.

[Bellhorn04]

Yup.

 

Honest question: do we make the playoffs, if Bogey, JD, Nate & Kike give us close to what we expected?

 

They were all keys to our 2021 success and only JD is post-prime.

 

Nate's disappointing 2022 performance and health has been a big problem.

 

As to your question, you can probably figure it out with WAR.

[Hugh2]

Obviously it would like great if the Sox make a big more to bolster the rotation, but only the smaller side of things it will be interesting to see if the Paxton situation pays off next year.

[Bellhorn04]

Obviously it would like great if the Sox make a big more to bolster the rotation, but only the smaller side of things it will be interesting to see if the Paxton situation pays off next year.

 

Paxton would certainly be a bonus.

[notin]

The catastrophic losses were at 1B/RF. Both of them were dicey ex ante, though Dalbec offered some hope (offset a bit by the Red Sox seeing his performance last year and deciding they needed to trade for Kyle Schwarber).

 

Eovaldi's injury, form was bad. Pivetta has been - well, typical Pivetta. His value lies in taking the ball. Agreed on Tanner Houck, M.D.. Whitlock has been fine when he has been healthy. (expecting 2021 again was nuts)

 

The pitching dropped off. But ultimately, a team that mashed their way around their problems simply didn't this year. And it really came down to getting "poor middle infield" level production out of freaking RF and 1B.

 

One of the biggest issues is the anticipated 5 man rotation has only started 66 out of 122 games, which has got to be among the lowest totals in MLB.

 

Bloom needed to do more to backfill the loss of Sale once Sale was able to disclose his rib injury…

[Hugh2]

Paxton would certainly be a bonus.

 

I just read that the way his contract is structured it's the same cap hit whether or not the Sox pick up his option so why not? I wouldn't pencil him into one of the starting 5 but I'd roll the dice and see how he looks next year. You can never have enough pitching.

[notin]

The catastrophic losses were at 1B/RF. Both of them were dicey ex ante, though Dalbec offered some hope (offset a bit by the Red Sox seeing his performance last year and deciding they needed to trade for Kyle Schwarber).

 

Eovaldi's injury, form was bad. Pivetta has been - well, typical Pivetta. His value lies in taking the ball. Agreed on Tanner Houck, M.D.. Whitlock has been fine when he has been healthy. (expecting 2021 again was nuts)

 

The pitching dropped off. But ultimately, a team that mashed their way around their problems simply didn't this year. And it really came down to getting "poor middle infield" level production out of freaking RF and 1B.

 

I also think they have up on Shaw way too early. 19 PAs?

 

Granted he was 0 for 19. But he at least players a serviceable 1b. Plan C in Cordero was a big flop there…

[sk7326]

Yup.

 

Honest question: do we make the playoffs, if Bogey, JD, Nate & Kike give us close to what we expected?

 

They were all keys to our 2021 success and only JD is post-prime.

 

I think you only really needed Nate and Kike to hit. Bogaerts has not been great - but he has been well within his career range. Since he's become a good player, some years the ball goes over the fence, some years less so. But there are plenty of doubles and such - he's going to be a 4-5 win player again no problem. And it would look a lot better if Story were good.

 

Would this have assured the Red Sox make the playoffs? Maybe. It would still have been a close call with how Seattle has played. And again, Baltimore being legitimately decent matters quite a bit here.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Yup.

 

Honest question: do we make the playoffs, if Bogey, JD, Nate & Kike give us close to what we expected?

 

They were all keys to our 2021 success and only JD is post-prime.

 

The utter lack of longball and mound durability were huge deficits in '22.

 

The '21 Sox had six 20-plus homer hitters (Bogey, JD, Kike, Dalbec, Renfroe and Raffy) and only Devers has repeated -- and even his production is down from last year. Losing all that power, along with the boost of Schwarber, the NL's HR leader, crushed run production.

 

Eovaldi has only made 18 starts -- and that's tied for second with Hill behind Pivetta's team-high 25. For perspective, Houston has five starters with more than 18 starts, while Cleveland and New York have four guys with at least 21. Last year's Sox had five pitchers make 22 or more starts, three with at least 30.

 

There may be a month to go, but we all know the only lock to take a regular turn will still be Pivetta... all of which has led to bullpen burnout -- and revealed faulty planning from management and the front office for insufficient depth.

[sk7326]

I also think they have up on Shaw way too early. 19 PAs?

 

Granted he was 0 for 19. But he at least players a serviceable 1b. Plan C in Cordero was a big flop there…

 

That is possible.

 

The way I look at it, in 2021 the Red Sox counted on Dalbec and Cordero - they liked that so much they traded for Schwarber. So their 2022 plan was ... Dalbec and Cordero??? "medicore 1B/DH" is one of the easiest things to find on the street in baseball. And yes, Travis Shaw was a better bet to achieve that than Dalbec and Franchy.

[moonslav59]

Paxton would certainly be a bonus.

 

There were hopes Paxton would arrive in time, this year, to give us a final push. Now, assuming we take the $13M x 2 option, we will be essentially be paying him $32M/2, which is about Nate money but for half the years.

 

I think the guy can be a big help, but if we count on anything from Sale or Paxton, next year, we are setting ourselves up for something unpleasant. We need a solid #1 or 2, or IMO, we will be punting 2023 away. Maybe we can get lucky, but even if Paxton and Sale come back strong, next year, having an ace doesn't cause any sort of bottleneck. It would likely mean Houck & Whitlock stay in the pen and Pivetta becomes our 4th or 5th starter, not our 2 or 3.

[notin]

The utter lack of longball and mound durability were huge deficits in '22.

 

The '21 Sox had six 20-plus homer hitters (Bogey, JD, Kike, Dalbec, Renfroe and Raffy) and only Devers has repeated -- and even his production is down from last year. Losing all that power, along with the boost of Schwarber, the NL's HR leader, crushed run production.

 

Eovaldi has only made 18 starts -- and that's tied for second with Hill behind Pivetta's team-high 25. For perspective, Houston has five starters with more than 18 starts, while Cleveland and New York have four guys with at least 21. Last year's Sox had five pitchers make 22 or more starts, three with at least 30.

 

There may be a month to go, but we all know the only lock to take a regular turn will still be Pivetta... all of which has led to bullpen burnout -- and revealed faulty planning from management and the front office for insufficient depth.

 

Five of those six hitters are back, but three of them are doing worse than last season (using OPS+ as a metric). Bogaerts is pretty much the same, and Devers, complete with slump, is doing better…

[Bellhorn04]

I just read that the way his contract is structured it's the same cap hit whether or not the Sox pick up his option so why not? I wouldn't pencil him into one of the starting 5 but I'd roll the dice and see how he looks next year. You can never have enough pitching.

 

100%.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Five of those six hitters are back, but three of them are doing worse than last season (using OPS+ as a metric). Bogaerts is pretty much the same, and Devers, complete with slump, is doing better…

 

But the fact that balls aren't leaving the yard has been one of the many contributing factors for Boston's mediocrity. Maybe the HR slumpage is just an outlier, happening for everyone the same season, and all these guys will add another 10 feet next year to overcome this contagious warning track power.

 

At the beginning of the season, we suspected diminishing distances on MLB rumored dead balls, but it hasn't affected clubs like the Yankees. Lately, they're all-or-nothing offense has exposed the greatest team in the history of the first half of this year, and bodes badly; in this century, only one AL team below the league average in team hits has won the World Series -- the '05 White Sox.

[moonslav59]

Five of those six hitters are back, but three of them are doing worse than last season (using OPS+ as a metric). Bogaerts is pretty much the same, and Devers, complete with slump, is doing better…

 

The OPS+ numbers are good ones to use, as they factor in the league wide decline in OPS from 2021 to 2022. Sorry, if this is too complicated or fancy for the anti-metric crowd, but here is a look at the OPS+ disparities from 2021 to 2022 (Note the PA differentials, as well, and the 2022 season is not over.)

 

Listed in order of most PAs in 2021:

 

1. 134 Devers (664)>149 (458 #3))

2. 128 JD M (634)> 117 (450 #4)

3. 107 Dugo (604)> 102 (480 #2)

4. 129 Bogey (603)> 126 (487 #1

5. 108 Kike (585)> 72 (259 #9)

6. (Renfroe: see below)

7. 77 Vazquez (498)> 110 (318 #6)

8. 107 Dalbec (453)> 78 (317 #7)

9. (Marwin: see below)

10. 103 Arroyo (181)> 109 (208 #11)

11. 98 Plawecki (173)> 41 (146 #13)

12. (Schwarber: see below)

13. 34 Cordero (136)> 89 (245 #10)

14. (Santana: see below)

15. 53 Duran (112)> 81 (206 #12)

16 & 18. (Chavis & Iggy: see below)

16. 70 Arauz (75)>> -100 (12 #22)

19. 120 Shaw (48)> -100 (19 #21)

 

Replaced Players: (First number is PA Ranking in 2021)

5. 114 Renfroe (572)>> 61 JBJ (290 #8)

8. 53 Marwin (271)>> 97 Story (342 #5)

11. 155 Schwarber (168)>> 158 Refsnyder (116 #14)

13. 58 Santana (127)>>121 Pham (76 #15.) & 73 Hosmer (45 #16)

15. 43 Chavis (82)>>-6 Sanchez (44 #17)

17. 144 Iggy (64)>> 18 Downs (41 #18)

[moonslav59]

The OPS+ numbers are good ones to use, as they factor in the league wide decline in OPS from 2021 to 2022. Sorry, if this is too complicated or fancy for the anti-metric crowd, but here is a look at the OPS+ disparities from 2021 to 2022 (Note the PA differentials, as well, and the 2022 season is not over.)

 

Listed in order of most PAs in 2021:

 

1. 134 Devers (664)>149 (458 #3))

2. 128 JD M (634)> 117 (450 #4)

3. 107 Dugo (604)> 102 (480 #2)

4. 129 Bogey (603)> 126 (487 #1

5. 108 Kike (585)> 72 (259 #9)

6. (Renfroe: see below)

7. 77 Vazquez (498)> 110 (318 #6)

8. 107 Dalbec (453)> 78 (317 #7)

9. (Marwin: see below)

10. 103 Arroyo (181)> 109 (208 #11)

11. 98 Plawecki (173)> 41 (146 #13)

12. (Schwarber: see below)

13. 34 Cordero (136)> 89 (245 #10)

14. (Santana: see below)

15. 53 Duran (112)> 81 (206 #12)

16 & 18. (Chavis & Iggy: see below)

16. 70 Arauz (75)>> -100 (12 #22)

19. 120 Shaw (48)> -100 (19 #21)

 

Replaced Players: (First number is PA Ranking in 2021)

5. 114 Renfroe (572)>> 61 JBJ (290 #8)

8. 53 Marwin (271)>> 97 Story (342 #5)

11. 155 Schwarber (168)>> 158 Refsnyder (116 #14)

13. 58 Santana (127)>>121 Pham (76 #15.) & 73 Hosmer (45 #16)

15. 43 Chavis (82)>>-6 Sanchez (44 #17)

17. 144 Iggy (64)>> 18 Downs (41 #18)

 

Only 1 of our top 5 returning vets improved, and Devers is now seriously slumping.

Only 3 of our top 9 returning vets improved (Devers, Vaz and Arroyo)

Only 5 of our top returning 13 vets improved.

So, 5-8 with returning vets.

 

We lost bigtime in RF (Renfroe to JBJ).

We gained on Story replacing Marwin, Chavis and Iggy at 2B

We probably about broke even on Refsnyder, Pham & Hosmer replacing Schwarber & Santana in the OF, 1B and DH.

So, maybe 1-1-1 at the replacement positions.

 

6-9-1 overall - not counting pitching.