2022 Starting Rotation Thread

[Old Red]

Houck should be a starting pitcher. There is too much of this " third time through the order" business. Not sure about Whitlock . Could he be the closer? Maybe.

 

With Sale out for who knows how long Houck may be next man up.

[moonslav59]

Houck should be a starting pitcher. There is too much of this " third time through the order" business. Not sure about Whitlock . Could he be the closer? Maybe.

 

I like Whitlock as a starter better, and it's not about the third time through thing.

 

Also, many of today's starters have awful 3rd time through numbers, and they still start.

 

I like Houck as our closer more than Whitlock, so that's what tips the balance for me.

 

Our pen looks so weak, I hate to move either of them, but somehow Cora has worked magic with what little he has had in the pen for years. I'm not sure if that can continue.

 

If Wacha can do well out of the pen, maybe in a role like Whitlock had, last year, our opening day rotation might look like this:

 

1. Eovaldi

2. Pivetta

3. Houck

4. Whitlock

5. Hill

 

That's a nice starting 5, IMO.

 

When and if Sale and Paxton join the team, we'd have to decide who moves to the pen.

 

[Old Red]

The “third time through the order” business has the added benefit of reducing injuries. This is especially important for younger pitchers like Houck where the ability to pitch 150 to 180 IP against MLB hitters is in question…

 

The third time through the order business is not to prevent injuries, but nothing more than analytics. Houck has been around long enough now, so time to take the kid gloves off, and see what he can do.

[Old Red]

I like Whitlock as a starter better, and it's not about the third time through thing.

 

Also, many of today's starters have awful 3rd time through numbers, and they still start.

 

I like Houck as our closer more than Whitlock, so that's what tips the balance for me.

 

Our pen looks so weak, I hate to move either of them, but somehow Cora has worked magic with what little he has had in the pen for years. I'm not sure if that can continue.

 

If Wacha can do well out of the pen, maybe in a role like Whitlock had, last year, our opening day rotation might look like this:

 

1. Eovaldi

2. Pivetta

3. Houck

4. Whitlock

5. Hill

 

That's a nice starting 5, IMO.

 

When and if Sale and Paxton join the team, we'd have to decide who moves to the pen.

 

 

Have you seen Whitlock as a starter? Who knows if he can even do it, or even be as good as last year if he doesn’t. If he does great, but i don’t think you can expect it. Houck has more experience as a starter, so I would go with him first. Cora’s decision, so we’ll see what happens.

[mvp 78]

Houck should be a starting pitcher. There is too much of this " third time through the order" business. Not sure about Whitlock . Could he be the closer? Maybe.

 

Old man screams at cloud.

[moonslav59]

Most publications actually rate Duran pretty high. It’s the fans who say “he didn’t set the world on fire in 107 plate appearances!!” who are down on him…

 

BTV has...

 

Duran at 16.8 (down from over 20, last summer)

 

Dalbec at 13.5

 

Downs at 6.8 (way down from last year)

 

Others:

55.4 Mayer

52.4 Casas

48.8 Houck

37.7 Yorke

16.6 Whitlock

10.3 Bello

7.6 Jordan

6.0 Gonzalez

5 Lugo & Jimenez

4 Bleis, Winckowski, Walter, Mata

3 Hamilton, McDonough, Groome, Bonaci, Crawford, R Hernandez

2 Murphy, Seabold, Decker & Hickey

 

FYI other team's notable BTV values

 

OAK

-8.6 Piscotty/ -4.2 Andrus (salary dump offsets)

45.2 Soderstrom C prospect

39.6 Montas (2 years of control)

27.8 Langeliers C prospect

14.1 Manaea SP (1 yr)

7.5 Pache OF (RHB w 6 yrs)

1.1 Trivino RP (3 yrs)

 

CIN

-32.5 Moustakas 2B/ -8.3 Akiyama OF & LHB(Salary dump offset)

66.0 Castillo SP (2 yrs)

44.4 Mahle SP (2 yrs)

19.5 Sims RHP (3 yrs) Probably not being offered

15.4 Warren RHP (6 yrs) Probably not being offered

 

MIA

75.3 Alcantara SP prospect (6 yrs)

57.1 Lopes SP (3 yrs)

20.9 Sanchez SP (6 yrs)

10.0 Luzardo SP (5 yrs)

8.8 Stallings C (3 yrs) Just traded for him, so not likely available

6.1 de la Cruz OF (RHB and 6 yrs)

4.4 Bleier RHP (1 yr)

 

If these values are close, and most trades, so far have shown them to be fairly accurate, who do you mix and match with?

[mvp 78]

Have you seen Whitlock as a starter? Who knows if he can even do it, or even be as good as last year if he doesn’t. If he does great, but i don’t think you can expect it. Houck has more experience as a starter, so I would go with him first. Cora’s decision, so we’ll see what happens.

 

Houck only has two pitches FB/slider. Whitlock has three pitches FB/slider/change. Generally, pitchers with a better variety of pitches are better suited for starters than a guy who only has 2 pitches.

[moonslav59]

Have you seen Whitlock as a starter? Who knows if he can even do it, or even be as good as last year if he doesn’t. If he does great, but i don’t think you can expect it. Houck has more experience as a starter, so I would go with him first. Cora’s decision, so we’ll see what happens.

 

No. I have not seen him as a starter, but I've seen his nast stuff vs some top hitters in MLB.

 

Look, I've said from day one, I want Houck and Whitlock to stay in the pen, where they have some success, already.

 

With Sale hurt and Bloom locked into save the prospects mode, I'm reaching for POSSIBLR alternatives.

 

Have you seen Seabold, Winckowski and Crawford start? Are they better options?

 

I'm fine with choosing Houck over Whitlock, but I like Houck as a closer better, too, and right now, the pen scares me as much as Sale going on the IL.

[Old Red]

Houck only has two pitches FB/slider. Whitlock has three pitches FB/slider/change. Generally, pitchers with a better variety of pitches are better suited for starters than a guy who only has 2 pitches.

 

I already said earlier that Houck needed another pitch along with consistency to be a good starter. Nobody has seen Whitlock as a stater, and just expect him to pitch like last year. After only one year in the majors I don’t think you can count on that.

[Old Red]

No. I have not seen him as a starter, but I've seen his nast stuff vs some top hitters in MLB.

 

Look, I've said from day one, I want Houck and Whitlock to stay in the pen, where they have some success, already.

 

With Sale hurt and Bloom locked into save the prospects mode, I'm reaching for POSSIBLR alternatives.

 

Have you seen Seabold, Winckowski and Crawford start? Are they better options?

 

I'm fine with choosing Houck over Whitlock, but I like Houck as a closer better, too, and right now, the pen scares me as much as Sale going on the IL.

 

You’ve seen his stuff for 2 innings at a time, and for the most part 2-3 days in between appearances, so how can you make that judgement? That’s the problem that there aren’t lots of options let alone good ones.

[vegasbob]

Keep in mind there are now 7+- nine inning doubleheaders baked into the schedule requiring further depth in either/both starters and/or the BP. Remember BP games.

 

A true premium in 2022 on pitching depth , one thing the Sox are definitely lacking . Totally discounting Sale's new injury, and any yet to follow, when your pitching level is lifted by adding Rich Hill or the other barely recognizable guys to the roster , you have to question if this team will compete well OR is this yet another year in a 5 year drill to fully remake the team (2018-2023) ? Move Mookie, get rid of Price's and Pedey's dead money contracts, no plays for big money FA's in '21 nor '22, let Bogey move on, finish up JDM's contract, etc.

 

There may be more going on here than meets the immediate twin optical device survey.

[moonslav59]

I already said earlier that Houck needed another pitch along with consistency to be a good starter. Nobody has seen Whitlock as a stater, and just expect him to pitch like last year. After only one year in the majors I don’t think you can count on that.

 

Who has said he's a lock to be even good, let alone as good as 2021?

 

He showed nasty stuff and self confidence. He's very promising.

 

Nobody know what might happen, if he has a tough streak.

 

I'm just glad we have him and am hoping he continues to do well.

 

Nobody is a lock on doing well in 2022. Eovaldi is the closest we have, but even he has significant questions.

[moonslav59]

You’ve seen his stuff for 2 innings at a time, and for the most part 2-3 days in between appearances, so how can you make that judgement? That’s the problem that there aren’t lots of options let alone good ones.

 

I'm not making a judgement: I'm making an educated guess based on what I have seen and know.

 

Houck has not started all that many games, and you, yourself, have stated how inconsistent he has been.

 

I've said it's a close call.

 

Do you think it's an obvious choice: Houck over Whitlock as a starter?

 

How can "you" make that judgement?

 

We are all just giving our opinions. Nobody is acting like a know-it-all.

 

[moonslav59]

Keep in mind there are now 7+- nine inning doubleheaders baked into the schedule requiring further depth in either/both starters and/or the BP. Remember BP games.

 

A true premium in 2022 on pitching depth , one thing the Sox are definitely lacking . Totally discounting Sale's new injury, and any yet to follow, when your pitching level is lifted by adding Rich Hill or the other barely recognizable guys to the roster , you have to question if this team will compete well OR is this yet another year in a 5 year drill to fully remake the team (2018-2023) ? Move Mookie, get rid of Price's and Pedey's dead money contracts, no plays for big money FA's in '21 nor '22, let Bogey move on, finish up JDM's contract, etc.

 

There may be more going on here than meets the immediate twin optical device survey.

 

I thought they did away with 7 inning Doubleheaders.

[Old Red]

Who has said he's a lock to be even good, let alone as good as 2021?

 

He showed nasty stuff and self confidence. He's very promising.

 

Nobody know what might happen, if he has a tough streak.

 

I'm just glad we have him and am hoping he continues to do well.

 

Nobody is a lock on doing well in 2022. Eovaldi is the closest we have, but even he has significant questions.

 

Nobody said Whitlock is a lock to be good, but there has been all kinds of putting him in the rotation, and I’m just wondering based on what. One good year in the big leagues? Yes he is promising based on last year, but like I keep saying it’s only been one year.

[dgalehouse]

I already said earlier that Houck needed another pitch along with consistency to be a good starter. Nobody has seen Whitlock as a stater, and just expect him to pitch like last year. After only one year in the majors I don’t think you can count on that.

 

Old Red , If you posted that today was Wednesday ; someone would say ," Wrong , it's Thursday in Australia." We are lucky to have some " experts" to clarify things for us.

[vegasbob]

I thought they did away with 7 inning Doubleheaders.

 

MLB did away with 7 inning games. Read it again, there will be 7 programmed NINE inning Doubleheaders ading to the stress on starting pitching and BPs

[Old Red]

I'm not making a judgement: I'm making an educated guess based on what I have seen and know.

 

Houck has not started all that many games, and you, yourself, have stated how inconsistent he has been.

 

I've said it's a close call.

 

Do you think it's an obvious choice: Houck over Whitlock as a starter?

 

How can "you" make that judgement?

 

We are all just giving our opinions. Nobody is acting like a know-it-all.

 

 

I’m just basing my judgement on how many starts both have had in the Big Leagues, and just giving my opinion like you are. Sorry it doesn’t match yours. Like I said earlier we’ll see what Cora does.

[moonslav59]

Nobody said Whitlock is a lock to be good, but there has been all kinds of putting him in the rotation, and I’m just wondering based on what. One good year in the big leagues? Yes he is promising based on last year, but like I keep saying it’s only been one year.

 

Houck had 4 starts in 2020. Does that make him a clearer choice than Whitlock?

 

Yes, Houck has 13 GS'd in the bigs. That's a big plus in his favor, but Whitlock has some things in his favor, too- like a decent and proven 3rd pitch. It's a close call, right?

 

Career numbers

 

Houck

86 IP (less than 13 IP more than Whitlock)

163 ERA+

2.71 FIP (slightly better than Whitlock)

1.08 WHIP

.580 OPS against (Better than Whitlock)

Worse minor league numbers (4.17 ERA/1.39 WHIP)

 

Whitlock

73.1 IP

241 ERA+ (almost 80 points better than Houck)

2.84 FIP

1.05 WHIP (slightly better than Houck)

.631 OPS against

Better minor league numbers (2.41 ERA/1.16 WHIP)

 

Do you at least think it's a close call, and if not why not?

 

[moonslav59]

I’m just basing my judgement on how many starts both have had in the Big Leagues, and just giving my opinion like you are. Sorry it doesn’t match yours. Like I said earlier we’ll see what Cora does.

 

I'm fine with it not matching my opinion, and I've said I'm fine with the Houck choice. I've given my reasons why I prefer Whitlock, and I respect the argument of GS'd experience working in Houck's favor.

 

Will you be terribly upset, if Cora chooses Whitlock over Houck?

 

It may ultimately come down to who looks better in ST'ing and most ready by the time a 5th starter is needed. Hell, someone else might get hurt and both start.

[notin]

The third time through the order business is not to prevent injuries, but nothing more than analytics. Houck has been around long enough now, so time to take the kid gloves off, and see what he can do.

 

Right, because it negates pitch counts. Notice I called it an “added benefit,” meaning not the primary reason…

[moonslav59]

MLB did away with 7 inning games. Read it again, there will be 7 programmed NINE inning Doubleheaders ading to the stress on starting pitching and BPs

 

Sorry, my eyesight is toast. I thought it said 7+ inning DH's. My bad.

 

My new glasses are worse than I had B4. Going back to the doc, soon.

 

Sorry.

[moonslav59]

Right, because it negates pitch counts. Notice I called it an “added benefit,” meaning not the primary reason…

 

Interesting note: pitches thrown in 2021:

 

1150 Whitlock

 

1149 Houck

[moonslav59]

Interesting note: pitches thrown in 2021:

 

1150 Whitlock

 

1149 Houck

 

Pitches per PA

 

3.86 Whitlock

4.02 Houck

[Old Red]

Right, because it negates pitch counts. Notice I called it an “added benefit,” meaning not the primary reason…

 

I don’t think it’s any reason. It may be a benefit, but analytics is not even thinking about injury prevention.

[Old Red]

I'm fine with it not matching my opinion, and I've said I'm fine with the Houck choice. I've given my reasons why I prefer Whitlock, and I respect the argument of GS'd experience working in Houck's favor.

 

Will you be terribly upset, if Cora chooses Whitlock over Houck?

 

It may ultimately come down to who looks better in ST'ing and most ready by the time a 5th starter is needed. Hell, someone else might get hurt and both start.

Not terribly upset, but I was counting on Whitlock being the closer, or at the very least 7-8 innings guy, and even that would be expecting a lot from him as young, and inexperienced he is.

[Old Red]

Houck had 4 starts in 2020. Does that make him a clearer choice than Whitlock?

 

Yes, Houck has 13 GS'd in the bigs. That's a big plus in his favor, but Whitlock has some things in his favor, too- like a decent and proven 3rd pitch. It's a close call, right?

 

Career numbers

 

Houck

86 IP (less than 13 IP more than Whitlock)

163 ERA+

2.71 FIP (slightly better than Whitlock)

1.08 WHIP

.580 OPS against (Better than Whitlock)

Worse minor league numbers (4.17 ERA/1.39 WHIP)

 

Whitlock

73.1 IP

241 ERA+ (almost 80 points better than Houck)

2.84 FIP

1.05 WHIP (slightly better than Houck)

.631 OPS against

Better minor league numbers (2.41 ERA/1.16 WHIP)

 

Do you at least think it's a close call, and if not why not?

 

 

Yes it is a close call, and honestly I thought Houck had pitched more innings than that.

[vegasbob]

Sorry, my eyesight is toast. I thought it said 7+ inning DH's. My bad.

 

My new glasses are worse than I had B4. Going back to the doc, soon.

 

Sorry.

 

No problem, always enjoy and appreciate your well documented insights

[moonslav59]

Yes it is a close call, and honestly I thought Houck had pitched more innings than that.

 

You might want to know Whitlock is 18 days older than Houck, so maybe your "as young and inexperienced" statement needs revising, too.

 

On "experience," Houck has 13 more innings in the bigs.

 

Minors:

205 Whitlock

270 Houck

 

Not a big difference there, either, but still significant.

 

[Old Red]

You might want to know Whitlock is 18 days older than Houck, so maybe your "as young and inexperienced" statement needs revising, too.

 

On "experience," Houck has 13 more innings in the bigs.

 

Minors:

205 Whitlock

270 Houck

 

Not a big difference there, either, but still significant.

 

 

We’ll just for you I will revise my young, and inexperienced statement, because for some reason I thought Houck had been around for 3-4 years. I don’t know why, but I did. I still though would rather see Whitlock in the pen in the late innings, and that’s the biggest reason I would put Houck in the rotation over Him.