A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[iortiz]

Seems like Sale and Shwarber are close to join the team. Good!

[moonslav59]

Although this is the 2021 thread, here' my peak at the 2022 forty man roster.

 

Blue= My projected 40 man roster

Free Agents:

ERod

Ottavino

Marwin

Santana

 

Options:

Keep-

Vaz $7M

Maybe-

Perez $6M

Bye-bye-

Richards $10M

Andriese $3.5M

 

Opt Out/Mutual option:

JD Martinez

Schwarber (mutual option $11.5M/$3M buy out)

 

For sure:

Bogaerts

Barnes

Sale

Devers

Brasier

Eovaldi

Taylor

DHern

Eovaldi

Plawecki (last arb)

Verdugo

P Valdez

Pivetta

Arroyo

Houck

Bazardo

Mata

Groome

Wong

Seabold

Whitlock

Renfroe

Kike

Cordero

Sawamura

Ro Hernandez

Duran

Bubble:

Rosario

Potts

Rios

Robles

A Davis

Arauz

 

Rule 5:

Jecorrah Arnold

Brayan Bello

Cole Brannen

Gary Calvo

Marco Cardoso

Pedro Castellanos

Felix Cepeda

Kole Cottam

Kutter Crawford

Ricardo Cubillan

Osvaldo De La Rosa

Tyler Dearden

Jonathan Diaz

Danny Diaz

Jeter Downs

Tyler Esplin

Durbin Feltman

Ryan Fernandez

Ryan Fitzgerald

Antoni Flores

Frank German

Rio Gomez

Devlin Granberg

Gilberto Jimenez

Jose Larez

Dominic LoBrutto

Bryan Lucas

Charlie Madden

Alan Marrero

Elih Marrero

Joan Martinez

Alexander Montero

Oddanier Mosqueda

Brendan Nail

Brett Netzer

Tanner Nishioka

Kaleb Ort

Yusniel Padron-Artiles

Aaron Perry

Antonio Police

AJ Politi

Ceddanne Rafaela

Oscar Rangel

Tyreque Reed

Jesus Rosillo

Yasel Santana

Victor Santos

Zach Schellinger

John Schreiber

Gregori Segovia

Chase Shugart

Miguel Suero

Jake Thompson

Thaddeus Ward

Grant Williams

Josh Winckowski

 

FA:

SP'er

RP'er

1B

Utility

 

That's 38 Total:the next 2 can be FA signings, extra rule 5's or bubble players.

[oldtimer]

Dalbec will very likely be on the 2022 40 man roster, unless he is traded.

 

He will not be DFA'd.

 

Maybe we go for a FA first baseman, although that might block Casas. Dalbec is questionable in my mind for 2022.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Maybe we go for a FA first baseman

 

I was looking over the free agent list for 1b. They would need to sign a 1b for one year and that guy isn't easy to find, i.e., a player who would accept a one year contract. It would need to be one year because Casas should be ready in 2023. Moreland is a free agent, but he isn't much better than a piece of garbage like Dalbec (he currently has an 88 OPS+) and will be one year older in 2022. Moreland might be done.

 

If JD doesn't opt out, the decision is made for the Red Sox: JD is the DH and hopefully Kyle S. can settle in at 1b. In that scenario, Dalbec might get deactivated if the Red Sox need the roster space. The Red Sox seem to like Dalbec, though, more than you would expect and he can play some 3b, increasing his versatility. I think the Red Sox would try to keep Dalbec on the 40 man and have him play in AAA next year. If Dalbec could learn how to work counts and get walks, he could revive his career. Unfortunately, Doofy Dalbec walked once in the entire month of July (not an exaggeration).

 

If JD Martinez opts out and the Red Sox decide Kyle S. doesn't belong at 1b and move him to DH instead, the Red Sox would need to find a starting 1b for one year. They could try to make a trade for J.Anguiliar who is signed through 2022. A move like that would make a ton of sense.

Edited August 2, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[moonslav59]

Maybe we go for a FA first baseman, although that might block Casas. Dalbec is questionable in my mind for 2022.

 

Every year, decent 1Bmen sign one year deals.

 

That's what we may do, this winter, assuming Schwarber is not around or sucked at 1B, this season.

[d-money]

Nice to see a player care. Xander spoke ok Saturday about needing a win and team flopped on sunday.

[Bellhorn04]

Can we please see at least one of these scores hold up tonight?

[Bellhorn04]

Nice to see a player care. Xander spoke ok Saturday about needing a win and team flopped on sunday.

 

Reminds me of the great line from Earl Weaver. Weaver said he didn't believe in team meetings, because if you have a meeting and go out and lose again, what do you do then?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Reminds me of the great line from Earl Weaver. Weaver said he didn't believe in team meetings, because if you have a meeting and go out and lose again, what do you do then?

 

Drink. I'm half-serious; the next meeting is at the hotel bar and only half-serious... until the second round (then it's a quarter-serious).

 

It's like being mired in a team-wide batting slump, so the manager cancels BP before the next game.

[moonslav59]

Can we please see at least one of these scores hold up tonight?

 

Could be the best night for the Sox in quite a while!

[harmony]

Could be the best night for the Sox in quite a while!

With Monday's win over the Tampa Bay Rays, the 57-50 (.533) Seattle Mariners move to 14-8 (.636) against AL East teams while AL West teams improve to 64-57 (.529) against AL East teams.

[moonslav59]

Updated Standings

 

64-42 HOU

64-43 TBR

63-44 BOS (-1.0 ALE/-1.5 AL best record)

62-44 CWS

60-47 OAK (-4.5 ALW/ leader in 2nd WC)

 

56-49 NYY (-7.5 ALE/ -3.0 WC)

57-50 SEA (-7.5 ALW/ -3.0 WC)

54-40 TOR (-8.0 ALE/ -4.0 WC)

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

with monday's win over the tampa bay rays, the 57-50 (.533) seattle mariners move to 14-8 (.636) against al east teams while al west teams improve to 64-57 (.529) against al east teams.

 

sss

[Nick]

Seems like Sale and Shwarber are close to join the team. Good!

 

We need them both.

 

The lineup will be fine with Shwarber plugged into 1B.

 

Sox needs to stay close to the Rays for next couple of weeks.

[oldtimer]

We need them both.

 

The lineup will be fine with Shwarber plugged into 1B.

 

Sox needs to stay close to the Rays for next couple of weeks.

 

The word was that they will meet tomorrow to determine how to handle Schwaber's rehab assignment. Sounds like the earliest we could see him is August 10th. i would first use him to rest JDM unless there is a significant improvement in Martinez play in the interim.

[Bellhorn04]

The word was that they will meet tomorrow to determine how to handle Schwaber's rehab assignment. Sounds like the earliest we could see him is August 10th. i would first use him to rest JDM unless there is a significant improvement in Martinez play in the interim.

 

I expect that significant improvement from JDM.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Realistic thread Part Ways...

 

Three True Outcomes: Division title, Wild Card game, miss playoffs.

 

What's your prediction with 55 games left? Here's one: the boost from Schwarber may help the offense more than Sale winning games (but his presence will inspire others on the staff to improve). On the mound, Houck will be more effective than Sale, in about the same amount of innings. Sox go 32-23, win WC game, lose ALDS...

[Bellhorn04]

Realistic thread Part Ways...

 

Three True Outcomes: Division title, Wild Card game, miss playoffs.

 

What's your prediction with 55 games left? Here's one: the boost from Schwarber may help the offense more than Sale winning games (but his presence will inspire others on the staff to improve). On the mound, Houck will be more effective than Sale, in about the same amount of innings. Sox go 32-23, win WC game, lose ALDS...

 

Right on Nostradamus!

[harmony]

sss

FWIW the sample size for the AL West's 64-57 record against the AL East is larger than the sample size for the current Red Sox record of 63-44.

 

Perhaps the smaller sample carries less significance.

 

Or not.

[moonslav59]

Realistic thread Part Ways...

 

Three True Outcomes: Division title, Wild Card game, miss playoffs.

 

What's your prediction with 55 games left? Here's one: the boost from Schwarber may help the offense more than Sale winning games (but his presence will inspire others on the staff to improve). On the mound, Houck will be more effective than Sale, in about the same amount of innings. Sox go 32-23, win WC game, lose ALDS...

 

I predict we win the ALE and lose to Houston in the ALDS or ALCS, but will beat the CWS, if we face them first. WC winners will be TBR and OAK.

 

Yanks spent a chunk of their farm and miss out. Cashman and Boone get canned, which is bad news for the Sox.

[moonslav59]

FWIW the sample size for the AL West's 64-57 record against the AL East is larger than the sample size for the current Red Sox record of 63-44.

 

Perhaps the smaller sample carries less significance.

 

Or not.

 

110 games is still rather small but is significant.

 

That doesn’t mean luck still plays no role.

 

Or yes.

[Kimmi]

There is an ebb and flow, but your starters are gassed. Sale coming back could be a mixed bag. Same with Houck. Right now you have two reinforcements coming which could help right the ship.

 

The starters may be a little gassed. I am thinking with Sale and Houck on the team, Cora will find a way to give the starters more rest.

 

That said, to me, while the pitching has not been great, the offense is what needs to get it going. The Sox scored 141 runs in June, but only 118 runs in July. At the same time, the pitching staff allowed 138 runs in June, but only 117 runs in July. The pitchers are doing what they do, pitching so-so most of the time but keeping the offense in the game. The offense has not been coming through.

[vegasbob]

Realistic thread Part Ways...

 

Three True Outcomes: Division title, Wild Card game, miss playoffs.

 

What's your prediction with 55 games left? Here's one: the boost from Schwarber may help the offense more than Sale winning games (but his presence will inspire others on the staff to improve). On the mound, Houck will be more effective than Sale, in about the same amount of innings. Sox go 32-23, win WC game, lose ALDS...

 

Keep in mind that if Sale does pitch on any day in the Rays series, there will be 39 to 40 remaining games from then, so Sale gets maybe 8 starts if his arm and shoulder hold up. Maybe 40-50 innings total. Definitely a boost over any of Perez or Richards , and same for Houck. I do think they need to see if Houck can get to the 5-6 inning mark as a precursor to 2022. Otherwise point to BP for '22.

 

Slugger Schwarber , if he's back on the 10th gets about 200 PA's at max, maybe 50 hits . Better than Dalbec or the late Chavis would have done . You can only hope he energizes the offense like Rizzo may have done for NYY. Forgetting Rizzo, and discounting Schwarber's potential contributions, Bloom basically traded for a guy that can't play , needs to learn a new position and may not be real maneuverable in the midst of a pennant race. We'll see how that plays out.

 

Prediction, Sox go 29-26 and settle for WC , which they lose in the 9th inning despite a 3 run lead when Barnes walks the bases full and then gives up a Pesky pole GS.

[Bellhorn04]

^^^ Big Barnes fan LOL

[Kimmi]

It's still not time to push the panic button fellas as ugly this could look like lately.

 

We are still holding one of the best records in baseball, and that is a fact.

 

Help is on its way and some players won't keep sucking as they do now. Also, I do not expect leaving so many LOBs per game as we did lately. We have natural clutch hitters.

 

At Offense Arroyo and Shwarber will join the team. By only adding them, this will boost the offense enormously. JD won't keep sucking. I'm still high on Duran, Kid will hit. Also I would call Muñoz for Dalbec.

 

At pitching, Houck will take a spot. Sale just pitched 81 pitches, so he is close to join the team as well. Pivetta and Rodriguez will keep us in games most of the times. Realistically we won't suck as we did the last 4 games.

 

The BP is still our best asset and will keep that way.

 

I still believe this team win the division.

 

Except for the statement about having natural clutch hitters, I fully endorse this post. Having a lot of LOBs in games is truly a good sign for a team, not a bad one.

 

Hang in there people!

[mvp 78]

Prediction, Sox go 29-26 and settle for WC , which they lose in the 9th inning despite a 3 run lead when Barnes walks the bases full and then gives up a Pesky pole GS.

 

I don't like this timeline.

[Kimmi]

I expect that significant improvement from JDM.

 

As do I.

 

Since July 22, his batting line is horrendous (.114/.133/.159/.292), but that is also partially fueled by a .156 BABIP.

[Kimmi]

Realistic thread Part Ways...

 

Three True Outcomes: Division title, Wild Card game, miss playoffs.

 

What's your prediction with 55 games left? Here's one: the boost from Schwarber may help the offense more than Sale winning games (but his presence will inspire others on the staff to improve). On the mound, Houck will be more effective than Sale, in about the same amount of innings. Sox go 32-23, win WC game, lose ALDS...

 

Those pesky Rays are going to be tough. I don't know whether we will win the division or not, but we will stay in the running for the division. We will make the playoffs. Once there, I can't predict what will happen, only that we will have as good a chance as any other team.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Keep in mind that if Sale does pitch on any day in the Rays series, there will be 39 to 40 remaining games from then, so Sale gets maybe 8 starts if his arm and shoulder hold up. Maybe 40-50 innings total. Definitely a boost over any of Perez or Richards , and same for Houck. I do think they need to see if Houck can get to the 5-6 inning mark as a precursor to 2022. Otherwise point to BP for '22.

 

Slugger Schwarber , if he's back on the 10th gets about 200 PA's at max, maybe 50 hits . Better than Dalbec or the late Chavis would have done . You can only hope he energizes the offense like Rizzo may have done for NYY. Forgetting Rizzo, and discounting Schwarber's potential contributions, Bloom basically traded for a guy that can't play , needs to learn a new position and may not be real maneuverable in the midst of a pennant race. We'll see how that plays out.

 

Prediction, Sox go 29-26 and settle for WC , which they lose in the 9th inning despite a 3 run lead when Barnes walks the bases full and then gives up a Pesky pole GS.

 

I don't see Schwarber hitting dozens of dingers in six weeks, but do think his presence in the batting order will help hitters around him, seeing better pitches to hit, as well as worrying pitchers to also issue more walks, and managers bringing in more lefties required to throw to three batters (including two righty All-Stars).

 

As for Sale's actual contributions -- I'm not as enthusiastic... If he has 10 starts and the Sox win 6 of them, that is a huge aid. I think there will be a setback, where they have him skip a turn or two. We may have to settle for 7 starts with the Sox winning 4.

Edited August 3, 2021 by 5GoldGloves:OF,75

[a700hitter]

Those pesky Rays are going to be tough. I don't know whether we will win the division or not, but we will stay in the running for the division. We will make the playoffs. Once there, I can't predict what will happen, only that we will have as good a chance as any other team.

I am not quite as sure about a playoff berth. This Tiger series is critical to righting their ship.