A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Besides a quality start ASAP, another thing this team could use from Chris Sale is a profanity-laced ass-kicking tongue-lashing, last seen and heard in LA in '18 the World Series.

 

Our best hopes going forward are that Schwarber wakes up the batting order, but most importantly, Sale and Houck keep us in games (preferably separate games), and either Eovaldi -- who looked tired vs. Tampa -- or ERod (time to step up) have solid stretch runs.

 

That's it, three good starters; if the Sox get good outings in three of every five starts through the rotation for the last 50 or so games, they should win more than they lose and be in the playoff hunt til the end. It's not impossible. Improbable?

[jacksonianmarch]

I think everyone on this site, to a person, would agree that the Sox have overachieved. The problem you run into with a shallow benched, thin farmed overachieving team is that when you start to see wear and tear, fatigue, or injury, you don’t have the backups there to step in and perform. The Sox have a bunch of super sub type players, but they’re all sucking. The Sox have a rotation of 4’s and 5’s and they’re all regressing to their mean after all overachieving. The offense has finally started to have some valleys after months of peaks. This is where you figure out the intestinal fortitude of a team. When s*** starts going wrong, can they keep it from snow balling? It’s an intriguing storyline for sure. You’ve got Pivetta tonight against the Rays who are looking to add some distance from you, then an off day, then three against the mediocre tigers, albeit with Garrett Richards starting the series. The last two months of this season could be intriguing

[moonslav59]

I’d hope his next start is in Boston, but consider this. Is it all about innings pitched? Is that the only thing that seems a pitcher done with rehab and ready? What about his mechanics? Is he repeating his delivery? Velocity? Secondaries? Consistency? Etc. there’s more to the equation than the raw number of innings pitched.

 

I have a hard time believing he’s not MLB ready after his last start. But I don’t really know.

 

Perez, Richards and Pivetta are minor league ready.

 

Any innings by Sale have to be better or at worst, the same.

[Bellhorn04]

Perez, Richards and Pivetta are minor league ready.

 

Any innings by Sale have to be better or at worst, the same.

 

I agree with everything you said there. If they do give Sale one more start at Worcester, I guess the thinking is they're sticking with the plan they had and agreed on with Sale, and not panicking.

 

Not long ago many were saying we shouldn't count on Sale for anything this year. Now we want to rush him in there ASAP.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I agree with everything you said there. If they do give Sale one more start at Worcester, I guess the thinking is they're sticking with the plan they had and agreed on with Sale, and not panicking.

 

Not long ago many were saying we shouldn't count on Sale for anything this year. Now we want to rush him in there ASAP.

 

I honestly wasn't counting on Sale for the second half, thinking anything we get would be a bonus. But management has anointed him the savior -- how many Sox employees have said he's better than anyone on the trade market -- while at the same time easing him back into action.

 

Knowing how all-out Sale the competitor is, with the added pressure of maybe saving a sinking ship, it's going to be hard to reign him in... with an eye on a full season in full recovery in '22 (which some fans think will feature a better Red Sox team).

[Kimmi]

This starting staff is starting to shape up like the 2011 staff that collapsed in September. I think that is where they are heading, but it will happen a month earlier so it will not hurt as much. I guess we can hope that Chris Sale returns as 2017 Chris Sale. But is that realistic?

 

Sometimes, it's almost like you root for things like this to happen.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Whitlock should become the new 8th inning guy and Valdez becomes Houck's piggyback partner. Valdez has looked really good, has given the Red Sox some big innings, and he can go 2-3 innings. Thus, Houck goes 4-5 followed by Valdez who will go 2-3. Thus, maybe Houck + Valdez = one excellent starter.

 

Postseason rotation would look like this:

1.Eovaldi

2.Sale

3.Houck followed by Valdez

4.E-Rod

 

Closer: Barnes

8th inning set up: Whitlock (could even use Josh Taylor if lefties are scheduled to hit)

 

DEMOTED:

Ottavino.

Let's face it, the Yankees started using Ottavino less frequently later in the season twice? I think so. At one point, they lost so much confidence in Ottavino that they were quite reluctant to use him in the playoffs.

Edited August 1, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Kimmi]

Bloom, former Rays guy thinks our starting pitching is solid?

 

“We feel really good about that group,” Bloom said about the starting rotation before Friday’s game. “They’ve helped get us where we’ve gotten. And we’re about to get deeper and about to add a lot more impact.”

 

Boston ranks 20th in the majors in starter ERA (4.57). That's with good April and May.

 

Manager Alex Cora said he’s not concerned about the starting pitching.

 

Our starting pitching was never supposed to be our strength. They are average and will keep the team in most games. Our starters' ERA ranks them 8th in the AL. That's with the league worst BABIP of .332.

 

The offense has to get it done.

[Kimmi]

Not predicting this in any way, but if the Sox slip from a PO spot and end up outside looking in come October, yet finish with 90 or so wins, was 2021 a success?

 

Considering the predictions by most people coming into the season, you would have to call it a success.

 

If you asked the question before the season started, I think most people would say it was a successful season.

[Kimmi]

What a difference a week makes in the mood of fans.

 

Hang in there. The Sox will be fine.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Not predicting this in any way, but if the Sox slip from a PO spot and end up outside looking in come October, yet finish with 90 or so wins, was 2021 a success?

For me it would be a failure and a major collapse. I'm not expecting the Red Sox to collapse, although I do believe Bloom and the Red Sox blew it at the trade deadline, not because they didn't acquire a SP (they tried and the only two upgrades were far too expensive) but because they didn't acquire a starting 1b and a relief upgrade. I guess if Kyle S. can handle first base, I'll feel differently about the matter.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Our starting pitching was never supposed to be our strength. They are average and will keep the team in most games. Our starters' ERA ranks them 8th in the AL. That's with the league worst BABIP of .332.

 

The offense has to get it done.

 

If the SOX starting staff is average, I'd hate to see what below average looks like.

[Nick]

What a difference a week makes in the mood of fans.

 

Hang in there. The Sox will be fine.

 

I always say it's ultimately players' game.

 

In reality, Bloom has done everything I've wanted.

 

Whitlock and Houck has progressed in our system. They look like keepers.

 

It remains to be seen where Pivetta falls in rotation. #2/#3 or #5. I'm leaning towards #5.

 

Darwinzon appears capable of giving us one inning off of clean start. Bases loaded, no out with runner on third? He may be

able to get you three strike outs. Or he may walk the winning run on 4 pitches.

 

Taylor can be solid lefty. Overall, he's had good year.

 

Kike has played the way I'd imagine Cora foresaw.

 

Renfroe is better than I expected.

 

Duran finally brought up. It's up to him to make some contact in order to help the team.

 

Dalbec was given plenty of opportunity. I don't think they'll give up on him but with his high K rate, what role does he have?

 

Arroyo will be solid addition to the team. Starting or off the bench, he's a gamer. Needs to stay healthy.

 

Vaz is Vaz. Unless we have someone better, we're stuck with him.

 

JD, Devers and Xander are our main offensive threat.

 

Just as we've upgraded our rotation from 20 to 21, improvements must be made to our starting rotation this off season.

Edited August 1, 2021 by Nick

[Nick]

$13.750 Dustin

$02.800 Beni

$07.150 Ottavino

$10.000 Garrett

$08.300 E Rod

$05.000 Perez

$02.100 Andriese

$03.000 Darwin

$52.100 Total

 

We have enough money to sign an elite starter.

 

Best way to improve our 26 man roster without giving up a player.

 

NO EXCUSES THIS WINTER FOR BLOOM

[moonslav59]

I agree with everything you said there. If they do give Sale one more start at Worcester, I guess the thinking is they're sticking with the plan they had and agreed on with Sale, and not panicking.

 

Not long ago many were saying we shouldn't count on Sale for anything this year. Now we want to rush him in there ASAP.

 

I’m not rushing him. I want his continued rehab innings in BOS not Portland.

[jacksonianmarch]

$13.750 Dustin

$02.800 Beni

$07.150 Ottavino

$10.000 Garrett

$08.300 E Rod

$05.000 Perez

$02.100 Andriese

$03.000 Darwin

$52.100 Total

 

We have enough money to sign an elite starter.

 

Best way to improve our 26 man roster without giving up a player.

 

NO EXCUSES THIS WINTER FOR BLOOM

 

Yeah, but a bunch of starter spots open. I’m not sold on Houck. Can’t seem to stay healthy and the Sox certainly aren’t treating him like an integral part of the future. But let’s, for argument’s sake, say he’s got a spot next year. You’ve got Sale and Pivetta. You need two starters and have a barren farm on the pitching end. Plus you’ve got medical question marks surrounding Sale and Houck. While you certainly can sign a Scherzer, I wonder if you’ll see multiple veteran signees as depth. Remember, you’re gonna see a jump in Devers’ pay too. You also don’t know if Henry has okayed another run above the Lux tax. That might make this all moot

[Maxbialystock]

What a difference a week makes in the mood of fans.

 

Hang in there. The Sox will be fine.

 

It's what happened during the week that changed the mood. The rotation continued to slide backwards, the hitting did too, the Jays split a series we thought the Sox would take (3-1), Bloom made no moves to bolster the pitching and could only come up with an injured outfielder (the Sox need a hitting first baseman) to help the lineup, and the Rays beat the Sox 7-3 and, worse, 9-5 in the Trop, the latter game with the Sox ace Eovaldi getting smacked around--as was Ottavino, Barnes' set-up man who is paid more than Barnes. Oh, and bring-up infielder Arauz had 2 errors last night.

 

To me the bad week fits the worst case scenario: the rotation sucks so badly the hitting can't make up the difference, and Bloom has signaled that this is not our year.

 

I am more pessimistic than you because I just don't see how the pitching is going to come around, but I also am grateful for a superb first 2/3 of the season, which was completely unexpected.

 

And this. Our two hotshot rookies, Dalbec and Duran, don't look like they are ready for MLB.

 

I also agree with moonslav's analysis of why Bloom didn't go after a really good starter: JH didn't want to go over the luxury tax limit, and Bloom didn't want to give up any of the Sox best prospects.

Edited August 1, 2021 by Maxbialystock

[illinoisredsox]

I’m not rushing him. I want his continued rehab innings in BOS not Portland.

 

Minor nit - they moved him to Worcester, which is where he pitched yesterday.

 

However, that doesn't change your basic thought.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

 

I also agree with moonslav's analysis of why Bloom didn't go after a really good starter: JH didn't want to go over the luxury tax limit, and Bloom didn't want to give up any of the Sox best prospects.

 

... Or, as has also been suggested, the sellers liked other teams' best prospects better.

 

Bloom may also be hanging on to top prospects for two obvious reasons: 1) to continue to build depth, so when the time comes that he deems the Sox all-in, he can deal for needed MLB pieces without decimating the farm; and 2) he's made some untouchable, envisioning players who may be part of the core of his someday "sustainable contenders".

 

Casas, for one, looks like he could be a force at first base and in the heart of the order. Duran and/or Gilberto Jimenez may also be worth keeping, until the Sox determine if either is the centerfielder of the future.

[Nick]

Yeah, but a bunch of starter spots open. I’m not sold on Houck. Can’t seem to stay healthy and the Sox certainly aren’t treating him like an integral part of the future. But let’s, for argument’s sake, say he’s got a spot next year. You’ve got Sale and Pivetta. You need two starters and have a barren farm on the pitching end. Plus you’ve got medical question marks surrounding Sale and Houck. While you certainly can sign a Scherzer, I wonder if you’ll see multiple veteran signees as depth. Remember, you’re gonna see a jump in Devers’ pay too. You also don’t know if Henry has okayed another run above the Lux tax. That might make this all moot

 

I'm glad you're not a Red Sox fan.

 

On one hand you come here and trash us but then you pile on when we discuss possible solutions. We're hopeless according to you.

 

Your tone is that we can't do anything to improve.

 

Whitlock will be a starter next year. You probably don't think that's doable. I wouldn't put anything past this Rule 5 pick that Yankees failed to protect.

 

Adding Sale and Whitlock to Eovaldi and Pivetta will be a good start. I'm sure Bloom can find pitching depth.

 

2022 outlook is better than 2021.

 

We're not starting over. We're building on top of 2021.

[jacksonianmarch]

I'm glad you're not a Red Sox fan.

 

On one hand you come here and trash us but then you pile on when we discuss possible solutions. We're hopeless according to you.

 

Your tone is that we can't do anything to improve.

 

Whitlock will be a starter next year. You probably don't think that's doable. I wouldn't put anything past this Rule 5 pick that Yankees failed to protect.

 

Adding Sale and Whitlock to Eovaldi and Pivetta will be a good start. I'm sure Bloom can find pitching depth.

 

2022 outlook is better than 2021.

 

We're not starting over. We're building on top of 2021.

 

Totally forgot about Eovaldi. Yeah, you do have room for a top end starter

[Fan_since_Boggs]

The Red Sox have to hope that Chris Sale is a big SP upgrade and that a stretched out Houck will upgrade the rotation as well. We shall see.....

 

But if Sale and Houck pitch as well as they are capable, the Red Sox have a championship caliber starting rotation. Of course, Eovaldi is a big piece of that too. Then again, there are many things that could go wrong with this plan and the rotation is a major area of concern at this point.

 

But some of the scrubs like Perez and Richards aren't going to see the light of day in the postseason.

 

edit: just talking about 2021 here.

Edited August 1, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[dgalehouse]

Sometime after the parade in 2018 , John Henry made a statement that he was tired of spending too much and losing money on the team. Nothing that has happened since then has indicated that he has changed his mind very much , if at all. I know we still have a high payroll, but there obviously is a tighter grip on the old debit card. Edited August 1, 2021 by dgalehouse

[moonslav59]

$13.750 Dustin

$02.800 Beni

$07.150 Ottavino

$10.000 Garrett

$08.300 E Rod

$05.000 Perez

$02.100 Andriese

$03.000 Darwin

$52.100 Total

 

We have enough money to sign an elite starter.

 

Best way to improve our 26 man roster without giving up a player.

 

NO EXCUSES THIS WINTER FOR BLOOM

 

Do we lose Price’s contract, too?

 

We do have arb raises and some pen slots to fill, too, but if we can go over the tax line, we should be able to vastly improve the team on paper.

[illinoisredsox]

Do we lose Price’s contract, too?

 

We do have arb raises and some pen slots to fill, too, but if we can go over the tax line, we should be able to vastly improve the team on paper.

 

No in Price. He's signed through 2022, and I think the Sox are on the hook for about half of his $32M salary.

 

 

If spotrac is correct, the Sox are over the limit this season by about $3M.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/tax/

Edited August 1, 2021 by illinoisredsox

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Spotrac is just an internet site, can't be counted on. I didn't hear his post-trade deadline press conference, but I did hear that Bloom indicated that the Red Sox are NOT over the limit this season.

 

Yeah, and that probably had something to do with the Red Sox not making more moves. Staying under was likely a priority.

[d-money]

Spotrac is just an internet site, can't be counted on. I didn't hear his post-trade deadline press conference, but I did hear that Bloom indicated that the Red Sox are NOT over the limit this season.

 

Yeah, and that probably had something to do with the Red Sox not making more moves. Staying under was likely a priority.

 

 

Bloom can say all the right things the guy did squat to improve this team while our rivals did and have looked rejuvenated.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

What 40 man roster crunch?

 

C:

Vazquez

Plawecki

C.Wong

R.Hernandez

 

INF:

Dalbec

Bogaerts

Devers

J.Arauz

C.Arroyo

K.Hernandez

 

OF:

Duran

Verdugo

Renfroe

 

BULLPEN:

Barnes

Braiser

J.Taylor

D.Hernandez

P.Valdez

E.Bazardo

Sawamura

A.Davis

 

STARTERS:

Sale

Eovaldi

Houck

Whitlock

Pivetta

Perez

C.Seabold

B.Mata

J.Groome

 

Added to the 40 man:

J.Downs

G.Jimenez

B.Bello

J.Winckowski

D.Feltman

K.Crawford

V.Santos

 

----That’s 37 players, leaving 3 spots open (did I overlook someone?) NOTE: I’m assuming JD opts out. Also: I'm not sure about Feltman making the 40 man roster, he might be kept off. I'm guessing Santos makes it, since Bloom traded for him---

 

As far as the open spots go, I would think the Red Sox go all out to resign K.Schwarber. They should look to add a really good bullpen arm in free agency. I’m not sure about E-Rod, he might want too much money and might not be brought back. In addition, the Red Sox have a lot of starting pitching depth and I'm not sure if E-Rod is really worth a sizeable contract.

 

I only have 3 outfielders on the 40 man (minus G.Jimenez) and so the Red Sox will need to get something figured out there. As far as Rosario goes, he isn’t hitting this year, but maybe the Red Sox keep him around for his speed and defense.

 

Free Agents:

JD Martinez

E-Rod

K.Schwarber

Andriese

Ottavino

G.Richards

M.Gonzalez

D.Santana

H.Robles

 

Deactivated/Released/Traded

Cordero

Rosario

Potts

Y.Rios

Edited August 1, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Nick]

Sometime after the parade in 2018 , John Henry made a statement that he was tired of spending too much and losing money on the team. Nothing that has happened since then has indicated that he has changed his mind very much , if at all. I know we still have a high payroll, but there obviously is a tighter grip on the old debit card.

 

Not doubting you but I'd like to see his exact quote and the question that was asked.

 

Most business people I know is trying to improve the market value of the organization and they're more concerned with increasing the top line. Many assets are valued by revenue multiples.

[moonslav59]

No in Price. He's signed through 2022, and I think the Sox are on the hook for about half of his $32M salary.

 

 

If spotrac is correct, the Sox are over the limit this season by about $3M.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/tax/

 

Cots has us under but do not have Santana’s contract listed.