A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[moonslav59]

The Rays not getting Glasgow back will hurt.

 

When is Severino due back with the Yanks?

[Kimmi]

I am not quite as sure about a playoff berth. This Tiger series is critical to righting their ship.

 

No team should ever be taken lightly. The Tigers, with their MLB worst ranked offense, scored 22 runs against us in our last series with them.

 

Our offense needs to get it going.

[moonslav59]

I am not quite as sure about a playoff berth. This Tiger series is critical to righting their ship.

 

Take a stab at it.

[mvp 78]

I am not quite as sure about a playoff berth. This Tiger series is critical to righting their ship.

 

Playing the "play in" game is not the playoffs, so I agree.

[Kimmi]

Playing the "play in" game is not the playoffs, so I agree.

 

Stop.

[mvp 78]

Stop.

 

You. We've already determined that it's not the playoffs. It's no longer up for discussion.

[Bellhorn04]

Those pesky Rays are going to be tough. I don't know whether we will win the division or not, but we will stay in the running for the division. We will make the playoffs. Once there, I can't predict what will happen, only that we will have as good a chance as any other team.

 

In theory, Wild Card teams have 50% as good a chance as division winners.

[mvp 78]

In theory, Wild Card teams have 50% as good a chance as division winners.

 

Wrong. Division winners are 100% in the playoffs. Wild Card teams are only a 50% chance to make the playoffs. Then, after using their best starter in a playoff game, they have to go face the toughest team in their league. Not sure that's an ideal position for any team.

[Bellhorn04]

Wrong. Division winners are 100% in the playoffs. Wild Card teams are only a 50% chance to make the playoffs. Then, after using their best starter in a playoff game, they have to go face the toughest team in their league. Not sure that's an ideal position for any team.

 

Have to look at actual historical results then.

[moonslav59]

Wrong. Division winners are 100% in the playoffs. Wild Card teams are only a 50% chance to make the playoffs. Then, after using their best starter in a playoff game, they have to go face the toughest team in their league. Not sure that's an ideal position for any team.

 

Best starter use for WC games are not automatic.

[mvp 78]

Since the Wild Card Game was created:

 

2012 - Cardinals made it to NLCS

2013 - no WC teams made the Championship round

2014 - both WC winners made it to the WS

2015 - Cubs made the NLCS

2016 - Jays made the ALCS

2017 - Yankees made the ALCS

2018 - no WC teams made the Championship round

2019 - Nats won the WS

 

In 8 years, only 3 WC teams made the WS, with 2 winners.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Best starter use for WC games are not automatic.

 

But you'd better use your best reliever. Right, Buck?

[mvp 78]

Have to look at actual historical results then.

 

Done. If all teams are given a 25% chance to make the WS (3 division winners, 1 WC winner per league), the WC winner only got in 19% of the time.

[mvp 78]

Best starter use for WC games are not automatic.

 

I guess depending on how it lines up? There's still a disadvantage there.

[Bellhorn04]

In 8 years, only 3 WC teams made the WS, with 2 winners.

 

And if WC winners had an equal 25% chance, the expectation for those 8 years would be 4 teams in the WS and 2 winners.

 

So it's close, so far.

[Bellhorn04]

Done. If all teams are given a 25% chance to make the WS (3 division winners, 1 WC winner per league), the WC winner only got in 19% of the time.

 

It does make sense that the WC winners' chances are less than 25% because of the handicaps, and maybe more like 20%. I'll buy that.

 

Which means being a Wild Card team gives you only 40% as good a chance as being a division winner.

[moonslav59]

It does make sense that the WC winners' chances are less than 25% because of the handicaps, and maybe more like 20%. I'll buy that.

 

Which means being a Wild Card team gives you only 40% as good a chance as being a division winner.

 

Maybe cause they aren’t as good, too.

[mvp 78]

It does make sense that the WC winners' chances are less than 25% because of the handicaps, and maybe more like 20%. I'll buy that.

 

Which means being a Wild Card team gives you only 40% as good a chance as being a division winner.

 

It's still better than I thought it would be. A slight disadvantage for WC teams seems fair.

[mvp 78]

Maybe cause they aren’t as good, too.

 

Really depends on how good the WC team was during the regular season. Sometimes, you'll have a WC team that is clearly the 2nd best team in that league (BOS 2003, 2004).

[harmony]

110 games is still rather small but is significant.

 

That doesn’t mean luck still plays no role.

 

Or yes.

Luck indeed plays a role as evidenced by the Seattle Mariners' current 57-50 record with a negative 50 run differential. Meanwhile the Red Sox have a respectable positive run differential of 48.

 

But the power rests in the West.

 

In a current five-day period I will see two interleague games involving four West teams -- Houston, San Francisco, San Diego and Oakland -- with a combined positive run differential of 416 ... and that does not include the Los Angeles Dodgers' MLB-best run differential of 165.

[dgalehouse]

Run differential tells you something about a team's strength, but it doesn't mean everything. Every game is a new day , a new contest. How many times after winning a blowout do you hear fans say , " Why can't we save some of those runs for tomorrow?" Unfortunately, that is still not permitted.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

I'm not ready to panic. A month and a half ago posters were looking at this stretch in the schedule and hoping to play .500 through it, then we'll be OK. Not sure what the numbers are but I believe they are still above .500 for this brutal stretch that will come to an end.

[moonslav59]

I'm not ready to panic. A month and a half ago posters were looking at this stretch in the schedule and hoping to play .500 through it' date=' then we'll be OK. Not sure what the numbers are but I believe they are still above .500 for this brutal stretch that will come to an end.[/quote']

 

Good point.

[Maxbialystock]

The rotation is a fright, top to bottom--even Eovaldi. The hitting isn't--Sunday night the Rays closer threw nothing but sliders and still kept that 1 run lead.

 

But the optimists have a point. Still plenty of baseball yet, and this team has bounced back before.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

I'm glad they stuck to the plan and didn't sell too many young guys and kept the pipeline intact. Love what the Yankees did even if it hurts now.

[moonslav59]

I'm glad they stuck to the plan and didn't sell too many young guys and kept the pipeline intact. Love what the Yankees did even if it hurts now.

 

The best part of the Yanks trading some of their future away is that it won’t get them over the hump.

[Noles_1335]

It’s time to push the panic button… and hopefully ole Bloomer was handcuffed in possible acquisitions! None of our SP’s show any real chance to dominate a lineup and get the game to the late innings with a lead… Button officially pushed!!!

[Nick]

Posters complain Houck can't be a starter because he struggles second time around

 

Sure, he's the only one with that problem. Do we watch the same game?

 

Date IP H R ER B K HR SP

8/03 4.0 5 3 3 2 5 1 Richards

8/01 4.2 3 3 3 1 6 1 L Pivetta

7/31 5.1 6 6 5 1 6 2 L Eovaldi

7/30 4.0 7 6 6 1 5 3 L Perez

7/29 3.1 7 6 6 4 8 0 L E Rod

7/28 4.0 2 1 1 1 7 0 W Houck

7/28 4.0 8 4 4 1 2 2 L Richards

 

Be my guest, blow up the sample size and see if you come up different outcome. It's been bad since June 1st.

Edited August 4, 2021 by Nick

[oldtimer]

The Sox aren't hitting. For all the complaints about Duran, he went 2 for 5. Devers was 0 for 5 behind him. The Sox need some of their hitters back. Missing Kike was big tonight as we played Duran, Cordero and Gonzalez and pinch hit Dalbec. Would like to know when Arroyo gets back and Schwaber is probably out until the 10th at least.

[moonslav59]

We've lost 6 of 7 right after winning 6 of 7.

 

Don't give up on this team.

 

Someone take names. (lol)