A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[Kimmi]

That's the only data we can go on.

 

You can't just say everything is a crapshoot and not be able to have any sort of backup for it.

 

Right now, it appears that WC teams are less likely than division winners to make the WS.

 

There is plenty, plenty of evidence that supports the playoffs being a crapshoot. I don't make statements such as this without having researched the topic. I have posted this stuff before. The biggest piece of evidence, IMO, is the fact that nothing about the regular season correlates very strongly with postseason wins. That is the very definition of crapshoot.

 

I will grant you that with the latest addition of the wildcard playoff game, there might be changing data. But if I had to guess, I'd say there won't be. Posting data from 8 postseasons tells you nothing.

[Kimmi]

Especially now that half the WC teams are eliminated in a one game playoff and have burned their best starter before their following series

 

Again, I am talking about once you get past the one game playoff.

[Noles_1335]

Kimmi.... C'mon now, how can you not be worried about the pitching. When we're down 4-5 by the 5th we start to press and that's having a major effect on offensive. Granted some guys are struggling with the bat but that's been a small comparison to what certain arms have done over multiple outings. Things have to change and quick or the Yanks will be on our tails for that WC spot... or the A's get hot and put us in their mirror! It's time to bring Casas up and see if he's the real deal... kid is crushing Tokyo! Any arm that is thought to be ready or a potential 40 man... give them the tryout and roll with it! If they fall flat on their face we know what we're dealing with when FA hits.

[mvp 78]

Again, I am talking about once you get past the one game playoff.

 

Yes, we're talking about the WC play in game winners only.

 

My assumption is that there is a slight disadvantage. So far, the scant evidence we have points to that.

 

I believe this new playoff format isn't compatible to what we saw to the older system where the Sox were treated equally to the other postseason teams aside from homefield advantage.

[a700hitter]

But more often than not, you can't.

I have not been able to predict this season up to this point. I am still trying to figure out the biggest reasons for success. My best guess is Cora as manager and Tek as the game planner. They have their work cut out for them, because they don’t have the horses.

[moonslav59]

Many times you can figure out the end long before you finish the book.

 

You'll be so content, if the season turns out like you expected.

[Hugh2]

At this point, anything less than a WS win will be enough for people to complain. SEE! we should have signed EVERYONE!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

At this point, anything less than a WS win will be enough for people to complain. SEE! we should have signed EVERYONE!

 

Even the people complaining about people complaining have to admit it can be frustrating as a fan when the organization you follow uses social media to send mixed messages -- like mocking early-season skepticism, celebrating resetting payroll under tax penalties, and planting rumors of owners wanting to deal for the top starting pitcher on the trade market... and then not moving a few prospects who may never make it to acquire what the Chief Officer called "the obvious puzzle pieces".

 

Maybe the front office and a few fans agreed that this team wasn't good enough to sacrifice a bit of the future for a better shot at winning this year. But there were also plenty -- including the manager and a lot of players -- who thought this version worthy... instead of assuming/hoping another Red Sox club in the next few summers will be 23 games over .500.

[moonslav59]

It seems like some think we are not even a .500 team anymore, but if we go 27-27 the rest of the way, we'll end up with 90 wins.

 

Sure, I'd be disappointed in going 28-33 to end the season, but 90 wins for a rebuilding team is incredible.

 

Blowing up the rebuild to shoot for the moon at the deadline would have been a huge mistake.

 

We added a big hitter to play 1B, our biggest weakness on paper and some pen depth. When Sale, Houck, DHern & Barnes return, we'll be demoting someone we'd never dreamed of demoting weeks ago. When Arroyo returns and Kike moves back to CF, we'll be better defensively and offensively, and our bench will be the best we've had all year (Duran, Marwin, Plawecki and Dalbec).

 

I know things look bad, now, but we have 6 guys coming back or joining the team:

 

Sale

Barnes

Houck

Schwarber

Arroyo

DHern

 

That's better than anyone's trade deadline haul, except maybe the Dodgers, and we gave up only Aldo.

 

Look for silver linings.

[jacksonianmarch]

DHern May be out longer than you think. He had a significant amount of pain yesterday

[Fan_since_Boggs]

As others have mentioned, I do wonder if the AL is catching up to the Red Sox's tendencies, and this might explain the recent hitting slump. The Red Sox swing at more pitches out of the zone than any other team, and pitchers seem to be exploiting that tendency more than ever before. Pitchers don't need to throw this offense strikes, the offense continuously expands the zone, even the better hitters expand more than they should, and of course pieces of garbage like Dalbec and Gonzalez expand beyond the fringes of normalcy.

 

The offense needs to take a more disciplined approach, take the walk and let the next guy do the damage. It sounds like Cora has been preaching this message but the players have not yet responded. Schwarber will help as he is generally a patient hitter who understands the value of swinging at strikes.

 

At some point, the Red Sox might want to reward plate discipline: demote Dalbec, release Gonzalez, and play the guys who don't swing at pitches in the dirt or the high fastball.

 

Of course, the Red Sox could have done more at the trade deadline as well in terms of acquiring disciplined hitters. Schwarber was a nice start but probably not enough.

 

M.Gonzalez's versatility is a nice thing but the Red Sox are paying him 3 mil and he has an OPS+ of 56. Can Bloom do a better job building a bench? Will Cora ever ask for changes? Gonzalez is a complete zero when it comes to offensive production and thus his versatility is largely meaningless. Releasing Gonzalez makes a lot of sense--it would be nice to see the Red Sox operate with more urgency. It is also worth noting that the Red Sox have given Gonzalez 223 at bats this year. That's too much playing time for a 56 OPS+.

Edited August 4, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[dgalehouse]

I think a crapshoot means that every playoff team has a legitimate chance. But not necessarily an equal chance. We should be able to agree on that.

[mvp 78]

I think a crapshoot means that every playoff team has a legitimate chance. But not necessarily an equal chance. We should be able to agree on that.

 

No.

[Maxbialystock]

It seems like some think we are not even a .500 team anymore, but if we go 27-27 the rest of the way, we'll end up with 90 wins.

 

Sure, I'd be disappointed in going 28-33 to end the season, but 90 wins for a rebuilding team is incredible.

 

Blowing up the rebuild to shoot for the moon at the deadline would have been a huge mistake.

 

We added a big hitter to play 1B, our biggest weakness on paper and some pen depth. When Sale, Houck, DHern & Barnes return, we'll be demoting someone we'd never dreamed of demoting weeks ago. When Arroyo returns and Kike moves back to CF, we'll be better defensively and offensively, and our bench will be the best we've had all year (Duran, Marwin, Plawecki and Dalbec).

 

I know things look bad, now, but we have 6 guys coming back or joining the team:

 

Sale

Barnes

Houck

Schwarber

Arroyo

DHern

 

That's better than anyone's trade deadline haul, except maybe the Dodgers, and we gave up only Aldo.

 

Look for silver linings.

 

Love it, especially your pursuit of silver linings.

 

I also agree that Bloom's decisions were good. I have my doubts however, that Sale, Schwarber, Arroyo, Houck, etc can right this ship. Read on.

 

1. We have no specific dates on when they return (except for Houck), and the need, the very urgent need, is right now.

 

2. We don't know 2021 Sale will be as good as 2018 Sale, that Schwarber can play 1b and hit AL pitching, that Arroyo can stay off the IL while playing hard, that Houck can pitch more than 4 innings, that there won't be further injuries to key players, that JDM, Vazquez, etc will emerge from their slumps.

 

3. These past five games/losses suggest there is more wrong with these Sox than is rationally fixable. All five Sox starters are suspect. And the lineup just might be. In the top of the 7th last night, for example, the Sox were down 3-2, and Duran led off with a single and later stole 2b. But the next three batters, the absolute heart (Devers, Bogaerts, and JDM) of the Sox lineup this season, all struck out.

[a700hitter]

You'll be so content, if the season turns out like you expected.

That will not be possible as I predicted 90 + losses. Thankfully, I will be wrong about that as you are wrong in your attempts at mind reading.

[moonslav59]

Love it, especially your pursuit of silver linings.

 

I also agree that Bloom's decisions were good. I have my doubts however, that Sale, Schwarber, Arroyo, Houck, etc can right this ship. Read on.

 

1. We have no specific dates on when they return (except for Houck), and the need, the very urgent need, is right now.

 

2. We don't know 2021 Sale will be as good as 2018 Sale, that Schwarber can play 1b and hit AL pitching, that Arroyo can stay off the IL while playing hard, that Houck can pitch more than 4 innings, that there won't be further injuries to key players, that JDM, Vazquez, etc will emerge from their slumps.

 

3. These past five games/losses suggest there is more wrong with these Sox than is rationally fixable. All five Sox starters are suspect. And the lineup just might be. In the top of the 7th last night, for example, the Sox were down 3-2, and Duran led off with a single and later stole 2b. But the next three batters, the absolute heart (Devers, Bogaerts, and JDM) of the Sox lineup this season, all struck out.

 

I’m not saying there will be a silver lining when all is said and done, and I share the same concerns, worries and frustrations as everyone else. Nobody knows if our returning players will boost us enough, but nobody’s knows how other teams will do either.

 

I’m still more optimistic than pessimistic, and it seems like I’m in the minority, right now. A couple wins in a row is all that is needed to change that. Such is the way of the fickle fan.

[moonslav59]

That will not be possible as I predicted 90 + losses. Thankfully, I will be wrong about that as you are wrong in your attempts at mind reading.

 

You’ll be thrilled if we miss the playoffs. That’s not mind reading.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

The first move I would make right now: promote Munoz and release Gonzalez. Munoz is striking out 13% of the time in AAA this year. This is all about getting rid of players who expand the zone and aren't responding to Cora's calls for more patience at the plate. Why did the Red Sox even bother with Gonzalez when they had Munoz? Dumb, and a total waste of 3 million.

 

I would also demote Dalbec but have not yet figured out the corresponding move.

 

I would go with a Cordero/Munoz platoon at 1b until Schwarber is ready.

Edited August 4, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[mvp 78]

The first move I would make right now: promote Munoz and release Gonzalez. Munoz is striking out 13% of the time in AAA this year. This is all about getting rid of players who expand the zone. Why did the Red Sox even bother with Gonzalez when they had Munoz? Dumb, and a total waste of 3 million.

 

I would also demote Dalbec but I just don't know the corresponding move right now.

 

I would go with a Cordero/Munoz platoon at 1b until Schwarber is ready.

 

I think you are discounting what Marwin's glove brings to the table. He's better than Munoz/Cordero/Santana/Dalbec/Chavis. He's mediocre, but still better than the other weak links.

[Maxbialystock]

I’m not saying there will be a silver lining when all is said and done, and I share the same concerns, worries and frustrations as everyone else. Nobody knows if our returning players will boost us enough, but nobody’s knows how other teams will do either.

 

I’m still more optimistic than pessimistic, and it seems like I’m in the minority, right now. A couple wins in a row is all that is needed to change that. Such is the way of the fickle fan.

 

Well stated, as always.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

In the top of the 7th last night, for example, the Sox were down 3-2, and Duran led off with a single and later stole 2b. But the next three batters, the absolute heart (Devers, Bogaerts, and JDM) of the Sox lineup this season, all struck out.

 

That was a troubling inning. I missed the Devers' at bat, but saw Bogaerts and JD. They both struck out swinging at pitches that were out of the zone.

 

Cora will need to keep preaching patience at the plate and you would expect the better hitters to eventually respond. I also like the idea of improving things at the margins, dump the secondary players like Dalbec and Gonzalez who swing at every pitch under the sun.

 

If it is indeed true that the league is adjusting to the Red Sox by throwing more pitches out of the zone and getting them to chase, the Red Sox in turn must adjust to the league by demonstrating greater patience at the plate. If the Red Sox do that, this team can get back on track especially if Sale and Houck can make positive contributions to the starting staff.

Edited August 4, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[mvp 78]

That was a troubling inning. I missed the Devers' at bat, but saw Bogaerts and JD. They both struck out swinging at pitches that were out of the zone.

 

Cora will need to keep preaching patience at the plate and you would expect the better hitters to eventually respond. I also like the idea of improving things at the margins, dump the secondary players like Dalbec and Gonzalez who swing at every pitch under the sun.

 

If it is indeed true that the league is adjusting to the Red Sox by throwing more pitches out of the zone and getting them to chase, the Red Sox in turn must adjust to the league by demonstrating greater patience at the plate.

 

Devers' BB% is a career high this season. Xander's and JD's are well within expectations. Verdugo just isn't getting the hard contact he used to. Not sure it's a change in his swing tho.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

OK, but the Red Sox do lead the league in swinging at pitches out of the zone.

 

Some on this forum have suggested that pitchers are aware of this and are throwing even less strikes to the Red Sox's batters, knowing they will chase. Some believe that this might explain the Red Sox's recent slump. And we also know that Cora has been preaching the message of patience lately. That is to say, the Red Sox have determined that this is a problem.

Edited August 4, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[mvp 78]

OK, but the Red Sox do lead the league in swinging at pitches out of the zone.

 

Some on this forum have suggested that pitchers are aware of this and are throwing even less strikes to the Red Sox's batters, knowing they will chase. Some believe that this might explain the Red Sox's recent slump. And we also know that Cora has been preaching the message of patience lately. That is to say, the Red Sox have determined that this is a problem.

 

I don't know if it's something Cora can fix. This seems to be a roster construction issue IMO.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Interesting, JD Martinez has a 37 O-Swing % (the percentage of pitches the batter swings at outside the strikezone) and this is the highest of his career.

Bogaerts has a 35.6 O-Swing %, tied for the highest in his career.

 

In contrast, Kyle Schwarber has an impressive 24.1 O-Swing %.

 

Bobby Dalbec has a 33.4 O-Swing %, pretty lousy, but not as terrible as Martinez and Bogaerts' percentages. The problems with Dalbec are deeper, though. Not only does he chase too many pitches, but he often can't do anything with pitches in the zone. Darbec = 71.6% contact with pitches in the zone, whereas JD is 82.1% and Bogaerts is 86%. To put this another way: when Dalbec swings at a pitch in the zone, he will swing through the pitch and miss it roughly 30% of the time.

Edited August 4, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[moonslav59]

Cora just needs to tell JD and Bogey not to swing at bad pitches.

[a700hitter]

You’ll be thrilled if we miss the playoffs. That’s not mind reading.

You are an idiot.

[Nick]

Tanner pitched 5, 6 and 6 innings in his 3 starts in 2020.

 

Where in the HELL are you guys coming up with the thought that he's a 4 inning pitcher?

 

Quit being freaking lazy. Why don't you look at some facts?

[moonslav59]

Tanner pitched 5, 6 and 6 innings in his 3 starts in 2020.

 

Where in the HELL are you guys coming up with the thought that he's a 4 inning pitcher?

 

Quit being freaking lazy. Why don't you look at some facts?

 

He has good numbers third time through, so I'm not sure the second time through criticism holds much water.

 

All-in-all, Houck's MLB sample size is rather small, but looking over some of our SP'ers, I like our chances with him more than them.

 

He'd have probably been on an innings limit, this year, but now that he has missed some time, he's probably good to go the rest of the way.

 

I'm not sure I'd let him go 90-100 pitches right off the bat, in is next 2-3 starts, but later on, why not?

[dgalehouse]

People make things too complicated. Watch Houck pitch. You will see that he has excellent stuff and should be in the rotation.