A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[Hugh2]

Oh definitely.

 

Let him prove himself next year. Maybe with close to a full season under his belt he's able to up his game enough to let his power show and become a respectable 1B. But we're in August and he's been awful all year, with 5-7 game glimpses of hope, but we need to make the change. His roster spot could be used to add a pitcher, we need pitching bad on this team. I have to believe at least some of the woes stem from overusage, these guys need rest if they are going to help us in October.

[Kimmi]

If the SOX starting staff is average, I'd hate to see what below average looks like.

 

The Sox starting staff actually ranks a little higher than middle of the pack in the AL for every stat/metric that I looked at.

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox starting staff actually ranks a little higher than middle of the pack in the AL for every stat/metric that I looked at.

 

I think they are last among all the teams in the playoff picture, though?

[jacksonianmarch]

I think they are last among all the teams in the playoff picture, though?

 

Staff as a whole includes your resurgent pen. The rotation is bad

[Bellhorn04]

Staff as a whole includes your resurgent pen. The rotation is bad

 

Kimmi specified 'starting staff'.

[Kimmi]

I always say it's ultimately players' game.

 

In reality, Bloom has done everything I've wanted.

 

Whitlock and Houck has progressed in our system. They look like keepers.

 

It remains to be seen where Pivetta falls in rotation. #2/#3 or #5. I'm leaning towards #5.

 

Darwinzon appears capable of giving us one inning off of clean start. Bases loaded, no out with runner on third? He may be

able to get you three strike outs. Or he may walk the winning run on 4 pitches.

 

Taylor can be solid lefty. Overall, he's had good year.

 

Kike has played the way I'd imagine Cora foresaw.

 

Renfroe is better than I expected.

 

Duran finally brought up. It's up to him to make some contact in order to help the team.

 

Dalbec was given plenty of opportunity. I don't think they'll give up on him but with his high K rate, what role does he have?

 

Arroyo will be solid addition to the team. Starting or off the bench, he's a gamer. Needs to stay healthy.

 

Vaz is Vaz. Unless we have someone better, we're stuck with him.

 

JD, Devers and Xander are our main offensive threat.

 

Just as we've upgraded our rotation from 20 to 21, improvements must be made to our starting rotation this off season.

 

It's been a tough week for Sox fans, no doubt. Losing is never fun, especially when the other teams in the division are winning. That said, every team will go through stretches like this during the season. Every single team. Every time the Sox have hit a little rough patch, they have bounced back nicely. Cora has a cool head on his shoulders. I don't like losing any more than anyone else does, but I am not concerned.

 

As far as Bloom is concerned, he is the man. I am very pleased with what he has done so far.

[Hugh2]

[Kimmi]

It's what happened during the week that changed the mood. The rotation continued to slide backwards, the hitting did too, the Jays split a series we thought the Sox would take (3-1), Bloom made no moves to bolster the pitching and could only come up with an injured outfielder (the Sox need a hitting first baseman) to help the lineup, and the Rays beat the Sox 7-3 and, worse, 9-5 in the Trop, the latter game with the Sox ace Eovaldi getting smacked around--as was Ottavino, Barnes' set-up man who is paid more than Barnes. Oh, and bring-up infielder Arauz had 2 errors last night.

 

To me the bad week fits the worst case scenario: the rotation sucks so badly the hitting can't make up the difference, and Bloom has signaled that this is not our year.

 

I am more pessimistic than you because I just don't see how the pitching is going to come around, but I also am grateful for a superb first 2/3 of the season, which was completely unexpected.

 

And this. Our two hotshot rookies, Dalbec and Duran, don't look like they are ready for MLB.

 

I also agree with moonslav's analysis of why Bloom didn't go after a really good starter: JH didn't want to go over the luxury tax limit, and Bloom didn't want to give up any of the Sox best prospects.

 

The timing of this mini slide coinciding with the trade deadline did not help the mood of most fans. It's tough to see our rival teams pick up players while the Sox seemingly didn't do as much. Perhaps the Sox didn't need to do as much?

 

At any rate, it's only one week. Next week could be a whole different story.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Watched last night with the sound off because I can't tolerate ARod, but one concerning graphic is that the Sox have the worst "Chase Rate" in the MLB. Does that stat mean swinging at pitches out of the zone? Does it include making contact or just swings and misses? Either way, it is worrisome for an offense lauded in the early months for its two-strike approach, choking up and going the other way to put the ball in play.

 

Right now, we are the Sultans of Swing and Miss. Chavis is gone, but Duran is here. Dalbec isn't going anywhere, at least until Schwarber suits up. Devers will always hack and hit, but JD, Bogie and Verdugo won't continue to be flailures.

 

For those too gloomy to look ahead, will Tampa always roll out dozens of relievers who all throw 96 and .220 hitters who homer in big spots vs. Boston? Always?

[Kimmi]

Sometime after the parade in 2018 , John Henry made a statement that he was tired of spending too much and losing money on the team. Nothing that has happened since then has indicated that he has changed his mind very much , if at all. I know we still have a high payroll, but there obviously is a tighter grip on the old debit card.

 

Not a tighter grip, necessarily. Just not the all out win at any cost approach that Dombrowski had. That was never a good philosophy and Henry knows that. He had a moment of weakness after the Sox finished in last place 3 out of 4 years. He has regained his senses and hopefully won't have a relapse. Henry will continue to spend and will spend big if the deal and time are right.

[jacksonianmarch]

The timing of this mini slide coinciding with the trade deadline did not help the mood of most fans. It's tough to see our rival teams pick up players while the Sox seemingly didn't do as much. Perhaps the Sox didn't need to do as much?

 

At any rate, it's only one week. Next week could be a whole different story.

 

There is an ebb and flow, but your starters are gassed. Sale coming back could be a mixed bag. Same with Houck. Right now you have two reinforcements coming which could help right the ship.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

At this point, Bobby Dalbec is in danger of being optioned to AAA.

 

He should have been replaced at the trade deadline. It was the simplest most obvious thing to do and yet Bloom couldn't get it figured out. Remarkable.

 

It will be difficult to demote him now, since they have no one to replace him with. I'm not seeing how that works. Who plays 1b? Cordero?

[Hugh2]

He should have been replaced at the trade deadline. It was the simplest most obvious thing to do and yet Bloom couldn't get it figured out. Remarkable.

 

It will be difficult to demote him now, since they have no one to replace him with. I'm not seeing how that works. Who plays 1b? Cordero?

 

He was replaced at the deadline, it's just not an immediate replacement.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Watched last night with the sound off because I can't tolerate ARod, but one concerning graphic is that the Sox have the worst "Chase Rate" in the MLB. Does that stat mean swinging at pitches out of the zone?

 

YES. The Red Sox lead the league in this. Kyle S. will help but more should have been done to address it at the trade deadline.

[moonslav59]

He should have been replaced at the trade deadline. It was the simplest most obvious thing to do and yet Bloom couldn't get it figured out. Remarkable.

 

It will be difficult to demote him now, since they have no one to replace him with. I'm not seeing how that works. Who plays 1b? Cordero?

 

Arroyo/Marwin?

[Fan_since_Boggs]

He was replaced at the deadline, it's just not an immediate replacement.

 

Maybe. But it would have made more sense to acquire a player who has actually played 1b. You can still acquire Kyle S.

[Hugh2]

Until Schwarber is ready I think you go with the Franchy/Dalbec platoon at first base. That will be much better than just Dalbec who has zero chance at hitting RHP. Dalbec is .561 against RHP vs. a .798 OPS vs. Lefties.

[mvp 78]

Until Schwarber is ready I think you go with the Franchy/Dalbec platoon at first base. That will be much better than just Dalbec who has zero chance at hitting RHP. Dalbec is .561 against RHP vs. a .798 OPS vs. Lefties.

 

Getting to that 730 OPS any day now............

[Bellhorn04]

Until Schwarber is ready I think you go with the Franchy/Dalbec platoon at first base. That will be much better than just Dalbec who has zero chance at hitting RHP. Dalbec is .561 against RHP vs. a .798 OPS vs. Lefties.

 

Cordero did not play at all against the Rays, which seems peculiar.

[mvp 78]

Called Franchy up just to try to deal him?

[Hugh2]

Cordero did not play at all against the Rays, which seems peculiar.

 

Yeah, I don't get it. He's 4/12 since coming back up. Insanely SSS but you hope his lifetime OPS vs. RHP plays up and you get a decent platoon with him and bobby until Schwarber is ready. That....would make sense to me.

[Bellhorn04]

Called Franchy up just to try to deal him?

 

.935 OPS in his last 8 games. Hmmm...

[a700hitter]

Called Franchy up just to try to deal him?

They never should have had him start the season with the big team. It ruined his value. He might have had some impressive #s at AAA if he had been there all season.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Until Schwarber is ready I think you go with the Franchy/Dalbec platoon at first base. That will be much better than just Dalbec who has zero chance at hitting RHP. Dalbec is .561 against RHP vs. a .798 OPS vs. Lefties.

 

I was confused as to why the Red Sox didn't pinch hit for Dalbec in the 7th inning last night before Dalbec's embarrassing 3-pitch strikeout against the RHP. Was Cordero hurt?

 

As was said above, you can only rely on Bogaerts, Devers, and the Red Sox's best hitters so much. At some point you need your less skilled hitters to produce as well and when your starting 1b has given you a 75 OPS+ through 4 months, that sort of thing has an impact on your ability to score runs.

 

The Red Sox have other problems but Dalbec is the most obvious one. The fact that he is still playing speaks to Bloom's failures at the trade deadline.

Edited August 2, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[mvp 78]

At this point, not having Franchy in against RHP is very questionable. Dalbec has been horrendous. Once a LHP exits the game, Dalbec should ride the bench.

[mvp 78]

I was confused as to why the Red Sox didn't pinch hit for Dalbec in the 7th inning last night before Dalbec's embarrassing 3-pitch strikeout. Was Cordero hurt?

 

As was said above, you can only rely on Bogaerts, Devers, and the Red Sox's best hitters so much. At some point you need your less skilled hitters to produce as well and when your starting 1b has given you a 75 OPS+ through 4 months, that sort of thing has an impact on your ability to score runs.

 

The Red Sox have other problems but Dalbec is the most obvious one. The fact that he is still playing speaks to Bloom's failures at the trade deadline.

 

They are obviously just trying to skate through this stretch until Arroyo and Schwarber and Marwin are all back. I'm not sure this is something that can work out. s***, I wanted them to call up Ockimey to platoon with Dalbec. That'd be better than just throwing Dalbec to the wolves.

[mvp 78]

They never should have had him start the season with the big team. It ruined his value. He might have had some impressive #s at AAA if he had been there all season.

 

He needed the reps though. They were hopeful that he could hit. Once he got on the field, it was that much harder to phantom IL him.

[Hugh2]

It's even more confusing because they gave Franchy all these reps down in AAA like this was the plan and now they're just not using him that way.

[moonslav59]

Kimmi specified 'starting staff'.

 

per fangraphs...

 

Sox rankings in Team SP'ing

 

fWAR

1. CWS 12.9

2. NYY 10.9

3. OAK 10.4

4. BOS 9.3

5. HOU 8.6

6. TBR 7.8 (Glasnow out all year)

10. TOR 5.0

12. SEA 4.4

 

(The Yanks are currently not a PO team, and Oak looks like a WC team.)

 

xFIP

1. CWS 3.80

2. TBR 3.87

3. LAA 3.98

4. TOR 3.99

T5. HOU 4.05

T5. BOS 4.05

T5. Oak 4.05

8. NYY 4.10

(Pretty bunched up)

 

BAbip

1. BOS .331 (a discredit to our D)

6. OAK .292

9. TOR .286

11. NYY .280

12. CWS .278

15. HOU .262

 

ERA-

1. CWS 79

2. HOU 85

3. TOR 87

T4. NYY 87

T4. OAK 87

6. TBR 95

8. BOS 102

 

We are 13th in WHIP at 1.39.

 

Also, can we stop saying our pen is over-worked. We have gone with 8 RP'ers most of the season, and our starters are 4th in the AL in IP.

 

Guys like Barnes may be on pace for narrowly breaking their season IP mark, but he is facing less batters and throwing less pitches to do so.

 

 

[moonslav59]

They are obviously just trying to skate through this stretch until Arroyo and Schwarber and Marwin are all back. I'm not sure this is something that can work out. s***, I wanted them to call up Ockimey to platoon with Dalbec. That'd be better than just throwing Dalbec to the wolves.

 

Ockimey has done real well after a slow first month.