A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[Nick]

Arguing over the benefits of strikeouts vs GIDPs is like arguing the benefits of a fatal stab wound vs those of a fatal gunshot…

 

I'll go with "which rather you have to die for $500, Alex"

 

What is fatal gunshot?

[notin]

I'll go with "which rather you have to die for $500, Alex"

 

What is fatal gunshot?

 

Miayim, not Alex…

[Nick]

Not sure if you can get Devers for $25M.....it's only two years away.

 

If defense is what we're looking for then you trade Devers for young arms, one major league ready and another on the way.

[Maxbialystock]

And the second everyone started to laud Dalbec's improved defense, he drops a few catchable balls.

 

He has time, but I think Casas is better. If the Sox are really wanting to compete, they need more complete players.

 

Dalbec's defense has clearly improved this season, and he can also hit (cumulative OPS of .822). Plus, if the Sox hang onto Schwarber, he can back up at 1b.

 

But the real point to me is this. Why haggle over who's better, Casas or Dalbec, when the real problem with this team is pitching? If Casas really has potential, I say trade him for a pitcher with potential.

[moonslav59]

Not sure if you can get Devers for $25M.....it's only two years away.

 

If defense is what we're looking for then you trade Devers for young arms, one major league ready and another on the way.

 

Maybe trading Bogey and one from Dalbec or Casas would work better, long term.

 

Bogey is gone after 2022.

[Bellhorn04]

I think arguing about hitting is silly when this team's obvious problem is with its pitching.

 

11 runs scored the last 4 games didn't help matters though.

[mvp 78]

I think arguing about hitting is silly when this team's obvious problem is with its pitching.

 

How many hits did they get last night?

[mvp 78]

Miayim, not Alex…

 

Yuck.

[mvp 78]

Dalbec's defense has clearly improved this season, and he can also hit (cumulative OPS of .822). Plus, if the Sox hang onto Schwarber, he can back up at 1b.

 

But the real point to me is this. Why haggle over who's better, Casas or Dalbec, when the real problem with this team is pitching? If Casas really has potential, I say trade him for a pitcher with potential.

 

Is that why he had no shot to catch those two balls in foul grounds?

[Nick]

How many hits did they get last night?

 

3, 2 were homers.

 

It's all or nothing with these guys....

[mvp 78]

3, 2 were homers.

 

It's all or nothing with these guys....

 

156 OBP as a team seems not good.

[iortiz]

The problem is not the O's/NAts. Problem is the Sox itself. Offense played yesterday like they didn't give a damn in every AB. Devers' ABs say it all. It's like they are still in knock out mode after the painful weekend.

 

Cora has to work on the mental thing ASAP.

[jad]

Considering a BABIP of 300, 50 additional balls in play would be 15 extra hits. I'd say that cancels out a theoretical increase in double plays.

 

Exactly. Putting a ball in play is better than a K because one of four of them is a hit. (Seems like some posters are defining 'putting a ball in play' as 'putting a ball in play for an out'. I agree totally that the concept of a 'productive out' is silly. Outs are bad.

[Bellhorn04]

Exactly. Putting a ball in play is better than a K because one of four of them is a hit. (Seems like some posters are defining 'putting a ball in play' as 'putting a ball in play for an out'. I agree totally that the concept of a 'productive out' is silly. Outs are bad.

 

In general outs are bad, but productive outs are a real thing, the most obvious example being a sacrifice fly.

[jad]

In general outs are bad, but productive outs are a real thing, the most obvious example being a sacrifice fly.

 

But that's the only one, and sometimes even that is way overrated. I can't stand seeing a guy hit a sac. fly in the 9th when the team is down a couple of runs and getting high 5s in the dugout. That is not a productive out in that situation. I'd be curious about the math in other situations--say, bases loaded, 0 outs. Should be a simple calculation, but I wouldn't be surprised to find that it's negative in that situation as well.

[Bellhorn04]

But that's the only one, and sometimes even that is way overrated. I can't stand seeing a guy hit a sac. fly in the 9th when the team is down a couple of runs and getting high 5s in the dugout. That is not a productive out in that situation.

 

I agree with your last 2 sentences.

 

There are other productive outs though. You're not a fan of the sacrifice bunt, I take it.

[moonslav59]

I have been very clear in stating that only if all other things are equal- like OBP and OPS, then what kind of outs are not much of a factor.

 

If Dalbec K's 200 times in 600 PAs and hits into 4 DPs. I'm not sure there is much difference from another player with the same OBP and OPS K'ing 150 times, hitting into 8-10 DPs, but in those 50 PAs where he put the ball in play for an out, it somehow helped the team by more than his extra DPs hurt the team.

 

How many Sac flies and grounders that move the runner over a base lead to runs? And, we're talking maybe 50-70 PAs, only.

 

Of course, it likely makes a difference, but how much? Does that difference make up for 4-6+ more DPs over a season?

[moonslav59]

Today's big games:

 

BOS (Eovalid) @ BAL (Lowther)

If we can't beat Lowther, we are in deep doo-doo.

 

NYY (Cole) @ TOR (Berrios)

I can't bring myself to root for the Yanks, so I'll call it hoping TOR loses.

 

A's (Go Frankie Montas) @ SEA (Gilbert)

This may be the M's toughest remaining game on their schedule.

[harmony]

Today's big games:

 

BOS (Eovalid) @ BAL (Lowther)

If we can't beat Lowther, we are in deep doo-doo.

 

NYY (Cole) @ TOR (Berrios)

I can't bring myself to root for the Yanks, so I'll call it hoping TOR loses.

 

A's (Go Frankie Montas) @ SEA (Gilbert)

This may be the M's toughest remaining game on their schedule.

Oakland righthander Frankie Montas is 0-1 with a 5.25 ERA in two starts against the Seattle Mariners this year.

 

FWIW the former Red Sox farmhand looked fairly strong when I saw Montas pitch last month:

 

MLB Gameday: Padres 4, Athletics 5 Final Score (08/04/2021) | MLB.com

WWW.MLB.COM

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Follow MLB results with FREE box scores, pitch-by-pitch strikezone info, and Statcast data for Padres vs. Athletics at Oakland Coliseum

 

The Athletics might be due: The Mariners have won 11 straight against the A's, the longest winning streak in MLB history against an opponent that was 10+ games over .500 entering every game of the streak.

 

[Bellhorn04]

How many Sac flies and grounders that move the runner over a base lead to runs? And, we're talking maybe 50-70 PAs, only.

 

A sac fly by definition leads to a run.

[dgalehouse]

Are we really debating whether it is better to put a ball in play than it is to strike out ?

[Bellhorn04]

Are we really debating whether it is better to put a ball in play than it is to strike out ?

 

No, it's about making outs on balls in play vs. by strikeout. And it's by no means a new debate.

[moonslav59]

A sac fly by definition leads to a run.

 

Can’t it be a sac fly from 2nd to 3rd?

[moonslav59]

Are we really debating whether it is better to put a ball in play than it is to strike out ?

 

No, but the goalposts are trying to be moved.

[notin]

Can’t it be a sac fly from 2nd to 3rd?

 

No. While that runner can advance, the hitter is credited with an at bat and does not get credit for a sac fly…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

No. While that runner can advance, the hitter is credited with an at bat and does not get credit for a sac fly…

 

But that ball in play still moved the runner up a base, unlike a K.

 

A DP can even score a runner; no RBI, but the run ain't scoring on a strikeout (unless Sanchez or Vazquez let the ball bounce to the backstop).

[jad]

I agree with your last 2 sentences.

 

There are other productive outs though. You're not a fan of the sacrifice bunt, I take it.

 

It's odd. But I remember reading an article in some sports mag. long long ago--mid-sixties, I think, pointing out (the math is easy) that the bunt sacrifice in and of itself was counter-productive (it only really got popular because it was used by pitchers, most of whom couldn't hit at all). I've thus never liked it, and MONEYBALL put the last nail in the coffin. That book (it was that book, wasn't it?), claimed it was only popular because of what it was called--the name sounded virtuous. To me, the most absurd scoring rule about the sacrifice is when a batter bunts trying to get a hit. If he is thrown out and it looks as if he were trying to get a hit, rather than deliberately trying to get an out, he doesn't get credit for a sacrifice! (That is ridiculous!) It is as if he was being too self-interested, and that (we know) is morally wrong. Why, then, not deny a batter credit for a sacrifice fly if it looks as if he were ACTUALLY trying to hit a home run or a base hit?

[moonslav59]

SEA (Gilbert) vs Oak (Montas) tonight

 

Tomorrow

BOS (Pivetta) @ Bal (Wells)

NYY (Kluber) @ Tor (RRay)

M’s off

[mvp 78]

SEA (Gilbert) vs Oak (Montas) tonight

 

Tomorrow

BOS (Pivetta) @ Bal (Wells)

NYY (Kluber) @ Tor (RRay)

M’s off

 

Need the Sox to win out and the Yanks to lose one.

[jacksonianmarch]

Need the Sox to win out and the Yanks to lose one.

 

You'd rather fight for the top spot than guarantee yourself a spot period? Makes little sense. If I was a sox fan, I would root hard for the Yanks tonight then hope they get swept by TB.