A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[mvp 78]

Richards was a gamble. JD resurgent from a down year at his age isn’t “sub norm”, it’s actually a plus.

 

You wanna know what the biggest win for the Sox is? Tell me, who was lost for the year, didn’t recover from an injury, didn’t have a horrible year who was counted on to be a stalwart? I’m waiting…..

 

The Sox had incredibly good health. Sale came back like he never missed a beat. ERod came back from heart inflammation and made it through the whole year (and his peripherals are dynamite). Schwarber was supposed to miss the month of august and he came back in 2 weeks. Nobody that was expected to be a main focus of the team had an off year. Even guys who started our s*****, like Dalbec, rebounded and have put together good seasons. The fact is, this Sox team, as constructed, should have had more tumult. Should have lost a pitcher to injury. Should have seen a position player miss time. Should have had a prime player have a down year. But they didnt.

 

So they are just healthy and not playing over their heads?

 

I'm fine with that assertion.

[dgalehouse]

The ups and downs of a Sox fan: The next time Garrett Richards pitches a scoreless inning : " Let's pick up his option and make him the closer." ..... Richards blows one big time: " Get rid of the bum."

[harmony]

Richards was a gamble. JD resurgent from a down year at his age isn’t “sub norm”, it’s actually a plus.

 

You wanna know what the biggest win for the Sox is? Tell me, who was lost for the year, didn’t recover from an injury, didn’t have a horrible year who was counted on to be a stalwart? I’m waiting…..

 

The Sox had incredibly good health. Sale came back like he never missed a beat. ERod came back from heart inflammation and made it through the whole year (and his peripherals are dynamite). Schwarber was supposed to miss the month of august and he came back in 2 weeks. Nobody that was expected to be a main focus of the team had an off year. Even guys who started our s*****, like Dalbec, rebounded and have put together good seasons. The fact is, this Sox team, as constructed, should have had more tumult. Should have lost a pitcher to injury. Should have seen a position player miss time. Should have had a prime player have a down year. But they didnt.

No one cares but ...

 

The Seattle Mariners lost to injuries three pitchers on the six-man rotation that opened the 2021 season. Injuries sidelined 2020 Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis and 2020 Gold Glove winner Evan White.

 

The Mariners' current standing is somewhat confusing ... perhaps that's why they call it Chaos Ball.

Edited October 1, 2021 by harmony

[moonslav59]

Richards was a gamble. JD resurgent from a down year at his age isn’t “sub norm”, it’s actually a plus.

 

You wanna know what the biggest win for the Sox is? Tell me, who was lost for the year, didn’t recover from an injury, didn’t have a horrible year who was counted on to be a stalwart? I’m waiting…..

 

The Sox had incredibly good health. Sale came back like he never missed a beat. ERod came back from heart inflammation and made it through the whole year (and his peripherals are dynamite). Schwarber was supposed to miss the month of august and he came back in 2 weeks. Nobody that was expected to be a main focus of the team had an off year. Even guys who started our s*****, like Dalbec, rebounded and have put together good seasons. The fact is, this Sox team, as constructed, should have had more tumult. Should have lost a pitcher to injury. Should have seen a position player miss time. Should have had a prime player have a down year. But they didnt.

 

Richards was about the same gamble as Kluber. We got about what was expected from him as you did with kluber.

 

JD, at age 33, should not have been expected to suck. The guy was from .879 to .1.066 for 6 straight years, including .939 in 2019. One can easily view the short 2020 season and his .680 OPS as an outlier. Sure, decline was expected, but not like that on a normal bell curve. His .870 OPS is not really out of line with a normally declining career:

 

1.066

1.031

.939

___ (2020)

.870

 

I can see the point that one might have projected .820 to .,850, but it's not like .870 is eye-poppingly great.

 

You are not the only one to mention we had great fortune with health, but you know, we also don't sign the same types of players Cashman signs.

 

We did have terrible results from Cordero, Santana and Marwin, but none got the chance to play FT to list them as big failure. Togther, they were expected to get over 650 PAs.

 

We don't have massive failures like the yanks had, this year but we do have a few moderate ones...

 

I would say Vaz was being counted on to at least his .750. He was near .800 his previous 2 years.

 

Players nearing prime usually improve- many of ours did not: Verdugo, Devers, Bogey to name a few.

 

Sure, ERod stayed healthy, but his first half was horrific. Not unexpected, maybe, but just because he wasn't on the IL for half the year, like Kluber, he was not himself.

 

The point made was we hardly had any "career years," and yet you claim we vastly outplayed what we showed on paper. Maybe you just underestimated how good guys like Whitlock, Houck, Dalbec, Kike, Renfroe, Pivetta and others were to begin with. Dalbec is actually doing worse than 2020. Houck missed time and did not reach the projected IP for 2021. Just because this does not compare to the losses the yanks suffered does not mean this team did not earn 88 wins.

 

We tried to tell you you might be wrong about Sale, but you would have nothing of it.

 

Schwarber missing 2 weeks was about what was expected. I'm not sure where the month thing came from. I heard 2-3 weeks.

 

BTW, we may not have missed any big names for long stints, but we imploded when we had 5-10 guys out on COVID protocols, all at once.

[mvp 78]

The ups and downs of a Sox fan: The next time Garrett Richards pitches a scoreless inning : " Let's pick up his option and make him the closer." ..... Richards blows one big time: " Get rid of the bum."

 

I liked Richards and even thought "just make him the closer" but I would not have them pick up the option. That's just too much money for him. You could decline the option and still bring him back at less money.

[moonslav59]

So they are just healthy and not playing over their heads?

 

I'm fine with that assertion.

 

That's basically his point.

 

He's seeing things from the perspective of a Yankee fan that sees tons of injuries, every year.

[notin]

The ups and downs of a Sox fan: The next time Garrett Richards pitches a scoreless inning : " Let's pick up his option and make him the closer." ..... Richards blows one big time: " Get rid of the bum."

 

 

Eh. Said about every closer ever…

[mvp 78]

That's basically his point.

 

He's seeing things from the perspective of a Yankee fan that sees tons of injuries, every year.

 

I know you like to be disagreeable, but jacko originally said "(the Sox) have played over their skis all year and it’s finally catching up with them in heart breaking fashion." His original statement had ZERO to do with health, but with production.

[mvp 78]

Eh. Said about every closer ever…

 

This is the way.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

 

The Sox had incredibly good health.

 

Right, it was incredible that they had a contagious virus rage through the team clubhouse/dugout/bullpen/airplane/bus smack-dab in the middle of a pandemic, three months after the vaccination was available to everyone over the age of 12.

[moonslav59]

I know you like to be disagreeable, but jacko originally said "(the Sox) have played over their skis all year and it’s finally catching up with them in heart breaking fashion." His original statement had ZERO to do with health, but with production.

 

I agree, and I countered his positions, apparently because I like to be disagreeable.

[mvp 78]

Right, it was incredible that they had a contagious virus rage through the team clubhouse/dugout/bullpen/airplane/bus smack-dab in the middle of a pandemic, three months after the vaccination was available to everyone over the age of 12.

 

That was a bit of them making their own luck since their vaccination rate was so low.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

That was a bit of them making their own luck since their vaccination rate was so low.

 

And IF they miss the postseason by one single game, hopefully people will look back at 2021 and point to the span when their $30 million dollar per year pitcher was forced to miss a start, and their $20 million dollar All-Star shortstop and clean-up man missed an entire week (not to mention their leadoff batter and others).

 

I know I will.

[mvp 78]

And IF they miss the postseason by one single game, hopefully people will look back at 2021 and point to the span when their $30 million dollar per year pitcher was forced to miss a start, and their $20 million dollar All-Star shortstop and clean-up man missed an entire week (not to mention their leadoff batter and others).

 

I know I will.

 

And on this, you can blame the players, the coaching staff AND management. The Sox clearly didn't take this seriously enough and it messed up their playoff push.

[moonslav59]

And on this, you can blame the players, the coaching staff AND management. The Sox clearly didn't take this seriously enough and it messed up their playoff push.

 

No doubt.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

And on this, you can blame the players, the coaching staff AND management. The Sox clearly didn't take this seriously enough and it messed up their playoff push.

 

Good point. Management and ownership owe it to -- not just the fans -- but also the nation and the world -- to cut the crap. And I do mean "cut" as in fire employees, including those in uniform, if they won't cooperate, to the detriment of the product in their business.

 

I don't care what the union forbids -- to me, it's worth a work stoppage by owners to negotiate common sense rules to ensure another preventable club-demic doesn't repeat itself.

[mvp 78]

Good point. Management and ownership owe it to -- not just the fans -- but also the nation and the world -- to cut the crap. And I do mean "cut" as in fire employees, including those in uniform, if they won't cooperate, to the detriment of the product in their business.

 

I don't care what the union forbids -- to me, it's worth a work stoppage by owners to negotiate common sense rules to ensure another preventable club-demic doesn't repeat itself.

 

All Boston Bruins staff and players were fully vaxxed prior to the upcoming season. Interesting that THEY could do it.

[moonslav59]

Max got me thinking about how this team's poor defense comes "at the expense" of our good offense. I'm not sure any other team can field a line-up of 9 guys with 170+ PAs all hitting over .737. If I wanted to get cute and start Schwarber at catcher, it could be 9 over .770:

 

1. .783 Kike CF

2. .965 Schwarber C

3. .877 Devers 3B

4. .860 Bogey SS

5. .870 JD DH

6. .826 Renfroe RF

7. .780 Dalbec 1B (Shaw .878)

8. .777 Verdugo LF

9. .770 Arroyo 2B (Iggy .893)

 

If you go with Plawecki .737 at catcher, you still have 9 over .737.

 

This begs the question: what good did it do us?

[moonslav59]

Good point. Management and ownership owe it to -- not just the fans -- but also the nation and the world -- to cut the crap. And I do mean "cut" as in fire employees, including those in uniform, if they won't cooperate, to the detriment of the product in their business.

 

I don't care what the union forbids -- to me, it's worth a work stoppage by owners to negotiate common sense rules to ensure another preventable club-demic doesn't repeat itself.

 

The selfishness of a few brought the team to its knees. It has to mentioned as part of this team's demise and reflects poorly on the team's attitude and leadership.

[moonslav59]

I know winning is all that matters, but here are a few stat sideshows to watch for...

 

2 HRs by JD gives us 3 players with 30+ HRs

 

2 Hrs by Bogey and 1 from Dalbec give us 5 players with 25+ HRs

 

JD is 1 RBI from 100 and just .007 behind the slumping Devers for the team OPS lead.

 

Dalbec needs a huge game or very nice last 3 games to get back over .800. (He's down to .789)

 

If we win, tonight, ERod ties Eovaldi with 19 team wins in games he started, this year.

 

[Bellhorn04]

Max got me thinking about how this team's poor defense comes "at the expense" of our good offense. I'm not sure any other team can field a line-up of 9 guys with 170+ PAs all hitting over .737. If I wanted to get cute and start Schwarber at catcher, it could be 9 over .770:

 

1. .783 Kike CF

2. .965 Schwarber C

3. .877 Devers 3B

4. .860 Bogey SS

5. .870 JD DH

6. .826 Renfroe RF

7. .780 Dalbec 1B (Shaw .878)

8. .777 Verdugo LF

9. .770 Arroyo 2B (Iggy .893)

 

If you go with Plawecki .737 at catcher, you still have 9 over .737.

 

This begs the question: what good did it do us?

 

Well, if I was arguing on behalf of the offense, I'd point out that we're 4th in the majors in runs scored, and 19th in runs allowed.

 

Therefore, I'd argue, we're only 19 games over .500 because of the offense.

 

But obviously there's a little more to it than that.

[moonslav59]

Well, if I was arguing on behalf of the offense, I'd point out that we're 4th in the majors in runs scored, and 19th in runs allowed.

 

Therefore, I'd argue, we're only 19 games over .500 because of the offense.

 

But obviously there's a little more to it than that.

 

Indeed, and if you believe BAbip is not related to defense, and only unearned runs matter, one can view the defense's affect as such:

 

We are 19th in runs allowed.

 

We are 15th in earned runs allowed.

 

That's significant but would not outweigh being 4th in runs scored.

 

[Bellhorn04]

Indeed, and if you believe BAbip is not related to defense, and only unearned runs matter, one can view the defense's affect as such:

 

We are 19th in runs allowed.

 

We are 15th in earned runs allowed.

 

That's significant but would not outweigh being 4th in runs scored.

 

 

I'm sure the BAbip is related to defense. An average BAbip would probably move us another 3 or 4 places maybe?

[moonslav59]

I'm sure the BAbip is related to defense. An average BAbip would probably move us another 3 or 4 places maybe?

 

I'd like to see OPSbip numbers, but 25 to 35 points in BA over the league average might make more of a difference than 3-4 places, but who knows?

 

It might move us up from 15th in earned runs allowed to possibly top 10.

[dgalehouse]

I'd like to see OPSbip numbers, but 25 to 35 points in BA over the league average might make more of a difference than 3-4 places, but who knows?

 

It might move us up from 15th in earned runs allowed to possibly top 10.

 

OPSbip? Ooofah.

[jad]

Good point. Management and ownership owe it to -- not just the fans -- but also the nation and the world -- to cut the crap. And I do mean "cut" as in fire employees, including those in uniform, if they won't cooperate, to the detriment of the product in their business.

 

I don't care what the union forbids -- to me, it's worth a work stoppage by owners to negotiate common sense rules to ensure another preventable club-demic doesn't repeat itself.

 

Well, I care what the union wants. And since the owners have a history of bargaining in bad faith, lying, hiding their books, collusion, etc., I would never side with them in anything.

 

(That said, the anti-vax stance is ridiculous and completely immoral; it's no surprise that the primary jackass in the NBA supporting this is a Flat Earther.)

Edited October 1, 2021 by jad

[moonslav59]

OPSbip? Ooofah.

 

BA is so passe.

 

Why wouldn't BAbip be as well?

 

Edited October 1, 2021 by moonslav59

[vegasbob]

We sent 5 guys to the A-S game based on the extraordinarily successful achievements of a lowly regarded team. Martinez, Devers, Barnes, Eovaldi, and Bogaerts went repping the Sox who at the time had about the best W-L record in both leagues. The only one of those who remained consistent was Nate Eovaldi, and even his W's only went from 9 to 11 on over 70 games . granted W's and L's are poor indicators of effectiveness for pitchers. Barnes went completely beserk, and the 3 amigo hitters all declined in production.

 

Covid vaxxing aside, makes me wonder what the real vibe in that clubhouse was between vets and rookies/AAAA'ers, pitchers/position players, the revolving door with WooSox, including many guys who were not part of the 2018 WS winners. Is the second half swoon due in part to poor team chemistry, or are these guys truly supportive teammates ?

[notin]

Weird sad fact:

 

It’s been one week since the Red Sox and over 50 innings since the Sox have scored more than 2 runs in an inning…

[harmony]

Weird sad fact:

 

It’s been one week since the Red Sox and over 50 innings since the Sox have scored more than 2 runs in an inning…

There you go ... 3-0.