A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[oldtimer]

Time to tighten up the laces and to play every pitch as though it may be the last. Grind it out, swing at good pitches, keep the line moving. All clichés, but going for a HR on every AB is the wrong approach and maybe why our offense has looked weak for a while now.

[Maxbialystock]

One of the strangest seasons I can recall. I had low expectations going in, after the sweep by the O's to start the season I had zero expectations. Then I saw a team with no production from the leadoff spot and absolute garbage in the last few spots in the lineup putting up runs and winning games at a high level. They gave me much more excitement than I ever expected in April.

 

Now here they are, 2 wins from the playoff and in game #161 they do not know who their closer is. Never seen a playoff team in that situation ever.

 

You may not realize it, but you have just described the brilliance of Alex Cora. He started the season with a terrific closer, who subsequently collapsed. But he had a good backup, a former closer, Ottavino, who from overwork or other reasons, has also become unreliable. So, as of this morning, Barnes--24, Ottavino--11, Robles-4, Richards-3, Whitlock-2, Andriese-1, Houck-1, Taylor-1, and Valdez-1 all have saves. His best outfielder is Kike, but he has had to play 2b off and on--and is so doing right now so that Cora can cram as many good bats as possible into a lineup with no DH (playing in a NL park).

[Maxbialystock]

Time to tighten up the laces and to play every pitch as though it may be the last. Grind it out, swing at good pitches, keep the line moving. All clichés, but going for a HR on every AB is the wrong approach and maybe why our offense has looked weak for a while now.

 

Meh. The "time" was the NYY series at Fenway, and the Sox flopped/choked. Now it's just a grind made harder because the thinned bullpen is playing their 6th game in 6 days, the hitting is still sporadic, and the defense somewhat less than reliable.

 

Only the rotation--which I alone have noticed--has manned up. Houck last night. ERod Friday. Not Pivetta Thursday. Eovaldi Wed. Sale Tuesday. ERod Sunday vs. NYY. Pivetta Sat vs. NYY. Emphatically not Eovaldi Fri vs. NYY.

 

Beyond any question the center of gravity for these Sox right now is the bullpen, which is a shadow of the Sox bullpen Apr-Jun and part of July. Barnes is lost. Whitlock, Taylor and Vazquez are on the IL or in Worcester. Ottavino is tired. Houck may have to start again. Richards, who was a great reliever for 9 games, ain't so great. Hernandez has control/confidence issues. Brasier, almost discarded, is now a key guy just as Robles is. Yet this struggling bullpen has to pitch about 4 innings of every game.

[moonslav59]

The ball lost in the lights was a bad break. But then he proceeded to walk the next 2 batters to load the bases' date=' then gave up the sac fly. This has been the issue all season, he never has a clean inning.[/quote']

 

I'n not defending him, nor do I want us bringing him back. I'm talking in general. So many posts are made about this guy or that blowing the game, when the guy got the batter to make very weak contact, but they fell for hits.

 

To me, a pitcher coming in with bases loaded and 2 outs, who gets three scorching line-outs may look good in the box score, but I trust him less than the guy who comes in and K's 2 then lets up a swinging bunt or bloop hit.

 

The first guys gets praises, maybe with some qualifiers, but teh second guy gets roasted.

 

To the RP'er who walks guys that lead to runs, even if cheap runs, I have less sympathy, but I still give him some credit.

[moonslav59]

With regard to pulling Houck, I believe they had a predetermined pitch count for him.

 

They had taken him out of the rotation to be a long reliever/spot starter.

 

He threw 30+ pitches on the 25th and 40+ on the 28th. He was on a whole new schedule.

 

In my opinion, it took guts by Cora to pull him there and stick to his plan.

 

100%

 

I'm not so sure the part about saving him for possible use on Tuesday out of the pen was a factor, but I think Cora knows what he's doing.

 

So many of his choices that were criticized over the year ended up working out well.

[moonslav59]

There are 8 combinations of wins and losses by the 4 teams with the Sox being one of the winners.

 

Assuming the Sox win, we are in with no need to play anyone to get to the WC game. The only real factor in who we'd play comes down to whether the Yanks win (we play them) or lose (we play the Yanks of a team that wins today then beats NY ina playin game.) If the Yanks lose and TOR & SEA win, it's a 3-way tie and they play it out to see who plays @ BOS. That's maybe the best scenario for us.

 

I hate to think negatively, but I'm going to go over each of those other 8 scenarios with us losing.

 

We Lose and the Yanks win:

Yanks are in.

TOR & SEA lose: we are in and play @ NY.

TOR or SEA win and the other loses: we play the winner and the winner plays @ NY.

TOR & SEA win to force a 3-way tie.

 

We lose and the Yanks lose:

TOR & SEA lose: NY plays @ BOS

TOR or SEA win: 3 way tie and we get the choice of slot.

TOR & SEA win: 4 way tie: somebody help me on this one!

 

What an end to the season.

 

I hate to give MLB credit for anything, but I like how they made all the game start times at the same time. That makes it fair.

 

 

 

 

[Larry Cook]

Game 162.

 

Offense goes to sleep and sale implodes!

[moonslav59]

Game 162.

 

Offense goes to sleep and sale implodes!

 

The game is far from over, but it does not look good..

[dgalehouse]

I guess it is fitting that it will be the Sox vs Yankees . It has been that way so many times over the years. I do feel a little bad for Toronto . They have a dynamic , explosive team , and it would have been interesting to see how they did in big games. They might have been a dangerous team in the playoffs.

[Maxbialystock]

Game 162.

 

Offense goes to sleep and sale implodes!

 

Hopeless. Cora should concede because nothing good can happen in the later innings..

[Maxbialystock]

I guess it is fitting that it will be the Sox vs Yankees . It has been that way so many times over the years. I do feel a little bad for Toronto . They have a dynamic , explosive team , and it would have been interesting to see how they did in big games. They might have been a dangerous team in the playoffs.

 

Jays got screwed by COVID and Canada.

[Maxbialystock]

Realistically, I think the Sox can win 92 games and get to the wild card game.

[moonslav59]

So, the Yanks and Sox end up with 92 wins. That's only 1 winless than the CWS, who play in an easy division and 3 less than the Astros, who played a tough schedule. The Rays blew everyone away with 100 wins.

 

I certainly want us to beat the Yanks. I think we can. We are at home. Recent trends may point to a loss, but where have recent trends ever been any good at predicting future trends, this wild season?

 

Sure, the Yanks got to Eovaldi the last time, but he is a gamer, and it was only 2 ER over 5 IP, and he has a 3.13 ERA vs the Yanks, this year (.605 OPS Against).

 

On the other hand, Cole has given up 3 ER in 6 IP and 3 ER in 5 IP his last 2 games vs the Sox. He has a 4.91 ERA vs the Sox in 2021 (.852 OPS Against)

 

[jacksonianmarch]

Realistically, I think the Sox can win 92 games and get to the wild card game.

 

Lol

[Larry Cook]

From the 4th worst record in baseball to the wild card game in one season is amazing,

 

In addition, we did it without making any Mega free agent signings.

 

Having Cora replace the old guy was worth a few wins. But the rest was achieved by adding a few medium free agents and a trade for scharwber!

 

Win or lose Tuesday, this has been an amazing season!

[moonslav59]

From the 4th worst record in baseball to the wild card game in one season is amazing,

 

In addition, we did it without making any Mega free agent signings.

 

Having Cora replace the old guy was worth a few wins. But the rest was achieved by adding a few medium free agents and a trade for scharwber!

 

Win or lose Tuesday, this has been an amazing season!

 

The Rule 5 Whitlock pick up helped.

 

Only Sawamura and Kike were more than 1 year deals.

[moonslav59]

We ended up with the 7th best record in MLB.

 

1 game from the 6th best (CWS).

 

2 games from the 4th best (HOU & MIL tied).

 

Think about that: w ins away from having the 4th best record in MLB.

 

This doesn't change the fact that we have some serious flaws on this team, but let's celebrate a season well-played!

[moonslav59]

Sox OPS Leaders in MLB

(Schwarber did not qualify but would have been 8th at .928)

20. Devers .890

27. JD .867

29. Bogey .863

(32. Betts .854)

50. Renfroe .816

66. Kike .786

70. Verdugo .772

 

Devers placed 10th in HRs with 38.

Devers placed 4th in RBI with 113. (JD 21st w 99.)

 

XBH

6. Devers 76

8 .JD 73

25. Renfroe 64

47. Bogey 58

47. Kike 58

 

[moonslav59]

Sox Leaders

 

OPS

.957 Schwarber (134 AB)

.915 Iggy (59)

.890 Devers

.867 JD M

.863 Bogey

.843 Shaw (42)

.816 Renfroe

.792 Dalbec

.786 Kike

.778 Verdugo

.769 Arroyo (164)

.737 Plawecki (157)

.659 Vazquez

.643 Arauz (65)

.597 Santana (116)

.578 Duran (107)

.567 Marwin (242)

.549 Chavis (79)

.497 Cordero (127)

 

ERA

1.50 Brasier 12 IP

1.96 Whitlock 73

3.06 Sawamura 53

3.16 Sale 43

3.38 DHern 40

3.40 Taylor 48

3.53 Houck 69

3.60 Robles 25

3.70 Rios 24

3.75 Eovaldi 182

3.79 Barnes 55

4.21Ottavino 62

4.53 Pivetta 155

4.74 Perez 114

4.74 ERod 158

4.87 Richards 137

 

 

K/BB

5.57 Eovaldi

4.76 Whitlock

4.33 Sale

4.20 Barnes

4.14 Houck

3.94 ERod

2.69 Pivetta

 

WHIP

1.10 Whitlock

1.11 Rios

1.12 Barnes

1.13 Houck

1.19 Eovaldi

1.30 Pivetta

1.33 Brasier

1.34 Sale

1.35 Valdez

1.36 Robles

1.39 ERod

 

 

[moonslav59]

OPS after All Star Break

.957 Schwarber

.955 Dalbec

.948 Santana (20 AB)

.915 Iggy

.862 Devers

.858 Renfroe

.843 Shaw

.833 Arroyo (16)

.832 Kike

.792 Plawecki

.787 Verduga

.787 JD

.761 Bogey

.660 Vaz

 

OPS v RHP

1.150 Schwarber

.978 Devers

.917 Iggy

.893 Verdugo

.889 JD

.887 Bogey

.843 Shaw

.777 Renfroe

.744 Kike

.730 Dalbec

.710 Vaz

.690 Plawecki

.685 Arroyo

 

vs LHPs

.911 Iggy

.885 Arroyo (had career reverse splits before)

.885 Renfroe

.878 Dalbec

.869 Schwarber

.850 Kike

.826 JD

.818 Bogey

.794 Plawecki

.750 Devers

.555 Vaz

 

 

ERA after ASB (25+ IP)

2.73 Whitlock

3.16 Sale

3.38 Houck

3.60 Robles

3.71 ERod

3.87 Eovaldi

4.80 Richards

4.91 Pivetta

6.48 Barnes

6.48 Ottavino

6.75 Perez

 

 

 

Edited October 4, 2021 by moonslav59

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

Whatever happens on Tuesday I'm still very happy with the season for reasons already posted. This is a terribly flawed team right now, but damned it was a fun season. When I reminded myself that we had a slow runner on first I said to Devers "well I guess you have to hit a homerun", which he did on the next pitch. Best moment of a great year for me. Or was it the triple by Vaz the night before? What a great series to end the season.

[moonslav59]

Whatever happens on Tuesday I'm still very happy with the season for reasons already posted. This is a terribly flawed team right now' date=' but damned it was a fun season. When I reminded myself that we had a slow runner on first I said to Devers "well I guess you have to hit a homerun", which he did on the next pitch. Best moment of a great year for me. Or was it the triple by Vaz the night before? What a great series to end the season.[/quote']

 

I meant to comment on that triple, too.

 

Vaz has really struggled, this year, but that was a huge hit.

[moonslav59]

I know wins are a team stat, but we all know who starts the game has a major impact on who wins. Yes, some pitchers get more runs support, or somehow spread their runs allowed around in such a way that they seem to get lucky with winning, despite having other numbers that show they should not be winning, so much.

 

With ERod, I have to think it goes beyond luck. Despite his flaws and missed 2020 season, the guy has led his team to victory at a better rate than perhaps anyone else in MLB since 2018.

 

19-12 in 2021 (we also won the big game he pitched in relief)

26-8 in 2019 (on a team that went 84-78)

19-4 in 2018

 

64-24 since 2018! That's a .727 winning %!!!

 

2021 Team Records:

7-2 Sale

19-12 ERod

19-13 Eovaldi (had some hard luck)

12-10 Perez

16-14 Pivetta (about what you want from your #5)

7-6 Houck

11-11 Richards

 

Notice how no Sox starter with more than one start had a losing record in games started!

 

Edited October 4, 2021 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

Brad Peacock 0-1.

 

Kutter Crawford 0-1.

[moonslav59]

2nd Half OPS Against

.569 Houck

.694 Eovaldi

.728 ERod

.746 Pivetta

.752 Sale

.780 Richards

 

.615 Rios

.641 Taylor

.650 Whitlock

.692 Robles

.742 Brasier

.751 Valdez (one big meltdown game)

.772 DHern

.773 Davis

.875 Barnes

.883 Sawamura

.948 Ottavino

.963 Perez

[moonslav59]

OPS

.957 Schwarber (7 Hrs & 18 RBI in 168 PAs)

.915 Iglesias (64 PAs and soid D)

.842 T Shaw (48 PAs & a couple mammoth hits)

1.262 Motter (7 PA, but one big error)

 

OPS Against

.615 Rios (98 PAs)

.692 Robles (109)

.773 Davis (75)

.819 Feliz (just 19)

.864 Workman (93)

1.021 Peacock (just 26)

 

[mvp 78]

@redsoxstats

Red Sox team offensive ranks (non-pitchers)

2nd Barrel Rate

4th Batting Avg

6th Isolated Power

6th Fewest Groundballs

7th Zone Swings

8th wRC+

8th Hard Contact

9th On-Base Percentage

13th Strikeout Rate

21st Walk Rate

22nd Ultimate Base Running

28th Chase Rate

[iortiz]

This team as I predicted early in the season surprised most of us. They won 92 games in a very tight race in the end. It was literally a dogfight. You could feel the pressure in every pitch and AB specially in the last 2 series. Some players however were not the same in the second half. My guess? this team will hold way less pressure than others and that could help us a lot.

 

Playoffs is another chapter and anything can happen. IMO Bloom and Cora are the main reason we are where we are. Sure, still there's a lot to improve but at least the future looks in good hands.

[moonslav59]

@redsoxstats

Red Sox team offensive ranks (non-pitchers)

2nd Barrel Rate

4th Batting Avg

6th Isolated Power

6th Fewest Groundballs

7th Zone Swings

8th wRC+

8th Hard Contact

9th On-Base Percentage

13th Strikeout Rate

21st Walk Rate

22nd Ultimate Base Running

28th Chase Rate

 

Good stuff.

 

Fangraphs has us finishing...

 

2nd in SLG .449

2nd in BAbip .309

3rd in OPS .777

3rd in wOBA .333

4th in ISO .188

5th in Runs (1 behind LAD)

6th in Hard Hit% 33%

8th in fWAR by everyday players at 23.8

21st in Baserunning

23rd in Defense -15.6

 

Pitching

6th fWAR 19.2 (ahead of TBR & HOU)

6th HR/9 1.12

7th K% 24.8%

T8th xFIP- 95 (TOR 95, NYY 93, TBR 93)

10th ERA- 94

10th xFIP 4.07

11th K-BB% 16%

 

The most stunning stat, in terms of the distance between #1 and #2 and #1 and the league average:

 

BAbip Against

.323 BOS

.305 BAL, LAA

.302 COL, PIT

.301 KCR

.290 MLB Average

#15 .289 KCR

 

We finished the year 33 points above the league average!

 

All-in-all, one can argue we were a top 3-6 offensive team, a top 9-12 Pitching team and a bottom 20-28 defensive team.

 

Edited October 4, 2021 by moonslav59

[iortiz]

If we had finished with a top 10 defense we would have won what? 97-100 games?