A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[mvp 78]

You'd rather fight for the top spot than guarantee yourself a spot period? Makes little sense. If I was a sox fan, I would root hard for the Yanks tonight then hope they get swept by TB.

 

Yes, I'd rather have the #1 spot and a game at home than the #2 spot and a game on the road.

[moonslav59]

SEA gains or loses a half game, tonight, based on what the other 3 teams do, then it's 3 games left for everyone.

 

90-68 NYY WC1+1

 

89-69 BOS WC1 -1/ WC2 +0.5

89-70 SEA WC1-1.5/ WC2 -0.5

88-70 TOR WC1 -2/ WC2 -1.0

 

Tonight:

NYY (Kluber) @ TOR (R Ray)

BOS (Pivetta) @ BAL (Wells LHP)

(SEA off)

 

Friday:

BOS (ERod) @ WSH (Rogers LHP)

TBR (TBD) @ NYY (Cortes)

BAL (TBD) @ TOR (TBD)

LAA (TBD) @ SEA (Gonzalez)

 

Saturday:

TBR @ NYY

BAL (Means) @ TOR

BOS (???) @ WSH (J Gray RHP)

LAA @ SEA (Flexen)

 

Sunday:

BOS (Sale?) @ WSH

TBR @ NYY

BAL (Zimmerman) @ TOR

LAA @ SEA (Anderson)

[Maxbialystock]

SEA gains or loses a half game, tonight, based on what the other 3 teams do, then it's 3 games left for everyone.

 

90-68 NYY WC1+1

 

89-69 BOS WC1 -1/ WC2 +0.5

89-70 SEA WC1-1.5/ WC2 -0.5

88-70 TOR WC1 -2/ WC2 -1.0

 

Tonight:

NYY (Kluber) @ TOR (R Ray)

BOS (Pivetta) @ BAL (Wells LHP)

(SEA off)

 

Friday:

BOS (ERod) @ WSH (Rogers LHP)

TBR (TBD) @ NYY (Cortes)

BAL (TBD) @ TOR (TBD)

LAA (TBD) @ SEA (Gonzalez)

 

Saturday:

TBR @ NYY

BAL (Means) @ TOR

BOS (???) @ WSH (J Gray RHP)

LAA @ SEA (Flexen)

 

Sunday:

BOS (Sale?) @ WSH

TBR @ NYY

BAL (Zimmerman) @ TOR

LAA @ SEA (Anderson)

 

Helpful, thanks. I forgot the Sox play their final 6 in a row, so must go back to a 5 man rotation.

 

For Saturday, I would definitely start Houck, the most recent starter from the bullpen who also, however, seems to be losing his command.

 

As for Sunday, assuming the Sox are still competitive for the home field for the wild card game, I would definitely start Sale. Too soon for Eovaldi plus I want him for the wild card game. If Sunday is for a wild card slot period, it will in any case be all hands on deck, and we have seen Eovaldi relieve before (2018 WS vs the Dodgers).

[moonslav59]

Helpful, thanks. I forgot the Sox play their final 6 in a row, so must go back to a 5 man rotation.

 

For Saturday, I would definitely start Houck, the most recent starter from the bullpen who also, however, seems to be losing his command.

 

As for Sunday, assuming the Sox are still competitive for the home field for the wild card game, I would definitely start Sale. Too soon for Eovaldi plus I want him for the wild card game. If Sunday is for a wild card slot period, it will in any case be all hands on deck, and we have seen Eovaldi relieve before (2018 WS vs the Dodgers).

 

We might start Seabold with Houck and Whitlock standing in the wings.

 

Hopefully, we won't need Sale on Sunday.

[Maxbialystock]

It's odd. But I remember reading an article in some sports mag. long long ago--mid-sixties, I think, pointing out (the math is easy) that the bunt sacrifice in and of itself was counter-productive (it only really got popular because it was used by pitchers, most of whom couldn't hit at all). I've thus never liked it, and MONEYBALL put the last nail in the coffin. That book (it was that book, wasn't it?), claimed it was only popular because of what it was called--the name sounded virtuous. To me, the most absurd scoring rule about the sacrifice is when a batter bunts trying to get a hit. If he is thrown out and it looks as if he were trying to get a hit, rather than deliberately trying to get an out, he doesn't get credit for a sacrifice! (That is ridiculous!) It is as if he was being too self-interested, and that (we know) is morally wrong. Why, then, not deny a batter credit for a sacrifice fly if it looks as if he were ACTUALLY trying to hit a home run or a base hit?

 

Nice paragraph. I personally like bunts even since reading a short story from 70 years ago entitled, "Lay It Down, Ziggy." It was about a sideshow act by an incredible bunter named Ziggy, who could bunt with incredible precision and even put spin on the ball causing it to bounce unexpectedly. One day a baseball scout spotted him, and he was sent straight to a club, where he excelled as a pinch-bunter (he had no other skills). Late in the season, his team is in the hunt for the postseason and going against a really good pitcher named Sloppy Jones because his uniform was a very loose fit. The opposing manager brought his infield and outfield way in to ensure any bunt would be quickly fielded for an out. Ziggy, before batting at a crucial point late in the game, does a quick survey of the field in front of him and the positioning of the players, including of course Sloppy Jones. On the first pitch, he bunts the ball near Sloppy Jones, who quickly moves to field the ball, which, however, takes a weird bounce and ends up inside Sloppy's shirt. Two runners come home to win the game before Sloppy and his teammates can find the ball.

 

Bunting is a skill the few players have for the simple reason that having that skill don't pay the rent. Better to strike out half the time and hit maybe a dinger every 3d or 4th game. Also, bunting looks easy because you don't have to swing the bat, but in fact is not easy.

 

With every team now using bold shifts for most hitters, bunting should be making a come back, but of course it isn't.

[harmony]

Growing up a Minnesota Twins fan this poster remembers the Twins with a one-game lead over the Red Sox with two games remaining at Fenway Park the final weekend of the 1967 season. The Red Sox swept their way into the World Series.

 

This poster is no stranger to disappointment.

 

The Seattle Mariners caught a break this weekend when the Los Angeles Angels scratched Shohei Ohtani from his scheduled Sunday start.

 

The Mariners will send Marco Gonzales, Chris Flexen and Tyler Anderson to the mound for the three-game home stand against the Angels. Gonzales is 7-0 with a 2.57 ERA over his last 11 starts. Flexen had a 3.67 ERA in 30 starts this year. Anderson has a 4.50 ERA in 12 starts with the Mariners despite giving up nine earned runs in two innings on Saturday (Anderson came back with four solid innings Tuesday on only two days rest).

 

Regardless of how the season ends for the Mariners, the September run has provided valuable experience for rookies Jarred Kelenic, Logan Gilbert, Jake Fraley and Cal Raleigh. Fraley and Kelenic had critical two-run doubles in the pair of 4-2 wins over the Athletics on Tuesday and Wednesday. After Wednesday's outing Gilbert has a 2.70 ERA in six September starts and may get the call if the Mariners advance to a play-in or Wild Card game.

 

Let the games begin.

Edited September 30, 2021 by harmony

[mvp 78]

Growing up a Minnesota Twins fan this poster remembers the Twins with a one-game lead over the Red Sox with two games remaining at Fenway Park the final weekend of the 1967 season. The Red Sox swept their way into the World Series.

 

This poster is no stranger to disappointment.

 

When did you switch from the Twins to the Mariners?

[harmony]

When did you switch from the Twins to the Mariners?

I switched from the Twins to the World Series-bound Royals in 1980 while attending law school 200 miles from Kansas City. I switched to the Colorado Rockies for their inaugural 1993 season after living in the Rocky Mountain West for six years. I switched to the Mariners for their magical 1995 season after moving to the Pacific Northwest shortly before the strike ended the 1994 season.

[moonslav59]

I switched from the Twins to the World Series-bound Royals in 1980 while attending law school 200 miles from Kansas City. I switched to the Colorado Rockies for their inaugural 1993 season after living in the Rocky Mountain West for six years. I switched to the Mariners for their magical 1995 season after moving to the Pacific Northwest shortly before the strike ended the 1994 season.

 

Do you still feel loyalties to your ex teams?

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

I switched from the Twins to the World Series-bound Royals in 1980 while attending law school 200 miles from Kansas City. I switched to the Colorado Rockies for their inaugural 1993 season after living in the Rocky Mountain West for six years. I switched to the Mariners for their magical 1995 season after moving to the Pacific Northwest shortly before the strike ended the 1994 season.

 

I could never switch teams. Unless it's a situation like the Colts moving out of Baltimore to me you pick a team when you are 8 and that's your team for life, win or lose. I would never change simply because I lived near a team that was good at the time. That just seems so wrong to me.

 

In fact I tried a few years ago. The then Redskins were hopeless and with Snyder I know that won't ever change. So I tried to be a Ravens fan, they do it the right way. But my heart just wasn't in it, I could not undo 50 years of allegiance to my team.

Edited September 30, 2021 by Yaz Fan Since '67

[harmony]

Do you still feel loyalties to your ex teams?

Not especially.

 

The Padres are my favorite National League team because of my wife's roots in San Diego. I have two adult daughters, one in Oakland and one in San Diego, so I follow those teams even if my daughters don't.

[moonslav59]

Someone mentioned on the game thread, last night, that it seemed like Eovaldi has half our Quality Starts.

 

He does have 13 (41% or all his starts and 33% of all Sox QS's), but other have significant amounts:

 

9 ERod (30%)

8 Pivetta (28%)

(Perez and Richards have 4 or 18% each.)

 

What I find interesting is how many near QS's pitchers had, this year. I'll simplify my earlier criteria to include these numbers as "near QS:)

 

8 IP 0-4 ER

5 IP 0-2 ER

4 IP 0-1 ER

 

Here are those numbers:

21 Eovaldi (Team is 19-13 in his 32 starts)

15 ERod (Team is 18-12 in his 30 starts)

12 Pivetta (Team is 16-13 in his 29 starts)

12 M Perez (Team is 12-10 in his 22 starts) Had one start of 3.2 IP 0 ER

8 Richards (Team is 11-11 in his 22 starts)

6 Sale (Team is 6-2 in his 8 starts) Had one 3.2 IP 1 ER and one 5.1 IP 3 ER start.

 

75% Sale

66% Eovaldi

55% Perez

50% ERod

41% Pivetta

36% Richards

 

I guess the surprises would be Perez being so high, and Pivetta being so low.

 

[moonslav59]

Not especially.

 

The Padres are my favorite National League team because of my wife's roots in San Diego. I have two adult daughters, one in Oakland and one in San Diego, so I follow those teams even if my daughters don't.

 

I used to live in Milwaukee, and I was there when the Seattle Pilots moved to Milwaukee. I lived very close to the stadium and became a big Brewer fan.

 

When my family move to Maine, and my favorite player, Tommy Harper, was traded to the Sox, I switched to Boston (at age 12.)

 

The Brewers nearly won a ring before my Sox, but I don't really feel any left over loyalty to them.

 

I do still root for the Bucks and Packers.

[moonslav59]

I could never switch teams. Unless it's a situation like the Colts moving out of Baltimore to me you pick a team when you are 8 and that's your team for life, win or lose. I would never change simply because I lived near a team that was good at the time. That just seems so wrong to me.

 

In fact I tried a few years ago. The then Redskins were hopeless and with Snyder I know that won't ever change. So I tried to be a Ravens fan, they do it the right way. But my heart just wasn't in it, I could not undo 50 years of allegiance to my team.

 

I couldn't do it, now, but I did switch at age 12. I only had a couple of years being a Brewer fan, but I think I was more a Harper fan, since the rest of the team sucked.

 

The Bucks and Packers were great while I was in Milwaukee.

[harmony]

I couldn't do it, now, but I did switch at age 12. I only had a couple of years being a Brewer fan, but I think I was more a Harper fan, since the rest of the team sucked.

 

The Bucks and Packers were great while I was in Milwaukee.

Adaptability can be an asset.

 

Still I have been in a marriage for 27 years, the same job for 25 years and the same house for 19 years.

 

I don't follow football much but I pull for my childhood favorite college team against the university where I have two advanced degrees when the two Big Ten rivals meet each November. Perhaps that's loyalty.

[mvp 78]

@PeteAbe

Whitlock now throwing in the bullpen. That suggests he could be ready as soon as Saturday.

[moonslav59]

@PeteAbe

Whitlock now throwing in the bullpen. That suggests he could be ready as soon as Saturday.

 

After so much time off, you wonder what role he might be used in- first time back.

[mvp 78]

After so much time off, you wonder what role he might be used in- first time back.

 

Reliever

[moonslav59]

Reliever

 

LOL

 

7th inning?

Closer?

2-3 innings?

1 inning?

1-2 batters?

Edited September 30, 2021 by moonslav59

[MADSTORK]

Dalbec has a .925 OPS since June 10.

 

Maybe he’s no longer the streaky “all or nothing” guy we continue to think he is?

 

 

Fools gold

You trade the player for value while you can

 

Dalbec similar to JBJ long swing not enough bat speed- JBJ had value because of the gold glove defense

[MADSTORK]

Assumption College wins the series 2 1 Priceless

 

What’s the excuse heading into the final series?

[moonslav59]

Fools gold

You trade the player for value while you can

 

Dalbec similar to JBJ long swing not enough bat speed- JBJ had value because of the gold glove defense

 

Like clockwork.

 

You only come out at the lowest points of the season.

[illinoisredsox]

Like clockwork.

 

You only come out at the lowest points of the season.

 

Don't feed the trolls.

[moonslav59]

Don't feed the trolls.

 

Good advice.

[jacksonianmarch]

I’ve said it from day 1, this Sox team isn’t that good. They have played over their skis all year and it’s finally catching up with them in heart breaking fashion. But the fact that the Sox are still sitting in a PO spot with 3 games left is a testament to Cora’s leadership.

 

That being said, I think this off-season will be a massive shakeup. Bloom comes from the analytics side and bad defense is just not tolerated and the Sox defense is just atrocious. I think Bogey gets traded, Devers moves to 1b, Dalbec backs up 1b and 3b while taking some reps at DH and the brass secretly hope JD opts out. OF starts with Kike in CF and CF alone. Vaz has his option declined and the Sox sign a defense first catcher with a good game calling reputation. You’ll see a lot of movement to ultimately build a team that can sustain a winning culture and not a flash in the pan, should be 4th place team.

[jad]

I have never rooted for the Patriots; to me, they are an AFL team. The only games on tv when I was growing up were the Giants, whom I hated bec. they were from NY. SO I developed an allegiance to everyone who played against them: my fav. teams remained for years the Browns, Eagles, and (after Dallas came into the league) Green Bay. Now, much as I love the NFL, the teams I root for change from week to week.

[moonslav59]

I’ve said it from day 1, this Sox team isn’t that good. They have played over their skis all year and it’s finally catching up with them in heart breaking fashion. But the fact that the Sox are still sitting in a PO spot with 3 games left is a testament to Cora’s leadership.

 

That being said, I think this off-season will be a massive shakeup. Bloom comes from the analytics side and bad defense is just not tolerated and the Sox defense is just atrocious. I think Bogey gets traded, Devers moves to 1b, Dalbec backs up 1b and 3b while taking some reps at DH and the brass secretly hope JD opts out. OF starts with Kike in CF and CF alone. Vaz has his option declined and the Sox sign a defense first catcher with a good game calling reputation. You’ll see a lot of movement to ultimately build a team that can sustain a winning culture and not a flash in the pan, should be 4th place team.

 

I agree with everything, here, except your “from day one” thing. You changed your view when the Sox were riding high and your guys were imploding, but it’s no biggie.

 

I appreciate an outsiders view, but I’ll never be able to wish you luck.

 

I’m hoping you implode like you have several times, this year.

 

With the right moves, this winter, even you will change your view about 4th place.

[jacksonianmarch]

I agree with everything, here, except your “from day one” thing. You changed your view when the Sox were riding high and your guys were imploding, but it’s no biggie.

 

I appreciate an outsiders view, but I’ll never be able to wish you luck.

 

I’m hoping you implode like you have several times, this year.

 

With the right moves, this winter, even you will change your view about 4th place.

 

With the way this season has gone for the Yankees, nothing will surprise me. They could lose the next 3 and a play in for the POs or they could ride their deep pen and suddenly resurgent lineup to the World Series. It’s been the strangest year for the Sox Yankee rivalry. This wasn’t supposed to be close. Yanks were the pick to click for the WS. Sox were still building. Prior to the Yanks opened a can in Fenway, it had been utterly frustrating as a Yankee fan and I’m sure entirely surprising as a Sox fan

[mvp 78]

I’ve said it from day 1, this Sox team isn’t that good. They have played over their skis all year and it’s finally catching up with them in heart breaking fashion. But the fact that the Sox are still sitting in a PO spot with 3 games left is a testament to Cora’s leadership.

 

That being said, I think this off-season will be a massive shakeup. Bloom comes from the analytics side and bad defense is just not tolerated and the Sox defense is just atrocious. I think Bogey gets traded, Devers moves to 1b, Dalbec backs up 1b and 3b while taking some reps at DH and the brass secretly hope JD opts out. OF starts with Kike in CF and CF alone. Vaz has his option declined and the Sox sign a defense first catcher with a good game calling reputation. You’ll see a lot of movement to ultimately build a team that can sustain a winning culture and not a flash in the pan, should be 4th place team.

 

Kiké career year

Xander average year

Raffy average year

JD average year to slightly below average year

Renfroe on par with 18 and 19 so average year

Verdugo average year (last year seems to be abberation)

Vaz below average year

Schwarber average year

Dalbec streaky, who knows what to expect one day to the next

 

Sale has been ok since returning

Eovaldi career year

ERod average year

Pivetta average year

Richards even worse than expected

Perez whatever

 

Not sure there is much to say about the pen.

 

So aside from Eovaldi and Kiké, who are these guys that are playing above their heads exactly? I think you just massively underrated this team and it's hard for you to say so.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Red Sox may wind up with 90 wins and say they "exceeded expectations" this year, but they also receded expectations the past week falling flat on their faces. A baseball season is a marathon -- and a mediocre first half and successful second half could still produce the same record -- but just as a big kick at the finish provides hope for the future, so does wiping out produce despair.

 

The pitching may have gagged against the Yankees, but those are the Bronx Bombers. But there's no excuse for Richards throwing wild pitches vs. Baltimore, or Pivetta grooving one to the Orioles' main power guy with first base open (Mountcastle: the same rookie who beat Sale).

 

The bottom line is that the offense, particularly Boston's star hitters, have just given up by literally giving up at bats. They're supposed to be fighting for a playoff berth and no one works the count to get a good pitch to hit (except Schwarber)?

 

The Sox scored 12 runs in the last game of their winning streak, and have 13 total runs in five losses since. Three runs or less per game isn't going to win anything... unless someone can find a time machine and go back to 1968.