A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[jacksonianmarch]

Ah, sorry. Didn’t realize they had an off day. That’s even worse for the Sox. The Halos have packed it in. The A’s still have a mathematical shot at the POs

[mvp 78]

2 solo HRs, again. This pattern is killing us.

 

Errors and non errors on playable hits, too.

 

I know we broke the team record for 3-run HRs in a season, but we need a few more, and pronto!

 

I had hoped Sale was ready to be "pushed" to an extra inning, but sadly that was not the case.

 

Houck doesn't look the same, either. I'm not sure a returning Whitlock is going to do any better.

 

I'm glad we have Eovaldi going, tonight, despite his last start, but it might all come down to Richards and Taylor.

 

It would be nice to get up by 6 or 7, but at this point, that seems like fantasy.

 

How about just not relying on HR's and just string a few hits together?

[oldtimer]

2 solo HRs, again. This pattern is killing us.

 

Errors and non errors on playable hits, too.

 

I know we broke the team record for 3-run HRs in a season, but we need a few more, and pronto!

 

I had hoped Sale was ready to be "pushed" to an extra inning, but sadly that was not the case.

 

Houck doesn't look the same, either. I'm not sure a returning Whitlock is going to do any better.

 

I'm glad we have Eovaldi going, tonight, despite his last start, but it might all come down to Richards and Taylor.

 

It would be nice to get up by 6 or 7, but at this point, that seems like fantasy.

 

Three hits all night and as you say, 2 HRs with nobody on base. Devers missed a playable ball. If we can't beat the O's we don't deserve a PO spot.

[moonslav59]

How about just not relying on HR's and just string a few hits together?

 

A novel idea.

[mvp 78]

A novel idea.

 

It's one of the reasons why Casas is a better option at 1b than Dalbec even if we're talking 4/1/22.

[mvp 78]

The future looks better with guys with good bat to ball skills like Mayer, Casas and Yorke. All or nothing players like Renfroe and Dalbec are why we go on extended slumps.

[moonslav59]

It's one of the reasons why Casas is a better option at 1b than Dalbec even if we're talking 4/1/22.

 

You are making a big assumption.

 

Career minor league OBP:

 

.368 Casas

 

.362 Dalbec (only .315 since May 7th, but .395 since AUG 6)

[moonslav59]

The future looks better with guys with good bat to ball skills like Mayer, Casas and Yorke. All or nothing players like Renfroe and Dalbec are why we go on extended slumps.

 

Renfroe's .320 OBP is not all that bad, but yes, someone .350+ would be nice, even if we lose 10-15 HRs.

[moonslav59]

We have an offense that puts 8 batters with a .780+ OPS in the line-up everyday. There is no reason we can't score, except that we seem to be slumping.

 

Time for the bats to wake up and take the pressure off our staff.

[jad]

The future looks better with guys with good bat to ball skills like Mayer, Casas and Yorke. All or nothing players like Renfroe and Dalbec are why we go on extended slumps.

 

I tend to agree with that (even though I really like both those players). But won't both of us get vilified because this seems to privilege Old School stats like BATTING AVERAGE?

[Bellhorn04]

I tend to agree with that (even though I really like both those players). But won't both of us get vilified because this seems to privilege Old School stats like BATTING AVERAGE?

 

The Red Sox have a team BA of .261.

The Rays have a team BA of .241.

[mvp 78]

You are making a big assumption.

 

Career minor league OBP:

 

.368 Casas

 

.362 Dalbec (only .315 since May 7th, but .395 since AUG 6)

 

Now look at their k%'s. Dalbec loves having lots of unproductive at bats. Also, I'm willing to overlook growing pains from 2 years ago. Casas has almost a 400 OBP this year.

[mvp 78]

The Red Sox have a team BA of .261.

The Rays have a team BA of .241.

 

That's how the numbers play out. Maybe the Rays are just luckier as a whole? It just FEELS like they string hits together better than the Sox do. Maybe it's just a deeper lineup? IDK.

[jad]

That's how the numbers play out. Maybe the Rays are just luckier as a whole? It just FEELS like they string hits together better than the Sox do. Maybe it's just a deeper lineup? IDK.

 

The RS are scoring plenty of runs. I suppose it doesn't really matter how. The problem, from a quick glance at the standings, seems to be Runs Against, which is neither surprising nor something that was not expected.

[mvp 78]

I tend to agree with that (even though I really like both those players). But won't both of us get vilified because this seems to privilege Old School stats like BATTING AVERAGE?

 

I think walking and putting the ball in play aren't mutually exclusive. I was just saying that I don't really like Dalbec's all or nothing approach. Casas also has big power, but he's able to really make better contact and have more productive at bats.

[mvp 78]

The RS are scoring plenty of runs. I suppose it doesn't really matter how. The problem, from a quick glance at the standings, seems to be Runs Against, which is neither surprising nor something that was not expected.

 

Well, yes, 2017 Sale doesn't give up that HR to Mountcastle. I think people need to come to terms with what Sale is now.

[moonslav59]

Now look at their k%'s. Dalbec loves having lots of unproductive at bats. Also, I'm willing to overlook growing pains from 2 years ago. Casas has almost a 400 OBP this year.

 

I would bet Casas ends up with a significantly better OBP than Dalbec, but I just wanted to point out the risk of counting on it.

 

K's don't bother me, if the player produces. The whole "productive outs" thing is overblown and rare, especially if more Ks reduce GIDPs.

[mvp 78]

I would bet Casas ends up with a significantly better OBP than Dalbec, but I just wanted to point out the risk of counting on it.

 

K's don't bother me, if the player produces. The whole "productive outs" thing is overblown and rare, especially if more Ks reduce GIDPs.

 

So Dalbec k'ing 4 times is as good as a player putting the ball in play 4 times? How many GIDP's do you think are avoided by Dalbec k'ing badly?

[moonslav59]

So Dalbec k'ing 4 times is as good as a player putting the ball in play 4 times? How many GIDP's do you think are avoided by Dalbec k'ing badly?

 

About as many as Casas's pop outs and groundout advance a runner and he scores. Close anyway.

 

Plus, it's not like Casas never K's. We are talking about the difference in Ks and GIDP vs balls put in play that advance a runner AND leads to an extra run. Pretty obscure, I think.

 

maybe it's a 33% K rate by Dalbec to 25% by Casas. That's 8 more Ks every 100 PAs. Bobby Dee might hit into 1 less DP every 100 PAs. How many balls in play make up that difference? If they do, it's not by much.

Edited September 29, 2021 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

About as many as Casas's pop outs and groundout advance a runner and he scores. Close anyway.

 

Plus, it's not like Casas never K's. We are talking about the difference in Ks and GIDP vs balls put in play that advance a runner AND leads to an extra run. Pretty obscure, I think.

 

I think you're just being obstinate.

[notin]

It's one of the reasons why Casas is a better option at 1b than Dalbec even if we're talking 4/1/22.

 

Dalbec has a .925 OPS since June 10.

 

Maybe he’s no longer the streaky “all or nothing” guy we continue to think he is?

[moonslav59]

I think you're just being obstinate.

 

Show me how putting the ball in play vs striking our 8% more is such a great asset?

 

Then, subtract the double or more GIDP's Casas hits into. Now how much does it matter?

 

I never said putting the ball in play is equal to a K. I just said it's value is overblown, and why not prove me wrong? Where's the data?

 

BTW, saying Dalbec K's 4 times can be viewed as obstinate.

[notin]

Well, yes, 2017 Sale doesn't give up that HR to Mountcastle. I think people need to come to terms with what Sale is now.

 

Sale has made 8 starts in the past 25 months. Did we not expect rust and durability issues?

[mvp 78]

Dalbec has a .925 OPS since June 10.

 

Maybe he’s no longer the streaky “all or nothing” guy we continue to think he is?

 

Maybe? Time will tell. I'm hopeful for Dalbec and want to keep him around.

 

Past 5 games:

 

0 BB%, 61.5 K%, 385 OPS, -14 WRC+

[mvp 78]

Sale has made 8 starts in the past 25 months. Did we not expect rust and durability issues?

 

I'm not sure what to expect. I think we need to temper expectations for him going forward. He's 32 and hasn't pitched 160 Innings since 2017. Will he return to the ace we saw 3-4 years ago? Hard to say.

[mvp 78]

Show me how putting the ball in play vs striking our 8% more is such a great asset?

 

Then, subtract the double or more GIDP's Casas hits into. Now how much does it matter?

 

I never said putting the ball in play is equal to a K. I just said it's value is overblown, and why not prove me wrong? Where's the data?

 

BTW, saying Dalbec K's 4 times can be viewed as obstinate.

 

Did he not K 4 times on Sunday?

 

If I make a statement and you say "well you're wrong." It's up to you to prove me wrong. You haven't.

 

I prefer a guy who puts the ball in play. I'm not sure why you think that's such a controversial statement. It definitely has more sound reasoning that some of the stuff you've put out there before.

[notin]

I'm not sure what to expect. I think we need to temper expectations for him going forward. He's 32 and hasn't pitched 160 Innings since 2017. Will he return to the ace we saw 3-4 years ago? Hard to say.

 

I think “Elite Sale” is, at best, something we only see occasionally. But certainly I expected pitch counts and lots of limits and rapid onsets of fatigue followed by reduced effectiveness this season…

Edited September 29, 2021 by notin

[notin]

Maybe? Time will tell. I'm hopeful for Dalbec and want to keep him around.

 

Past 5 games:

 

0 BB%, 61.5 K%, 385 OPS, -14 WRC+

 

And over that “stretch”, has he been better or worse than Bogaerts and Devers?

[notin]

Maybe? Time will tell. I'm hopeful for Dalbec and want to keep him around.

 

Past 5 games:

 

0 BB%, 61.5 K%, 385 OPS, -14 WRC+

 

 

Other fun numbers.

 

Since the arbitrarily chosen date of June 10

 

Dalbec: .925 OPS

Devers: .870 OPS

Bogaerts: .825 OPS

 

Not sure why the rush to bring up Casas. If nothing else, Dalbec has at least bought himself time…

[moonslav59]

Did he not K 4 times on Sunday?

 

If I make a statement and you say "well you're wrong." It's up to you to prove me wrong. You haven't.

 

I prefer a guy who puts the ball in play. I'm not sure why you think that's such a controversial statement. It definitely has more sound reasoning that some of the stuff you've put out there before.

 

Wow, Dalbec sucks because of Sunday.

 

I prefer a ball put in play over a K, too, but to what degree does it outweigh the other aspects of a player's offense.

 

Everything else being even, sure, I'd take the guy who K's 150 times over the 200K guy, even if he hits in 6 DPs vs 3, but my point is the difference is so slight.

 

I'm not even sure the 3 extra DPs outweighs the moving runners up on an out.

 

I know I can be pretty stubborn, but I have been known to change my opinion when confronted with evidence.

 

Here is some evidence:

 

GIDP

 

Dalbec 3 in 537 MLB PAs/ 28 in 1609 minor league PAs

(31/2146 or 1 every 69 PAs)

 

Casas: 17 in 856 PAs

(1 every 50 PAs)

Edited September 29, 2021 by moonslav59