Clay Buchholz - Is he worth the 2016 option?

[moonslav59]

There were better options last offseason, there will be better options this offseason. However, I don't think picking up the option precludes them from grabbing another FA arm or two. If they don't load up in the pen, they are fools.

 

I think all their available funds will be needed to stock up on RP'ers and possibly LF/corner IF depth.

 

If we want to stay near the luxury limit, we'll have about $30M to spend. That should get us 2 really good RP'ers and a decent one.

[Kimmi]

So about that option that nobody but me thought would get picked up...

 

Clay has pitched better recently, which makes it more likely that the option is picked up. If he had continued to pitch poorly, picking up the option is a whole other story.

[Wade Boggs]

If he keeps pitching the way he is the option gets picked up. If not it doesn't. They can still pick it up and trade him. Something tells me he will get his money one way or another. All teams are desperate for pitching . He can get a 2 year deal at about 24M, just being a tease. I say 60/40 they pick it up. Then what they do after is anybody's guess.

[Kingface]

No. Seen this movie too many times. Take that $$ and get 2 REAL RP's.

[cp176]

No. Seen this movie too many times. Take that $$ and get 2 REAL RP's.

 

I don't know if I agree with you, but I appreciate the feeling for sure. Might be time to just turn the page on this one.

[moonslav59]

I've been one of Buch's biggest supporters over the years, but I'm with Kingface on this one. I'm done with the hopes and prayers- often dashed.

 

We can spend the money on more durable, stable and consistent pitchers.

 

If we determine other teams would pay the $13.5M, which I think someone would for just a 1 year gamble, then take the option and trade him for the best we can get, even if it's just a good single A player.

 

I wouldn't be upset, if we keep him, but the $13M ($13.5M option - $0.5M buyout) would be a big chunk of our winter spending budget.

 

[southpaw777]

If Buch finishes the season strong you absolutely pick up the option and then trade him. There was still interest in him this year from other teams even pitching the eay he was. GMs look at his stuff, a low 13M salary, and will think change of scenery will do him good...Sox would be foolish to not to do so, IF he does well the rest of the way.

[moonslav59]

Agreed. Let some one else deal with the worry.

[Emp9]

Last season Buch had a nice 1st half (barring a few early games if I remember correctly). I thought it was a no brainer to pick up his option for this year. This season I'm on the fence about picking up his last option. You can make some arguments either way. Last Season=No brainer, This Season= Shoulder Shrug.

[mvp 78]

If Buch finishes the season strong you absolutely pick up the option and then trade him. There was still interest in him this year from other teams even pitching the eay he was. GMs look at his stuff, a low 13M salary, and will think change of scenery will do him good...Sox would be foolish to not to do so, IF he does well the rest of the way.

 

If they pick up the option, they aren't trading him.

[Jack Flap]

Color me skeptical that, even with a strong September, anyone would want him bad enough at $13.5 million to give up anything of much significance. It's not like other teams are unaware of his history, and pcking up his option and only to have to eat some of it or trade him for pennies on the dollar would kind of defeat the whole purpose.

[Slasher9]

shoot...right now might be the time to buy low on him and sign him to a cheap LTC.....

[mvp 78]

shoot...right now might be the time to buy low on him and sign him to a cheap LTC.....

 

If he were on the FA market maybe. He won't get there though.

[moonslav59]

If they pick up the option, they aren't trading him.

 

Agreed.

 

But they should.

 

Just like they should have last winter.

[Bellhorn04]

If Wright is done for the year and Clay pitches well in his place we'll be thankful we have him. Big if, of course.

[mvp 78]

Agreed.

 

But they should.

 

Just like they should have last winter.

 

But they won't. What's the point in discussing it if there's no way it'll happen?

[Slasher9]

But they won't. What's the point in discussing it if there's no way it'll happen?

 

so that posters can post "i told you so" when he fails or put up little signatures like "DFA Clay"

[mvp 78]

There was more of a chance of him getting DFA'd than having his option picked up just so that they could trade him.

[sk7326]

If Wright is done for the year and Clay pitches well in his place we'll be thankful we have him. Big if, of course.

 

Will make getting to October a challenge - I doubt Wright cracks the playoff rotation either way.

[Jack Flap]

This is the hell of the Clay Buchholz experience... just when you're ready to give up and kick him to the curb, he gives you just enough hope to justify keeping him around, even though you know very well that hope is going to be crushed all over again in due time.

 

Best-case scenario from here: he finishes the season on a high note, gets the option picked up, and has an ace-like first half of 2017 (which his career pattern would suggest he's due for), and then we trade him at next year's deadline for a top prospect or two from some poor sap of a GM.

[moonslav59]

This is the hell of the Clay Buchholz experience... just when you're ready to give up and kick him to the curb, he gives you just enough hope to justify keeping him around, even though you know very well that hope is going to be crushed all over again in due time.

 

Best-case scenario from here: he finishes the season on a high note, gets the option picked up, and has an ace-like first half of 2017 (which his career pattern would suggest he's due for), and then we trade him at next year's deadline for a top prospect or two from some poor sap of a GM.

 

If he's off to a great start in 2017, we won't trade him, but I share your opinion.

 

I'd actually sign him and trade him before the season starts, but I seriously doubt that happens.

[S5Dewey]

This is the hell of the Clay Buchholz experience... just when you're ready to give up and kick him to the curb, he gives you just enough hope to justify keeping him around, even though you know very well that hope is going to be crushed all over again in due time.

 

Best-case scenario from here: he finishes the season on a high note, gets the option picked up, and has an ace-like first half of 2017 (which his career pattern would suggest he's due for), and then we trade him at next year's deadline for a top prospect or two from some poor sap of a GM.

 

Yeah. I knew a woman like that once. I've always liked Clay because his upside is huge. I've always thought that his problems are from the neck up rather than mechanical, which I've seen as a good thing for a patient team.

 

I like your best-case scenario and IMO it's very realistic, all except the part about trading him at the deadline next year. If he's pitching well in July of '17 we're going to want him around, and if he's not pitching well no GM is going to take on his contract for a stretch run. But that option is looking better all the time.

[moonslav59]

Yeah. I knew a woman like that once. I've always liked Clay because his upside is huge. I've always thought that his problems are from the neck up rather than mechanical, which I've seen as a good thing for a patient team.

 

I like your best-case scenario and IMO it's very realistic, all except the part about trading him at the deadline next year. If he's pitching well in July of '17 we're going to want him around, and if he's not pitching well no GM is going to take on his contract for a stretch run. But that option is looking better all the time.

 

I'm not saying mental or emotional issues aren't affecting Buch's production, but there really is no way to know that for sure.

 

He's been hurt a lot, and it seems like his poor performance periods are always immediately before or after an injury with missed time. He's either hurt or recovering from an injury. When he's not, he does great almost all of those (few) times.

[mvp 78]

I think "mental problems" are overstated for MLB players. You won't be pitching in MLB for very long if you aren't mentally tough.

[S5Dewey]

I think "mental problems" are overstated for MLB players. You won't be pitching in MLB for very long if you aren't mentally tough.

 

I'm not talking about "the yips". I'm talking about things like ADHD and things more serious than that. Things that affect concentration. I've often wondered (with ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to back this up) whether certain players get a little 'help' from psychotropic drugs provided by the FO as needed.

[southpaw777]

If they pick up the option, they aren't trading him.

 

Depends on what they can get for him.

With that said, i wasn't advocating trading him. Actually Ive been saying since his first time back from the pen that he should be back in the rotation. To me he looks like a different pitcher. It looks like The bullpen did do him some good...another 6.2 IP 7-8 hits and 1-2 runs...a healthy Clay whos in a groove is just what this rotation needs right now.

Edited September 8, 2016 by southpaw777

[Slasher9]

sign him to a LTC. forget trading. forget DFAing. forget moving on. i look forward to "Clay Day" in 2025 when they add number 11 to the outfield facade.

[sk7326]

Yeah. I knew a woman like that once. I've always liked Clay because his upside is huge. I've always thought that his problems are from the neck up rather than mechanical, which I've seen as a good thing for a patient team.

 

I like your best-case scenario and IMO it's very realistic, all except the part about trading him at the deadline next year. If he's pitching well in July of '17 we're going to want him around, and if he's not pitching well no GM is going to take on his contract for a stretch run. But that option is looking better all the time.

 

I don't think it is anything psychological or anything. He is basically a golfer who can drown in swing thoughts at times. Overcomplicate the mechanics and stuff. He has ace stuff, always has ... but doesn't always let it fly. At this point he is what he is - but for stretches, that can be pretty darn good.

[a700hitter]

so that posters can post "i told you so" when he fails or put up little signatures like "DFA Clay"

There is a better chance of see him on the grounds crew some day than having his number retired.

[Slasher9]

There is a better chance of see him on the grounds crew some day than having his number retired.

 

why oh why didnt we just DFA him 2 months ago!!!!????!!!!