Clay Buchholz - Is he worth the 2016 option?

[sk7326]

I agree on your Medlen & Ontiveros assessments.

 

On the "sustainability" of Buch's Stretches, I will say that he has had prolonged stretches of over a season long.

 

Here's a look:

 

Not only was the 2010 season's 28 starts of near total brilliance, despite some peripherals that indicate some luck may have been involved, he followed that season up with a very respectable 14 starts in 2011 before the injury.

 

That's 28 +14 straight starts with a combined ERA of under 2.90. (256 IP and 42 GS'd)

 

His best stretch was 2013, and he had actually has a very decent 2nd half of the prior year (2012). He had a 3.76 ERA in his final 15 starts of 2012 (103 IP). That number would have been much better without his last start of 1.2 IP and 8 ER, but it was what it was... a decent ending. He followed the second half of 2012 with 16 of his best starts of his career (1.74 ERA in 108 IP). Combined, that's 31 starts in a row with 211 IP and a combined ERA of under 2.80.

 

So, two stretches: one of 42 starts and the other 31 starts of very effective pitching.

 

 

Arbitrary end points aside, the total package is fine - the production has not necessarily been reliable, and (since I like baseball) his starts are often not fun to watch. It is maddening but a steal at the price.

[Wade Boggs]

Agreed. Who would have thought. I'm in the middle of all of this. I want to pick up the club opp if he pitches like this. I don't see a lot of F/A pitching that's says go get this guy. So at 13m you have to pick it up. The other thing to think about ,if you pick it up you might get his best year heading into free agency for that last contract... Old Clay is teasing me again. I think right now 60/40 it gets picked up.

[a700hitter]

If Clay continues to pitch like this, the Red Sox should pick up his option and trade him. He is just too frail to be reliable. I don't see that changing with Buch.

[mvp 78]

If Clay continues to pitch like this, the Red Sox should pick up his option and trade him. He is just too frail to be reliable. I don't see that changing with Buch.

 

That will NEVER happen. It makes no sense to pick up a guy's option to trade him. The return would be dismal at best. Unless you are struggling to field a roster down in Greenville, there's no point in picking up the option just to try an unload him.

[sk7326]

You pick up the option because in the Red Sox context, it basically costs them nothing

[a700hitter]

That will NEVER happen. It makes no sense to pick up a guy's option to trade him. The return would be dismal at best. Unless you are struggling to field a roster down in Greenville, there's no point in picking up the option just to try an unload him.

I would only do it if he rebuilt substantial trade value down the stretch and in the playoffs.

[moonslav59]

That will NEVER happen. It makes no sense to pick up a guy's option to trade him. The return would be dismal at best. Unless you are struggling to field a roster down in Greenville, there's no point in picking up the option just to try an unload him.

 

It makes sense, if you don't want him at $13M and you'd rather get a decent A ball player or better over getting nothing at all.

 

We got Marco Hernandez for Doubront. I'd think we could get something similar or better for Buch, assuming he ends the season well.

 

I agree, it is highly unlikely we sign and trade.

[Bellhorn04]

I would only do it if he rebuilt substantial trade value down the stretch and in the playoffs.

 

And if he does that you pretty much have to keep him. Sort of a Catch-22.

[a700hitter]

And if he does that you pretty much have to keep him. Sort of a Catch-22.

Not at all. We have enough history with him to know that he is frail and can't be relied upon for a full season. This of course would affect his trade value, but whatever we get in return should cost us nothing.

[Bellhorn04]

Not at all. We have enough history with him to know that he is frail and can't be relied upon for a full season. This of course would affect his trade value, but whatever we get in return should cost us nothing.

 

He's pretty valuable to us right now...having him as a #6 pitcher/swing man for 13 million is a nice luxury...the Sox can afford it.

[a700hitter]

He's pretty valuable to us right now...having him as a #6 pitcher/swing man for 13 million is a nice luxury...the Sox can afford it.

I know that we can afford it. That is not the issue. The issue would be allocating a starting rotation spot to a guy who we know will only give us half a season. I would rather go in a different direction and get someone who can give us 30 starts.

[moonslav59]

He's pretty valuable to us right now...having him as a #6 pitcher/swing man for 13 million is a nice luxury...the Sox can afford it.

 

Maybe not.

 

I doubt henry wants to pay a 50% luxury tax rate, so we'll have about $30-35M to spend this winter and rest the tax scale for the future. We may try to fill the 1B/DH slot, but we certainly will need to fill 2-3 pen slots.

 

If we spend $13M on Buch, that doesn't leave much for the other high need areas.

[mvp 78]

And if he does that you pretty much have to keep him. Sort of a Catch-22.

 

If he's worth it to another team at $13.5M, he's worth it here. It doesn't make any sense to pick up the option and trade him.

[Spudboy]

I know that we can afford it. That is not the issue. The issue would be allocating a starting rotation spot to a guy who we know will only give us half a season. I would rather go in a different direction and get someone who can give us 30 starts.

 

I said this last year.

 

Nothing has changed. He is not worth the roster spot or the 13.5 mil.

 

No if it were possible to re-sign him for a few million with incentive that would be nice.

[mvp 78]

Maybe not.

 

I doubt henry wants to pay a 50% luxury tax rate, so we'll have about $30-35M to spend this winter and rest the tax scale for the future. We may try to fill the 1B/DH slot, but we certainly will need to fill 2-3 pen slots.

 

If we spend $13M on Buch, that doesn't leave much for the other high need areas.

 

Honestly, I don't see them picking up a DH this offseason. I bet they try to work Pablo in as a DH/3B guy.

[mvp 78]

I said this last year.

 

Nothing has changed. He is not worth the roster spot or the 13.5 mil.

 

No if it were possible to re-sign him for a few million with incentive that would be nice.

 

Who is worth $13M though? If he's a guy you want on your roster, you just pick up the option.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe not.

 

I doubt henry wants to pay a 50% luxury tax rate, so we'll have about $30-35M to spend this winter and rest the tax scale for the future. We may try to fill the 1B/DH slot, but we certainly will need to fill 2-3 pen slots.

 

If we spend $13M on Buch, that doesn't leave much for the other high need areas.

 

Starting pitching depth can be an extremely high need. It sure was this year.

[sk7326]

Pitching is the need ... there are no other high need areas. $13M for a decent pitcher is a solid value.

[moonslav59]

Who is worth $13M though? If he's a guy you want on your roster, you just pick up the option.

 

If we find someone else we want for $13M or less over Buch, there's reason to sign and trade Buch.

 

If we don't care about going over the limit, then fine, keep Buch for starting/LR depth and sign 2-3 RP'ers and Encarnacion.

[moonslav59]

Pitching is the need ... there are no other high need areas. $13M for a decent pitcher is a solid value.

 

$13M gets two proven, healthy RP'ers.

[sk7326]

$13M gets two proven, healthy RP'ers.

 

Maybe - spending a ton of money on relievers makes me puke in my mouth. There is - on some level - no such thing as proven RPs.

[mvp 78]

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/relief-pitcher/

 

Which 2 relief pitchers, exactly?

[moonslav59]

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/relief-pitcher/

 

Which 2 relief pitchers, exactly?

 

I'm not an expert on other teams' RP'ers, but maybe Boone Logan and Ziegler could be had for $7-9M combined.

 

Maybe we could apply the $13M towards Jansen or Chapman.

[moonslav59]

Maybe - spending a ton of money on relievers makes me puke in my mouth. There is - on some level - no such thing as proven RPs.

 

There's no such thing as a proven Buchholz either, and speaking of puking, I've already puked enough concerning Clay over the last few years to fill a 50 gallon barrel.

[mvp 78]

I'm not an expert on other teams' RP'ers, but maybe Boone Logan and Ziegler could be had for $7-9M combined.

 

Maybe we could apply the $13M towards Jansen or Chapman.

 

We already have a premium closer. It would be silly to add Jensen or Chapman.

 

Ziegler has already stated that he's going back to AZ due to family reasons.

 

The point I'm trying to make is that it's really hard to split $13M into 2 pitchers that are better or more versatile than Buchholz. You could get one guy that's better and add a Matt Albers, but people would still complain "why'd we bring in Fat Albers again?"

[Eddy Ballgame]

We already have a premium closer. It would be silly to add Jensen or Chapman.

 

Ziegler has already stated that he's going back to AZ due to family reasons.

 

The point I'm trying to make is that it's really hard to split $13M into 2 pitchers that are better or more versatile than Buchholz. You could get one guy that's better and add a Matt Albers, but people would still complain "why'd we bring in Fat Albers again?"

 

I agree. I'm a big fan of throw a bunch of s*** at the wall and see what sticks when it comes to the bullpen, especially when you already have an established closer. Middle relievers are pretty volatile from year to year.

 

Maybe "one" veteran guy like a Ziegler at 6 or 7 million could work, but not two. Ziegler is obviously going back home, so who knows who that guy could be at this point. My guess is they'll trade for some help in the pen, as the rotation seems pretty set.

[S5Dewey]

We already have a premium closer. It would be silly to add Jensen or Chapman.

 

Ziegler has already stated that he's going back to AZ due to family reasons.

 

The point I'm trying to make is that it's really hard to split $13M into 2 pitchers that are better or more versatile than Buchholz. You could get one guy that's better and add a Matt Albers, but people would still complain "why'd we bring in Fat Albers again?"

 

We do. But unfortunately he's >40 years old and a FA after this year. Assuming he's back at full strength, that is.

 

I have no problem picking up Buch's option @ $13.5M. Price is getting more than 2X that for ace quality and is expected to pitch a full season. $13.5M for a half season of Buch is fair enough, the gamble being that he still has his ace stuff. If he finishes the season strong that's a chance I would take.

[moonslav59]

We already have a premium closer. It would be silly to add Jensen or Chapman.

 

Ziegler has already stated that he's going back to AZ due to family reasons.

 

The point I'm trying to make is that it's really hard to split $13M into 2 pitchers that are better or more versatile than Buchholz. You could get one guy that's better and add a Matt Albers, but people would still complain "why'd we bring in Fat Albers again?"

 

No way we'd ever get anyone better than Buch for $13M, but it's the durability and stability aspect I'd be converting to happily.

 

Like I said, I don't know much about the RP'er available, but pick a name out of a hat and you'll get better consistency and stability. You could probably get 3 for the price of Buch, plus whatever we get back in trade.

 

Again, I seriously doubt it happens, but if I were the GM, I'd do it.

 

Plus, I think we can get better than a single A player.

 

I'm not sure if Melancon would be okay with 8th inning duty, but WTF, we're paying Kimbrel $13M, why not make him the number 2?

 

[Bellhorn04]

No way we'd ever get anyone better than Buch for $13M, but it's the durability and stability aspect I'd be converting to happily.

 

Like I said, I don't know much about the RP'er available, but pick a name out of a hat and you'll get better consistency and stability. You could probably get 3 for the price of Buch, plus whatever we get back in trade.

 

Again, I seriously doubt it happens, but if I were the GM, I'd do it.

 

Plus, I think we can get better than a single A player.

 

I'm not sure if Melancon would be okay with 8th inning duty, but WTF, we're paying Kimbrel $13M, why not make him the number 2?

 

 

Without Buchholz, though, we have absolutely no depth in starting pitching. That is why he is valuable right now.

[a700hitter]

Without Buchholz, though, we have absolutely no depth in starting pitching. That is why he is valuable right now.

He's only valuable depth if he is healthy. Most seasons at this time he is rehabbing for the next season. We have been lucky that he sucked so much in the first half that he didn't pitch his quota of innings needed to get injured.