Clay Buchholz - Is he worth the 2016 option?

[a700hitter]

why oh why didnt we just DFA him 2 months ago!!!!????!!!!

Why did you want him DFA'd?

[mvp 78]

Why did you want him DFA'd?

 

No, he just thought Price and Buchholz were the same pitcher for some reason.

[a700hitter]

No, he just thought Price and Buchholz were the same pitcher for some reason.

LOL! Maybe he still does.

[Bellhorn04]

Clay is more Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde than any pitcher I've ever seen. Beckett was somewhat like that too but Clay is the champ.

[a700hitter]

Clay is more Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde than any pitcher I've ever seen. Beckett was somewhat like that too but Clay is the champ.

Beckett had great years and terrible years, but he rarely mixed the 2 in the same season like Buch does.

[Slasher9]

Why did you want him DFA'd?

 

i didnt. because: not dumb.

[Slasher9]

LOL! Maybe he still does.

 

nope. i have more confidence in Clay.....

[a700hitter]

i didnt..

I fixed it for you ^

[moonslav59]

Beckett had great years and terrible years, but he rarely mixed the 2 in the same season like Buch does.

 

Buch is the one that rarely mixes good with bad in the same season. He might do great then get hurt, but this is the first season I know of where he started out one way and ended the other (and he hasn't ended this one well, yet.).

[Bellhorn04]

Buch is the one that rarely mixes good with bad in the same season. He might do great then get hurt, but this is the first season I know of where he started out one way and ended the other (and he hasn't ended this one well, yet.).

 

In 2012, just to mix things up, his good stretch was mid-season, from about mid-May to mid-August.

[moonslav59]

2008: Buch sucked all year.

2009: Buch only pitched the second half and was okay.

2010: Buch pitched very well all season long (2.20 first half vs 2.45 ERA second half- one of MLB's best ERA- seasons of all time)

2011: Buch only pitched the first half and did good.

2012: Buch went 8-2 in the first half but had a 5.53 ERA/ 2nd half 3-6 3.76

2013: Buch had one of the best ERA- seasons of all time, 1.71 in 12 starts/1.88 in 4 starts (He missed the mid season)

2014: Buch sucked all year: 5.42/5.26

2015: Buch was very good until he got hurt (3.26 then DNP)

2016: Buch sucked first half (5.91) but has done well this half (2.95)

 

I guess you could say 2012 was a split season, but the 8-2 record kind of smoothed over the bad ERA.

 

I see only 2016 as a Jekyl and Hide season.

 

 

[moonslav59]

In the last 25 seasons, there are about 5,000 season sample sizes of SP'ers getting 80+ IP in a season. Here's how Buch's ERA- seasons rank.

 

3) Pedro 35 (2000)

6) Buch 42 (2013)

7) Pedro 42 (1999)

19) Clemens 47 (1990)

22) Pedro 48 (2003)

24) Pedro 50 (2002)

32) Wake 52 (2002)

38) Buch 54 (2010)

[Bellhorn04]

In the last 25 seasons, there are about 5,000 season sample sizes of SP'ers getting 80+ IP in a season. Here's how Buch's ERA- seasons rank.

 

3) Pedro 35 (2000)

6) Buch 42 (2013)

7) Pedro 42 (1999)

19) Clemens 47 (1990)

22) Pedro 48 (2003)

24) Pedro 50 (2002)

32) Wake 52 (2002)

38) Buch 54 (2010)

 

Buch's 2010 peripherals indicate that his ERA benefitted from a fair amount of good luck. He had a good season but not quite that good.

[moonslav59]

Buch's 2010 peripherals indicate that his ERA benefitted from a fair amount of good luck. He had a good season but not quite that good.

 

True. His 1.203 WHIP was nearly .200 over his 2013 season, but he still excelled at not letting up many runs although pitching in a pitcher's park vs tougher offensive teams than most.

[moonslav59]

True. His 1.203 WHIP was nearly .200 over his 2013 season, but he still excelled at not letting up many runs although pitching in a pitcher's park vs tougher offensive teams than most.

 

Having 2 of the top 38 season's out of 4,900+ is still pretty amazing!

[Slasher9]

Buch's 2010 peripherals indicate that his ERA benefitted from a fair amount of good luck. He had a good season but not quite that good.

 

HFX, in all fairness you would have to look at every other of the 5,000 player seasons to see who else was "lucky". it's part of the game. you cant get to 38 on "luck" alone.

im wondering who is 1 & 2 on that list.

[moonslav59]

HFX, in all fairness you would have to look at every other of the 5,000 player seasons to see who else was "lucky". it's part of the game. you cant get to 38 on "luck" alone.

im wondering who is 1 & 2 on that list.

 

1 & 2 would make you think maybe "luck" is involved:

 

Only 2975 "qualified", but when you lower to 80 IP, there are 4,908 samples.

 

1) Kris Medlen 25 (2012)

2) Steve Ontiveros 35 (1994)

Others near the top:

Greg Maddux2 in the top 5

F Liriano 8th

Zach Duke 9th

Gooden 10th

Greinke, Kershaw, Arieta, K Brown, C Eldred, Rich Hill this year 20th, R Harden, Randy johnson's best is # 25, K hendricks, B Beachy are all the names in the top 30, not counting those already on the list provided.

[sk7326]

#1 was Kris Medlen (2012)

#2 was Steve Ontiveros (1994)

 

If you go to FIP- ... rating against peripherals ... to give you some appreciation

 

Pedro Martinez (among starters) had Seasons #1 (1999), #2 (2001), #4 (2000), and #10 (2003) ... two Big Unit seasons rounded out the Top 5

For good measure, Pedro's 1997 season (the pre-Boston one) and 2002 seasons also cracked the Top 25.

[sk7326]

1 & 2 would make you think maybe "luck" is involved:

 

Only 2975 "qualified", but when you lower to 80 IP, there are 4,908 samples.

 

1) Kris Medlen 25 (2012)

2) Steve Ontiveros 35 (1994)

Others near the top:

Greg Maddux2 in the top 5

F Liriano 8th

Zach Duke 9th

Gooden 10th

Greinke, Kershaw, Arieta, K Brown, C Eldred, Rich Hill this year 20th, R Harden, Randy johnson's best is # 25, K hendricks, B Beachy are all the names in the top 30, not counting those already on the list provided.

 

Ontiveros' season was over 115 IP with an unthinkable .234 BABIP. He had a tiny 13.8% strikeout rate ... basically he was a strike thrower (5.8%) who took advantage of playing in a great pitcher's park

Medlen pitched 138 innings and had a .261 BABIP and pretty-in line 23.1% strikeout rate ... his season was short but legitimately outstanding ... injuries suck

[mrguit]

I say he's well worth now that he's healthy.

If we make the playoffs he could prove very

valuable.

[bosoxmal]

I don't think I missed more than half a dozen of the pitches Buchholz threw last night, and i didn't see more than half a dozen of those in the middle of the plate. Yet his strikeout to walk ration was outstanding. And, only once or twice was he falling off toward first base looking at his shoe tops! I would say he stays in the rotation until his next performances say otherwise.

[moonslav59]

Ontiveros' season was over 115 IP with an unthinkable .234 BABIP. He had a tiny 13.8% strikeout rate ... basically he was a strike thrower (5.8%) who took advantage of playing in a great pitcher's park

Medlen pitched 138 innings and had a .261 BABIP and pretty-in line 23.1% strikeout rate ... his season was short but legitimately outstanding ... injuries suck

 

Good info.

 

One could claim Medlen and Ontiveros got lucky or just had a nice hot streak, even though not for a full season, but Buch has 2 in the top 38, which is the top 1% of all samples. It's not luck to do it twice.

 

He's got nasty stuff than can be just about unhittable. He's shown he can do it for over 80 IP stretches. Let's hope he's just begun his 3rd great 80 inning stretch.

 

[Bellhorn04]

As somebody said earlier, Clay is like the cat with 9 lives.

[sk7326]

Good info.

 

One could claim Medlen and Ontiveros got lucky or just had a nice hot streak, even though not for a full season, but Buch has 2 in the top 38, which is the top 1% of all samples. It's not luck to do it twice.

 

He's got nasty stuff than can be just about unhittable. He's shown he can do it for over 80 IP stretches. Let's hope he's just begun his 3rd great 80 inning stretch.

 

 

Buchholz has #1 stuff - and has gotten those results in some good, but not sustained stretches. It's why a team cannot quit him, even though as a fan I'd love to. (his pace of play with runners on base is genuinely horrifying).

 

Medlen was legitimately outstanding ... Ontiveros was lucky. Their respective cases are pretty clear there.

[moonslav59]

Buchholz has #1 stuff - and has gotten those results in some good, but not sustained stretches. It's why a team cannot quit him, even though as a fan I'd love to. (his pace of play with runners on base is genuinely horrifying).

 

Medlen was legitimately outstanding ... Ontiveros was lucky. Their respective cases are pretty clear there.

 

I agree on your Medlen & Ontiveros assessments.

 

On the "sustainability" of Buch's Stretches, I will say that he has had prolonged stretches of over a season long.

 

Here's a look:

 

Not only was the 2010 season's 28 starts of near total brilliance, despite some peripherals that indicate some luck may have been involved, he followed that season up with a very respectable 14 starts in 2011 before the injury.

 

That's 28 +14 straight starts with a combined ERA of under 2.90. (256 IP and 42 GS'd)

 

His best stretch was 2013, and he had actually has a very decent 2nd half of the prior year (2012). He had a 3.76 ERA in his final 15 starts of 2012 (103 IP). That number would have been much better without his last start of 1.2 IP and 8 ER, but it was what it was... a decent ending. He followed the second half of 2012 with 16 of his best starts of his career (1.74 ERA in 108 IP). Combined, that's 31 starts in a row with 211 IP and a combined ERA of under 2.80.

 

So, two stretches: one of 42 starts and the other 31 starts of very effective pitching.

 

Edited September 8, 2016 by moonslav59

[Slasher9]

dont look now but both fangraphs and BR have positive number in the WAR column for clay.....

[Bellhorn04]

dont look now but both fangraphs and BR have positive number in the WAR column for clay.....

 

Yes, bWAR has him at one-tenth of a game above replacement.

[moonslav59]

He's also got his ERA below 5.00.

 

It was at 6.34 in June.

[Slasher9]

Yes, bWAR has him at one-tenth of a game above replacement.

 

i told you not to look!

but really...wouldnt you expect a zero WAR for $13MM? anything over that (even 1/10th) is gravy. and we love gravy.

[Bellhorn04]

i told you not to look!

but really...wouldnt you expect a zero WAR for $13MM? anything over that (even 1/10th) is gravy. and we love gravy.

 

According to Fangraphs 13 mill should get you 1.8 WAR or something like that. But whatever...if he keeps pitching like this the rest of the way he'll have earned his money, and he'll be back next year for another ride.