Clay Buchholz - Is he worth the 2016 option?

[Kimmi]

I agree. I'm a big fan of throw a bunch of s*** at the wall and see what sticks when it comes to the bullpen, especially when you already have an established closer. Middle relievers are pretty volatile from year to year.

 

Maybe "one" veteran guy like a Ziegler at 6 or 7 million could work, but not two. Ziegler is obviously going back home, so who knows who that guy could be at this point. My guess is they'll trade for some help in the pen, as the rotation seems pretty set.

 

^^This. I'd rather keep Buchholz for the $13 mil.

[moonslav59]

Without Buchholz, though, we have absolutely no depth in starting pitching. That is why he is valuable right now.

 

The reason Wright even started this year was because of Buchholz.

 

Buch's the reason we traded Espinoza.

 

Buch was "healthy" when we started Kelly for 6 games (8.46 ERA), O'Sullivan for 4 games (6.64) and Owens for 4 games (7.79). How soon you guys forget!

 

You're all falling for the same old crap that keeps getting us in trouble year after year. Counting on Buch is like counting on a broken abacus.

 

I've been one of Buch's biggest supporters year after year. I've posted how his best two ERA- minus years are among the very best in MLB history. I've posted how if you add minor leagues with big leagues, he's actually started over 24 starts a season way more than most think, but this year was the last straw.

 

Unless the guy leads us to a ring, I'm done with him. We can do better with the $13M. Add the $13M to the $30M already there and maybe we can get someone very special plus a couple stable pen arms and a cheap vet starter as the 6th man. We'll also have Johnson plus Kelly, Elias and Owens to trot out there again anyways.

[Bellhorn04]

$13 million really isn't much of a commitment any more. We're paying that much for 2 years of a platoon outfielder (and Young is making that deal look good.)

 

It's certainly possible you could do better with the $13 mill, there are also a lot of ways you could do worse.

 

Or I could say 'let's just see what happens', which would be the most sensible position, but as always it's more fun jibber-jabbering and arguing about it.

[southpaw777]

It makes sense, if you don't want him at $13M and you'd rather get a decent A ball player or better over getting nothing at all.

 

We got Marco Hernandez for Doubront. I'd think we could get something similar or better for Buch, assuming he ends the season well.

 

I agree, it is highly unlikely we sign and trade.

 

You guys are funny...if Buch pitches like 7ip 6 H and 1-2 down the stretch and the Sox picked up the option only to trade him, there would be a lot better offers than a Marco Hernandez type...id bet $$ on it. 13m, change of scenery, FA year...ill bet a GM who loves his stuff would give up a nice player(s) for Buch...

I think some fans have let their personal feelings for Clay, mostly frustration, affect their perception of what he could bring back in a trade if he has success the restbof the way..,13m is chicken scratch for a starter in todays MLB. We paid 13m per for Dempster...granted a little overpay hecause of lowered years, but still...that was 3 years ago.

Edited September 9, 2016 by southpaw777

[SoxnCycles]

You guys are funny...if Buch pitches like 7ip 6 H and 1-2 down the stretch and the Sox picked up the option only to trade him, there would be a lot better offers than a Marco Hernandez type...id bet $$ on it. 13m, change of scenery, FA year...ill bet a GM who loves his stuff would give up a nice player(s) for Buch...

I think some fans have let their personal feelings for Clay, mostly frustration, affect their perception of what he could bring back in a trade if he has success the restbof the way..,13m is chicken scratch for a starter in todays MLB. We paid 13m per for Dempster...granted a little overpay hecause of lowered years, but still...that was 3 years ago.

 

Here? At TS?? The bastion of objective thinkinng???

 

Come on!!

[Bellhorn04]

If we don't have Buchholz next year, we have to do something about our lack of rotation depth. Guys like Owens and Johnson don't seem to be it, and Kopech won't be ready yet.

[moonslav59]

You guys are funny...if Buch pitches like 7ip 6 H and 1-2 down the stretch and the Sox picked up the option only to trade him, there would be a lot better offers than a Marco Hernandez type...id bet $$ on it. 13m, change of scenery, FA year...ill bet a GM who loves his stuff would give up a nice player(s) for Buch...

I think some fans have let their personal feelings for Clay, mostly frustration, affect their perception of what he could bring back in a trade if he has success the restbof the way..,13m is chicken scratch for a starter in todays MLB. We paid 13m per for Dempster...granted a little overpay hecause of lowered years, but still...that was 3 years ago.

 

I said similar or better than Hernandez, and of course the value goes up, if Buch does very well to end the season.

 

The one year deal also has enormous value due to low risk involved. I realiz4e that same value can be applied to the Sox for just keeping Buch, but I have to think his value to another team as their possible 2-3-4 starter is worth more than to us as our 5/6 starter. That is the foundation of making a trade. (I have said the same about Holt- his value to another team is greater than to ours, once we lose our DH only player.)

 

Here's some of what $13M could have gotten last year (some hits-some misees):

 

Starters:

$12M x 3 JA Happ

$8M x 2 Pelfrey

$7.5M Colon

$6M R Hill

$6M C Lewis

$5.8M x2 C Young

 

RP'ers:

$8.3M x 3 J Soria

$8M x 1 W Davis

$7.7M x 4 D O'Day

$7.5M x 1 Benoit

$7.3M x 3 R Madson

$7M x 1 Fister

$6.3M x 1 JP Howell

$6.1M x 2 Clippard

$6M x 3 T Sipp

$6M x 2 Bastardo

$5.5M x 2 M Lowe

$5.5M x 1 Ziegler

$5M x 3 S Kelly

$5M x 2 Cishek, Axford. J Motte

$3.5M x 2 O Perez

$3M x 2 C Qualls

 

We could have had Andrew Miller for $10M x 4 a couple years ago.

 

I admit, I don't know much about this year's RP free agent class, but $13M can go a long way.

 

With Uehara, Ziegler and Taz all FAs after this year, take a look at our projected bottom of the pen. Maybe we can do both, but we could use some serious upgrades, perhaps at the expense of starter depth.

 

RP1 Kimbrel

RP2 Smith (if healthy)

RP3 Buch or Wright

RP4 Ross

RP5 Kelly

RP6 Barnes

RP7 Abad, Elias, Hembree

 

RP'ers 5 through 10 look pretty scary to me, and we're not sure we can count on Carson Smith. Kimbrel has looked shaky. Ross has been decent, but he's not a sure bet pitcher.

 

[Slasher9]

If we don't have Buchholz next year, we have to do something about our lack of rotation depth. Guys like Owens and Johnson don't seem to be it, and Kopech won't be ready yet.

 

i would like to sign him to a LTC right now.

[moonslav59]

$13m is chicken scratch for a starter in todays MLB.

 

Maybe so, but looking through rose-colored glasses, $13M could have gotten us this last winter (in theory)...

 

$12M JA Happ

$13.5M R Hill & B Colon combined

 

or

 

RHill plus a decent RP'er like Clippard and Ziegler

 

 

[mvp 78]

Last year's FA class is not this year's FA class. Buchholz will provide better value at $13M than some of the garbage this year.

[sk7326]

$13m is chicken scratch for a starter in todays MLB.

 

Maybe so, but looking through rose-colored glasses, $13M could have gotten us this last winter (in theory)...

 

$12M JA Happ

$13.5M R Hill & B Colon combined

 

or

 

RHill plus a decent RP'er like Clippard and Ziegler

 

 

 

There was no real reason to believe in any of those guys - especially Colon taking his glorious 84 mph fastball to the DH league.

[Wade Boggs]

I agree. But that was one of DD problems building a bullpen from the inside or outside. That may have cost him in 2013. He tried that route trading Milley for Smith. A deal I liked, but backfired this year... trading for elite Players sure, looking for low cost players its hard to do. It's sort of like the old Kevin Towers former SD - GM mojo, you got to get lucky. It's all hit or miss. jmo

[sk7326]

I agree. But that was one of DD problems building a bullpen from the inside or outside. That may have cost him in 2013. He tried that route trading Milley for Smith. A deal I liked, but backfired this year... trading for elite Players sure, looking for low cost players its hard to do. It's sort of like the old Kevin Towers former SD - GM mojo, you got to get lucky. It's all hit or miss. jmo

 

Relievers are hit or miss across years too. (after all almost all relievers are failed starters - so they are an inherently less reliable cohort - and the small sample sizes means that stats can vary wildly). Really if you just lined up guys with high strikeout rates and took your chances and be vigilant about churn you could do something.

[Station 13]

Not many starters out there can be had for 1 year at $13M. Though Clay is and always will be a coin flip, it's better gamble than Masterson/Dempster types. So pick up his contract, shop him around, or keep him.

[S5Dewey]

$13m is chicken scratch for a starter in todays MLB.

 

Maybe so, but looking through rose-colored glasses, $13M could have gotten us this last winter (in theory)...

 

$12M JA Happ

$13.5M R Hill & B Colon combined

 

or

 

RHill plus a decent RP'er like Clippard and Ziegler

 

 

 

Yeah, but it's easy to look back over an entire season and say we could have done "this" or we could have done "that" and been better off. These statements are all couched in the assumption that we would/could have signed the perfect players. Donaldson, last year, anyone?

 

Without doing a lot of research I'd also say that there are a lot of players whom we could have signed for $13 who could have stunk the place up. I still think that for $13M we get a known commodity in Buch and very possibly the best "stuff" available for that money. Sure it's a crap shoot, but very possibly less of a crap shoot than some other players in the twilight of their careers whom we're hoping for a magic season from.

[S5Dewey]

And will people quit crapping on Ryan Dempster?? He made a boatload of starts in 1013, pitched ~6 innings per start and had an ERA of about 4.50. That means he gave up ~ three runs/game through 6 innings. How many #5's are going to do that for you?

 

I mean, sure, we could have gone a little cheaper and finished second.

 

And then in a final favor to the team he freed up another $13 rather than come back and possibly occupy a roster spot and get paid for it.

 

What more do you want from the guy???

[mvp 78]

Dempster was fine. If his name didn't rhyme with dumpster, people wouldn't have been so hard on him.

 

Guess what? FA's cost a lot of money to bring in. Get over it.

[Slasher9]

Dempster should never have to buy a beer in boston.....

[sk7326]

$13M buys you Ryan Dempster ... which is fine ... put simply, at that price - in the FA market - you're going to get a lot of mediocre innings or a relatively low number of pretty good ones.

[Bellhorn04]

Yeah, but it's easy to look back over an entire season and say we could have done "this" or we could have done "that" and been better off. These statements are all couched in the assumption that we would/could have signed the perfect players. Donaldson, last year, anyone?

 

Without doing a lot of research I'd also say that there are a lot of players whom we could have signed for $13 who could have stunk the place up. I still think that for $13M we get a known commodity in Buch and very possibly the best "stuff" available for that money. Sure it's a crap shoot, but very possibly less of a crap shoot than some other players in the twilight of their careers whom we're hoping for a magic season from.

 

Well said.

[moonslav59]

I've been defending Buch for years, and when I finally give up on him, he puts together a few weeks of doing well, and suddenly he's "know commodity"!

 

Buch is still one of the least dependable pitchers in MLB.

 

I realize we could sign a stable and durable guy, and he could get hurt in ST'ing, but I'm done with Buch forever.

 

He'd have to blow me away through the end of the year to want to have him on my roster next year.

 

As of now, I'm thinking take the option & trade.

[moonslav59]

....Buch and very possibly the best "stuff" available for that money...

 

No doubt. That's why I defended him for years, but he's too damn unreliable for my taste.

[Slasher9]

i would offer him $50MM / 5 years right now.

[moonslav59]

Man O man, I never seen a bunch of bandwagon jumpers as here.

[Slasher9]

Man O man, I never seen a bunch of bandwagon jumpers as here.

 

come on moon. i have been a clay supporter since i was at his no-no many years ago. im pretty sure i am one of the few that have defended him this entire year.

[Bellhorn04]

come on moon. i have been a clay supporter since i was at his no-no many years ago. im pretty sure i am one of the few that have defended him this entire year.

 

I'll vouch for that Slasher, you haven't wavered a bit.

[SoxnCycles]

Man O man, I never seen a bunch of bandwagon jumpers as here.

 

That's what Buchholz does to fans.

Name another pitcher that can be so bad, and then so good, in a single season.

[moonslav59]

That's what Buchholz does to fans.

Name another pitcher that can be so bad, and then so good, in a single season.

 

Sorry, for quoting you, but there were just about 1-2 Buch supporters a few months back. Many wanted to DFA him (I was against that).

 

Now, it's like his past never happened.

[SoxnCycles]

Sorry, for quoting you, but there were just about 1-2 Buch supporters a few months back. Many wanted to DFA him (I was against that).

 

Now, it's like his past never happened.

 

Yup, I hear you.

I agree, it would've been a mistake to DFa him.

They made the right move in putting him in the pen.

 

It either woke him up a little, or it gave him a chance to fix whatever problem he was having.

 

I've always thought Buchh was a head case, so I'm guessing that it's the former.

[moonslav59]

Yup, I hear you.

I agree, it would've been a mistake to DFa him.

They made the right move in putting him in the pen.

 

It either woke him up a little, or it gave him a chance to fix whatever problem he was having.

 

I've always thought Buchh was a head case, so I'm guessing that it's the former.

 

I was never sure about his issues being in his head.

 

I hurt my back once and was looked upon by management as it being in my head or that I was a faker, because nothing showed up on the X-Ray or MRI. I have always been an exceptionally hard worker with an obsession to be the best at everything I did. I hated that people doubted my word.

 

I tend to not call others out without knowing all the facts, and even then, like in my case, the wrong conclusions can be perceived or reached.

 

Buch has had real injuries. His recovery time is often long. He may be just fragile. He may have a low pain threshold. His injuries may affect his mental approach, as it may distract him by either worry about re-injury or thinking about discomfort as a sign of an impending injury. Most pitchers feel pain all year long. It's not easy to always know the difference between a problem or just normal post-game soreness.

 

I've always given Buch the benefit of the doubt. I still do.

 

I just think he's too injury prone. His recovery time is too long and often involves what seems like rehab while in MLB (maybe not his fault). Sometimes, he says he feels fine, but can't pitch for s***. Usually that is after having an extended time away from baseball or just before an injury.

 

I think I'd just rather have someone with less upside, but much more dependability and durability.

 

Nothing against Buch or his character. Nothing against his enormous talent.

 

I'm jst tired of the uncertainty.