CONFIRMED: Red Sox Acquiring Adley Rutschman In Stunning AL East Blockbuster

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

(I am not making this up)

Adley's BB-ref Most Similar Batters:

1. CJ Abrams, 2. Tyler Stephenson, 5. Jeremy Pena, 8. Ryan Jeffers, 10. Elly De La Cruz.

All players presumably on the Red Sox radar this month...

If they couldn't get the shortstops, at least they landed the best catcher.

[JoeBrady]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

What does his prospect status have to do with anything at this point? He's been in the league for years. 

He was the best all around catcher prior to his injuries. Now? Hard to bet on it if he can't stay on the field.

'25

left oblique - misses a month

right oblique - misses a month

'26

ankle - 10 day

concussion - 7 day

left wrist - 3-4 weeks? 

 

The prospect status and ranking go towards pedigree.  And as I mentioned 'The injuries are a risk', and presumably factored into the price.

[JoeBrady]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

671 OPS since May 1.

.750 since 4/21, ten days earlier.  He has a career .756 and a current year .764.  I have no reason to think that's not an appropriate range.

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

(I am not making this up)

Adley's BB-ref Most Similar Batters:

1. CJ Abrams, 2. Tyler Stephenson, 5. Jeremy Pena, 8. Ryan Jeffers, 10. Elly De La Cruz.

All players presumably on the Red Sox radar this month...

If they couldn't get the shortstops, at least they landed the best catcher.

Failed to mention Ezequiel Tovar (4) and Victor Caratini (7)! 😍

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

The prospect status and ranking go towards pedigree.  And as I mentioned 'The injuries are a risk', and presumably factored into the price.

Ah yes, the pedigree/name that caused them to inflate the price, not the on field results. Got it. 

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

.750 since 4/21, ten days earlier.  He has a career .756 and a current year .764.  I have no reason to think that's not an appropriate range.

He hasn't had a full season 750 OPS since 2023. C'mon man...

711 OPS since the start of '24. 

[mvp 78]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

He hasn't had a full season 750 OPS since 2023. C'mon man...

711 OPS since the start of '24. 

Narvaez had a 726 OPS last season FWIW.

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, notin said:

And yet still derogatory.

The entire point was I didn’t know what was being said locally.  In the future, I’ll make sure to get my Boston perspectives lest I distract you from deriding moon for once being a fan of Devers…

Do you get NESN? That’s where the info was coming from, and the Brez initerview.

[Old Red]

24 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Ah yes, the pedigree/name that caused them to inflate the price, not the on field results. Got it. 

Huh? Can you explain that in layman terms.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Huh? Can you explain that in layman terms.

Are you going to play nicely with others and just answer their questions or just continue to say "why don't you just turn on NESN?" 

[FredLynn]

5 hours ago, southpaw777 said:

Figure it out the rest of the year and move  Duran in the off-season

Duran still has options left I believe. And with White we will have a glut of OFers, especially if Anthony returns. Even Masa can sort of play LF, though no one really wants to see him out there.

[JoeBrady]

38 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Ah yes, the pedigree/name that caused them to inflate the price, not the on field results. Got it. 

You can ignore pedigree if you want, but imho, it's a factor.  FWIW, Vaughn and Bleday were draft #3 and #4.  Teams likely acquired them because they thought that they had the raw talent.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, FredLynn said:

Duran still has options left I believe. And with White we will have a glut of OFers, especially if Anthony returns. Even Masa can sort of play LF, though no one really wants to see him out there.

Zero chance they are sending him to WOO. 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

Not really.  Like with all players, you extrapolate his results and assess his injuries.  They aren't saying "oh, It's Rutschman!".

So are they or are they not paying a premium for his pedigree/name? Make up your mind. 

[JoeBrady]

43 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He hasn't had a full season 750 OPS since 2023. C'mon man...

711 OPS since the start of '24. 

Just for fun, do you think AR will be closer to the .711 or his current .764?

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

You can ignore pedigree if you want, but imho, it's a factor.  FWIW, Vaughn and Bleday were draft #3 and #4.  Teams likely acquired them because they thought that they had the raw talent.

I wasn't ignoring it. I flat out said they paid a premium for his name brand and you disagreed. What are you even arguing?

[mvp 78]

Just now, JoeBrady said:

Just for fun, do you think AR will be closer to the .711 or his current .764?

What I want and what I expect are two different things. His career OPS at Fenway is below 700. I think he's going to be closer to 711. He's had a string of injuries and will be in a new ballpark. Maybe he can do better next season and stay healthy. 

[JoeBrady]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

So are they or are they not paying a premium for his pedigree/name? Make up your mind. 

Paying for his name?  Absolutely not.

Considering his pedigree when trying to project future results.  Absolutely yes.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, JoeBrady said:

Paying for his name?  Absolutely not.

Considering his pedigree when trying to project future results.  Absolutely yes.

His name and pedigree are the same thing! 

[JoeBrady]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I wasn't ignoring it. I flat out said they paid a premium for his name brand and you disagreed. What are you even arguing?

I'm arguing that name and pedigree are different.  No one cares that Betts has a great name.  But they will take a look at his current results, and use his past history to determine if his future results will be better or worse.

[JoeBrady]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

His name and pedigree are the same thing! 

In your mind, yes.  In my mind, no.  No one knows but Breslow, but I'd bet that the fact that AR has a great history trumps the fact that he has a more mediocre current history.

[Old Red]

37 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Are you going to play nicely with others and just answer their questions or just continue to say "why don't you just turn on NESN?" 

If you watched NESN more than just the games you would know more, and wouldn’t have to ask those questions. It other words you’d be more informed . That’s my only point I was making. I would think everyone would want to be more informed.

[drewski6]

Paying for pedigree vs overpaying for pedigree, I feel is the crux of the confusion.  IF there are three guys in a basketball draft who everyone knows are going to go 1,2,3 and one of them is Michael Jordan's son, it may make sense to take him first , even if he might have gone 2 or 3 had he not been MJs son.

Similarly, a guy goes 1 overall and struggles his first year in the minors, he'll prob retain more trade value than someone who went in the 19th round and struggled....

Understood these examples dont have very much to do with Adley, but they show that pedigree can often be included in the price.  In Adleys case, of course it was.  But the debate between JB and MVP from my third party eyes, appears to be whether you are paying that premium because of the brand name/name recognition/PR or because the fact that he was a 1 overall pick + a top prospect + one of the best catchers in the game, and is still under 30, he has the upside of getting back there and becoming/maintaining a top 3 overall catcher like he once was.

I think the debate is: did we pay for the pedigree for marketing reasons (PR) or for the baseball reasons (upside)....and the answer is probably a little bit of both....But I dont think you include Eyoreson (son of a cute pessimistic famous donkey  - so some pedigree of his own) in a deal for a player you are getting in large part for name-recognition reasons.  So I think the bulk of the pedigree premium was for valid reasons (upside) vs whats moons word for this....oh right......sham reasons.

[drewski6]

Trading a top prospect for a guy who has star name recognition and you dont think he will be elite again but you did it anyways so you can market /PR ....look y'all we got a big name = Sham

Trading a top prospect for a guy who has star name recognition and you think he will be elite again and you did it for the future = upside play

[drewski6]

On Adley, I lean upside play.

[Bellhorn04]

I like the WAR per 162 games B-R now provides.  Adley's is 4.7.

[notin]

54 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Do you get NESN? That’s where the info was coming from, and the Brez initerview.

Only their game feeds on occasion The actual channel is not available from my provider…

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I like the WAR per 162 games B-R now provides.  Adley's is 4.7.

Roman is a 6.4. A lot of people are out on him.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

671 OPS since May 1. 

673 OPS 2025.

709 OPS 2024. 

For 1.5 years and the current injury streak, it's an overpay. He needs to stay healthy and perform at a high level to be worth it. I like the guy, but he needs to turn it around a little bit if the trade is going to be worth it. 

Those numbers are scary and not worth the package sent to BAL. Clearly we need better numbers.

Rutschman has been considered the best defensive catcher in baseball by some, so that is helpful.

An adjustment with our staff is needed, but I think it can be seemless.

 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Only their game feeds on occasion The actual channel is not available from my provider…

Admitting you aren't a true fan. Proud of you.