At Long Last, Caleb Durbin Has Arrived In Boston

[Yirsandy Rodríguez]

Caleb Durbin’s rise didn’t begin when the hits started falling. It began when the ball stopped ending up on the ground.

That single change helps explain almost everything that has happened over the past month. After spending much of the season making contact without doing much damage, Durbin has transformed the shape of his offensive game. Groundballs have become line drives and fly balls. Extra-base hits have started to follow. For the first time in Boston, he looks remarkably close to the hitter the Red Sox believed they were acquiring.

The results reflected his early struggles. Durbin posted a 45 wRC+ in March and April, followed by a 41 mark in May. He was still putting the ball in play, still showing the bat-to-ball ability that had defined his climb through the minors, but too many plate appearances ended the same way: a ground ball, a routine out, and another missed opportunity.

Then June arrived. Suddenly, the same player looked different. Durbin hit .309 with a .600 slugging percentage and a 146 wRC+ during the month, emerging as one of Boston's most productive hitters. The obvious question is whether this is simply a hot streak, or something he can actually build upon.

Caleb Durbin Has Made Groundballs Disappear

The most important change in Durbin’s profile is found in the type of contact he is producing. Players with his skill set often walk a narrow path offensively. Without elite raw power, they must create value through contact quality, athleticism, and smart swing decisions. Making contact alone is not enough; the contact has to matter.

For much of the season, it did not. During March and April, 61 percent of Durbin’s balls in play were hit on the ground. While ground balls can benefit players with speed, they also limit offensive upside. It is difficult to drive the baseball when most of your contact never leaves the infield dirt.

Luckily, we've started to see a paradigm shift here in June.

Month	GB%	FB%	LD%	HR/FB
Mar/Apr	61.0%	25.6%	13.4%	4.8%
May	50.0%	33.3%	16.7%	0.0%
June	32.7%	46.9%	20.4%	17.4%

There's nothing hiding in that data. The ground balls steadily disappeared, the line drives increased, and the fly balls nearly doubled. That alone is a change worth celebrating, before we even get into the actual results.

His average launch angle climbed from 5.1 degrees in March and April to 17.9 degrees in June. His barrel rate increased from 1.2 percent to 6.0 percent. His hard-hit rate moved in the same direction. At long last, he's hitting like a major leaguer again.

Better Discipline Begets Better Contact

What makes this breakout particularly intriguing is how it happened. Many hitters attempt to unlock power by swinging harder and accepting more strikeouts as the cost of doing business. Durbin has taken a different path: His strikeout rate actually dropped to 10.3 percent in June.

Month	Z-Swing%	Swing%	Contact%	Bat Speed
Mar/Apr	56.7%	41.9%	86.5%	67.9 mph
May	64.1%	46.7%	81.7%	68.2 mph
June	74.1%	52.1%	88.1%	69.8 mph

Durbin is swinging more often than he was earlier in the season, but not because he has become reckless (his chase rates have remained under control). Instead, he has become significantly more aggressive against strikes.

You don't need me to tell you this, but more aggressive swings at the right pitches lead to better contact. Better contact leads to more damage. And when a hitter can create that damage without sacrificing contact ability, their offensive outlook changes.

What This Means For Durbin, Red Sox Going Forward

The most important question is not whether Caleb Durbin can maintain a .600 slugging percentage.

Truth be told, he he probably can't. Very few hitters can sustain that level of production over a full season, and his expected metrics suggest some regression is likely. However, Durbin’s improvement is supported by better swing decisions, increased bat speed, a dramatically different batted-ball profile, and expected metrics that are moving in the same direction as the results. Those are precisely the indicators teams trust when evaluating whether a breakout is real.

Durbin has always possessed the contact skills -- he proved it last year in Milwaukee with the Brewers. It took him a while to find his way after that shocking trade in February, but it appears he's finally found a way to marry impact with those innate talents. If he sustains it, that trade may not age quite as poorly as we've all feared.

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[L J]

I realize that Durbin is just one example, but his recent surge in putting balls in play begs the question, were the Red Sox right by letting the hitting coach go in April?

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, L J said:

I realize that Durbin is just one example, but his recent surge in putting balls in play begs the question, were the Red Sox right by letting the hitting coach go in April?

Overall scoring has not increased.  Tough to say if this is the coaching, or on the players, or the overall level of talent.

[mvp 78]

He just dove into 1b and may end up on the IL. What a great little player.

[vegasbob]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

He just dove into 1b and may end up on the IL. What a great little player.

A brainless play despite the effort.

If he goes IL while on a hot streak, it would be the culmination of a nothing season

[Hitch]

I like Durbin, always have. His defence is superb. Hopefully this recent hitting form is more like what he is going to become. If so, he will be a very good player for us. 

Time will tell, but I'm sure as s*** glad we have him over Bregman right now.

[Bellhorn04]

Nice that he has turned it around.  Sad that the guy whose bat we're most excited about still only has a .636 OPS - 83 points below major league average.

[moonslav59]

Just in time for last place.

[mvp 78]

22 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Just in time for last place.

That's the real issue, right? He was so lousy for almost two months that the Sox are 13 games under .500 IN JUNE!!! He was hitting 530 at the end of May. 

[southpaw777]

Kid had to go outside the org. To get fixed because the 20somethings they have as coaches have a one size fits all approach…can we get some guys that have actual MLB experience to coach and have completed their 20,s?

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

That's the real issue, right? 

Is it?

Certainly, he played a big role in the poor start, but why does that make it "the real issue?"

Every player has ups and downs.

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Is it?

Certainly, he played a big role in the poor start, but why does that make it "the real issue?"

Every player has ups and downs.

Is every player a 530 OPS guy for 2 straight months???

[mvp 78]

He was one of the 5 worst hitters in MLB!!!

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, southpaw777 said:

Kid had to go outside the org. To get fixed because the 20somethings they have as coaches have a one size fits all approach…can we get some guys that have actual MLB experience to coach and have completed their 20,s?

We're lucky if the guys teaching them actually played Little League growing up TBH. 

[Duran Is The Man]

2 hours ago, southpaw777 said:

Kid had to go outside the org. To get fixed because the 20somethings they have as coaches have a one size fits all approach…can we get some guys that have actual MLB experience to coach and have completed their 20,s?

but that's the new trend and Henry is all about the latest trend because trends. never mind getting a coach who actually played major league baseball because thats not the latest trend.

[Hugh2]

2 hours ago, southpaw777 said:

Kid had to go outside the org. To get fixed because the 20somethings they have as coaches have a one size fits all approach…can we get some guys that have actual MLB experience to coach and have completed their 20,s?

The coach who fixed Durbin, who is also Aaron Judges private hitting coach never played above D1 college baseball.  
 

they certainly need to know baseball, but I don’t think having mob experience means they’ll be a good coach

[Duran Is The Man]

when Durbin has become our de facto power hitter, something is very, very wrong with the roster construction --i'm looking at you Breslow. with that said, Durbin is growing on me, primarily due to his attitude and hustle. if any of these other bums had a pinky injury like Caleb, they'd be out for the season. not Durbin, he's says "f*** it, i'm playing and hitting home runs and busting my ass trying to win". we need a LOT more of that on the roster.

[mvp 78]

Just now, Hugh2 said:

The coach who fixed Durbin, who is also Aaron Judges private hitting coach never played above D1 college baseball.  
 

they certainly need to know baseball, but I don’t think having mob experience means they’ll be a good coach

He's using both Teacherman (Judge) and Gradum (Narvaez's coaches). Hard to say who he is leaning on more, but Gradum is showing up prior to games to watch him hit batting practice while Teacherman is not. 

[mvp 78]

Just now, Duran Is The Man said:

when Durbin has become our de facto power hitter, something is very, very wrong with the roster construction --i'm looking at you Breslow. with that said, Durbin is growing on me, primarily due to his attitude and hustle. if any of these other bums had a pinky injury like Caleb, they'd be out for the season. not Durbin, he's says "f*** it, i'm playing and hitting home runs and busting my ass trying to win". we need a LOT more of that on the roster.

He needs to keep it up. I'm not going to be all in on a guy just because of one hot stretch. He's going to cool off at some point. What does that look like? Does he go back to 500 OPS month to month or 700 OPS? 

[moonslav59]

50 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Is every player a 530 OPS guy for 2 straight months???

What does that have to do with saying its the "real question?"

No, hardly any players go two months that low. No Sox players is doing what he's been doing in June, either.

To me, Duran's .624 OPS on June 26th is more of "the killer," since he was batting 1-5 most of the season.

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

What does that have to do with saying its the "real question?"

Nitpicking my choice of words. That's fun. 

[moonslav59]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

Nitpicking my choice of words. That's fun. 

Well, you are the only poster who claims every post is perfect, so you probably think this is not-picking, too.

🤪

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Well, you are the only poster who claims every post is perfect, so you probably think this is not-picking, too.

🤪

My post was perfect. You're the nitpicker.

 🪰

[Duran Is The Man]

58 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He needs to keep it up. I'm not going to be all in on a guy just because of one hot stretch. He's going to cool off at some point. What does that look like? Does he go back to 500 OPS month to month or 700 OPS? 

oh, i have no doubt he'll regress to the mean, but i really like the way he plays.

[mvp 78]

Just now, Duran Is The Man said:

oh, i have no doubt he'll regress to the mean, but i really like the way he plays.

I don't want him diving into 1b anymore. That's all I'll say. 

[mvp 78]

And he did let that one ball drop between him and Wong the other day which was inexcusable. 

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Is every player a 530 OPS guy for 2 straight months???

Lots of damage was done to the W-L record in those two months, and DUBin was one of the many reasons why.

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

My post was perfect. You're the nitpicker.

 🪰

It was wrong byond the knitting.

[Old Red]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

My post was perfect. You're the nitpicker.

 🪰

👍👍👍👏.

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

My post was perfect. You're the nitpicker.

 🪰

And you speak of divas.

LMAO