Yirsandy Rodríguez

It was just 154 balls put in play in 225 plate appearances, which does not seem sufficient to be certain about his contact ability, but for Boston Red Sox slugger Mickey Gasper, it meant the first big opportunity earned since he debuted in the major leagues back in 2024. The journey for Gasper has been a challenge in this short time. After debuting with the Red Sox in August 2024, Gasper went 0-for-18, with eight strikeouts in 13. Boston had selected him from the Yankees in the minor-league phase of the 2023 Rule 5 Draft, but then on December 24, 2024, the team sent him to Minnesota in exchange for left-handed reliever Jovani Moran, who was recovering from Tommy John surgery. With the Twins, Gasper played 45 games in 2025 and recorded a .158/.257/.232 batting line, with a .488 OPS in 110 plate appearances. He also dealt with plantar fasciitis in both feet, an injury that limited his availability to get more opportunities. On January 14, 2026, Minnesota designated him for assignment after claiming utility player Vidal Brujan and, six days later, the Washington Nationals claimed him off waivers. When it seemed that Gasper would find a new opportunity to try to stabilize his career at 30 years old, the Nationals also designated him for assignment on January 29. In that situation, Boston took advantage of a second opportunity and claimed him off waivers on February 4. He started the 2026 season at Triple-A Worcester, where he destroyed pitching by producing a 1.016 OPS, nine home runs and 42 RBIs in 54 games. He was named the team’s Most Valuable Player and finished among the organization’s top minor leaguers in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging and OPS. His first call-up to Boston came on May 7. Gasper found opportunities on the Red Sox roster and established personal MLB records with 67 games, 10 home runs and a .251/.357/.466 batting line, good for an .823 OPS. But his production skyrocketed when he was called up again on August 16. From then until an injury prematurely ended his season, he recorded a 1.082 OPS, a .667 slugging percentage and 10 home runs, figures that placed him among the most productive hitters in MLB during that stretch (with a minimum of 50 plate appearances). The streak in August was my favorite turning point of the year, when Gasper hit .400, with a 1.671 OPS in 30 at-bats. That mark was the fifth-highest for a calendar month in MLB since 1898, with a minimum of 30 plate appearances. Seven of his 10 home runs with Boston came to put the Red Sox ahead or tie the game: three gave them the lead and four tied the game. On September 22, he hit a pinch-hit solo home run to tie the game in the eighth inning against Cleveland, his first home run in that role. In addition, his final four home runs of the season came on the first pitch. Despite his short playing time, all those achievements marked his season in a special way, but I think what defined the season was not his power jump with 11 home runs—ten of them came in the second half of the season, and ten with the bases empty—but Gasper’s ability to crush fastballs. That was the main adjustment he made, overcoming the pitch that had limited his progress as a hitter. Before 2026, Gasper hit just .177 (11-for-62) against MLB fastballs, with only one home run. His contact ability was not the problem, since Gasper recorded a low 11.8 K%, but his xBA was only .203 and .195 in 2024 and 2025, respectively. In 2026, that story took a complete turn. Gasper saw 229 four-seam fastballs and responded by producing a .380 average, .800 slugging and a hard-hit rate of 55.3. He limited his strikeouts even more, reducing his rate to 4.6 K% and whiffs to just 6.8%. If we reduce the filter to qualified hitters with at least 50 plate appearances that ended with four-seam fastballs in 2026, the results will probably surprise you. Yes, as you can see, Gasper tops the list! Look, we know that 4.9 RV/100 was built practically with his offensive performance in the month of August, but seeing him lead with that small sample was one of the most interesting signs that continues to make us think about how valuable Gasper could be. By going a little deeper into his contact ability against four-seam fastballs and his ability to reduce his swing-and-miss rate, another interesting note appears: Gasper was the hitter with the highest xSLG (.538) among a small group of just seven hitters who finished with less than a 12% whiff rate. Who were the others? Ketel Marte (.533 xSLG, 10 whiffs%), Otto Lopez (.519, 10.1%) and Kevin McGonigle (.511, 9.9%), all terrific infielders with All-Star credentials. Gasper finished the year on the injured list with a right biceps strain, retroactive to September 26, which prevented him from participating in the final game of the season. Looking ahead, his breakout was one of the best surprises of the 2026 season, even though his defense will be the most complicated point in being able to find playing time. Still, he stays healthy and demonstrates that his progress at the plate wasn't a mere fluke, he'll find his way into Chad Tracy's lineup on a regular basis. View full article

In baseball, there is an old saying that the second year is even more difficult than the rookie one; there's a reason the "sophomore slump" still exists in our lexicon today. For Boston Red Sox third baseman Caleb Durbin, his start to Year 2 was puzzling, but he managed to find his rhythm before it was too late. Durbin entered May 28 batting just .163, with a .241 on-base percentage and a .479 OPS in 48 games. Even so, he improved his plate discipline, a step that helped him achieve better pitch selection and turned him into one of the most productive hitters in clutch situations for the rest of the season. After opening with just 48 and 43 wRC+ in March/April and May, respectively, he raised his wRC+ to 163 in June—his highest point of the entire season—and the only considerable drop he experienced came in September, when he fell to 99. Between May 28 and the end of the season, Durbin hit .283/.369/.435, with 12 home runs among his 30 extra-base hits and a .803 OPS in 105 games, ranking among the American League’s best hitters in several categories. He finished the season with a .248/.332/.378 slash line, 13 home runs, 64 RBIs, 20 stolen bases in 26 attempts, and 3.1 fWAR, surpassing his 2.7 mark in his first year. However, he could not avoid his major contact problems against fastballs, part of what prevented his season from being even more productive. This is not a new challenge for Durbin, as his inconsistency against high velocity has been his Achilles’ heel for several reasons. The main one remains his poor bat speed, finishing in the 6th percentile last year and the 13th this season. Despite improving from 67.9 mph with the Milwaukee Brewers in 2025 to 71.8 mph with his adjustments in Boston, his swing continued to look limited. Therefore, the league’s strategy was reasonable. In 2026, pitchers attacked him with more fastballs than in 2025, increasing the percentages from 57.3 to 60.3, and his whiff rate skyrocketed from 6.0% to 15.3%, with many more strikeouts (18.4 K% compared to 5.7%). Still, he graded out positively by run value, and we can attribute that to the fact that he was one of the league’s best hitters in clutch situations. With runners in scoring position, he hit .288 and recorded a .816 OPS in 125 at-bats, with three home runs and 50 RBIs—he also hit two grand slams. When Durbin recorded at least one RBI, he helped his team win 34 out of 46 games. Even with his problems against fastballs, we can see Durbin in the 88th percentile in whiff% and the 91st in K%, figures similar to those from his first year (plus an added advantage in his plate discipline, finishing in the 45th percentile in BB%). His power could improve in the future, but that would involve some changes to his swing and moving away from what he has been able to do best: putting the ball in play. That's only half of where his value comes from, too. Durbin was recently selected as one of the three Gold Glove finalists at third base this season, and he led the American League at the position in Fielding Run Value (+6) and Outs Above Average (+6), two stats that make him a strong favorite to win the award. I know the last impression Durbin left us with was disappointing, when we saw him struggle against the New York Yankees’ pitching until finishing 0-for-7 in the Wild Card Series. But he's becoming a more complete player in front of our eyes, with a chance to be one of the league's best third basemen before long. View full article

It is difficult to forget the recent image Jarren Duran left behind, being completely shut down by the New York Yankees pitchers for the second consecutive year in the Wild Card Series. His presence in the last two postseasons with the Boston Red Sox has been disappointing, finishing 1-for-14 with five strikeouts. Look, I like Duran, and we all know that, given his tools, he can be a very useful player, but the problem here is that since his breakout season in 2024, he has declined every year. Just look at some of his percentile rankings over the past three years. He is still an elite runner and a fielder who could once again outperform the average player, but in batting value, he has fallen from the 96th percentile to the 1st. Yes, Duran just finished his second 20-20 season in the last three years. But in 2026, he finished with the worst offensive line of his entire career, batting .207/.266/.361, with just a 69 wRC+ and .627 OPS. His fWAR of 0.5 is so much worse than 2024 that you might as well be talking about two different players. The decline in his impact on the game in terms of consistency was too great. His strikeout rate fell to the worst mark of his career in qualified seasons, at 27.1%, which was combined with his worst regression in BABIP (.252), falling below his .300 standard for the first time. The problem with his slugging comes from the fact that Duran has not been able to produce the same amount of extra-base hits, especially doubles and triples, as in his previous two campaigns, like when he led the league with 48 doubles and 14 triples in 2024. Last year, he again surpassed 40 doubles and led the league once more with 13 triples. This year, he hit just 15 doubles and five triples, and it is clear that the problem was not just his ability to put the ball in play. Duran maintained elite bat speed, continued to be the same hitter with high chase and whiff rates, and struggled against left-handed pitchers. None of that is new. His ability to generate hard-hit balls did not completely collapse either, finishing in the 60th percentile in Barrel%. So, what made a notable difference was the results of his balls in play. Duran recorded the worst xBA (.273) and xSLG (.388) marks of his career, and he was unable to compensate for part of the decline in his on-base percentage because he finished with the second-worst walk rate of his career (6.7). At this point, breaking pitches and off-speed pitches were responsible for most of Duran’s regression. His whiff rate exceeded 38.0% against both pitch groups, but when he hit them, the result was just as worse, finishing with just a .199 xBA against breaking pitches and .211 against changeups. In contrast, Duran was lethal against fastballs, producing 14 of his 20 home runs and a .479 xSLG. As you can see in this graph, Duran was pretty good at crushing pitches down the middle and in the upper third of the strike zone and, in general, when he managed to pull any pitch, his production rose to a 159 wRC+. However, his reduced hot zone against the mix of breaking balls and changeups can be seen in the lower and outside part of the zone, far from his best contact point. The power profile Duran offers has always been interesting, but his great ability to impact the game comes with his speed. So, a runner with his skills definitely needs to be more consistent at getting on base, especially in a Red Sox lineup that does not rely on power. What I enjoy most about the conversation surrounding Duran’s 20-20 season, or any other player’s, is not exactly the numbers. Hitting home runs and stealing bases at that level is not easy at all, but doing it in situations that truly add greater value to the probability of winning also makes a difference in the game. In Duran’s case, his 20-20 was really more like a solid 15-15, as he managed to produce 16 home runs that positively impacted the scoreboard for the Red Sox. He hit seven home runs with the game tied, four when the team had a lead of two runs or fewer, and the same number when they were trailing by three runs or fewer. Something similar happened with his stolen bases, recording 15 in situations when the team was tied, or trailing or leading by a margin of three runs. If he can right the ship in any of these regards—more extra-base hits, better production against breaking balls and off-speed pitches, or performance in clutch moments—Duran can still be a valuable piece of the Red Sox. But when everything comes together like it did in 2026, it's a lot easier to find the flaws in his game. View full article

Willson Contreras' 2026 season ended with a walk in the ninth inning of Game 2 of the Wild Card Series against New York Yankees closer David Bednar. He finished that fateful elimination night for the Boston Red Sox going 2-for-2, reaching base in all four of his plate appearances. One at-bat earlier, in the sixth inning, he had hit a home run to right field at Yankee Stadium against Max Fried, breaking a streak of 26⅔ consecutive innings in which the Red Sox had gone without scoring a run in the postseason against New York. As usual, in those games when no Red Sox hitter could get a hit, Contreras put together quality at-bats. Since arriving in the organization, he became the leader the team needed on and off the field, and he did it throughout the year while overcoming injuries and difficult moments, such as the team's bewildering start during the first half of the season, which cost Alex Cora and his coaching staff their jobs. For Contreras, without a doubt, it was the best season of his career. That sounds great, especially because it was his first year as a Red Sox player, and we should not forget that it was also only his second year since he began the transition to first base during his final contract year with the St. Louis Cardinals. His defense was above average and, although he finished in the 64th percentile in OAA, down from the 92nd percentile he recorded in 2025, he improved in important areas such as First Base Receiving, which had been at -2 during his first experience at the cold corner. Now, where Contreras made the real difference was in his offensive impact, which went beyond his leadership with the Red Sox. He did not have inconsistent months. His lowest wRC+ was 103 in August, when the discomfort in his left hamstring kept getting worse. We also cannot forget that he was hit by a 95.4 mph pitch from Dodgers pitcher Will Klein. All of this ended with him being placed on the injured list on August 31, after which he missed 12 games. From that point on, the second half of the season became a challenge for the Venezuelan first baseman. After returning, he was hit by another pitch on September 17 and was sidelined again until the 27th, when he played Boston's final game of the regular season as the designated hitter against the Cubs. A month earlier, in July, Contreras was on fire and produced a .323/.488/.629 slash line, with five home runs, 14 RBIs, a 206 wRC+, and a 1.117 OPS. His drop to a .715 OPS in August was the only time his OPS fell below .856. But then he bounced back and maintained his pace, leading the offensive production during the comeback that changed the Red Sox's season, when they went 27-3 between July 3 and August 7. His first half of the season was the best of his career, after setting personal bests with 89 hits, 20 home runs, 38 extra-base hits, and 61 RBIs. That performance earned him his fourth All-Star Game selection at 34 years old and a spot in the Home Run Derby, where he was eliminated in the semifinals (9-8) during a memorable battle against Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber. Contreras' second half of the season was also solid, featuring a 143 wRC+. His offensive consistency helped propel the team into the playoffs and allowed him to record several personal milestones. He finished in MLB's 99th percentile in batting value, 96th in bat speed, 95th in xwOBA, 90th in barrels, and 89th in xSLG, with 27 home runs, 81 RBIs, 59 walks, a .386 on-base percentage, a .902 OPS, and 4.0 fWAR. His OPS was the second-best in the American League, and he led all first basemen with a 152 wRC+. The reason he finished second in fWAR was the offensive explosion by Baltimore Orioles first baseman Pete Alonso (4.3 fWAR), who caught fire at the plate with 20 home runs and 44 RBIs in his final 41 games between August and September. That production was part of a late-season stretch that also cost Houston Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez the Triple Crown. Contreras also stood out beyond his power and determination at the plate: he took a big step forward in on-base percentage, and I think that was what took his season to another level. For the first time in his entire career, he became an extreme pull hitter, with a 54.3 Pull%, a reasonable figure given the particularities of playing half his season at Fenway Park. But the turning point was not just about home runs, as Contreras hit 14 at home and 13 on the road. What stood out most was the consistency with which he adopted his new approach, accompanied by greater plate discipline, to finish the season with an elite on-base percentage and the second-highest BABIP (.336) among first basemen across the major leagues. Contreras' swing speed was another of his fundamental tools: he finished 10th overall in bat speed, at 77 mph. Once again, his results against fastballs were devastating, giving him his fifth consecutive season with at least 10 home runs. If we did not count the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, then it would be six seasons, since Contreras hit 13 home runs in 2019 and destroyed fastballs with a .512 xSLG. Given his high bat speed, opponents threw him more off-speed pitches than ever (14.8%), but he responded with a .301 batting average and a .504 xSLG against such offerings, despite his high 41.3% whiff rate. So, the league's adjustment was not enough in that area, and pitchers often opted to throw him more breaking pitches, against which his contact production fell to a .226 xBA, with a 35.3 K%. Even so, Contreras has recorded a .449 and .452 xSLG against breaking pitches over the last two seasons, so it is likely that his approach for next season will involve working to reduce his problems against that type of pitch. Contreras has a guaranteed contract through 2027 and a club option for 2028. Although repeating this impact at age 35 will be a challenge, his projections are encouraging. For that reason, the Red Sox's priority must be keeping him healthy across a full campaign, lest they lose one of the best power hitters from their lineup. View full article

The hope the Boston Red Sox have left is that they will not face Cam Schlittler again. And that difference, no matter how bad the offense looked yesterday, can be an incentive to readjust and try to come back stronger in Game 2. Schlittler silenced the Red Sox again by throwing a solid 6 1/3 innings with 10 strikeouts and only two hits allowed, in his first start of the entire year with more than 106 pitches. When many of us thought Schlittler was done after striking out Adley Rutschman—until that point he had the team’s only hit in 20 plate appearances—to close out the sixth inning, Yankees manager Aaron Boone sent him out to open the seventh. He threw 117 pitches and generated 24 swings and misses, a career high. Now, in two postseason starts against the Red Sox, after also eliminating them last year in the Wild Card Series, he is 2-0, with 14 1/3 scoreless innings, 22 strikeouts and only one walk. He is this team's newest kryptonite. Schlittler threw his fastball 56% of the time and averaged 98.6 mph—topping out at 101 mph—and it was clear that the Red Sox still cannot hit high velocity. But in Game 1, there was a much bigger problem against Schlittler’s mix, as, on their 11 balls put in play, there were only two batted balls that exceeded 95 mph in exit velocity. Both ended up as groundouts into the glove of Yankees second baseman Anthony Volpe: one by Caleb Durbin at 100.1 mph for the second out of the third inning, and the second out of the fifth inning, a ball hit by Nick Sogard at 96.3 mph. In part, everything is due to the fact that Schlittler’s version was even more lethal because of the way he mixed his pitches, using the curveball for the first time as the second weapon in his arsenal. He threw it for 27% of his 117 pitches, a career high. The results were overwhelming, as Boston’s hitters missed the curveball on 50% of their 16 swings. The Red Sox finished with the worst offense in the entire league against the curveball, batting just .184, and the second-worst slugging percentage at .298, only ahead of the Tampa Bay Rays. The Yankees will send Max Fried to the mound this Wednesday, in Game 2, who is 4-1 with a 1.93 ERA in his career against the Red Sox. They have scored one run against Fried in 11 2/3 innings this year, a solo home run by Sogard on August 29 at Yankee Stadium. If we extend it to his last five starts as a Yankee, including Game 2 of last year’s Wild Card, then Fried improves to 2-0 with a 0.92 ERA in 29 1/3 innings, with 32 strikeouts and 11 walks. For Boston, their plate discipline has been the best result in drawing those 11 walks against Fried, although the average number of batters reaching base against him per start is only seven. So, that will be part of Boston’s challenge, with a lineup that has hit for a poor combined offensive line of .207/.260/.331 with a .590 OPS, 36 strikeouts, and nine walks against Fried. This year, they have gone 0-for-9 against his curveball, with a 50% whiff rate. Fried does not have Schlittler’s sustained meteoric velocity, but he mixes seven pitches in his arsenal and most of them are quality offerings. None of them has allowed more than a .333 xBA this year and all of them exceed a 18% whiff rate. The formula becomes much more complicated when he faces the Red Sox, because he has dominated most of Boston’s key hitters. We can separate it into two groups, with the worst hitters and those who have hit Fried the best. Red Sox's Worst Hitters Against Max Fried Player B PA AB H 1B 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO TB BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GIDP Wilyer Abreu L 5 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 .200 .200 .200 .400 0 0 0 0 0 Willson Contreras R 14 11 2 0 2 0 0 2 3 4 4 .182 .357 .364 .721 0 0 0 0 0 Jarren Duran L 13 13 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 5 4 .154 .154 .308 .462 0 0 0 0 0 Ceddanne Rafaela R 16 16 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 6 2 .125 .125 .125 .250 0 0 0 0 0 Adley Rutschman B 12 10 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 .000 .083 .000 .083 0 1 0 0 0 Caleb Durbin R 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0 Andruw Monasterio R 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 .000 .200 .000 .200 0 0 0 0 0 Roman Anthony L 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0 Trevor Story R 20 19 4 1 1 0 2 5 1 7 11 .211 .250 .579 .829 0 0 0 0 0 Totals (Including Story) 93 86 11 4 5 0 2 8 6 29 22 .128 .183 .256 .439 0 1 0 0 0 Totals (Without Story) 73 67 7 3 4 0 0 3 5 22 11 .104 .164 .164 .329 0 1 0 0 0 Here we have eight of Boston’s nine starters from Game 1, and you can see that the only hitter who could add a little offensive heat is veteran Trevor Story, who has hit two of the three home runs and has five of the 12 RBIs from the entire roster. Without Story, the offensive line drops from .128/.183/.256 with a .439 OPS to .104/.164/.164 with a .329 OPS. Fried’s biggest advantage has been his combined dominance against Adley Rutschman, Caleb Durbin, Andruw Monasterio and Roman Anthony, who have gone 0-for-22 combined with six strikeouts. Another interesting detail here is that left-handed hitters are 3-for-21 against Fried, with eight strikeouts and no walks. Abreu is one of the team’s key hitters and, although he has not done particularly well against Fried, he is immovable. However, Red Sox manager Chad Tracy will have to choose whether he will keep Anthony(who might not even be healthy) and Duran in the starting lineup. Red Sox's Best Hitters Against Max Fried Player B PA AB H 1B 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO TB BA OBP SLG OPS SH SF IBB HBP GIDP Nick Sogard B 4 4 3 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 6 .750 .750 1.500 2.250 0 0 0 0 0 Nate Eaton R 5 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 .667 .800 .667 1.467 0 0 0 0 0 Jahmai Jones R 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .500 .500 .500 1.000 0 0 0 0 0 Isiah Kiner-Falefa R 11 11 4 4 0 0 0 2 0 2 4 .364 .364 .364 .727 0 0 0 0 1 Connor Wong R 15 14 4 3 1 0 0 1 1 4 5 .286 .333 .357 .690 0 0 0 0 1 Totals 37 34 14 12 1 0 1 4 3 6 18 .412 .459 .529 .989 0 0 0 0 2 Nick Sogard leads the list, and the rest of the hitters are right-handed, an interesting point that reveals a certain profile advantage, so we could see one of them getting an at-bat as a pinch hitter or a starting spot. For Boston, the ultimate key will be knowing when to attack Fried at the precise moment, especially by extending their plate discipline. Right-handed hitters like Contreras, Rafaela, Story and perhaps Nate Eaton getting a starting spot will continue to carry the most weight in the offensive profile, but it is clear that the Red Sox will need quality at-bats throughout the lineup. If they can draw enough pitches to prevent Fried from going more than five innings, then the story of Game 2 could change if they face the less dominant part of the Yankees' bullpen. View full article

The Boston Red Sox's pitching staff was among the best in the American League in the second half of the season, leading the Junior Circuit in fWAR (11.5) between the rotation and bullpen, behind only the Dodgers in MLB. While the team has spent most of September with offensive problems, averaging 3.0 runs per game, the pitching has maintained the competitive pace. Although pitching will not be the Red Sox’ biggest problem heading into the Wild Card Series against the Yankees, here are some interesting trends from the second half of the season that we should keep in perspective. Brayan Bello Closed the Season On A Heater Brayan Bello is one of the pitchers who has closed the season best on the Red Sox's staff, especially since he returned from Triple-A and began pitching on July 12. In 12 of his 14 appearances during that span, opponents have scored one run or fewer against him. During this stretch, only Payton Tolle (2.3) and Sonny Gray (1.6) have recorded a better fWAR than Bello (1.2). In fact, he has been much more dominant in his last four appearances, pitching to a 0.48 ERA and 2.08 FIP with 22 strikeouts and only three walks in 18 1/3 innings. The only run he has allowed came on a home run by Jonathan Aranda on September 19 in his best outing of the entire campaign, featuring eight innings and 11 strikeouts. The key point of the dominance has been the effect of his breaking balls, which have generated more whiffs, raising their rate from 40% to 45.8%, between August and September. In addition, his opponents’ Perfect Contact rate went from 10% to 0%. His fastball is also starting to shape up; part of the process has been in the improvements to his vertical movement. After falling to 10.2 IVB in June, his worst mark, he is at 12.6 so far in September. However, although he has had a small sample, hitters are still batting .350 (7-for-20) against his fastball, including the only home run he allowed during the month. Jake Bennett’s Breaking Balls Have Stopped Fooling Hitters Jake Bennett found a better version of the sinker in this second half of the season, reducing his batting average allowed from .235 to .210 and improved his strikeout rate from 17.6% to 26.6%. But the rest of the arsenal does not show the same progression in dominance. The whiff rate of the changeup, his main weapon, fell slightly from 33.8% to 27%, while on the breaking balls, competitive swings rose to 100%. That is a signal to follow, since Bennett has gone through many innings this season surviving because of hitters’ problems identifying his pitches. His Flawed Swing rates of 18% with the cutter and 13% when he throws the curveball carry the great weight of his repertoire. Now, a key point about the contact he is allowing in this second half of the season is that opponents raised their over contact rate, increasing from 28% to 42% (i.e., how often they swung over the top of the ball). In part, other metrics show that they are getting to his breaking ball, but they are often hitting ground balls. Ranger Suárez's Fastballs Became Too Hittable The main signal with Suárez is in his fastball. Competitive swings increased from 80.9% to 94.1% in the second half, his whiffs decreased (from 12.7% to 11.8%), while his perfect contact rates practically did not change. The result has been a jump from opposing hitters against the pitch, from a .223/.255/.320 slash line to .361/.623/.412 during this second half of the season. Suárez will have to work on his command and find the corners again, since hitters of both profiles are destroying his command mistakes when the pitch hangs in the upper part of the zone. Tyron Guerrero Needs To Trust His Stuff Against Right-Handed Batters Tyron’s season has been a great story of overcoming adversity as one of the key pitchers in the Red Sox's bullpen. However, he has not been able to control his problems against right-handed hitters, allowing a .318 average after limiting them to just .205 in the first half of the season. Guerrero’s K% has also fallen dangerously from 21.4% to 13%. He has only two pitches against righties, featuring his sinker 82.2% of the time and sometimes tossing his slider in the mix. Throughout the season, the vulnerable point has been his battle to limit contact, as righties have hit .299 with a .358 slugging percentage against his sinker. The exit velocity of the 58 balls put in play is 81.9 mph. With that exit velocity, his opponents are averaging a .260 xBA, so I don’t need to tell you that they have had a little bit of luck. In contrast, Guerrero’s slider remains sharp, limiting righties to just a .125 average and .188 slugging percentage. Perhaps a better mix of his two primary offerings will yield better results (or at least combat some of that poor fortune). View full article

During their historic streak that changed the season between July 3 and August 7, the Boston Red Sox played to a 27-3 record and scored 180 runs, averaging six per game. The great comeback began when the Red Sox were playing to a 37-48 record and ended at 64-51, 13 games over .500. In just 36 days, the season took a complete turn and, from then on, the organization began thinking about the postseason. However, they have reached the end of the regular season in a very different situation. In their first 21 games of September, they have averaged 3.0 runs per game, half of what they achieved during that historic winning streak. Let’s explore here some of the most alarming trends the Red Sox offense is leaving us with at this end of the second half of the season. Wilyer Abreu Has Stopped Pulling the Ball In September Wilyer Abreu continues to make a difference as one of the Red Sox’s key hitters, especially during this second half, with a 122 wRC+ after recording a 109 mark in the first. His profile remains consistent against both sides, with a 104 wRC+ vs LHP and 130 vs RHP, but where he has stood out the most is in pressure situations, recording a 113 wRC+ with RISP and a 123 wRC+ in high-leverage situations. Abreu has found company in Caleb Durbin, another one of the bats that has responded best during this stretch, while Willson Contreras, the main man of the offense, has missed time on the injured list. However, the right fielder has fallen off this September, although the sample is still not enough to consider it concerning. After an August in which he hit .279/.384/.587 with seven home runs, his production fell to .225/.304/.352 this month, with just one home run on his ledger. The drop also appears in the quality of his contact, as his hard-hit rate went from 49.4% in August to 39.6% now. Abreu is seeing more pitches that prevent him from unleashing his ability to pull the ball, to the point that his Pull% fell from 43.5% to 26.4%. That may be the worst trend entering the postseason, as he's at his absolute best when slugging balls to right field. Adley Rutschman Is Failing Against Lefties and In the Clutch We know the great complement that Rutschman provides with his talent, bringing an elite bat and good defense at his best. But the backstop, even before arriving at the Red Sox at the trade deadline, was already going through many offensive problems. Right now, he is the clearest case of a devastating offensive decline. His wRC+ went from 115 in the first half of the season to 79 after the All-Star break, but the strongest signal is in his marked problems against lefties, against whom he has recorded a -21 wRC+ in 36 plate appearances (.139/.139/.194) in this second half of the season. Rutschman improves when he bats from the left side, and the hope is that he continues hitting righties as he has done in general, producing a 121 wRC+. But his problems at the plate do not end here, as he has not fulfilled his offensive role at least with the expectations the Red Sox had in the moments that define games. In high-leverage situations, he has collapsed to a -80 wRC+ in 15 plate appearances during this second half of the season, with a .067/.067/.067 slash line. The sample is small, but it could carry a lot of weight in a tense three-game Wild Card Series. Roman Anthony Has Gotten Too Aggressive The clearest signal in Roman Anthony's struggles is against lefties, precisely one of his strengths last year, when he averaged a solid .438 BABIP and 113 wRC+ in 98 plate appearances. In the second half this year, he has a 42 wRC+ in 39 PAs, to go along with a .189/.231/.297 slash line, .235 wOBA and .207 BABIP. The story changes against righties, with a 133 wRC+ and .366 wOBA. The difference is enormous. As you can see in this graph, since his return at the end of August, Anthony has had a high rate of swings and misses in the outside area, especially chasing pitches in several parts outside the strike zone. At the most important moment of the season, Anthony will need to show incredible maturity to rein in his aggressiveness at the plate. Can Jarren Duran Improve On Last Year's Postseason Slump? With the unfortunate injury to Mickey Gasper, Duran’s role could be more important than perhaps expected heading into October. His second half has been better than the first, but his recovery has been far from productive in the situations of greatest pressure. He had just 35 wRC+ in 27 high-leverage plate appearances, with a .130/.259/.304 slash, and could be considered the worst hitter on the team after recording a 60 wRC+ in 68 PAs with RISP during the second half of the season. In whatever role Boston plans for Duran as a starter, he will have to change that recent history. What seems a little contradictory is that Duran’s problem has not been against lefties, against whom he has averaged a 99 wRC+ since the All-Star break. Surprised? Well, yes, it has been the righties who have limited his swing to just a 71 wRC+ and an offensive line of .214/.279/.321. Duran will need to draw on his experience for this moment, as he entered last season's postseason run in a similar state of decline. What was the result? He finished 1-for-11 with four strikeouts and no walks against the pitching of the New York Yankees in the Red Sox’s loss in the Wild Card Series. View full article

The Boston Red Sox's offense is going through one of its worst collective slumps of the entire season in terms of run production, the worst news just a few series remain before the regular season ends. It is almost certain that they will face the New York Yankees again in the Wild Card Series, as happened last year, in a series where two of the most dominant pitching staffs in the league will face each other. To determine who earns the pass to the Division Series, the offense will be a key point, especially in a best-of-three clash. In nine of their first 15 games of September, the Red Sox have gone hitless or with just one hit with runners in scoring position. They have a 3-9 record in those games and have combined for just 5-for-57 with RISP, with 18 strikeouts and 10 walks. This stretch of inconsistencies is not new; Between March and June, when the team played to a 37-47 record with a minus-10 run differential, the average number of runs scored per game was 4.0. So far in September, they have recorded 3.6. What makes the lack of timely hitting even more concerning is that the Red Sox’s success has been based precisely on taking advantage of key moments and making the most of them. This season, they have accumulated 25 wins while scoring four or fewer runs, and in only four of those games have they gone hitless with runners in scoring position. It is clear that this team can win games in many ways, but Boston’s chances of success are reduced to a minimum when they cannot get hits in RISP situations. The statistic is devastating: they have lost 24 of the 28 games in which they have been unable to get hits in that situation. To continue going deeper into this situation, I divided two key stretches of Boston’s season: a first period, when they played to a 34-8 record and the team completed the great comeback before the end of the first half of the season, between June 19 and August 7, and a second stretch from August 8 until now. I chose the offensive statistics only in high-leverage situations, and it turns out that, since August 7, the Red Sox have posted the worst BABIP in the league (.184), and have fallen to 29th in batting average with just .180, line drive percentage (12.0%) and hard-hit rate (25.0%). On the other hand, while the team was on its winning streak in the first period, the Red Sox led the league in slugging (.606), ISO (.269), placed second in OPS (1.001) and wRC+ (167), and third with the highest contact rate against pitches in the strike zone (91.5%). PERIOD PA BB% K% AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO BABIP wOBA wRC+ Soft% Hard% O-Contact% Z-Contact% JUN 19 - AUG 7 130 10.8% 16.2% .337 .395 .606 1.001 .269 .349 .411 167 9.5% 40.0% 44.4% 91.5% SINCE AUG 8 165 9.7% 20.6% .180 .272 .374 .646 .194 .184 .272 75 17.9% 25.0% 63.3% 88.8% Here, we can reach more interesting conclusions by comparing both periods for the Red Sox in high-leverage situations. In this second stretch, the loss of impact and production has been evident. Strikeouts have gone up by 4.4 percentage points, which has been joined by a higher amount in soft-contact percentage (8.4% difference), along with the 15-point drop in hard-hit rate. Yes, the rate of contacts outside the strike zone has risen by 18.9%, but it has not been able to result in hard contact that generates production. Although the offensive samples are smaller when we analyze the hitters individually, the chaos is perfectly illustrated. Hitter PA Jun 19–Aug 7 PA Since Aug 8 Key Change Ceddanne Rafaela 14 .429 AVG / .429 OBP / .929 SLG / 1.357 OPS / 278 wRC+ 14 .100 / .143 / .100 / .243 OPS / -74 wRC+ -1.114 OPS / -352 wRC+ Wilyer Abreu 17 .300 / .385 / .900 / 1.285 OPS / 209 wRC+ 12 .188 / .235 / .375 / .610 OPS / 62 wRC+ -.675 OPS / -147 wRC+ Caleb Durbin 13 .500 / .600 / .750 / 1.350 OPS / 278 wRC+ 17 .100 / .250 / .400 / .650 OPS / 52 wRC+ -.700 OPS / -226 wRC+ Andruw Monasterio 7 .444 / .500 / 1.111 / 1.611 OPS / 333 wRC+ 14 .000 / .000 / .000 / .000 OPS / -100 wRC+ -1.611 OPS / -433 wRC+ Masataka Yoshida 12 .273 / .333 / .455 / .788 OPS / 117 wRC+ 4 .000 / .000 / .000 / .000 OPS / -100 wRC+ -.788 OPS / -217 wRC+ Jarren Duran 11 .250 / .286 / .250 / .536 OPS / 22 wRC+ 17 .143 / .250 / .429 / .679 OPS / 65 wRC+ +.143 OPS / 43 wRC+ Willson Contreras 5 .500 / .714 / .750 / 1.464 OPS / 301 wRC+ 22 .182 / .357 / .455 / .812 OPS / 132 wRC+ -.652 OPS / -169 wRC+ Nick Sogard 14 .333 / .500 / .333 / .833 OPS / 155 wRC+ 16 .118 / .250 / .353 / .603 OPS / 67 wRC+ -.230 OPS / -88 wRC+ What I like most about these samples is that the number of at-bats adjusts to a similar sample of at-bats in any short postseason series. The collapse has been so significant that only Jarren Duran has a slight improvement with 143 points of OPS and 43 points of wRC+, although the mark of 65 since August 8 remains mediocre. At the same time, the numbers during the winning streak provide a little encouragement, and they marked a moment when the Red Sox seemed unstoppable. It is clear that they can do it again. But this is not about some hitters getting hot; the offense as a whole needs to function as it did in its best version of the season, building runs, running the bases intelligently, and connecting the key hits in clutch situations. View full article

Andruw Monasterio is in a slump, hitting just .111/.155/.130 in 58 plate appearances in his last 16 games, but the doubts of the Boston Red Sox are much more pressing in this final stretch of the season: how much can the team trust that he will return to offering the depth they need? Will he be able to get close to his July version at the plate, the only outstanding stretch this year? As the postseason approaches, there are more doubts than answers surrounding the versatile Venezuelan infielder. Monasterio has had a season plagued by inconsistencies. His swing has improved against fastballs and off-speed pitches compared to last season, but that has not been enough to avoid his inconsistency. During the first half of the season, Monasterio produced a puzzling .229/.280/.414, with 89 wRC+. Then July arrived and, for a moment, his swing caught fire and produced an offensive line of .338/.413/.631, with a 1.044 OPS and 185 wRC+. He added almost 100 points of wRC+ compared to the first half of the season. The improvements came with two key adjustments: he stopped chasing pitches outside the strike zone, reducing his O-Swing% rate to 22.9%, the lowest percentage in any month of this campaign. He also stopped hitting a large number of ground balls—his rate dropped to 21.2%—getting more optimal contact, which influenced the overall results deriving in a 49.1% Hard Hit%. Even so, Monasterio did not manage to extend his best adjustments. The small peak of offensive heat began to decline again. For four weeks, he had recorded more than his best peripheral numbers, the quality at-bats that the Red Sox needed. His problems against breaking pitches, which have been frequent all year, also began to worsen again. Monasterio had produced .395 xSLG in July, after carrying .223 and .210 averages in May and June, respectively. The inconsistency returned, falling to .266 in August and .037 this month of September. The problem went beyond offense and, being honest, that is what has complicated everything. Monasterio’s versatility has been an important part of his value to the team. That is undeniable. He has played most of the time as a shortstop this year, but he has also moved to second, first and third base. That has had a heat, especially when Monasterio took care of covering Trevor Story’s absence due to injury. On paper, it is difficult for a team to discard the contribution of a player capable of adding great defensive depth on his own. In many cases, offensive inconsistency can be forgiven. However, in Monasterio’s case this year, that ability to play several positions has not become a defensive strength at each of them. If we look at the offensive aspect, I think it is a little surprising that Monasterio has been able to provide his best production at such a demanding position as shortstop. In the 53 games he has played as a shortstop, he registers 99 wRC+, his highest average at any position this year. On the other hand, here is the point that the Red Sox should analyze the most as October approaches: Monasterio has -14 Outs Above Average this season, and he is the worst defender on the team in FRV. Much of that negative result comes from his regression with -9 as a shortstop, but he has also had a negative balance with -3 at second and -2 at first. His offensive collapse and the terrible season he has gone through on defense is going to put the Red Sox in a difficult position once postseason rosters need to be set. The final few weeks of the regular season will be decisive for Monasterio's immediate future with the team. View full article

In his first 12 outings of the season between March and June, Brayan Bello reached a point where he did not seem to have enough confidence in any choice from his arsenal. The sinker, his primary pitch, was allowing a 53% hard-hit rate. When he chose the cutter, hitters feasted, producing five home runs in just 39 plate appearances. His changeup, the pitch that made him a revelation in 2022, was allowing a .386 slugging percentage. His continued struggles also compromised his sweeper, which, despite standing out as the pitch that was working best, was generating swings and misses on just 23.4% of attempts. Bello finished that stretch with a 2-6 record, a 6.34 ERA and a 5.01 FIP, while 31% of the hits (78) he allowed went for extra bases, including 10 home runs. After his first start in June against Baltimore, Bello was sent to Triple-A Worcester having just allowed eight earned runs in five innings. Time and Bello’s adjustments have shown that the Red Sox made the right decision. Two months later, Bello’s return has been a completely different version: He has stopped throwing his curveball, he is using fewer sinkers, the cutter has not allowed another home run and the changeup is generating much weaker contact. His most consistent pitch all year, the sweeper, has started generating swings and misses again, with a high 40% rate. In 11 outings since his return, Bello is pitching to a 2.59 ERA, a 3.04 FIP and his SO/BB ratio has improved to 4.8. He has allowed just one home run against 172 batters over this stretch, and the Red Sox have gone 7-4 in those games. Bello has made a difference with all of his pitches. But of all of them, these are the three changes that stand out most to me. Brayan Bello's Sinker Is Usable Again This is still the pitch opponents are hitting best, but Bello’s adjustment has allowed him to get better results, especially in his decisions within the at-bat. Although he is using it 11.1% less frequently, his strikeout rate has increased by 4.6% and his walks have dropped 7.7%. Hitters are still producing almost the exact same batting average, .317 compared to .316 in the first stretch of the season, but Bello has avoided a large number of hard-hit balls. I have a theory that I would like to continue investigating because, despite keeping its velocity intact at 95.3 mph, Bello’s sinker has degraded by losing 0.7 inches of arm-side run. It has also gained 0.5 inches of induced vertical break (IVB), which was preventing the movement toward hitters’ hands and producing more ground balls. If you look at Bello’s splits, you will see that left-handed hitters are batting .807 OPS this season and right-handed hitters .698. However, right-handed hitters are the ones who have punished his sinker the most, particularly on the inner part of the zone. This report belongs to this second stretch for Bello since he returned to the big-league club in July. Right-handed hitters are still hitting the pitch hard in the middle and in the areas in on them, where the sinker should continue working on the vertical movement it lost during the first stretch. When the location of those pitches moves away from the middle, the results change and, even in the worst-case scenario of this sample, Bello has allowed just one home run. Now, the question is whether the sinker will continue to progress, since it remains one of his most reliable pitches in decisive counts. Brayan Bello's Sweeper Is Fooling Hitters Again The jump from a 23.4% to a 40.0% whiff rate is huge, and now that Bello’s sweeper is less overloaded, he can rely more on his other stuff and come back to finish hitters with its movement. In just seven fewer plate appearances compared to the stretch before he was sent to the minors, the sweeper went from allowing a .207 to a .100 batting average and from a .241 to a .100 slugging percentage. Part of what I love about this point is that Bello has reduced contact, and he has done it by getting right-handed hitters to chase. Notice that hitters have been missing at just one point inside the strike zone, with a 50% whiff rate on sweepers that have stayed up. In every other part of the zone, they are making contact. The spots where Bello is dominating the most are the edges of the outside corner, but the sweeper is also doing damage inside. His strikeouts have improved by 8.1%, and the movement he is getting has been crucial to keeping the sweeper on the minds of hitters. Brayan Bello's Secondaries Are Alive Again This is probably the most striking change in terms of offensive production: from five home runs allowed to none, with a .412 drop in slugging percentage and an 8.9-point drop in hard-hit rate. Bello’s strikeouts using the cutter have increased by 12.9%, and hitters have a 50.0% whiff rate. Sometimes, a major adjustment is not just about location or velocity. For Bello, it has been about the way his mix is getting a better effect in every sense. Now, it feels more like hitters are less prepared for the cutter. He is throwing it 3.5% less frequently, but its effectiveness with two strikes has been much more revealing. And the changeup? Good question. The changeup has remained one of his best weapons for strikeouts and, above all, reducing hard contact from his opponents. When hitters were destroying almost all of Bello’s offerings between March and June, the changeup still had life. The league was hitting .273/.271/.386 against it with a high 35.9 hard-hit rate, but it was still a weapon for generating swings and misses. So, Bello did not have to do much, other than rearrange his repertoire. He has used at roughly the same rate, mostly when he has been ahead in the count. The result? Less hard contact, reducing his hard-hit rate by 15.9%, and much more dominance, with a 106-point drop in batting average allowed and .148 less in slugging. Overall, as we have analyzed here, Bello has regained confidence in his sinker, while the sweeper and changeup have once again become two of his main weapons. The cutter has also undergone important adjustments, and hitters, who batted .563 against his fastball between March and June, have fallen to .278 since July. Having him back in command gives the Red Sox a much-needed right-handed weapon on a pitching staff whose depth is defined by consistent left-handed arms. Now, we just have to keep watching the evolution of his outings as the league adjusts to this new version of Brayan Bello. View full article

Has the magic of the changeup disappeared? Is the workload and pressure too much? Has the league made adjustments and is the improvement in velocity not enough? Those are some of the questions surrounding Boston Red Sox left-hander Jovani Morán, who is in the midst of a serious second-half slide. Morán posted a 3.83 xFIP in 25 outings during that initial stretch, but since the All-Star break, that average has risen to 4.78 and his opponents’ OPS has increased from .550 to .788. To analyze the reasons for his inefficiency, we have to begin by remembering one key point: Morán pitched only four innings in 2025 due to Tommy John surgery that kept him out for the remainder of the season. The last season in which he had seen action was 2023, when he appeared in 43 games and posted an 83 ERA+ with the Minnesota Twins. This year he has been back with Boston, and has already matched his career-high of 43 appearances, although with a heavier workload, with 58 ⅓ innings, surpassing the 42 ⅓ innings he pitched in 2023. So, for 29-year-old Morán, this season has been a story of overcoming adversity. His changeup is back and has been lethal, generating a 48.8 whiff rate, and his fastball, although it has lost some velocity, has held opposing hitters to a .152 batting average. Even with this decline in the second half of the season, Morán still remains in the 95th percentile in HardHit%, the 91st in whiff rate, and the 89th in xBA, which demonstrates his ability to limit hard contact and balls put in play. But this profile was not built easily. Morán had to earn his opportunities and make his way into one of the most dominant and stable bullpens in the majors this year. The Red Sox gave him some secondary roles until he earned their trust. Of his 43 relief appearances, Morán has appeared in 22 of them to protect leads or keep the score tied. His other 21 appearances have come in situations when the team was trailing, with 16 of them from the sixth inning onward, and 12 when the opponent had a lead of three or more runs. In other words, throughout the year, Boston has used him in both roles, and the statistics show that Morán has been able to handle the pressure. Of course, he has had to deal with several difficult situations, and in three of his worst failures, the Red Sox were unable to recover. Date Entered Exited Team Opp Result Inngs Dec DR IR IS IP H R ER HR BB SO BF ERA FIP 20/4/2026 6t --- 0 out tie 6t 1-3 0 out d1 BOS DET W, 8-6 6-6 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 2 0 3 2.03 3.17 12/5/2026 1t --- 0 out tie 1t 3 out d1 BOS PHI L, 1-2 GS-1 L(0-1) 1 - - 1 1 1 1 1 0 2 4 3.18 5.17 23/5/2026 1t --- 0 out tie 1t 3 out d2 BOS MIN L, 2-4 GS-1 L(0-2) 2 - - 1 3 2 2 0 0 1 6 3.38 4.26 31/7/2026 5b 1-- 2 out a1 6b 1-- 0 out d1 BOS @ LAD W, 9-4 5-6 2 1 1 1/3 3 1 1 1 0 0 4 2.84 3.82 19/8/2026 10t -2- 0 out tie 10t 3 out d2 BOS ARI L, 6-7 (10) 10-GF(10) L(2-3) 1 0 0 1 1 2 1 0 3 0 6 3.06 4.04 The first two losses came in the first half of the season, when Morán was tested as an opener. It was not the team’s best moment, and in the end the offense could not erase the early deficit. Then came a failure against the Los Angeles Dodgers, when Morán left a changeup in the middle of the zone and Shohei Ohtani hit a home run that gave the Dodgers a 4-3 lead in the bottom of the fifth. The Red Sox came back with a five-run rally in the seventh, and Morán’s misstep did not hurt the team. The most recent story was on August 19, when Morán entered to pitch in the 10th inning and allowed a couple of runs after issuing three walks to six batters. That summarizes his most difficult moments so far this season, but the statistics show that, in general, he has been able to overcome the pressure. Player Split Year sOPS+ ERA G GS IP SO/9 SO/BB BA OBP SLG OPS Erik Miller Late & Close 2026 25 0.00 8 0 9 16.0 4.0 .156 .270 .156 .427 Garrett Whitlock Late & Close 2026 27 1.32 36 0 34 10.6 13.3 .179 .197 .248 .445 Jovani Morán Late & Close 2026 30 0.73 12 0 12.1 11.0 1.7 .119 .275 .167 .441 Danny Coulombe Late & Close 2026 56 5.14 12 0 7 3.9 1.5 .240 .296 .240 .536 Aroldis Chapman Late & Close 2026 70 2.06 44 0 39.1 11.4 3.1 .196 .277 .315 .591 Brayan Bello Late & Close 2026 79 1.59 5 0 5.2 6.4 1.3 .238 .333 .286 .619 Greg Weissert Late & Close 2026 104 3.48 14 0 10.1 7.8 2.3 .275 .356 .350 .706 Tyron Guerrero Late & Close 2026 122 4.80 21 0 15 5.4 3.0 .300 .344 .433 .777 Justin Slaten Late & Close 2026 126 5.40 24 0 18.1 13.3 5.4 .276 .321 .474 .795 After Erik Miller and Garret Whitlock, Morán has allowed the lowest sOPS+ in the entire bullpen in leverage situations, with a 0.73 ERA and the lowest batting average allowed. This is an interesting aspect that explains how Morán has responded in his role, but it still does not answer our question about what has caused his inconsistencies. The answer is in workload management, and it is more revealing than I expected. SPLIT G IP H R ER HR BF ERA BA OBP SLG OPS K9 BB9 K/BB 20+ Pitches 22 28 2/3 21 16 16 7 123 5.02 .198 .301 .406 .706 9.10 4.39 4.71 1-20 Pitches 21 12 2/3 6 3 3 0 49 2.13 .140 .224 .186 .411 9.94 3.55 6.39 0-1 Days of Rest 13 13 16 12 11 5 66 7.62 .296 .415 .611 1.026 9.00 7.62 1.38 Here are the two turning points that connect with our concerns about his workload: when Morán throws between one and 20 pitches, his opponents have posted a .411 OPS with a 6.39 K/BB. That story of dominance changes considerably once he surpasses the 20-pitch threshold, with seven home runs allowed and a .706 OPS against 123 batters. The following situation reinforces the workload problem even further: In 13 outings between consecutive appearances or with one day of rest, Morán has been at his most vulnerable. In those spots, he's running a 7.62 ERA, a 1.026 OPS allowed and only a 1.38 K/BB. In 12 appearances during the month of August, Morán posted a 5.79 ERA and a 6.38 FIP, with 13 strikeouts, 10 walks and three home runs allowed in 14 innings. Only three of those relief appearances came on consecutive days, including the worst of all, when he allowed five runs and two home runs in 1 ⅓ innings against the New York Yankees on August 30. In the end, Morán closed the month without allowing runs in nine of his 12 relief appearances, but in only two of them, against the Pirates and the Yankees, he ended up allowing eight runs. That last image, I believe, best illustrates Morán’s battle to maintain the consistency of his pitches, and showed that the high volume of work is weighing on him at the end of the season. Even with the recent loss of Tayron Guerrero to the injured list, the Red Sox have ways to handle high-pressure situations in the bullpen; giving the southpaw a chance to rest a little more will benefit the team greatly in the playoffs. View full article

When it seemed that the time to prove his talent had expired, Tyron Guerrero has become one of the main pitching revelations of 2026 for the Boston Red Sox. He has done it at 35 years old, after arriving in Boston with a negative -1.6 bWAR and a career 5.77 ERA in 113 games pitched between the ages of 25 and 28 with the San Diego Padres and Miami Marlins. Guerrero last pitched this past Monday, and then the Red Sox announced that he had been placed on the 15-day injured list due to inflammation in his right shoulder. That night, he was able to record just one out against the Seattle Mariners in his 38th relief appearance of the season. He allowed three hits and an equal number of runs and walked a batter before wasting a two-run lead. Clearly, something was off in his game. In 23 of his 38 relief appearances, he has secured at least one inning without allowing runs or inherited runners to score. In that span, he has accumulated 18 holds, a statistic that, although it does not define a reliever’s dominance by itself, offers another interesting point about how middle relievers get the necessary outs to keep the team with the lead. Every one of Guerrero’s accomplishments, no matter how small it may seem, has meant the biggest leap of his career. I confess that, when the Red Sox began using him, my biggest faith was in the strength of his prodigious arm. So Boston deserves a lot of credit, because Guerrero has brought more than his supersonic velocity with a sinker that averages 100.2 mph, stability and strength to the bullpen. Along with the sinker, he has an uncomfortable 91.5 mph slider that has left the opposition with a .123 average. In all his previous experience, he had thrown only four sinkers. It was in 2018, when he was pitching for the Marlins. So, the experiment worked, and Guerrero has gone through every inning trusting his sinker on 85.7% of his pitches. No reliever who has pitched at least 30 innings this season uses the sinker or another pitch more than Guerrero—the only one who comes close is Kenley Jansen, who throws his cutter 84.6% of the time. As such, the big story here is what Guerrero is accomplishing with his primary lethal weapon. Pitcher L/R Pitches PA Whiff % xBA xSLG K % Guerrero, Tyron RHP 491 130 22.6% .223 .308 21.5% Alvarado, José LHP 606 142 21.6% .272 .394 15.5% Uribe, Abner RHP 481 123 21.0% .264 .346 17.9% Mayza, Tim LHP 486 123 20.2% .228 .318 21.1% Brazobán, Huascar RHP 435 115 19.6% .265 .387 12.2% Morejon, Adrian LHP 548 139 19.3% .265 .335 12.2% O'Brien, Riley RHP 552 150 17.4% .291 .436 18.0% Doval, Camilo RHP 368 103 17.1% .252 .362 12.6% Ashby, Aaron LHP 683 158 16.6% .270 .380 11.4% Thompson, Ryan RHP 409 112 15.6% .295 .374 10.7% Peralta, Wandy LHP 407 110 15.3% .217 .343 10.0% Bazardo, Eduard RHP 622 170 15.2% .279 .444 21.8% Miles, Spencer RHP 433 114 15.1% .233 .311 19.3% Bernardino, Brennan LHP 331 105 15.1% .277 .397 11.4% Kelly, Kevin RHP 490 134 14.8% .304 .440 11.2% Holderman, Colin RHP 424 110 14.2% .286 .437 10.0% Suter, Brent LHP 426 106 13.4% .268 .392 17.9% Moll, Sam LHP 384 104 12.9% .319 .457 7.7% Swanson, Matt RHP 347 114 12.8% .330 .500 14.9% Rogers, Tyler RHP 687 194 12.5% .239 .316 10.8% Ferrer, José A. LHP 659 181 12.3% .263 .409 13.3% Brubaker, JT RHP 445 111 9.9% .317 .516 15.3% Bruihl, Justin LHP 505 135 9.8% .294 .378 6.7% Hill, Tim LHP 590 178 9.7% .272 .408 6.7% Among several elite pitchers with elite pitches, the results show that Guerrero’s great dominance of the sinker has a place at the highest level. He has the highest whiff rate and the lowest xSLG allowed among the 24 relievers who have finished at least 100 plate appearances with a sinker. He also stands out with the second-highest strikeout rate, being surpassed by just 0.3% by the Mariners right-hander, Eduard Bazardo. He also has the second-lowest xBA allowed, behind Padres left-hander Wandy Peralta. And, you know, he has achieved that phenomenal impact throwing the sinker 85.7% of the time, which seems crazy. Now let’s go a little deeper, because the breakdown by profiles takes us to a couple of interesting details. Let’s look at these two graphs. On the left, we have Guerrero’s sinker whiff rates against right-handed hitters. Its power remains in the high-and-inside part of the zone, the same areas where left-handed hitters miss his pitches. There is not enough of a sample to compare the previous sinker that he threw, but this year it excels with -5.2 inches of induced vertical break compared with the MLB average. That is the main effect of his adjustments that is helping limit the impact of his opponents, especially against left-handed hitters, who have a 32.9 whiff% and only a .230 xSLG. On the other hand, right-handed hitters have been more difficult to beat. His whiff rate drops to 10.8%, with a dangerous rise to a .377 xSLG and .339 BABIP. Guerrero still has control against both profiles, but he will need more from his slider and splitter to try to reduce contact. It is possible (if not likely) that Guerrero will be back in a couple of weeks. It does not appear, at least for now, to be an injury that projects a prolonged absence. Boston’s expectation, for now, is that he could return around September 16 or shortly after. His arm has been key and, for the Red Sox, his presence in the late innings of games will be necessary down the stretch of the season. View full article

The Boston Red Sox are 5-1 in the six starts since Ranger Suarez returned from the injured list on July 26. In his last three starts, he has started to increase his pitch volume to more than 80. Amid the adjustments during these outings, Suárez has seen his strikeout rate drop by 8.4%, while walks have increased by 2.7%. That lack of strikeouts and the increase in on-base percentage have pushed his FIP to 4.61 during this stretch, well above the 3.25 he recorded in his 17 starts before going on the injured list. Opposing hitters are taking advantage by attacking him more in the strike zone and have improved contact by a slight 3.3%. They are also chasing more (11.1%), due to the mix of his secondary pitches, the cutter, changeup, and curveball. However, there is a problem Suárez has to solve, and it does not exactly correspond to his return: his inconsistency with the sinker. Month/Year RHB% LHB% PA SO% HR xBA xSLG xwOBA Whiff% PutAway% 4 / 2026 68.2% 31.8% 53 17.0% 0 .294 .371 .334 11.1 27.3 5 / 2026 52.0% 48.0% 26 23.1% 1 .262 .377 .325 23.3 33.3 6 / 2026 38.4% 61.6% 28 21.4% 1 .300 .465 .358 13.6 23.1 7 / 2026 45.7% 54.3% 12 8.3% 0 .365 .439 .351 14.3 14.3 8 / 2026 47.8% 52.2% 21 9.5% 1 .398 .568 .446 3.8 11.1 Since last June, Suárez has been using his sinker much more against left-handed hitters. The results we see in this summary are general and show the combined adjustment of both profiles against his sinker. More contact, more power, and fewer swings and misses. The PutAway% from this last month gives us a preview that Suárez has stopped using the sinker as a weapon to finish his most important counts. Since returning from the injured list, the xwOBA has skyrocketed to another level. All of that is clear. But the big difference here is not being made by right-handed hitters. It is left-handed hitters who are getting most of the quality at-bats against Suárez. And that is not the worst part. Over the last four seasons, that trend has continued to increase against the sinker. Period L/R Pitches PA K% BB% HR% xBA xOBP xSLG xwOBA BABIP Whiff% EV (MPH) Hard Hit% Barrel/BBE% 2023-2026 LHP 825 265 13.2 2.6 3.0% .271 .307 .400 .311 .298 12.1 84.0 31.0 5.1 2026 LHP 203 63 17.5 1.6 3.2% .280 .302 .407 .309 .375 17.3 83.4 32.0 6.0 Difference LHP -622 -202 4.3 -1.0 0.2% .009 -.005 .007 -.002 .077 5.2 -0.6 1.0 0.9 This comparison better contextualizes the situation. The expected metrics remain in a similar range, but BABIP has skyrocketed from a not very consistent .298 to a dangerous .375. Suárez has stopped striking hitters out and getting swings and misses at a concerning rate this year, while hitters have made a small jump in the quality of their contact. Run Value/100 pitches probably summarizes it better, taking each of those situations into account. In 2021, the season when the sinker looked like the best pitch in his arsenal, Suárez recorded 2.6 RV/100 with a .202 xBA allowed. Last year, it dropped to -0.3, and this year he is at -0.2, with a .312 xBA, the highest since 2020. That said, let’s look at the next part of the problem: where he throws his sinker and how the opposition is responding. Here we have the 2026 stretch (chart on the left) vs. 2023-2026 when he throws his sinker against left-handed hitters. I don’t think it is difficult to notice where Suárez is having problems: pitches located in the vertical middle part toward the inside of the strike zone. Hitters are destroying his sinker inside because of two key problems: he lost velocity and lateral movement, two characteristics that made it a more difficult pitch to decipher. In 2026, his sinker is averaging just 90.3 mph, and 89.9 since he returned from the injured list. On the other hand, he lost more than two inches of horizontal break toward the hitter’s hands, dropping from 16.0" between 2021-2023 to 13.8" this year, below average. Added to that loss of bite is greater induced vertical break (6.2" IVB), which takes away depth from the “sinking” action. The result of what might look like a slight loss in velocity and break is making a big difference in favor of the hitters, who are taking advantage of the sinker, which now stays in the strike zone for longer periods of time. Ranger Suárez’s next start will be against the Yankees, and it'll be fascinating to see if he tries to buck this recent trend. If he continues to take pressure off the sinker in key situations, he will have to find another way to compensate for it. For the Red Sox, the best news would be for his adjustments to begin giving him the necessary turn to bring back the best version of his arsenal. View full article