Red Sox Have "Aggressive" Offer On Table For Alex Bregman

[notin]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Why trade Duran when you could just trade half of Hicks's salary for a low level prospect? 

1. Trading Duran is far more likely to fill a need.

2. Trading Hicks figures to be far more difficult 

3. Trading Hicks could lead to a situation where they need to spend additional money to replace Hicks, cutting even further into any savings from his deal.

[Old Red]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Masa 2025

266 AVG - 8th on BOS (excluding Garcia/Sabol)

307 OBP - 13th

388 SLG - 13th 

696 OPS - 13th

302 wOBA - 13th

88 wRC+ - 13th

6.5% Barrels - 13th

44% HardHit - 13th

11.7% K - 1st

4.8% BB - 18th 

54.8% GB - 1st

22.6% FB - 19th

26.4 Sprint Speed - 15th

Even at his '23-'24 numbers, it's a stretch to keep him at DH. He was not worth it in '25. A slow LHB with no pop that leads the team in ground balls. There's just no real value there IMO. 

Certainly not worth $18M, and never was, but unfortunately gets paid that for the next 2 years.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

1. Trading Duran is far more likely to fill a need.

2. Trading Hicks figures to be far more difficult 

3. Trading Hicks could lead to a situation where they need to spend additional money to replace Hicks, cutting even further into any savings from his deal.

On 3, Hicks wasn't providing anything but a warm body. I don't think they need to spend to replace him. Does the rule 5 acquisition replace him? Couldn't pitch worse? 

On 2, if Duran was easy to trade, he'd be gone by now. It's been a few offseasons now with a backlog of OFers and no trades. 

 

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Just look at how last season ended - Anthony on the IL and Abreu just coming off it.  We would have been in rough shape without Duran.

We also saw what happened without a true #2.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Certainly not worth $18M, and never was, but unfortunately gets paid that for the next 2 years.

He gets paid no matter what. Can they replace him with an internal option that they are already paying (Campbell, Duran, other) and just DFA? Why not just cut your losses and help the roster? 

We've circled this drain over and over the past few years. 

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

I know Masa gets dumped on a lot, and he’s overpaid, and only useful as a DH, but he can hit some.

I find the 'dump Yoshi' talk a bit far afield.  The salary is a sunk cost, so that's irrelevant.  Past that, like you say, he's a good hitter.  I wouldn't trade Duran straight-up for Lodolo (close enough), but if the choice was Duran replacing Yoshi and the RS getting $6M salary relief, or the RS trading Duran for Lodolo+, and keeping Yoshi at DH, I'd go for the Lodolo+ package every time.

[drewski6]

20 minutes ago, notin said:

1. Trading Duran is far more likely to fill a need.

2. Trading Hicks figures to be far more difficult 

3. Trading Hicks could lead to a situation where they need to spend additional money to replace Hicks, cutting even further into any savings from his deal.

What role are you penciling Hicks into that you are worried would need to be replaced , haha?

[JoeBrady]

24 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Even at his '23-'24 numbers, it's a stretch to keep him at DH.

His 23-24 OPS was .775.  The league OPS was about .749.  It's not ideal, but I don't see why it's a stretch.

[JoeBrady]

23 minutes ago, notin said:

3. Trading Hicks could lead to a situation where they need to spend additional money

• I don't have much hope for Hicks.
• But the more important part is the amount of payroll relief we get.  Yates is getting $5M after posting a 5.23.  Thinking about it in reverse, if Hicks was available for $2M as a FA, he'd already be signed.  Weaver just signed a $22M/2 after almost being out of BB.  Every team in BB has at least one RP that has reverted to their historic numbers.  If we're only gaining $2M in relief, I'd let him come into ST to try to win a job.

[Old Red]

28 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He gets paid no matter what. Can they replace him with an internal option that they are already paying (Campbell, Duran, other) and just DFA? Why not just cut your losses and help the roster? 

We've circled this drain over and over the past few years. 

If it was 1 year left it would be easier to cut. The Red Sox did pay Atlanta $17M to get $10M relief on Sale, so we’ll see. I think right now the Red Sox are waiting to find out what happens with Bregman, and then go from there there, and if they have to trade for an IF.

[mvp 78]

36 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

His 23-24 OPS was .775.  The league OPS was about .749.  It's not ideal, but I don't see why it's a stretch.

For his '23-'24 DH split, his OPS ranks 17th, behind McCutchen, Turner, JD and too close to Daniel Vogelbach for my liking. Not too many guys below him are legitimate players going forward. If you add in '25, he falls to 34th. It's just not a good DH bat. 

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, Old Red said:

If it was 1 year left it would be easier to cut. The Red Sox did pay Atlanta $17M to get $10M relief on Sale, so we’ll see. I think right now the Red Sox are waiting to find out what happens with Bregman, and then go from there there, and if they have to trade for an IF.

What's the benefit of paying him 18M to have a 100 wRC+ ceiling and only be able to DH? Sox would be better off DFA'ing him. 

[Old Red]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

What's the benefit of paying him 18M to have a 100 wRC+ ceiling and only be able to DH? Sox would be better off DFA'ing him. 

Either way it’s up to to Brez, and JH.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Either way it’s up to to Brez, and JH.

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Why trade Duran when you could just trade half of Hicks's salary for a low level prospect? 

1. Easier said than done on trading Hicks and half his salary. (Same with Yoshida.)

2. We have 4 OF'ers and playing Duran at DH is not getting full value. (He's worth more to another team as an OF'er than to us as a DH.)

That's 2 big reasons why.

[moonslav59]

If BTV is a guide, these guys are likely worth this much:

$5M x 2 Yoshida ($10M value/ 2yrs - $36M salary= -$26M)

$2M x 2 Hicks ($4M value/ 2 yrs- $22M salary= -$18M)

To trade these guys for zero in return, w'ed have to include $26M for Masa and $18M for Hicks.

If we got two teams to do this, we'd save $7M x 2 and $7M off the tax line.

 

[drewski6]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If BTV is a guide, these guys are likely worth this much:

$5M x 2 Yoshida ($10M value/ 2yrs - $36M salary= -$26M)

$2M x 2 Hicks ($4M value/ 2 yrs- $22M salary= -$18M)

To trade these guys for zero in return, w'ed have to include $26M for Masa and $18M for Hicks.

If we got two teams to do this, we'd save $7M x 2 and $7M off the tax line.

 

I dont think the tax line matters as much as some think. Even the 10 draft pick spots isnt much cuz teams are drafting for signability and overslot vs underslot. Its not like baseketball or football where pick 10 vs pick 20 is huge.

[drewski6]

getting rid of your depth to not lose 10 draft spots doesnt feel like its worth the squeeze to me.  Id rather Masa be in AAA in case needed than trying to chop 5m off the tax line

And i do understand how it can be the difference between whetehr you can fit bregman under second tax line or having to fall back to a 2ish WAR third baseman.  But I honestly think if they want breg ,theyll just pay a little more tax.

[notin]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

On 3, Hicks wasn't providing anything but a warm body. I don't think they need to spend to replace him. Does the rule 5 acquisition replace him? Couldn't pitch worse? 

On 2, if Duran was easy to trade, he'd be gone by now. It's been a few offseasons now with a backlog of OFers and no trades. 

 

Really? Couldn’t pitch worse.

Hicks has had a decent career as a RP.  Last year he began as a starter, so maybe that affected his performance.  But bear in mind he only made 21 appearances for Boston, and gave up 1 ER or less in 17 of them. His sample size is relatively small and we’ve seen relievers bounce back before.  No one thought we’d miss Brad Keller either.

 

I didn’t say Duran was easier to trade.  I said trade Duran was more likely to fill a need.  What need can be better filled by trading Hicks?

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

Really? Couldn’t pitch worse.

Hicks has had a decent career as a RP.  Last year he began as a starter, so maybe that affected his performance.  But bear in mind he only made 21 appearances for Boston, and gave up 1 ER or less in 17 of them. His sample size is relatively small and we’ve seen relievers bounce back before.  No one thought we’d miss Brad Keller either…

Mark Melancon

[notin]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Mark Melancon

Exactly.

I don’t expect Hicks to bounce back like Melancon did, but I think he could still be a useful pen arm….

[moonslav59]

Hicks will get a look. I'm not expecting anything beyond a DFA.

[Duran Is The Man]

5 hours ago, drewski6 said:

What role are you penciling Hicks into that you are worried would need to be replaced , haha?

overpaid bench warmer.

[JoeBrady]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

What's the benefit of paying him 18M to have a 100 wRC+ ceiling

Moot point since he does not have a 100 wRC+ ceiling.

[JoeBrady]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

For his '23-'24 DH split, his OPS ranks 17th, behind McCutchen, Turner, JD and too close to Daniel Vogelbach for my liking. Not too many guys below him are legitimate players going forward. If you add in '25, he falls to 34th. It's just not a good DH bat. 

#56 among ALL hitters in wRC+ from 2023-24, at a minimum of 1000 PAs.

Just for fun, if we trade Duran for pitching, and you cut Yoshida, who would you replace him with?

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

#56 among ALL hitters in wRC+ from 2023-24, at a minimum of 1000 PAs.

Just for fun, if we trade Duran for pitching, and you cut Yoshida, who would you replace him with?

That's easy...

with the man without a position: Kristian Campbell.

Second choice: Casas.

Third choice: Romy/Narvaez when Wong or Contreras catch.

[moonslav59]

OPS+ since 2023

127 Contreras

123 Duran

119 Casas

118 Abreu

111 Yoshida

108 Romy (123 w BOS)

95 Story

89 Rafaela

[Bellhorn04]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Hicks will get a look. I'm not expecting anything beyond a DFA.

Bailey seems to be a pretty good pitching coach overall.  He gets one more shot to improve Hicks and the DFA would be lurking behind that.   

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Bailey seems to be a pretty good pitching coach overall.  He gets one more shot to improve Hicks and the DFA would be lurking behind that.   

Good point. He did have 3+ months with him, last year, though.

[Hugh2]

I'm placing my bets, Bregman will sign today with Boston for 5/$125