Red Sox Have "Aggressive" Offer On Table For Alex Bregman

[JoeBrady]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It might be a little complex, but I can't imagine not being able to work something out, whereby we get shut out of trading Duran.

Like I've always said, I am all about adding value.  I'd like a #2.  But if someone were to offer a 2B or 3B of similar value, I'd do that.  If no one wanted to do that, I'd trade for a prospect and buy a 2B or 3B.

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Is $115M/4 better to you?

No.  The extra year would only be $10M and the AAV would be lower.  I prefer to go slightly longer with a lower AAV at this point in time.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

No.  The extra year would only be $10M and the AAV would be lower.  I prefer to go slightly longer with a lower AAV at this point in time.

Me, too, but I was pushing Kimmi's button.

I could see a 4 year deal with an absurdly high buyout for year 5. 

Like $116M/4 with a $24M option and $14M buyout. Basically, $130M/4 or $140M/5

[Old Red]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Me, too, but I was pushing Kimmi's button.

I could see a 4 year deal with an absurdly high buyout for year 5. 

Like $116M/4 with a $24M option and $14M buyout. Basically, $130M/4 or $140M/5

I would give NO options, and NO buyouts. Make him a straight offer with a take it, or leave it. He’s a good player, and will help the club, but as I said last year he’s NO Mike Schmidt, or George Brett. Yes I know he got off to a hot start last year, but how did he end up, and now he’s a year older. If the reported offer is true, which is too long, but more than generous isn’t good enough than move on.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Old Red said:

I would give NO options, and NO buyouts. Make him a straight offer with a take it, or leave it. He’s a good player, and will help the club, but as I said last year he’s NO Mike Schmidt, or George Brett. Yes I know he got off to a hot start last year, but how did he end up, and now he’s a year older. If the reported offer is true, which is too long, but more than generous isn’t good enough than move on.

Coulda said the same about Bogey, but you said the opposite.

Do you still wish we offered and Bogey accepted a 6 year offer?

[mvp 78]

10 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I absolutely cannot see the FA pitching list without thinking to myself "Where's Beeks?  Where in the hell is Beeks?"  What the heck, he's a lefty RP, sign him.

Under 6'. Doesn't k guys anymore. BB's too many guys. Relies heavily on a 4 seamer. Doesn't seem like a Breslow guy at all. 

[Old Red]

58 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Coulda said the same about Bogey, but you said the opposite.

Do you still wish we offered and Bogey accepted a 6 year offer?

I did NOT say the same thing about Bogey. I said DD should have offered Bogey more money on the original 6 year contract with NO opt outs. Bogey’s contract would have been up after last year.

[drewski6]

What if we offered Bregman......THE EXACT SAME DEAL

3 yrs / 40m each, but deferred enough so it brings it down to like 32m in real money with an opt-out after each year.

He gets rewarded for opting out because he gets an extra year guaranteed (had he not opted out he would have had only 2 yrs remaining)

Im not sure he takes it, but I run it past him....Jokingly at first, but if I sense he's actually considering it, then I start the "way, maybe this isnt such a silly idea"

[drewski6]

The ole I was just joking, but was I? song + dance

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, Old Red said:

I did NOT say the same thing about Bogey. I said DD should have offered Bogey more money on the original 6 year contract with NO opt outs. Bogey’s contract would have been up after last year.

I said "coulda" not that you did. I actually said you said "the opposite." NOT the same.

You have always assumed there was a reasonable offer Bogy would have taken, earlier. We have no idea what he'd have agreed on as the minimum. I wouldn't be surprised if DD offered the most JH would allow. We were maybe lucky Bogey said yes.

"Offered more" is vague and easy to say. You also argued we "should have" offered more the year before he bolted. I agreed, but we don't know what his agents were asking for, not what he'd have accepted.

He bolted after 2022. Would you be happy, now had we offered (at the end of 2021) and he accepted an extension for $180M/6 that kicked in after 2022? (Note: he's had a 104 OPS+ since 2023.)

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, drewski6 said:

What if we offered Bregman......THE EXACT SAME DEAL

3 yrs / 40m each, but deferred enough so it brings it down to like 32m in real money with an opt-out after each year.

He gets rewarded for opting out because he gets an extra year guaranteed (had he not opted out he would have had only 2 yrs remaining)

Im not sure he takes it, but I run it past him....Jokingly at first, but if I sense he's actually considering it, then I start the "way, maybe this isnt such a silly idea"

I think adding an option year with a hefty buyout is like insurance to Breggie.

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

I think adding an option year with a hefty buyout is like insurance to Breggie.

Sure but after what year is the option year?

After yr 5? Sure.  After yr 4? Maybe but the AAV will have to be high.  After yr 3? I dont see him taking a 3 yr deal with a team option for yr 4, regardless of AAV or buyout, but I could be wrong.

Id offer it , for sure.

3 @ 40 , with enough deferred to make the CBT hit low 30s, opt-out after each year, 4th yr team option at 30m with a 12.5m buyout

That would be 132.5 guaranteed but after accounting for deferrals like 112.5 in guaranteed.

I know I proposed the 3 yr deal originally, but I was half serious.  I dont think any of these get it done.

I dont think Bregman sees Schwarb and Alonso pocket 150m guaranteed and settles for less. I think its going to be 5 around 165 (maybe even 6, 190) with significant amount deferred and full no -trade.

If youd rather do 4+ team option with large buyout, I think you still need to get above 150m guaranteed.

So maybe 4 @35 , but with a team option for yr 5 @ 35 but with a 15m buyout (155m guaranteed), full no trade.  Its an offer, Id even call it aggressive.  Its not one I jump at if Im him though. Not saying I dont come around and take it, but its not an "OMG, got my bag! LETS GO!"

Its a good offer, though.

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Sure but after what year is the option year?
 

I gave some examples.

MY point is that if one year is what's holding things up, then cut back $10M from the deal but add an option year with a $15-20M buyout and the same AAV for that year. If it's not enough, well we tried sweetening the pot a little without committing that "extra year."

Get creative.

Give massive deferrals.

Whatever.

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I gave some examples.

MY point is that if one year is what's holding things up, then cut back $10M from the deal but add an option year with a $15-20M buyout and the same AAV for that year. If it's not enough, well we tried sweetening the pot a little without committing that "extra year."

Get creative.

Give massive deferrals.

Whatever.

No buyout, and no option years. That’s why we’re going through this right now on if he’s coming back, or not. Make him a straight up offer, which supposedly they have done, and if he doesn’t want it then move on.

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I gave some examples.

MY point is that if one year is what's holding things up, then cut back $10M from the deal but add an option year with a $15-20M buyout and the same AAV for that year. If it's not enough, well we tried sweetening the pot a little without committing that "extra year."

Get creative.

Give massive deferrals.

Whatever.

Sure. Agreed. Get creative, use deferrals.  Use option years and buyouts and all those other things that facilitate compromise. Offer to buy his house if you have to (like they did with schilling).

I think that your idea of adding the option year with a buyout is a good one, but I think your offer is too low.

Going by your numbers:
$116M/4 with a $24M option and $14M buyout. Basically, $130M/4

I dont think that gets it done.  But if we move the option until after year 5 (giving him one extra year)

$140/4 with a $25m option and a $15m buyout (basically 155/5)...That MAY get it done.

[moonslav59]

Just now, Old Red said:

No buyout, and no option years. That’s why we’re going through this right now on if he’s coming back, or not. Make him a straight up offer, which supposedly they have done, and if he doesn’t want it then move on.

I would not mind going through this again in 3 years- after having Breggie for 3 more years. That's the point: getting him to sign.

I'm not for optouts, either, but if it got him to sign, I'd do that, too. We could really use Breggie in 2026.

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, Old Red said:

No buyout, and no option years. That’s why we’re going through this right now on if he’s coming back, or not. Make him a straight up offer, which supposedly they have done, and if he doesn’t want it then move on.

says you, some of us want the player more than we want contract simplicity

[moonslav59]

Just now, drewski6 said:

Sure. Agreed. Get creative, use deferrals.  Use option years and buyouts and all those other things that facilitate compromise. Offer to buy his house if you have to (like they did with schilling).

I think that your idea of adding the option year with a buyout is a good one, but I think your offer is too low.

Going by your numbers:
$116M/4 with a $24M option and $14M buyout. Basically, $130M/4

I dont think that gets it done.  But if we move the option until after year 5 (giving him one extra year)

$140/4 with a $25m option and a $15m buyout (basically 155/5)...That MAY get it done.

I'd apply the same type of offer to a 5 year deal with a 6th year option, of go higher on the 4 year deal.

To me, $130M/4 is already too much. If rather we sign Suarez to $70M/3 and make a trade for a SP#2, which would keep us far below the top tax line.

Apply the theory to this offer I would not make:

$128M/4 with a $24M option for year 5 and an $8M buyout. That's $34M x 4 or $30M x 5.

If the Sox are offering 5 years, and he's says no, then try adding a 6th year option year.

The plus, is we can say no. He'd be essentially be getting more for the shorter years, but we'd have a way to save some money by saying no.

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

says you, some of us want the player more than we want contract simplicity

But I don’t believe at any cost.

 

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I would not mind going through this again in 3 years- after having Breggie for 3 more years. That's the point: getting him to sign.

I'm not for optouts, either, but if it got him to sign, I'd do that, too. We could really use Breggie in 2026.

I understand he would help, but I think some, and I’m not saying you are fixated more on his hot start last year, and not how he eventually finished up the season injury, and all, and now he’s a year older. 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Old Red said:

But I don’t believe at any cost.

He's a good, not great player. 

Many people thought his power numbers would skyrocket hitting at Fenway in 2025 when they daydreamed about him in a Sox jersey. They didn't. His home splits were terrible. 

Honestly, the same thing would happen if they brought Bo here in 2025. He might put up good away numbers, but the Fenway numbers would be bleak. 

[drewski6]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd apply the same type of offer to a 5 year deal with a 6th year option, of go higher on the 4 year deal.

To me, $130M/4 is already too much. If rather we sign Suarez to $70M/3 and make a trade for a SP#2, which would keep us far below the top tax line.

Apply the theory to this offer I would not make:

$128M/4 with a $24M option for year 5 and an $8M buyout. That's $34M x 4 or $30M x 5.

If the Sox are offering 5 years, and he's says no, then try adding a 6th year option year.

The plus, is we can say no. He'd be essentially be getting more for the shorter years, but we'd have a way to save some money by saying no.

Like MVP said, this is likely his final contract so I think the real metric hes chasing isnt yrs or AAV, I think its total guaranteed.

If 130m for Breg is too much for you after Alonso and Schwarber each got 150m, then breg is too far out of your price range to close the gap with deferrals and option years.

I think using deferral and option years (with buyouts) is smart, but the number you have to get over (IMO) is 150, not 130. Hes not taking less than Schwarber and Alonso both.

Do not give credit for the team option, only the buyout.  Your offer 128/4 with an 8m buyout for yr 5 is 136m guaranteed.  Just let him cross 150, he deserves to not get punk'd by ALonso and Schwarber. Let him be (gasp) above them, and find a way to add 20 more dollars , so its 156m guaranteed over 5 with 8-12m of that being in teh buyout.

[drewski6]

7 minutes ago, Old Red said:

But I don’t believe at any cost.

 

I didnt say sign Bregman at any cost. I said that we shouldnt be dead-set against a creative contract with buyouts or optouts or some of that kind of stuff.

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He's a good, not great player. 

Many people thought his power numbers would skyrocket hitting at Fenway in 2025 when they daydreamed about him in a Sox jersey. They didn't. His home splits were terrible. 

Honestly, the same thing would happen if they brought Bo here in 2025. He might put up good away numbers, but the Fenway numbers would be bleak. 

What is Alonso? What is Schwarber?

Is Bregman better than Alonso? Is he better than Schwarber? Does he deserve less than what they've secured? 

TO me, in a world where ALonso and Schwarber are both worth 150m, Bregman is worth slightly more than 150m because over the next 5 yrs, hes prob slightly more WAR than Alonso and slightly more WAR than Schwarber

[drewski6]

If someone calls you a horse, you punch them in the face.

If a second person calls you a horse, you face facts and buy yourself a saddle

If it was just one player in the Alsonso/Schwarber/Bregman tier getting 150m, then we could scream overpay. But the second one gets it , kinda locks it in. Thats the market for that tier.

Tier 1: Tucker
Tier 1.5: Bichette
Tier 2: Alonso, Schwarber, Bregman

And I think Bregman is slightly above that tier. I honestly thikn its:
 

T1:Tucker
T1.5:Bichette
T1.75: Breg
T2:Alonso,Schwarber

[drewski6]

My walk pt on Bregman is 180m, but id go even above that if there are signficant deferrals.

[Old Red]

39 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

What is Alonso? What is Schwarber?

Is Bregman better than Alonso? Is he better than Schwarber? Does he deserve less than what they've secured? 

TO me, in a world where ALonso and Schwarber are both worth 150m, Bregman is worth slightly more than 150m because over the next 5 yrs, hes prob slightly more WAR than Alonso and slightly more WAR than Schwarber

Alonso was worth $85M to Boston, but $155M to Baltimore. Flintstone was worth $150M to Philly, but the Red Sox didn’t even put in an offer , so just, because those players got that much money from other teams doesn’t mean Bregman should get that much from the Red Sox especially when JH has the checkbook. Most likely both Alonso, and Flintstone will hit more HR, and have more RBI then Bregman the next five years. No doubt Bregman plays a good D, so it all depends on what you want, and what you want to pay.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Alonso was worth $85M to Boston, but $155M to Baltimore. Flintstone was worth $150M to Philly, but the Red Sox didn’t even put in an offer , so just, because those players got that much money from other teams doesn’t mean Bregman should get that much from the Red Sox especially when JH has the checkbook. Most likely both Alonso, and Flintstone will hit more HR, and have more RBI then Bregman the next five years. No doubt Bregman plays a good D, so it all depends on what you want, and what you want to pay.

Breggie is a good clubhouse guy. He's like another coach on the field. See how he is on the bench with Roman showing him an ipad with Brawl Starts on it? 

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure how much the "great clubhouse" value is worth.

I'd like to have Bregman back, but he's not a great player and has not had a great season for a long time. I don't see him or Bichette as "the one" we should break the mold for.

We need a big bat, and both may not or barely meet what I consider a big bat requirements. We are running out of options and have already traded away a few younger players and prospects to get Gray, Contreras and Oviedo.

We are nearing a point where we'll be cornering ourselves and coming out short-handed, again. I'm not sure what the best plan is. If we overpay, the guy usually sucks and we bitch about wasting money on the wrong guy. If we don't outbid anybody, we bitch about being cheap and broken promises.

[drewski6]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not sure how much the "great clubhouse" value is worth.

I'd like to have Bregman back, but he's not a great player and has not had a great season for a long time. I don't see him or Bichette as "the one" we should break the mold for.

We need a big bat, and both may not or barely meet what I consider a big bat requirements. We are running out of options and have already traded away a few younger players and prospects to get Gray, Contreras and Oviedo.

We are nearing a point where we'll be cornering ourselves and coming out short-handed, again. I'm not sure what the best plan is. If we overpay, the guy usually sucks and we bitch about wasting money on the wrong guy. If we don't outbid anybody, we bitch about being cheap and broken promises.

Bregman may not be an elite player, but hes a tier 2 free-agent looking for tier 2 free agent money. Hes not asking for Soto , Ohtani, Tucker money. Even Cease got 7/210.

IF a T2 FA is too rich for us, then we are just not serious.

[drewski6]

30 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Alonso was worth $85M to Boston, but $155M to Baltimore. Flintstone was worth $150M to Philly, but the Red Sox didn’t even put in an offer , so just, because those players got that much money from other teams doesn’t mean Bregman should get that much from the Red Sox especially when JH has the checkbook. Most likely both Alonso, and Flintstone will hit more HR, and have more RBI then Bregman the next five years. No doubt Bregman plays a good D, so it all depends on what you want, and what you want to pay.

Its a fair point that market value and value to team do not always align.  But I dont think that Schwarber and Alonso are so far ahead of Bregman that they're contracts are unfair to use as comparables.  Thats kind of negotiations work.

If you try to get Bregman for less than 150m, his agent WILL bring up the alonso and schwarber contracts. Bregmans market value is around 150m. If you want him for significantly less, you are just going to have to wait that his market collapses and you get lucky and he comes to you with his tail between his legs because he has 0 offers on the table.

Sounds like wishful thinking to me and its more likely to me that either 1) we cross 150m guaranteed and land Bregman or 2) we dont land bregman.

The market is the market.  And the people who are calling the offer "aggressive" we've heard this and it has been confirmed, know what the market is. And thats 150m.

The red sox most likely have a contract offer on the table for bregman around 150-200m. The cubs and Dbacks may also have given him an offer for around these amounts.

Its possible he overplays his hand, and it all collapses around him and he has to take an insulting contract, but its so very unlikely.

Bregman was the #3 ranked FA behind only Tucker Bo. If he winds up as the #9 highest paid FA, thats a slap in the face.