Predicting LT payroll

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

I would agree Breslow in particular isnt wild about Yoshida.  But not wanting a full time DH in general wouldn’t be smart…

There's the idea that it's better to rotate guys through DH to give everyone a rest. You really need to have the right lineup for the that to work though. I'd rather have a big hitter taking up that spot 150 games a year. 

David Ortiz

JD Martinez

Canseco

Baylor

Cooper

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

I think most of those guys are the depth.

I get the impression Breslow isnt wild about Yoshida, but Yoshida did hit well down the stretch and in the postseason.  Casas is the higher ceiling hitter, but not sure when he comes back.  But when he does, DH is his best position, especially if Yoshida hasn’t run away with it. 
 

I doubt they trade away enough outfielders to get Campbell a starting job. Hes likely Worcester-bound for April if he isn’t traded himself.

Mayer is a starter.  Either at 2b or 3b (although SS really makes the most sense). His role depends on what the Sox acquisitions are.

Romy is a specialty role player.  Dont let my “Hes a better option than Arenado” viewpoint convince you I think Romy should start.  My point was - Arenado shouldn’t, and argued he was a worse option than the Sox have on the bench.  Romy likely settles in platooning with Mayer or Casas/Yoshida.  (Although the reality is Casas shouldn’t be platooned.  But, you know, Cora.)

Fair, my point was about not letting these depth options prevent us from going after talent whether that be trade or free agency. I like having talent in the minors whom we can call up when we need. So I would see no reason to rush Casas out, even though we all want to see a FA signed.  Guys get hurt and I agree, he could enter the fold at DH if its unsettled when Casas returns.

[notin]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

There's the idea that it's better to rotate guys through DH to give everyone a rest. You really need to have the right lineup for the that to work though. I'd rather have a big hitter taking up that spot 150 games a year. 

David Ortiz

JD Martinez

Canseco

Baylor

Cooper

I think that using the DH as a resting spot is more of a fan thing than a team thing, since no teams really do it and it is impractical in theory.  Largely because fans don’t want to go to games and see, say, Roman Anthony replaced by Nate Eaton while Yoshida DHs.  But I think that those “starter rest” days are more about keeping bench players active than actually resting starters…

[notin]

6 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Fair, my point was about not letting these depth options prevent us from going after talent whether that be trade or free agency. I like having talent in the minors whom we can call up when we need. So I would see no reason to rush Casas out, even though we all want to see a FA signed.  Guys get hurt and I agree, he could enter the fold at DH if its unsettled when Casas returns.

I just don’t think DH is where they will be adding. They already have Casas and Yoshida, with varying degrees of offensive talent while both being defensive voids. Campbell’s also sort of fits that mold.

I see them adding 1b and either 2b or 3b.  And SP.  And if the three names they add are Alonso, Marte and Lodolo, thats probably the best possible combo in my opinion.  I’m not yet sold that Skubal and Greene are realistic targets.  And I don’t think Schwarber is enough of one to be top bidder…

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

I think that using the DH as a resting spot is more of a fan thing than a team thing, since no teams really do it and it is impractical in theory.  Largely because fans don’t want to go to games and see, say, Roman Anthony replaced by Nate Eaton while Yoshida DHs.  But I think that those “starter rest” days are more about keeping bench players active than actually resting starters…

Tampa did it in '19, '22 and '24. They have had a lot of those UTIL type guys who play multiple positions. They would also rather NOT pay for a DH if they didn't have to. 

Because of the Chaim connection, people thought the Sox would kinda go that way at some point, but the Masa move took that off the table. 

[notin]

28 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Tampa did it in '19, '22 and '24. They have had a lot of those UTIL type guys who play multiple positions. They would also rather NOT pay for a DH if they didn't have to. 

Because of the Chaim connection, people thought the Sox would kinda go that way at some point, but the Masa move took that off the table. 

Fair enough.  But with Tampa, it’s a safe bet finances were influential.  The Sox have no such concerns…

[moonslav59]

7 hours ago, notin said:

If Ryan isn’t an improvement (and he certainly isn't stairs quo), why is Boston wasting time with him?

Ryan might be an improvement over the 2025 Gio, but not big enough to get us to top competitive status.

Bregman may not improve on the 2025 Bregman, even if he stays healthy all year.

I'd be happy with Ryan, and I'd much rather have Ryan for 2026 than re-signing Gio, but how much better can he be than 2025 Gio? 

[notin]

31 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Ryan might be an improvement over the 2025 Gio, but not big enough to get us to top competitive status.

Bregman may not improve on the 2025 Bregman, even if he stays healthy all year.

I'd be happy with Ryan, and I'd much rather have Ryan for 2026 than re-signing Gio, but how much better can he be than 2025 Gio? 

Well, he was 2.4 bWAR better last year…

[Old Red]

35 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Ryan might be an improvement over the 2025 Gio, but not big enough to get us to top competitive status.

Bregman may not improve on the 2025 Bregman, even if he stays healthy all year.

I'd be happy with Ryan, and I'd much rather have Ryan for 2026 than re-signing Gio, but how much better can he be than 2025 Gio? 

Agree 100%, and how will Cro Man do after the workload he had this past year for the first time.

[JoeBrady]

On 11/10/2025 at 9:28 AM, moonslav59 said:

Maybe I'm missing the payments being made to ex Sox players, but I added it all up, and it looked like $42-46M under line 1. Who am I missing?

Cots has them as $47.3, and they are very accurate.  Your numbers are probably the same with some rounding or bonus payments.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

There's the idea that it's better to rotate guys through DH to give everyone a rest. You really need to have the right lineup for the that to work though. I'd rather have a big hitter taking up that spot 150 games a year. 

David Ortiz

JD Martinez

Canseco

Baylor

Cooper

Kyle Schwarber's three months in Boston: 10 home runs (including postseason)... and his four years since in Philly: 201 HRs...

... but with only 11.1 WAR.

Cecil Cooper had 5.3 WAR in parts of six seasons with the Red Sox -- and then 30.7 WAR after his trade to Milwaukee (George "Boomer" Scott, the guy he was dealt for, played 3 more years in Boston and had 2 WAR).

...

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Well, he was 2.4 bWAR better last year…

True, and they both dropped off near the end.

Do you think bringing Bregman back and replacing Gio with Ryan, with not other significant additions is enough to jump us up a level?

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Old Red said:

Agree 100%, and how will Cro Man do after the workload he had this past year for the first time.

Not to mention Bello's 2026 vs 2025. He was a clear second in SP'er IP (162) and had a 3.34 ERA.

True, replacing Buehler should be easy (110 IP and 5.40 ERA) as well as Houck (8.04 in 44 IP.) Those two started 31 games. Replacing them with more from Early (2.33) Harrison (4.00) Dobbins (4.25) Crawford (n/a) and Sandoval (n/a) could be the boost we need, but we all know someone else will get hurt.

We also lose some other spot starters like May (5.68) Newcomb (4.43) and maybe less from Fitts (4.83) as a SP'er, but every year I point out all the "additions by subtractions" it never works out that way.

The only way I'm okay with adding just one SP'er is if it is a solid #1/2 type like Ryan, Lodolo or better, AND we add 2 big bats. (One bat can be a sideways move like keeping Bregman or signing Bichette instead.)

I like out SP'er depth and am confident we can find 3 capable rotation guys for the 3-5 slots from:

Sandoval, Crawford, Dobbins, Fitts & Harrison

Early, Tolle & Perales

Emergency depth: Criswell, Uberstine, Drohan or a jump from AA by Clarke, Holobetz, Rivera, Paez or Wehunt/Rogers.

[Old Red]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

True, and they both dropped off near the end.

Do you think bringing Bregman back and replacing Gio with Ryan, with not other significant additions is enough to jump us up a level?

Don’t look too much into Ryan dropping off last year. Minnesota was a sinking ship. Being with a team in a pennant race like the Red Sox, and it might have been a different story. Bregman might of dropped off at the end, but he got off to a fast start, so he just ended up somewhere near where he should have at the end. Don’t put so much into his start, and the same for the finish. End result is what matters. He’s not a 300 hitter.

[moonslav59]

Just now, Old Red said:

Don’t look too much into Ryan dropping off last year. Minnesota was a sinking ship. Being with a team in a pennant race like the Red Sox, and it might have been a different story. Bregman might of dropped off at the end, but he got off to a fast start, so he just ended up somewhere near where he should have at the end. Don’t put so much into his start, and the same for the finish. End result is what matters. He’s not a 300 hitter.

I'm not expecting Bregman to have even the same numbers at 2025. His prior 3-4 year trend means more to me, and it scares me. That was one reason I was fine with the short but high AAV deal given him, and was not upset when he opted out.

I'd love to get Ryan and think he is likely to get better. I just raised the point about his end of season decline, because others seem to be worried about it. I'm a little concerned but want to get him.

I was concerned about Crochet, too, but was 100% for getting him.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

28 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

True, and they both dropped off near the end.

Do you think bringing Bregman back and replacing Gio with Ryan, with not other significant additions is enough to jump us up a level?

Not a bit. I like Ryan better than Gio, and expect improvement from either some young guys or injured guys, but also expect some regression from overworked players -- especially our All-Star pitchers (Crochet and Chapman will still be good, but don't be surprised if one ends up on the IL for at least a breather).

No, for the Red Sox to significantly improve their status, the front office has to bring in multiple reinforcements. Especially, if we want to go deeper into October... 

[Old Red]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not expecting Bregman to have even the same numbers at 2025. His prior 3-4 year trend means more to me, and it scares me. That was one reason I was fine with the short but high AAV deal given him, and was not upset when he opted out.

I'd love to get Ryan and think he is likely to get better. I just raised the point about his end of season decline, because others seem to be worried about it. I'm a little concerned but want to get him.

I was concerned about Crochet, too, but was 100% for getting him.

Like I’ve said before that the length of Bregman’s first contract with the Red Sox was the right length to me, and anything longer would be really stretching things.

[moonslav59]

Just now, Old Red said:

Like I’ve said before that the length of Bregman’s first contract with the Red Sox was the right length to me, and anything longer would be really stretching things.

To replace him will likely take a longer deal, and it won't be cheap, either.

When you factor in already needing a big bat to replace Devers, I'm not sure JH will approve of two big deals.

That's one reason I have suggested a trade for K Marte, but who knows if it's even possible or what they'd demand.

[UtahSox]

6 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

To replace him will likely take a longer deal, and it won't be cheap, either.

When you factor in already needing a big bat to replace Devers, I'm not sure JH will approve of two big deals.

That's one reason I have suggested a trade for K Marte, but who knows if it's even possible or what they'd demand.

Love the idea of Marte at 2b, with Alonso at 1b and letting Bregman walk.
 

Devils advocate On the AB contract…., I saw somewhere they are projecting Bregman at 5 yr 150m.. If we’re ok with AB2 coming back on current deal at 2yr 80, then getting AB2 for the next 3 for 70m is palatable. Also this is the whole point of upgrading our farm system, so you can take chances on longer term deals and if they fall on face on tail end you have a cheap Arb player to pick up production. 
 

[Hitch]

17 hours ago, notin said:

It shows the team is cheap and reluctant to pay what is client is worth.  We’ve seen this before.  We have all heard stories about blatantly cheap extension offers given to Bogaerts and Lester and assumed them to be true.  But we really don’t know what the offers were.  I am not sure what restrictions if any teams have about countering these stories, but does any benefit arise from that potential media war? The benefit is easy to see for the agent - the fans always gravitate to his side?  How often have you seen comments about the cheapness of ownership as opposed to the greed of players.  But fans don’t cheer for owners, so we don’t want to see the players as greedy.  Even as recently as last year, stories around the internet pervaded about Devers’ trade being done so Liverpool could afford Florian Wirtz, despite the numbers making no sense.  (Liverpool FC is worth more than the Sox and Wirtz’ contract pales compared to Devers’.) But people wanted to believe Henry was making the Sox worse for his own other businesses they don’t care about.   Why? Because it’s easy to vilify owners   And when Skubal’s leaves, no one in Detroit will say it’s because of his demands and every story will be about cheap ownership caring more about bottom lines than the product on the field…
 

 

 

I mean, has there been a single report to counteract the claim that we lowballed Bogaerts and Lester in particular? I've never seen one, and I believe it is now roundly accepted as fact.  A GM or team can rubbish reports, it happens all the time, and they can certainly set the record straight after the conflict has been removed - the player has moved on for instance.

I understand your point about ownership being vilified and I've found myself arguing quite a bit the past week that it is getting to almost absurd terms when it comes to Henry, but they are all businessmen too, and looking to strike the best possible deal. No MLB owner is going to go in with an acceptable offer straight off the bat, or they've gone in too high. That can mean some absurd offers of course, and if this report is true the Tigers offer was an absurd one.

And here's the thing, if as an agent you're going to lie (which they all do of course), why on earth would you pick the figure $320m apart? That's huge and quite specific. And it really does the agent no good if he's lying to that level when trying to get his client extended. Especially as they can just come out and say - yeah that report is a nonsense. And even more so because it will make the journalist look a fool, and so the pressure will return on the agent as the journalist could defend it by saying sources close to the player told me this. 

Owners lie, agents lie, players lie, the media lies. We all know this, so I don't completely disagree with you, but that number was so big and so specific that it makes me think this is likely quite close to the truth. 

[Hitch]

17 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I'd be surprised if they didn't add at 3b AND 1b. It may not be Breggie AND Alonso, but I think they can't run Romy out there at 1b going forward. 

Absolutely agree. And then they've improved, otherwise we've stood still.

I am slowly giving up on the idea of two big bats, however. Most reports don't seem to indicate much chance of it. More likely Alonso and a second tier player.

[Hitch]

7 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Not a bit. I like Ryan better than Gio, and expect improvement from either some young guys or injured guys, but also expect some regression from overworked players -- especially our All-Star pitchers (Crochet and Chapman will still be good, but don't be surprised if one ends up on the IL for at least a breather).

No, for the Red Sox to significantly improve their status, the front office has to bring in multiple reinforcements. Especially, if we want to go deeper into October... 

Thank God someone else is seeing it this way. I was beginning to question my sanity. 

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, UtahSox said:

Love the idea of Marte at 2b, with Alonso at 1b and letting Bregman walk.
 

Devils advocate On the AB contract…., I saw somewhere they are projecting Bregman at 5 yr 150m.. If we’re ok with AB2 coming back on current deal at 2yr 80, then getting AB2 for the next 3 for 70m is palatable. Also this is the whole point of upgrading our farm system, so you can take chances on longer term deals and if they fall on face on tail end you have a cheap Arb player to pick up production. 
 

Alonso with Marte (and a Ryan type) would be my ideal winter. Bregman or Bo would be great, too, but I don't see it as likely with Alonso.

[Hugh2]

The voting is at 50/50 with ONE day left to go!

[mvp 78]

16 hours ago, notin said:

Fair enough.  But with Tampa, it’s a safe bet finances were influential.  The Sox have no such concerns…

The Sox SHOULDN'T have those concerns. Somehow they do and we talk about it all the time.

 

[mvp 78]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Ryan might be an improvement over the 2025 Gio, but not big enough to get us to top competitive status.

Bregman may not improve on the 2025 Bregman, even if he stays healthy all year.

I'd be happy with Ryan, and I'd much rather have Ryan for 2026 than re-signing Gio, but how much better can he be than 2025 Gio? 

2025:

Ryan - 171 IP, 10.21 K/9, 2.05 bb/9, 3.42 ERA, 3.70 xFIP, 3.1 fWAR

Giolito - 145 IP, 7.51 K/9, 3.48 bb/9, 3.41 ERA, 4.59 xFIP, 2.0 fWAR

Bello - 166.2 IP, 6.70 K/9, 3.19 bb/9, 3.35 ERA, 4.39 xFIP, 1.9 fWAR

If you think Bello is a 3, then Giolito is a 3. Ryan is better than Giolito by almost every metric (k rate, bb rate, whatever). 

[mvp 78]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

True, and they both dropped off near the end.

Do you think bringing Bregman back and replacing Gio with Ryan, with not other significant additions is enough to jump us up a level?

Keeps the Sox in playoff contention, but nothing more. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

2025:

Ryan - 171 IP, 10.21 K/9, 2.05 bb/9, 3.42 ERA, 3.70 xFIP, 3.1 fWAR

Giolito - 145 IP, 7.51 K/9, 3.48 bb/9, 3.41 ERA, 4.59 xFIP, 2.0 fWAR

Bello - 166.2 IP, 6.70 K/9, 3.19 bb/9, 3.35 ERA, 4.39 xFIP, 1.9 fWAR

If you think Bello is a 3, then Giolito is a 3. Ryan is better than Giolito by almost every metric (k rate, bb rate, whatever). 

Where did I say Ryan is not better and doesn't rate to be better in 2026?

I said he may not do all that much better than Gio's 2025 numbers and that it would not be a big enough improvement to jump us up a level, unless we also jump up our offense.

Ryan was better in 2025 and should be way better in 2026. Nobody has suggested we trade for RYan more than I have.

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

The Sox SHOULDN'T have those concerns. Somehow they do and we talk about it all the time.

 

How about “the Sox don’t have Tampa-level financial concerns?”

[notin]

6 hours ago, Hitch said:

Alonso with Marte (and a Ryan type) would be my ideal winter. Bregman or Bo would be great, too, but I don't see it as likely with Alonso.

Bregman and Bichette feels odd.  I mean, who plays 1b and where does Mayer play?