Predicting LT payroll

[moonslav59]

Just now, Hugh2 said:

Tyson Lewis has tremendous upside, they get him with Duran.  That's a haul. 

I'm ignorant of prospect values on other teams.

I trust you know better.

I'd still do this trade, even with Gray onboard. Bello would be our #4!

1. Crochet

2. Gray

3. Lodolo

4. Bello

5. Sandoval, Crawford, Dobbins, Harrison, Early, Tolle, Perales

A switch hitting power bat that finally fixes our decade long hole at 2B.

Do it!

Add Alonso and I'm on cloud 9.

[Hugh2]

24 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They aren't paying for Alonso, Marte, Ryan and Okamoto. 

That's adding $48-49 million which puts them below the second LT level.  And heck, if they could pay to dumb Yoshida they could hypothetically still go below the first level. 

This is in line with last years spending. 

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

That's adding $48-49 million which puts them below the second LT level.  And heck, if they could pay to dumb Yoshida they could hypothetically still go below the first level. 

This is in line with last years spending. 

With the $20M included on the $41M/1 deal for Gray, that takes $21M from the winter spending budget.

[mvp 78]

32 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Ryan is not financially expensive. KMarte's AAV is $19,4M.

Question: do the Sox have KMarte's $19.4 AAV counted going forward, or did they change the rules to make it adjusted to remaining AAV on his deal?

If they trade for Ryan, they'd also be giving him an extension. I don't think they'd let him get to next season without it. 

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

If they trade for Ryan, they'd also be giving him an extension. I don't think they'd let him get to next season without it. 

Is the rule still that if you wait until the season starts, the extension does not count on the lux tax, that year?

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Is the rule still that if you wait until the season starts, the extension does not count on the lux tax, that year?

Not sure it has anything to do with when it is signed. Raffy had his signed prior to ST of '23 and it didn't take effect until '24. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Not sure it has anything to do with when it is signed. Raffy had his signed prior to ST of '23 and it didn't take effect until '24. 

es, there is that route, too, but I recall they held off the AGon extention, until early April to avoid the tax.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

es, there is that route, too, but I recall they held off the AGon extention, until early April to avoid the tax.

Maybe the rule changed? IDK. I don't remember the details of the AGon extension. 

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Maybe the rule changed? IDK. I don't remember the details of the AGon extension. 

Found this by google...

The agreement was reached on April 15, 2011, and was formally announced shortly after. The timing was partly to avoid a higher luxury tax for the current season, as the new average annual value would not apply for 2011.

[moonslav59]

Spotrac has the Sox Payroll at $148M (9th ranked.) The have our average age at 29.3, which is lower than any top 15 spending team.

cots figures in player benefits and arb estimates has us at $217M, which is $27M under the first line and $47M under line two.

Assuming Brez can spend $30-45M up to opening day, how do we add two big bats on that?

I've mentioned this a couple dozen times, so pardon the repetition, but trading Duran ($7.7M) and Campbell ($7.5M) for K Marte ($19.4M) only adds about $4M to the tax line. That would leave $25-40M to spend on a megasigning like Alonso or Schwarber, but more likely Bregman or Bichette. 

I suppose we could keep Duran and Campbell and trade Mayer as the centerpiece, and make them take Hicks to cut costs, and KMarte would add $7M. Then maybe we sign Alonso and Polanco, but that gets us close to line two, and we have Polanco at 3B and probably Duran at DH. Hmmm...

[Hitch]

We're going over that first line. Considerably, I'd imagine.

[Hugh2]

8 minutes ago, Hitch said:

We're going over that first line. Considerably, I'd imagine.

Yup, looks like the above side is going to win.  

Next year, I think I might have to set the over/under a little higher, I think some number closer to below the 2nd threshold instead of right above the first one might be more interesting. 

Although having a pretty 50/50 split might mean I picked a decent over/under line.  Obviously my thinking was completely arbitrary on that but we had a pretty split vote. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Hitch said:

We're going over that first line. Considerably, I'd imagine.

It feels like that is a given, but with these guys, we never know.

We did just spend more money on a SP'er than many felt we would, but that could just mean less for batters.

[moonslav59]

Pie in the sky, getting Bregman or Bichette plus Alonso will be near $60-70M AAV. I think that puts us over the second line, unless we shed salary.

Masa (18) and Hicks (12) are the fan faves to dump, but at best we would only dump a small fraction or either one. More likely, we could trade an OF'er (Duran at 7.7 or KC at 7.5 or maybe Rafaela at 6.3.) That may be enough to sneak us under line 2.

More likely, if we do sign a big bat, it will be trade for 1 and sign one, with the trade not adding a bunch of cost.

[Hitch]

For me you have to try and move Campbell.  He just doesn't have a position and too may question marks. It feels likely we trade Duran, too. That's $15m plus coming off the books. Two big bats and bull pen help starts to look possible then. 

I wonder if Bloom (or another rebuilding team) would take the hit on Yoshida for 2 years for the 7 years (plus 2 club options) of Campbell at £7.5m on the LT.  It would clear $27.5m per year and frees up the DH position. Would be very helpful around now.

My guess is we might need to add another which is probably too much then.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If the Red Sox trade Kristian Campbell then he can finally get the chance to start in the All-Star Game at shortstop.

Please note: starters are still selected from majority vote... but as anonymous posters in our own isolated offices of democracy, one vote is unanimous.

[moonslav59]

I have been under the impression that a team's draft choice drops 10 slots, if it goes over the tax by $20M. It is actually the $40M line- not the $40M.

I'm not sure that is enough to get JH to spend $39M over the line, but if he does, then we are at a winter limit of $60M. That is close enough to get 2 big FAs or maybe 3, if we trade away some salary or trade for cheaper players.

I think BTV would call Duran & Campbell a gross overpay for Ket Marte, but the tax hit on a trade like that would be just about $4.5M. (Better than that if Duran gets arb raises in the next 2 seasons after 2026.)

Maybe we trade away more of our younger players, and teams are dying for decent pitchers: we have 12+ SP'ers on our 40. Maybe we spend the $60M on maxing it out on just 2 players: Alonso and Bregman or Alonso and Bichette. I know that is highly doubtful, especially if we have K Marte.

Adding 3 infielders would allow us to trade the big injury question mark, Mayer. Maybe something as stunning as this:

Mayer, Hicks and Harrison for K Marte. ($9M on tax line.)

Duran for Lodolo (Saves $3M on tax line)

Sign Alonso & Bichette or Bregman for 3B

1. L Anthony LF

2. S K Marte 2B

3. R Bregman/Bichette 3B

4. R Alonso 1B

5. L Abreu RF

6. R Story SS

7. L Masas/R Romy DH

8. R Narvaez C

9. R Rafaela CF

Bench: Wong, Romy, DHam & Garcia/Campbell

SP: Crochet, Lodolo, Gray, Bello, Sandoval/Crawford/Dobbins

RP: Chapman, Whitlock. Slaten, Weissert, Criswell, Moran, Crawford/Dobbins/Tolle/Early/Kelly/Perales/Sandlin/Uberstine/Drohan

 

[Behindenemylines]

17 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Pie in the sky, getting Bregman or Bichette plus Alonso will be near $60-70M AAV. I think that puts us over the second line, unless we shed salary.

Masa (18) and Hicks (12) are the fan faves to dump, but at best we would only dump a small fraction or either one. More likely, we could trade an OF'er (Duran at 7.7 or KC at 7.5 or maybe Rafaela at 6.3.) That may be enough to sneak us under line 2.

More likely, if we do sign a big bat, it will be trade for 1 and sign one, with the trade not adding a bunch of cost.

Masa and Hicks are weighing on the Sox ability to get two power bats.

[moonslav59]

24 minutes ago, Behindenemylines said:

Masa and Hicks are weighing on the Sox ability to get two power bats.

So is JH's yacht.

 

[Behindenemylines]

40 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

So is JH's yacht.

 

 

40 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

So is JH's yacht.

 

Maybe that's the answer to off loading Masa's contract. Besides keeping some of the dollars include JH's yacht.

[JoeBrady]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

2. S K Marte 2B

3. R Bregman/Bichette 3B

4. R Alonso 1B

I think your total payroll will be in excess of $280M.  Not happening.

[UtahSox]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

 

Adding 3 infielders would allow us to trade the big injury question mark, Mayer. Maybe something as stunning as this:

Mayer, Hicks and Harrison for K Marte. ($9M on tax line.)

Duran for Lodolo (Saves $3M on tax line)

Sign Alonso & Bichette or Bregman for 3B

1. L Anthony LF

2. S K Marte 2B

3. R Bregman/Bichette 3B

4. R Alonso 1B

5. L Abreu RF

6. R Story SS

7. L Masas/R Romy DH

8. R Narvaez C

9. R Rafaela CF

Bench: Wong, Romy, DHam & Garcia/Campbell

SP: Crochet, Lodolo, Gray, Bello, Sandoval/Crawford/Dobbins

RP: Chapman, Whitlock. Slaten, Weissert, Criswell, Moran, Crawford/Dobbins/Tolle/Early/Kelly/Perales/Sandlin/Uberstine/Drohan

 

This is literally a best case scenario…. But this is what the World Series Red Sox rosters looked like. 

[Hugh2]

7 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I think your total payroll will be in excess of $280M.  Not happening.

Not saying that this is realistic, but I think you might be overshooting it by 20 million.

they would certainly be below the 3rd threshold where they start to lose draft picks.  One I don’t think Henry’s too ever go over.  But he’s gone over the second threshold before

[mvp 78]

26 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Not saying that this is realistic, but I think you might be overshooting it by 20 million.

they would certainly be below the 3rd threshold where they start to lose draft picks.  One I don’t think Henry’s too ever go over.  But he’s gone over the second threshold before

They are at 220M now. Adding those 3 definitely gets them to 280. 

[Hugh2]

17 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They are at 220M now. Adding those 3 definitely gets them to 280. 

They’re at 220, but going off of Moons hypothetical.  Subtracting Harris/Hicks/Duran and adding Marte/Lodolo increases payroll by 3.4 million

Bregman/Brochette/Alonso projected contracts all apps $30 AAV 

so that’s adding -+ $63 million and that increases payroll to……oh yeah about 280 I guess you guys are right.

 

[Hugh2]

However, I still think the Sox could do that and be below the third threshold, where the penalties are the harshest.  AND we have to remember the Red Sox have said time and time again they would spend when they thought the time was right.

you have to consider that their actual CASH payroll is about $40 -$50 million less than the LT payroll.

so while that hypothetical might be excessive i think people should accept that the team could spend more in LT dollars than they have in years.

if you don’t believe that, then sitting at $220-$223 you have to pretty much believe this team is done adding.

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

They’re at 220, but going off of Moons hypothetical.  Subtracting Harris/Hicks/Duran and adding Marte/Lodolo increases payroll by 3.4 million

Bregman/Brochette/Alonso projected contracts all apps $30 AAV 

so that’s adding -+ $63 million and that increases payroll to……oh yeah about 280 I guess you guys are right.

First, no other GM is going to go for one of the moon trades. Second, I'm usually right. 😎

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

if you don’t believe that, then sitting at $220-$223 you have to pretty much believe this team is done adding.

They'll spend more, but I think adding Alonso AND Bregman seems unlikely. If anything it'd be a Marte trade and Breggie or Okamoto signing and Breggie. Having a second piece that is significantly cheaper than Alonso will give them flexibility to make a move at the deadline if they want to. 

[Hugh2]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They'll spend more, but I think adding Alonso AND Bregman seems unlikely. If anything it'd be a Marte trade and Breggie or Okamoto signing and Breggie. Having a second piece that is significantly cheaper than Alonso will give them flexibility to make a move at the deadline if they want to. 

I think that is more realistic, I was going to say something similar.  If they spend big on Bregman or Bichette they’re probably going cheaper with Okamoto instead of Alonso at first.  
 

that is still going to put them somewhere around the second LT line give or take.

[mvp 78]

59 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I think that is more realistic, I was going to say something similar.  If they spend big on Bregman or Bichette they’re probably going cheaper with Okamoto instead of Alonso at first.  
 

that is still going to put them somewhere around the second LT line give or take.

I think adding Gray automatically puts them closer to the second line than they probably wanted to go, but I think they were happy with the lower level prospect cost they had to give up.