A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Old Red said:

My understanding is that the Red Sox are on the hook for a total of $21M of guaranteed money. $11M for this year, and the buyout that went up to $10M, because of the trade.

Yes, I did not scroll down far enough. My bad. I apologize.

• Gray to waive his right to block a trade,

• contract restructured to guarantee Gray a $31M salary in 2026 and a $10M buyout on a $30M mutual option for 2027
• Cardinals to pay Red Sox $20M

[moonslav59]

BTV Accepts: Abreu for Paredes, King and Janek

Would you?

1. L Anthony RF

2. R Contreras 1B

3. L Duran LF

4. R Paredes 3B

5. R Story SS

6. L Yoshida DH/ R Romy DH or 2B

7. R Narvaez C

8. L Mayer 2B/ R Campbell DH

9. R Rafaela CF

[Old Red]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, I did not scroll down far enough. My bad. I apologize.

• Gray to waive his right to block a trade,

• contract restructured to guarantee Gray a $31M salary in 2026 and a $10M buyout on a $30M mutual option for 2027
• Cardinals to pay Red Sox $20M

No problem, but even if Gray pitches well this year I’d be hard pressed to believe Boston would pay him $30M next year.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Old Red said:

No problem, but even if Gray pitches well this year I’d be hard pressed to believe Boston would pay him $30M next year.

But, they pay $10M to not play, so the difference is just $20M.

[Old Red]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

But, they pay $10M to not play, so the difference is just $20M.

Just $20M? I’ve read so much on here of the Red Sox shedding some contracts to lower payroll, and now $20M is just $20M.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Just $20M? I’ve read so much on here of the Red Sox shedding some contracts to lower payroll, and now $20M is just $20M.

Well, they are paying $21M for Gray, now. It's actually a paycut.

[JoeBrady]

31 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

BTV Accepts: Abreu for Paredes, King and Janek

Would you?

I would.  I'd rate Abreu and Parades roughly even.  So it is King and Janek for 2 years of Abreu.  King is solid good.  Janek has some holes, but that's how you get guys like Janek.  I think that favors Houston, but the fit for the RS makes up for that.

[JoeBrady]

18 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Just $20M? I’ve read so much on here of the Red Sox shedding some contracts to lower payroll, and now $20M is just $20M.

I'm not sure who's option it is.  If it's a mutual option, then it is a flat $10M cost.  If it is a club option, the his marginal cost to us is $20M with some chance of us picking up the option.  It feels like this will cost us something next year, but there is a decent chance that it is less than the full $10M.

[Old Red]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Well, they are paying $21M for Gray, now. It's actually a paycut.

If they pick up the option that would make it paying Gray $41M vs $21M if they don’t, which is still a difference of $20M.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I would.  I'd rate Abreu and Parades roughly even.  So it is King and Janek for 2 years of Abreu.  King is solid good.  Janek has some holes, but that's how you get guys like Janek.  I think that favors Houston, but the fit for the RS makes up for that.

King fills a need for the Sox, too.

4 years of Abreu helps the Astros, a lot. They really want an OF'er, too, and Abreu plays great D and has power.

Janek gives us some catcher hope for the future.

This might be one of my better suggestions.

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

BTV has his value at $16M. ($28M value-$12M contract) 

BTV has Crawford worth $21.7M ($35M-$13M pay). I'm almost certain the Cubs say not to that 1 on 1 offer. Even adding Cespedes (6.8) Bleis (3.5) Castro 1.8 or DHam (1.1) would still make it a swift "NO!"

I think Crawford (21.7) + Harrison (6.6) might get a yes, but 3 years of Crawford and 4 years of Harrison for 1 year of Hoerner makes me hesitate. I think I'd do it and hope we can extend Hoerner. (I feel better about chances at extending, lately.)

I'd prefer Crawford + Sandlin (5.5) and maybe they want a non 40 man pitcher instead- like...

10.8 Phillips

9.0 Oviedo (2 yrs)

6.0 Bennett or Valera (I'd say no to Valera)

5.5 Eyanson would be a good add.

5.4 Sandoval saves us a bunch of cash

2.9 Drohan likely does not move the needle enough.

call 'em up and get it done.

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, Old Red said:

If they pick up the option that would make it paying Gray $41M vs $21M if they don’t, which is still a difference of $20M.

Speaking of $20M do you think the Red Sox would have made the trade for Gray in the first place if St. Louis hadn’t of thrown in $20M? I don’t.

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, Old Red said:

If they pick up the option that would make it paying Gray $41M vs $21M if they don’t, which is still a difference of $20M.

Huh?

They may $30M or $10M not $40M.

[Old Red]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Huh?

They may $30M or $10M not $40M.

Huh? This isn’t that hard at all. The Red Sox are paying Gray $11M this year. If they they have to pay the mutual option next year that’s $30M more for a total of $41M. If they don’t have to pay the $30M mutual option then it becomes $10, which adds up to $21 M, which is a difference of $20M. If you just count next year it’s still $30M vs $10M, which is still a $20M difference.🤭

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Huh? This isn’t that hard at all. The Red Sox are paying Gray $11M this year. If they they have to pay the mutual option next year that’s $30M more for a total of $41M. If they don’t have to pay the $30M mutual option then it becomes $10, which adds up to $21 M, which is a difference of $20M. If you just count next year it’s still $30M vs $10M, which is still a $20M difference.🤭

I did not know you were adding 2026 and 2027.

Yes, $10M +$30M = $40M.

If they buy out, it's $10M + $10M=$20M

$40M-$20M is still the $20M difference, not $40M difference.

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I did not know you were adding 2026 and 2027.

Yes, $10M +$30M = $40M.

If they buy out, it's $10M + $10M=$20M

$40M-$20M is still the $20M difference, not $40M difference.

I NEVER SAID there was a $40M difference.🤔

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

I NEVER SAID there was a $40M difference.🤔

Sorry, I misread your post.

You think the Sox will likely pay him $10M to walk rather than $30M to play?

I know a lot depends on how well he does, and he's like 84 years old, but still...

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Sorry, I misread your post.

You think the Sox will likely pay him $10M to walk rather than $30M to play?

I know a lot depends on how well he does, and he's like 84 years old, but still...

I was shocked they give Ranger a 5 yr contract for as much as they did, and would be more shocked if they picked up a option for $30M saving themselves $20M.

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I was shocked they give Ranger a 5 yr contract for as much as they did, and would be more shocked if they picked up a option for $30M saving themselves $20M.

It's like paying a FA Gray $20M/1. They paid more for Buehler.

SHOCK!

[Old Red]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It's like paying a FA Gray $20M/1. They paid more for Buehler.

SHOCK!

Total yes, but this would be $11M this year, and $10M next year, so not quite the same as a 1 yr deal.

[mvp 78]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

BTV Accepts: Abreu for Paredes, King and Janek

Would you?

Sure. I'd rather trade Abreu than Duran. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

BTV Accepts: Abreu for Paredes, King and Janek

Would you?

1. L Anthony RF

2. R Contreras 1B

3. L Duran LF

4. R Paredes 3B

5. R Story SS

6. L Yoshida DH/ R Romy DH or 2B

7. R Narvaez C

8. L Mayer 2B/ R Campbell DH

9. R Rafaela CF

I know batting your best or most dangerous hitter leadoff is the trend -- like Ohtani or Schwarber -- but the Red Sox' offense is so weak, we really need to maximize Anthony's hard contact skills. I'd bat the guy with the second-best On Base Percentage directly in front of him.

That has to be Duran -- who most of us lament just doesn't get on base enough to bat leadoff. But his 2025 .332 OBP is by far the best of the returnees...

Look at these craptacular OBPs: Abreu .317, Story .308, Yoshida .307, Narvaez .306, Rafaela .295, Mayer .272 (do we really want the two worst batting in front of Roman?).

Contreras, a bat already slated by Cora for clean-up, reached at a clip of .344 last year. Paredes was .352 -- he'd be a good get.

[Old Red]

17 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Sure. I'd rather trade Abreu than Duran. 

BTV is never the other team, so it would all depend what they would want in any trade with the Red Sox, so would another team see Duran, or Abreu as a better player, and fit for them.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

BTV is never the other team, so it would all depend what they would want in any trade with the Red Sox, so would another team see Duran, or Abreu as a better player, and fit for them.

It's always the other case the team would probably say no. That's just less fun to say on here for the most part. We've had a few offseasons now where the OF didn't make sense and it seems like they'll still probably go into the season with 4 OFers. I'm sure the offseason rumors hasn't hurt Duran's mental health at all. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

Total yes, but this would be $11M this year, and $10M next year, so not quite the same as a 1 yr deal.

If they buy him out, they paid him $20M for 2026.

If they take the option, they pay him $20M (more) to play in 2027.

That's how I see it.

I'd gues 50-50 we give him the $30M to play rather than $10M to walk.

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I know batting your best or most dangerous hitter leadoff is the trend -- like Ohtani or Schwarber -- but the Red Sox' offense is so weak, we really need to maximize Anthony's hard contact skills. I'd bat the guy with the second-best On Base Percentage directly in front of him.

That has to be Duran -- who most of us lament just doesn't get on base enough to bat leadoff. But his 2025 .332 OBP is by far the best of the returnees...

I'd go with Contreras.

.352 career OBP (.358 last 3 years)

Duran is .328 career and .339 last 3 years.

I like Anthony up first, until he starts hitting for more power, which I'm sure will come before too long.

I'm not sure Romy can repeat his .343 OBP, but I'd want him up before Duran v LHPs, for sure:

2026 Splits v L/R

.378/.318 Romy

.260/.363 Duran

Maybe go Duran 1st v R and Romy, Contreras or Anthony up 1st v L.

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If they buy him out, they paid him $20M for 2026.

If they take the option, they pay him $20M (more) to play in 2027.

That's how I see it.

I'd gues 50-50 we give him the $30M to play rather than $10M to walk.

 

If they buy him out they pay him $11M in 2026, and $10M for the buyout whenever that is. $21M total no matter how you want to look at it. If they pick up the option it’s $11M this year, and $30M next year for a total of $41M. Its really just that simple, and nothing more to it. I disagree 100% they pick up his $30M OPTION next year.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Old Red said:

If they buy him out they pay him $11M in 2026, and $10M for the buyout whenever that is. $21M total no matter how you want to look at it. If they pick up the option it’s $11M this year, and $30M next year for a total of $41M. Its really just that simple, and nothing more to it. I disagree 100% they pick up his $30M OPTION next year.

Yes, $21M for one and $41M for 2.

If they like him at $21M/1 enough to even give up two players, I'm not sure why $41M/2 looks so absurd.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

23 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd go with Contreras.

.352 career OBP (.358 last 3 years)

Duran is .328 career and .339 last 3 years.

I like Anthony up first, until he starts hitting for more power, which I'm sure will come before too long.

I'm not sure Romy can repeat his .343 OBP, but I'd want him up before Duran v LHPs, for sure:

2026 Splits v L/R

.378/.318 Romy

.260/.363 Duran

Maybe go Duran 1st v R and Romy, Contreras or Anthony up 1st v L.

The Red Sox may view Contreras the run-producer who'll drive in Anthony in the L-R order. But with WiLL 4th he won't provide much protection for Roman if the latter is leadoff.

And now without Bregman, it will be just too easy to pitch around Roman -- when he's hot -- and go after another big whiffer. This is one of two reasons I don't want Geno Suarez (the other is his D).

Obviously, the batting order is still missing that one more quality contact bat, which we can't or shouldn't be distracted from after just pivoting to another quality pitcher.

Just remember, even if Contreras is the viable replacement for Devers the offense won't even be as good as last year until they replace Bregman.

 

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The Red Sox may view Contreras the run-producer who'll drive in Anthony in the L-R order. But with WiLL 4th he won't provide much protection for Roman if the latter is leadoff.

And now without Bregman, it will be just too easy to pitch around Roman -- when he's hot -- and go after another big whiffer. This is one of two reasons I don't want Geno Suarez (the other is his D).

Obviously, the batting order is still missing that one more quality contact bat, which we can't or shouldn't be distracted from after just pivoting to another quality pitcher.

Just remember, even if Contreras is the viable replacement for Devers the offense won't even be as good as last year until they replace Bregman.

 

I think Contreras replaced Bregman's bat- maybe not the 2025 bat fully, but close.

We need to replace the power void left by Devers.