A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

They won't make Mayer and Campbell bench players.  Campbell needs to play fulltime, and almost definitely in AAA.  I think, maybe, that we get Suarez or Paredes, but I'd bet on Mayer starting.

Agreed. I should have called them "depth."

[moonslav59]

BTV assigns a value to players by subtracting the salary/projected salary from the total value a player has. Players with more years of control can have significantly more value due to years not skill levels when compared to someone else.

Here are the skill value per year:

Crochet (40)

Gray (32)

Duran (27)

Anthony (25)

Campbell (23)

Story (22)

Bello (20)

Sandoval (18) seems about $10M too high, and i like him!

Mayer (16)

Abreu (15) seems too low.

Rafaela, Contreras, Slaten (14)

Whitlock, Early (13)

Chapman, Crawford (10)

Tolle (9)

Oviedo, Narvaez, Romy (8)

Casas (7)

Harrison (5)

Yoshida (3)

Weissert, DHam, Wong, Hicks (2)

Sogard (1)

Houck (0)

Value/years:

 

239/6 Crochet (40)

225/9 Anthony (25)

107/9 Campbell (23)

95/7 Rafaela (14)

82/5 Mayer (16)

80/3 Duran (27)

80/4 Bello (20)

79/6 Early (13)

60/4 Abreu (15)

56/6 Tolle (9)

42/5 Narvaez (8)

 

39/3 Whitlock (13)

32/1 Gray (32)

29/3 Crawford (10)

28/2 Contreras (14)

27/4 Slaten (14)

23/3 Romy (8)

22/1 Story (22)

20/3 Casas (7)

19/2 Chapman 10)

18/1 Sandoval (18)

5/2 Oviedo (8)

10/2 Harrison (5)

8/4 Weissert, DHam (2)

7/5 Sogard (1)

6/2 Yoshida (3)

5/3 Wong (2)

4/2 Hicks (2)

0/2 Houck (0)

 

 

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

BTV assigns a value to players by subtracting the salary/projected salary from the total value a player has. Players with more years of control can have significantly more value due to years not skill levels when compared to someone else.

Here are the skill value per year:

Crochet (40)

Gray (32)

Duran (27)

Anthony (25)

Campbell (23)

Story (22)

Bello (20)

Sandoval (18) seems about $10M too high, and i like him!

Mayer (16)

Abreu (15) seems too low.

Rafaela, Contreras, Slaten (14)

Whitlock, Early (13)

Chapman, Crawford (10)

Tolle (9)

Oviedo, Narvaez, Romy (8)

Casas (7)

Harrison (5)

Yoshida (3)

Weissert, DHam, Wong, Hicks (2)

Sogard (1)

Houck (0)

Value/years:

 

239/6 Crochet (40)

225/9 Anthony (25)

107/9 Campbell (23)

95/7 Rafaela (14)

82/5 Mayer (16)

80/3 Duran (27)

80/4 Bello (20)

79/6 Early (13)

60/4 Abreu (15)

56/6 Tolle (9)

42/5 Narvaez (8)

 

39/3 Whitlock (13)

32/1 Gray (32)

29/3 Crawford (10)

28/2 Contreras (14)

27/4 Slaten (14)

23/3 Romy (8)

22/1 Story (22)

20/3 Casas (7)

19/2 Chapman 10)

18/1 Sandoval (18)

5/2 Oviedo (8)

10/2 Harrison (5)

8/4 Weissert, DHam (2)

7/5 Sogard (1)

6/2 Yoshida (3)

5/3 Wong (2)

4/2 Hicks (2)

0/2 Houck (0)

 

 

how do they figure Total Value before subtracting salary?

[Old Red]

20 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed. SS would be better with Story at 2B, but Cora will need his arm broken to make it happen in 2026.

Yes the Red Sox have already come out, and said Story will be the SS, and they would rather have Mayer at 3B instead of 2B. Cora breaking his arm would not change that.

[harmony]

40 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

how do they figure Total Value before subtracting salary?

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/valuing-major-leaguers

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Duran Is The Man said:

how do they figure Total Value before subtracting salary?

My guess is projected fWAR type value structure, and certainly they seem to be off with some guys, just as fangraphs projections do, too. They also have to try to project Anthony's value in year 7, 8 and 9. It's easier to project 2026 value, alone.

They could also be off on salary projections, as many players ar arb or pre-arb. 

[moonslav59]

I notice fangraphs changed some values, as they often do.

DHam went from 1.1 to 3.

Paredes went from 13 to 8.5.

They have Sandoval's value at $18M - $9M salary for about a $9M value. Is 1 year of sandoval equal to 2 years of Paredes? Not a single person in baseball would agree, so obviously they get somethings wrong.

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

Yes the Red Sox have already come out, and said Story will be the SS, and they would rather have Mayer at 3B instead of 2B. Cora breaking his arm would not change that.

That was what I meant by "breaking his arm." It's not happening. I know it's not.

Suggestions are not predictions.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

they would rather have Mayer at 3B instead of 2B

While our alignment favors us adding a 3B, there is a definite logic to making Mayer our 3B and never changing.

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

While our alignment favors us adding a 3B, there is a definite logic to making Mayer our 3B and never changing.

Yes, but the SS move once Story bolts could always happen.

The plus about 2B is that if Mayer needs to be platooned, we have the perfect guy for that: Romy.

[moonslav59]

Still no word on the roster move to make room for Ranger.

Wonder if a trade is near, so they can avoid a DFA.

[mvp 78]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Still no word on the roster move to make room for Ranger.

Wonder if a trade is near, so they can avoid a DFA.

Ranger hasn't been able to get to Boston due to visa issues. They have a little longer to deal with the 40 man problem as he doesn't need to be added until the physical happens. 

[Old Red]

17 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

That was what I meant by "breaking his arm." It's not happening. I know it's not.

Suggestions are not predictions.

I know what you meant. I guess another one of those many I don’t agree with Cora, but I don’t think he’s wrong thing.🤓

[Larry Cook]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, but the SS move once Story bolts could always happen.

The plus about 2B is that if Mayer needs to be platooned, we have the perfect guy for that: Romy.

In a perfect world, Mayer would spend his career at 3b and work with the Sox to get a little more strength in the throwing arm!!  
 

I would hope arias is able to step in and take over short stop after story,  that kid is the best defensive short stop we have in the system that I have seen play. 
 

I hope romy is working hard and ready to go come April, he has a huge opportunity in front of him if he can produce!  
 

I think the last non minor move of the off season is figuring out how to get Suarez on the 40 man roster!  Do they send Jovani away? Do they make some sort of trade? 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Larry Cook said:

In a perfect world, Mayer would spend his career at 3b and work with the Sox to get a little more strength in the throwing arm!!  
 

I would hope arias is able to step in and take over short stop after story,  that kid is the best defensive short stop we have in the system that I have seen play. 
 

I hope romy is working hard and ready to go come April, he has a huge opportunity in front of him if he can produce!  
 

I think the last non minor move of the off season is figuring out how to get Suarez on the 40 man roster!  Do they send Jovani away? Do they make some sort of trade? 

The focus this offseason for Mayer was to hit the weight room. We'll see what results come from it. 

Max velo '25

Bregman 83.7

Mayer 83.3

Paredes 84.1

Arias is still a long ways away. Hasn't produces outside of A ball and his bat is underdeveloped IMO.

Not worried about Romy. Probably taking over the Refsnyder role going forward. 

Most likely trading one of the starting pitchers (Sandoval?) as they just have to many guys for the innings they need to hand out. 

[Larry Cook]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The focus this offseason for Mayer was to hit the weight room. We'll see what results come from it. 

Max velo '25

Bregman 83.7

Mayer 83.3

Paredes 84.1

Arias is still a long ways away. Hasn't produces outside of A ball and his bat is underdeveloped IMO.

Not worried about Romy. Probably taking over the Refsnyder role going forward. 

Most likely trading one of the starting pitchers (Sandoval?) as they just have to many guys for the innings they need to hand out. 

We shall see if arias bat develops. He has a lot of rafeala in him! But a bit more selective. He will probably start the year at Portland and lead off. (I hope they let him run more this year too) 
 

but arias glove is light years ahead of story or Mayer or anybody else in the system above the Florida league as of today!!  Dude is amazing at getting to balls story could only dream about reaching 

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

We shall see if arias bat develops. He has a lot of rafeala in him! But a bit more selective. He will probably start the year at Portland and lead off. (I hope they let him run more this year too) 
 

but arias glove is light years ahead of story or Mayer or anybody else in the system above the Florida league as of today!!  Dude is amazing at getting to balls story could only dream about reaching 

Without Rafaela's power potential, that free swinging approach, doesn't pay the dividends as you climb the ladder. He's also not super fast. 

[notin]

20 hours ago, Old Red said:

Yes the Red Sox have already come out, and said Story will be the SS, and they would rather have Mayer at 3B instead of 2B. Cora breaking his arm would not change that.

Not sure why Alex Cora suffering a broken arm would re-align the Sox infield…

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Old Red said:

I know what you meant. I guess another one of those many I don’t agree with Cora, but I don’t think he’s wrong thing.🤓

It's more like I don't agree with somethings Cora does and does not do, but I'm 100% fine with him as our manager. It's not all black and white to me.

Several times I suggested different line-ups, but Cora's worked, so yes, there are times I disagreed and Cora was not wrong: I was, or he lucked out. An example of what can be called "grey area." Not black and white/ right and wrong.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

In a perfect world, Mayer would spend his career at 3b and work with the Sox to get a little more strength in the throwing arm!!  
 

I would hope arias is able to step in and take over short stop after story,  that kid is the best defensive short stop we have in the system that I have seen play. 
 

I hope romy is working hard and ready to go come April, he has a huge opportunity in front of him if he can produce!  
 

I think the last non minor move of the off season is figuring out how to get Suarez on the 40 man roster!  Do they send Jovani away? Do they make some sort of trade? 

Mentioning Mayer's arm makes me also think he could be the solution to our decade long 2B problem, too.

I'm biased for Jovani for some reason. I'd DFA Hicks (not happening) or Eaton. I might even prefer to send Watson back, but I know very little about him.

I'm not super high on Uberstine, Drohan or Kelly, either. Any of these guys could be DFA'd or traded and I would not blink an eye.

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Not sure why Alex Cora suffering a broken arm would re-align the Sox infield…

Are you implying a broken leg might work?

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Mentioning Mayer's arm makes me also think he could be the solution to our decade long 2B problem, too.

I'm biased for Jovani for some reason. I'd DFA Hicks (not happening) or Eaton. I might even prefer to send Watson back, but I know very little about him.

I'm not super high on Uberstine, Drohan or Kelly, either. Any of these guys could be DFA'd or traded and I would not blink an eye.

 

Why the Red Sox rather play Mayer at 3B instead of 2B if he would be the so called solution to the decade long 2B problem?🤔

[JoeBrady]

44 minutes ago, Old Red said:

the so called solution to the decade long 2B problem?

• One might consider 3B a decade-long problem since we had a DH there.
• Regardless, we can only solve the problems in front of us, barring the acquisition of a DeLorean (yes, Fred, we know JH is too cheap to buy one).

[notin]

6 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Ranger hasn't been able to get to Boston due to visa issues. They have a little longer to deal with the 40 man problem as he doesn't need to be added until the physical happens. 

Maybe he should use his MasterCard instead…

 

<rimshot>

[Larry Cook]

As of right now:

Anthony - outfield - plays LHP and RHP - above average defense in LF and RF 

rafeala - outfield - plays LHP and RHP - gold glove center fielder. 

Abreu - outfield - plays RHP - gold glove right fielder 

duran - outfield - plays RHP and maybe LHP - decent centerfield and dumpster fire in left field 

Contreras - 1B (3rd catcher) - plays LHP and RHP - average defense 

Hamilton - 2B (backup SS and 3rd base) - plays RHP - below average defense 

Romy - 2B (backup 1B, 3B and SS) - plays LHP - below average to average defense. 
story - SS (backup 2B) - plays LHP and RHP - below average defense. 
mayer - 3B (backup 2B and SS) - plays RHP and maybe LHP - average to above average defense 

narveaz - catcher - plays LHP and RHP rafeala- above average defense 

Wong - catcher (backup 1B) plays LHP and RHP - average defense 

sogard - (backup everywhere except catcher) plays LHP and RHP - average defense 

yoshida - DH - plays RHP and maybe LHP - dumpster fire defender 

( starts the year on the DL and moves to Worcester.) 

defense is improved versus last year. Offense is definitely less than last year, but could it closer with the development of Mayer, Anthony and narveaz 

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, Old Red said:

Why the Red Sox rather play Mayer at 3B instead of 2B if he would be the so called solution to the decade long 2B problem?🤔

Because we have a need at 3B and 2B right now, in case you didn't notice.

It depends on who we add- a 2Bman or 3Bman, and Mayer will be expected to play the other slot.

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

As of right now:

Anthony - outfield - plays LHP and RHP - above average defense in LF and RF 

rafeala - outfield - plays LHP and RHP - gold glove center fielder. 

Abreu - outfield - plays RHP - gold glove right fielder 

duran - outfield - plays RHP and maybe LHP - decent centerfield and dumpster fire in left field 

Contreras - 1B (3rd catcher) - plays LHP and RHP - average defense 

Hamilton - 2B (backup SS and 3rd base) - plays RHP - below average defense 

Romy - 2B (backup 1B, 3B and SS) - plays LHP - below average to average defense. 
story - SS (backup 2B) - plays LHP and RHP - below average defense. 
mayer - 3B (backup 2B and SS) - plays RHP and maybe LHP - average to above average defense 

narveaz - catcher - plays LHP and RHP rafeala- above average defense 

Wong - catcher (backup 1B) plays LHP and RHP - average defense 

sogard - (backup everywhere except catcher) plays LHP and RHP - average defense 

yoshida - DH - plays RHP and maybe LHP - dumpster fire defender 

( starts the year on the DL and moves to Worcester.) 

defense is improved versus last year. Offense is definitely less than last year, but could it closer with the development of Mayer, Anthony and narveaz 

Duran should DH over Masa v RHPs. The other 3 OF'er should play FT, so there is not much room for Duran in the OF, unless an injury occurs. 

Rafaela has reverse splits, so he is not a prime platoon partner with Duran or Abreu.

 

[mvp 78]

Duran was 3rd in MLB in LF with 11 DRS. Not sure that can be considered a dumpster fire. 

[Hugh2]

The Dodgers will spend more money in payroll taxes next year than at least 12 MLB teams actual payrolls. 

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

The Dodgers will spend more money in payroll taxes next year than at least 12 MLB teams actual payrolls. 

Any team 100M under the CBT should be up for sale.