A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

Still no news on who goes to make room for Suarez. Since there has been no immediate DFA, maybe a trade will be announced, soon.

I am liking the Suarez signing more and more. He's not the big, power pitcher Brez has been stock-piling, and I think it's a good thing to have variety in your rotation. It helps keep teams off balance, somewhat.

This guy has been real good for 2 years. I'm not so worried about who he was before that. There is no reason to think he'll regress.

We arguably have 3 of MLBs best 15-30 pitchers. It seems obvious we have 2 of the top 15 (Crochet & Suarez)and maybe 2 more of the 60 (Gray & Bello.)

[drewski6]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

BTV Accepts: Abreu for Paredes, King and Janek

Would you?

1. L Anthony RF

2. R Contreras 1B

3. L Duran LF

4. R Paredes 3B

5. R Story SS

6. L Yoshida DH/ R Romy DH or 2B

7. R Narvaez C

8. L Mayer 2B/ R Campbell DH

9. R Rafaela CF

Dont love starting the year with a bottom half of noodle bats, and a mediocre top half

2 injuries to the top half and we're plugging in guys off the waiver wire like we did last year.

Hopefully DHam and Eaton are doing push-ups right now

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

If they buy him out, they paid him $20M for 2026.

If they take the option, they pay him $20M (more) to play in 2027.

That's how I see it.

I'd gues 50-50 we give him the $30M to play rather than $10M to walk.

 

There is no buyout or mutual option. THe contract was reworked when he was traded.

Hes making 40m this year, 20m from the cards, 20m from us, and hes a free agent after the year

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Sure. I'd rather trade Abreu than Duran. 

I like both.

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I know batting your best or most dangerous hitter leadoff is the trend -- like Ohtani or Schwarber -- but the Red Sox' offense is so weak, we really need to maximize Anthony's hard contact skills. I'd bat the guy with the second-best On Base Percentage directly in front of him.

That has to be Duran -- who most of us lament just doesn't get on base enough to bat leadoff. But his 2025 .332 OBP is by far the best of the returnees...

Look at these craptacular OBPs: Abreu .317, Story .308, Yoshida .307, Narvaez .306, Rafaela .295, Mayer .272 (do we really want the two worst batting in front of Roman?).

Contreras, a bat already slated by Cora for clean-up, reached at a clip of .344 last year. Paredes was .352 -- he'd be a good get.

Anthony doesnt really have the loft to bat third (at present, launch angle will likely improve), but Im okay with second.

Duran
Anthony
<please be an elite hitter or close>
Contreras
Abreu
Story

And we're cooking (especially with our pitching staff)

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Dont love starting the year with a bottom half of noodle bats, and a mediocre top half

2 injuries to the top half and we're plugging in guys off the waiver wire like we did last year.

Hopefully DHam and Eaton are doing push-ups right now

I think those bottom 3 in that order are as good as most teams' bottom 3, but they are not great. They do have upside.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Anthony doesnt really have the loft to bat third (at present, launch angle will likely improve), but Im okay with second.

Duran
Anthony
<please be an elite hitter or close>
Contreras
Abreu
Story

And we're cooking (especially with our pitching staff)

I could see Anthony second, as he may be our best batter.

[drewski6]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think those bottom 3 in that order are as good as most teams' bottom 3, but they are not great. They do have upside.

The bottom three may be as good as most other teams bottom 3, but its not a great bottom 3 or even bottom 4. The top 5 may be as good as most other teams top 5, but its not a great top 5.

And injuries will happen

And what I expect: is that the pitching will carry us into the playoffs, but we'll hit a wall against Toronto, NYY, Seattle.

Good season - but I think youll have to add to the thump to get past top 3 in the AL. ANd I dont think swapping Abreu for Paredes gets you there.

BUT theres always the deadline (assuming we dont blow it again)

Your team (swapping Abreu for Paredes) I think positions us decently enough to start the season, remain in contention, but I think we'll need more firepower at the deadline (or the chance that KC breaks out, which the chance of is not 0%)

[drewski6]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I could see Anthony second, as he may be our best batter.

With a launch angle improvement - he is our best hitter
As is - he may be our best hitter

I agree with you.

[drewski6]

Im also wary of sophomore slumps for position players.  Like didnt even Michael Chavis look good his rook season?

Obviously, Im aware that RA is a cut above, and Im sure hes going to hit and hit well.  Im just not 100% that the OPS will be north of .850. I am confident it will be north of .800.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

The bottom three may be as good as most other teams bottom 3, but its not a great bottom 3 or even bottom 4. The top 5 may be as good as most other teams top 5, but its not a great top 5.

And injuries will happen

And what I expect: is that the pitching will carry us into the playoffs, but we'll hit a wall against Toronto, NYY, Seattle.

Good season - but I think youll have to add to the thump to get past top 3 in the AL. ANd I dont think swapping Abreu for Paredes gets you there.

BUT theres always the deadline (assuming we dont blow it again)

Your team (swapping Abreu for Paredes) I think positions us decently enough to start the season, remain in contention, but I think we'll need more firepower at the deadline (or the chance that KC breaks out, which the chance of is not 0%)

Our offense is not top 10. It may not be top 15 or 20.

It needs help.

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Im also wary of sophomore slumps for position players.  Like didnt even Michael Chavis look good his rook season?

Obviously, Im aware that RA is a cut above, and Im sure hes going to hit and hit well.  Im just not 100% that the OPS will be north of .850. I am confident it will be north of .800.

Why should we mostly expect bad things to happen?

Many players improve as they near prime and even in year 2. I'd expect most do.

I expect most will, some will stay about the same, and a few might decline.

Even our prime and post prime players are not too old to think they might stay near the same or even improve.

[mvp 78]

39 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I like both.

Trading both Abreu and Duran seems like a lot! 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Trading both Abreu and Duran seems like a lot! 

If we believed in Campbell and felt Masa was okay as the 4th OF'er...

[drewski6]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Why should we mostly expect bad things to happen?

Many players improve as they near prime and even in year 2. I'd expect most do.

I expect most will, some will stay about the same, and a few might decline.

Even our prime and post prime players are not too old to think they might stay near the same or even improve.

Im always warry of sophmore slumps for position players, especially when they are as young as Roman is. Im not expecting especially bad things for him or predicting them.

Like I said, Im confident that the ops will be good, im just not sure hes ready to be a superstar at the plate with an OPS above .850 at what 22 years old? Very very rare for 22 yr olds to mash like that.  I know he is a very very rare 22 yr old and im not disputing that.

I just think his age is one of many reasons why we need more hitting.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Im always warry of sophmore slumps for position players, especially when they are as young as Roman is. Im not expecting especially bad things for him or predicting them.

Like I said, Im confident that the ops will be good, im just not sure hes ready to be a superstar at the plate with an OPS above .850 at what 22 years old? Very very rare for 22 yr olds to mash like that.  I know he is a very very rare 22 yr old and im not disputing that.

I just think his age is one of many reasons why we need more hitting.

Any sophomore slums should be, in theory, offset by age progression upticks from Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Romy, DHam, Wong. It's not unrealistic to expect the same or more from Masa and Story.

The only returning rookies are Anthony, Mayer, narvaez and Campbell. They should be outnumbered.

That being said, I agree: we need a major boost to the offense to be a well-balanced team.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

56 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Anthony doesnt really have the loft to bat third (at present, launch angle will likely improve), but Im okay with second.

Duran
Anthony
<please be an elite hitter or close>
Contreras
Abreu
Story

And we're cooking (especially with our pitching staff)

That hole in your #3 slot is very real and very scary.

Marte is ideal, but Hazen says no deal. 

If so, the best option is Paredes, but Cora would never bat two lefties in a row, followed by two righties in a row... so Anthony may still wind up batting third.

Nico Hoerner doesn't slug but can get on base and run. He'd be ok batting in front of Roman. 

Right now we're looking at Duran-Story-Anthony-Contreras-Abreu. And if Geno joins them in Florida, fans will feel the breeze from the Sultans of Swing And Miss all the way to Alaska. 

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

That hole in your #3 slot is very real and very scary.

Right now vs RHP:

Anthony/Rafaela/Duran/Contreras/Abreu/Story/Mayer/Narvaez/Hamilton (Masa bench bat?)

vs LHP:

Anthony/Romy/Duran/Contreras/Masa/Story/Mayer/Narvaez/Rafaela (Abreu platoon bat?)

[drewski6]

15 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

That hole in your #3 slot is very real and very scary.

Marte is ideal, but Hazen says no deal. 

If so, the best option is Paredes, but Cora would never bat two lefties in a row, followed by two righties in a row... so Anthony may still wind up batting third.

Nico Hoerner doesn't slug but can get on base and run. He'd be ok batting in front of Roman. 

Right now we're looking at Duran-Story-Anthony-Contreras-Abreu. And if Geno joins them in Florida, fans will feel the breeze from the Sultans of Swing And Miss all the way to Alaska. 

Strike outs are better than groundballs when there is a runner at first and less than 2 outs.

If Anthony shows an improved launch angle, Im fine with him third.  I hear you on the L-r-l-r thing, and this is probably why duran hits third as opposed to second where hes prob a bit better suited for.

So if you want Anthony 3rd, we are just going to have get aggressive, and from this POV Story actually works well because hes underrated at stealing bags.

If you wanna go Duran, Story, ANthony - I dont hate it.  But I dont want Anthony coming up with runners on first.

Second and third with RA at the plate, im great with.  First and second, not so much.  Because second and third , you either walk RA to load the bases for Contreras (not bad) or Anthony smashes the ball into the dirt that gets fielded (Anthony out, Duran scores from 3rd). Or even better because its RA, the ball will be smashed into the dirt, and Story is fast and smart enough to get home from 2nd should it get through (and many many will and do get through the infield). 

What I dont want : Duran, Story, RA batting order playing station to station.

[drewski6]

16 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Right now vs RHP:

Anthony/Rafaela/Duran/Contreras/Abreu/Story/Mayer/Narvaez/Hamilton (Masa bench bat?)

vs LHP:

Anthony/Romy/Duran/Contreras/Masa/Story/Mayer/Narvaez/Rafaela (Abreu platoon bat?)

Why Cedanne second over Story vs RHP?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

What I dont want : Duran, Story, RA batting order playing station to station.

This is where a good year from Contreras is vital. Let Duran and Story run, and with 1B open, teams pitch around Anthony at their own risk.

But good point about Ant angle: Roman Candle > Roman Anthills.

And the cheerleaders were just learning their '26 chant: "Roman Anthony, he's our man -- If he can't do it... Whoooooooo?"

 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

There is no buyout or mutual option. THe contract was reworked when he was traded.

Hes making 40m this year, 20m from the cards, 20m from us, and hes a free agent after the year

From MLB.com

Upon completion of the trade, Boston and Gray negotiated Gray’s $35 million salary for 2026 to $31 million while increasing the buyout of his $30 million club option for '27 from $5 million to $10 million. Gray also has the ability to opt out of the option if the Red Sox exercise it. A source told MLB.com's Ian Browne that St. Louis is sending the Red Sox $20 million to cover part of Gray’s salary for 2026 and the buyout of his club option.

From ESPN.com

He had been guaranteed $40 million for the next two seasons: $35 million for 2026 and a $5 million buyout of a $30 million team option for 2027. His contract was changed to guarantee him $41 million: a $31 million salary for next year and a $30 million mutual option for 2027 with a $10 million buyout.

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Why Cedanne second over Story vs RHP?

Story k's too much for me to want to hit him 2nd. 

[drewski6]

16 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

From MLB.com

Upon completion of the trade, Boston and Gray negotiated Gray’s $35 million salary for 2026 to $31 million while increasing the buyout of his $30 million club option for '27 from $5 million to $10 million. Gray also has the ability to opt out of the option if the Red Sox exercise it. A source told MLB.com's Ian Browne that St. Louis is sending the Red Sox $20 million to cover part of Gray’s salary for 2026 and the buyout of his club option.

From ESPN.com

He had been guaranteed $40 million for the next two seasons: $35 million for 2026 and a $5 million buyout of a $30 million team option for 2027. His contract was changed to guarantee him $41 million: a $31 million salary for next year and a $30 million mutual option for 2027 with a $10 million buyout.

Okay, but reality mutual options never get exercised and you should consider them invisible. The structure may change the allocation of the financials for CBT (and maybe even cash) purposes - but there is a 99% chance that the buyout is the only thing that matters here.

It will be 41m for the 2026 season.  Maybe 10m of that gets allocated (or even paid) to 2027, Im not sure.  But there is a 99% he wont be here for 30m in 2027. And even if somehow makes mutual sense to exercise a mutual option (never happens, never does), theyll prob still rip up the contract and sign a freshie for 2027.
 

[drewski6]

Only the buyout matters in a mutual option.

[Old Red]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, $21M for one and $41M for 2.

If they like him at $21M/1 enough to even give up two players, I'm not sure why $41M/2 looks so absurd.

When they traded for him I don’t think they intended to have added Ranger also, which I believe wouldn’t have happened if Brez hadn’t botched the Bregman negotiations. I also don’t believe the Red Sox would have traded for Gray if Bloom hadn’t of kicked in the $20M, so depending on what happens this year, and who does, and who doesn’t step  up the Red Sox might not even need Gray next year especially for $30M. They also won’t miss the two players they gave up either. Like I said no $20M from Bloom then I don’t think the deal gets done in the first place. I can’t believe you’re saying it’s only $20M.

 

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, Old Red said:

When they traded for him I don’t think they intended to have added Ranger also, which I believe wouldn’t have happened if Brez hadn’t botched the Bregman negotiations. I also don’t believe the Red Sox would have traded for Gray if Bloom hadn’t of kicked in the $20M, so depending on what happens this year, and who does, and who doesn’t step  up the Red Sox might not even need Gray next year especially for $30M. They also won’t miss the two players they gave up either. Like I said no $20M from Bloom then I don’t think the deal gets done in the first place. I can’t believe you’re saying it’s only $20M.

 

I think they would still do the deal no matter what. Maybe they don't do the Oviedo deal? Maybe they still do both? Hard to say.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

That hole in your #3 slot is very real and very scary.

Marte is ideal, but Hazen says no deal

Semien.  He's costing the NYM ~ $50M CBT and has no position.  Semien for Yoshida.  Yoshida/Vientos platoon DH, while Yoshida backs up their non-existent LF, and Vientos backs up Baty (RH) and Polanco (unlikely to play a full season).

[mvp 78]

Just now, JoeBrady said:

Semien.  He's costing the NYM ~ $50M CBT and has no position.  Semien for Yoshida.  Yoshida/Vientos platoon DH, while Yoshida backs up their non-existent LF, and Vientos backs up Baty (RH) and Polanco (unlikely to play a full season).

They traded for Semien because they want him, not because they want to deal him. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

When they traded for him I don’t think they intended to have added Ranger also, which I believe wouldn’t have happened if Brez hadn’t botched the Bregman negotiations. I also don’t believe the Red Sox would have traded for Gray if Bloom hadn’t of kicked in the $20M, so depending on what happens this year, and who does, and who doesn’t step  up the Red Sox might not even need Gray next year especially for $30M. They also won’t miss the two players they gave up either. Like I said no $20M from Bloom then I don’t think the deal gets done in the first place. I can’t believe you’re saying it’s only $20M.

 

Forget the "only."

We pay him $20M more to pitch than to walk.

I'm not saying he'll be back. My initial guess was 50-50, if it costs us $20M more, since we paid that for Buehler and essentially for Sandoval's one year, two (pretty close.)

I am NOT saying I think we offer it to him.