A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I think they would still do the deal no matter what. Maybe they don't do the Oviedo deal? Maybe they still do both? Hard to say.

My guess is Brez likes Gray and Oviedo more than most of us do, but Sandoval & Harrison are "Brez guys," too.

I think someone will be traded. I'm thinking Crawford, but after hearing Merloni rave about him, I'm having second thoughts.

Since the options for big bat infielders is dwindling, I'm moving away from the idea of trading Duran to someone who values him more as an OF'er than we do as a DH. We need his bat, and probably Abreu's, too. I'm not for trading Anthony, and Rafaela is one of my favorite players.

Maybe E Suarez is still an option. We are about $18M under the third line, so maybe we need to free up $5-10M AAV, depending on how much we can defer with ES.

Some have suggested Bello or Sandoval's $9M. Those would be easier to move than Yoshida ($18M x 2) or Hicks ($10M x 2), especially Bello, but it would be great if we could dump $18M AAV from Yoshida + Hicks by getting someone(s) to pay $10M/yr total for both. That would save us the $10M needed and keep the best of our depth. It would also open a slot on the 40 for Ranger.

 

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

They traded for Semien because they want him, not because they want to deal him. 

Yes, but I was mostly questioning whether Bichette could play 3rd.  I might be mistaken.

[Larry Cook]

19 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

King fills a need for the Sox, too.

4 years of Abreu helps the Astros, a lot. They really want an OF'er, too, and Abreu plays great D and has power.

Janek gives us some catcher hope for the future.

This might be one of my better suggestions.

So Houston trades 3 players to get back a player they traded to us?? 

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

So Houston trades 3 players to get back a player they traded to us?? 

I thought about that, too, and for a 2 month catcher rental that the manager decides would be the back-up.

[moonslav59]

Here is a list of the top OPS players from 2024-2025 that could possibly be FA or trade targets for the Sox and I'm throwing in some names of players not mentioned as trade targets:

.913 KMarte

.861 Seager

.806 Suarez

.784 Chisholm

.769 Vientos

.768 Paredes

.766 Donovan

.762 Bohn

(Bichette is at .755 & Masa is at .742)

.724 Hoerner

Kinda slim pickins.

[moonslav59]

The soxprospects.com podcast was a real downer. They blasted the loss of Bregman and questioned the signing of Suarez after using so manya ssets to get Gray & Oviedo. They even likened the Suarez signing to a trade, as they will lose their 2nd round pick (61st), 5th round pick (159th) & about $2M in Int'l bonus money in 2027.

An ouch listen...

https://news.soxprospects.com/2026/01/podcast-ep-398-alex-bregman-is-cub-but.html

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The soxprospects.com podcast was a real downer. They blasted the loss of Bregman and questioned the signing of Suarez after using so manya ssets to get Gray & Oviedo. They even likened the Suarez signing to a trade, as they will lose their 2nd round pick (61st), 5th round pick (159th) & about $2M in Int'l bonus money in 2027.

An ouch listen...

https://news.soxprospects.com/2026/01/podcast-ep-398-alex-bregman-is-cub-but.html

They think we'll trade Bello to save some money, and they see Early and Tolle as the guys who move up. One will replace Gray and the other replaces Sandoval.

They felt anyone we trade for, other than KMarte will be an imperfect fit. They mentioned Otto Lopez as someone with upside and Royce Lewis, despite the injuries and recent lower O numbers. Their dream guy is Luke Keaschall, but they think we'd need to give up Tolle or Early.

[Larry Cook]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

They think we'll trade Bello to save some money, and they see Early and Tolle as the guys who move up. One will replace Gray and the other replaces Sandoval.

They felt anyone we trade for, other than KMarte will be an imperfect fit. They mentioned Otto Lopez as someone with upside and Royce Lewis, despite the injuries and recent lower O numbers. Their dream guy is Luke Keaschall, but they think we'd need to give up Tolle or Early.

One player has to leave the 40 man to accommodate Suarez! 
 

i personally love the Suarez signing. Better signing than any bat that was available 

[JoeBrady]

47 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Their dream guy is Luke Keaschall, but they think we'd need to give up Tolle or Early.

It would have to be higher, and I'd pay it.

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

They think we'll trade Bello to save some money, and they see Early and Tolle as the guys who move up. One will replace Gray and the other replaces Sandoval.

They felt anyone we trade for, other than KMarte will be an imperfect fit. They mentioned Otto Lopez as someone with upside and Royce Lewis, despite the injuries and recent lower O numbers. Their dream guy is Luke Keaschall, but they think we'd need to give up Tolle or Early.

i'd give up Tolle for Keaschall in a heartbeat. he's the real deal, i'm telling ya'.

[Duran Is The Man]

29 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

It would have to be higher, and I'd pay it.

he's going to be a superstar.

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

It would have to be higher, and I'd pay it.

Of course the Twins would want more. I'm not sure Aria and Tolle gets it done.

BTV accepts Tolle & Campbell.

[moonslav59]

BTV accepts Early & Campbell for Keaschall. (Also Early+Arias)

Of course I had to go nutty:

Tolle, Campbell. Phillips, Wong & DHam for Keaschall & Jeffers

Here is a lesser one: Phillips, Sandlin, Wong & DHam for Jeffers and Kody Clemens.

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

BTV accepts Early & Campbell for Keaschall. (Also Early+Arias)

Of course I had to go nutty:

Tolle, Campbell. Phillips, Wong & DHam for Keaschall & Jeffers

Here is a lesser one: Phillips, Sandlin, Wong & DHam for Jeffers and Kody Clemens.

i don't have BTV.  i wonder if it would accept Mayer for Keaschall.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i don't have BTV.  i wonder if it would accept Mayer for Keaschall.

Yes, it would, Mayer is 54 and K is 41.

We'd still need a 3Bman by trading Mayer.

[Duran Is The Man]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, it would, Mayer is 54 and K is 41.

We'd still need a 3Bman by trading Mayer.

yeah, i was just wondering if it would accept that. i'd do it.

 

[notin]

3 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Yes, but I was mostly questioning whether Bichette could play 3rd.  I might be mistaken.

The answer is no, just like it is at shortstop.  And second base.

But he’s not being paid to field…

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

yeah, i was just wondering if it would accept that. i'd do it.

 

I dont think MN says yes.

[harmony]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, it would, Mayer is 54 and K is 41.

We'd still need a 3Bman by trading Mayer.

Those BTV valuations are puzzling.

FanGraphs projects Marcelo Mayer with a 2026 wRC+ of 96 and 1.8 WAR in 122 games after Mayer posted a wRC+ of 80 and 0.4 fWAR in 44 games last year.

FanGraphs projects Luke Keaschall with a 2026 wRC+ of 112 and 3.0 WAR in 131 games after Keaschall posted a wRC+ of 134 and 1.6 fWAR in 49 games last year.

With 164 days of MLB service, Keaschall is likely headed to Super Two status in two years while Mayer, with 128 days of MLB service, could be on the Super Two cusp in two years. As a result, Keaschall could be more expensive for four seasons before free agency.

Mayer, who is four months younger than Keaschall, could be clinging to value as a former top draft pick.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, harmony said:

Those BTV valuations are puzzling.

FanGraphs projects Marcelo Mayer with a 2026 wRC+ of 96 and 1.8 WAR in 122 games after Mayer posted a wRC+ of 80 and 0.4 fWAR in 44 games last year.

FanGraphs projects Luke Keaschall with a 2026 wRC+ of 112 and 3.0 WAR in 131 games after Keaschall posted a wRC+ of 134 and 1.6 fWAR in 49 games last year.

With 164 days of MLB service, Keaschall is likely headed to Super Two status in two years while Mayer, with 128 days of MLB service, could be on the Super Two cusp in two years. As a result, Keaschall could be more expensive for four seasons before free agency.

Mayer, who is four months younger than Keaschall, could be clinging to value as a former top draft pick.

Certainly BTV has some questionable numbers. Maybe they have data that shows former #1s gain more than guys like K.

I'd trade Mayer for Keaschall, but we'd still need a 3Bman.

BTV has this:

K 84 value- 42 pay= 41 value

M 82 value-27 pay=55 value

So, they do say K is better than M, but feel K will be paid more, perhaps due to reaching arb earlier than M.

[moonslav59]

BTV Accepts:

Mayer, Tolle, Wong & DHam

for

Keaschall, Royce Lewis & Jeffries

Would yo do this?

We lose Tolle, which is huge, and perhaps Mayer busts out, soon, but we gain a great 2Bman, an injury-prone 3Bman with 30 HR power and one year of a catcher with a .777 OPS over the last 3 years and 22 HRs per 650, too!

MN gets 3 years of Wong for 1 year of Jeffries and a damn good young pitcher, but if they don't like Mayer like BTV does, they would surely say no.

[Duran Is The Man]

36 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

BTV Accepts:

Mayer, Tolle, Wong & DHam

for

Keaschall, Royce Lewis & Jeffries

Would yo do this?

We lose Tolle, which is huge, and perhaps Mayer busts out, soon, but we gain a great 2Bman, an injury-prone 3Bman with 30 HR power and one year of a catcher with a .777 OPS over the last 3 years and 22 HRs per 650, too!

MN gets 3 years of Wong for 1 year of Jeffries and a damn good young pitcher, but if they don't like Mayer like BTV does, they would surely say no.

that's a tough one, but i think i'd do it.

[moonslav59]

The top 50 MLB FAs list by MLBTR has dwindled down to just a few top 20 players and very few players of interest to the Sox.

(I took out QO players who took the offer)

Available:

Tier 1

6. Framber (est $150M/6) NOPE for Sox!

8. Bellinger ($140M/5) NOPE

15. Gaallen ($80M/4) NOPE

____________________

Tier 2

17. E Suarez ($63M/3) Fits our power need and plays 3B, but poorly.

___________________

Tier 3

20. Bassitt ($38M/2) Was affordable, but we now have a logjam at SP

23. Giolito ($32M/2) same as Bassitt

27, H Bader ($26M/2) NOPE

28. N Martinez ($25M/2) Could use a pen arm like his.

29. Arraez ($24M/2) Not good enough at 2B

30. Littell ($24M/2) Okay as a pen arm.

32. Verlander $22M/1 NOPE

37. S Dominguez ($18M/2) Maybe???

41. Scherzer $15M/1 NOPE

Gone:

Tier 1

1. Tucker $240/4 (est $400/11) Never on Sox radar

2. Bichette $126M/3 (est $208M/8) NOPE (too much $$$)

3. Cease $210M/7 (est $189M/7) NOPE

4. Murakami $34M/2 ($180M/8) NOPE

5. Bregman $175M/5 ($160M/6) $45M more than Ranger

7. Imai $54M/3 ($150M/6) Less AAV than Ranger, but better? (No)

9. Schwarber $150M/5 ($135M/5) $20M more than Ranger

10. Ranger $130M/5 ($115M/5)

11. Alonso $155M/5 ($110M/4) $25M more than Ranger

________________________

Tier 2

12. Naylor $93M/5 ($90M/5)

13. E Diaz $69M/3 ($82M/4)

14. M King $75M/3 ($80M/4)

15. D  Williams $51M/3 ($68M/4)

16. Okamoto $60M/4 ($64M/5) Only one from tier 2 I'd consider.

_______________________

Tier 3

18. R Suarez $45M/3 ($48M/3) NOPE

19. Polanco $40M/2 ($42M/3) Was affordable for BOS

21. M Kelly $40M/2 ($36M/2) Was affordable, but we filled SP need.

24. H-S Kim $20M/1 ($30M/2) Was affordable and can play 2B.

25. Realmuto $45M/3 ($30M/2) Not really a fit for BOS at $15M AAV

______________________

Tier 4

22. Brad Keller $22M/2 ($36M/3)

26. O'Hearn $29M/3 ($26M/2)

28. R Iglesias $16M/1 ($26M/2)

31. Helsley $28M/2 ($24M/2)

33. Ponce $30M/3 ($22M/2)

34. Finnegan $19M/2 ($20M/2)/ 35. Weaver $22M/2 ($18M/2)/36. T Rogers $37M/3 ($18M/2)/37. Fairbanks $13M/1 ($18M/2)/ 38. G Soto $8M/1 ($16M/2), 39. Pagan $20M/2 ($16M/2), 40. Mahle $10M/1 ($15M/1)

42. Caratini ($14M/2)/ 43. W Castro ($14M/2)

Yaz $23M/2,  Houser $22M/2, Matz $15M/2, DJansen $14M/2, K Jansen & Maton, $13M/1 D May,  $11M/1, Kay $12M/2, $10M/1 Eflin & A Garcia, $8M/1 Lorenzen, $7M/1 J Bell & Mullins

 

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Mayer, Tolle, Wong & DHam

for

Keaschall, Royce Lewis & Jeffries

Would yo do this?

I'd pass.  i consider Mayer/Keaschall a wash.  Then it becomes 6 year of Tolle for 3 of Lewis and one for Jeffers.  Jeffers has huge potential, but hasn't shown any consistency.

 

ps-I wouldn't hate it.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I'd pass.  i consider Mayer/Keaschall a wash.  Then it becomes 6 year of Tolle for 3 of Lewis and one for Jeffers.  Jeffers has huge potential, but hasn't shown any consistency.

ps-I wouldn't hate it.

I think Keaschall is more of a sure bet and plays excellent 2B defense. 

I'm not sure that's enough to balance out the other part of the trade, but I think I'd say yes.

The addition of Ranger makes me feel better about trading away a future pitcher.

5 years of Ranger is a surer bet than 6 years of Tolle. (I also like Early more than Tolle, but it's close.)

[Duran Is The Man]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I think Keaschall is more of a sure bet and plays excellent 2B defense. 

I'm not sure that's enough to balance out the other part of the trade, but I think I'd say yes.

The addition of Ranger makes me feel better about trading away a future pitcher.

5 years of Ranger is a surer bet than 6 years of Tolle. (I also like Early more than Tolle, but it's close.)

you could put Keaschall at 2nd or SS. he has tremendous range.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

you could put Keaschall at 2nd or SS. he has tremendous range.

Agreed. SS would be better with Story at 2B, but Cora will need his arm broken to make it happen in 2026.

[moonslav59]

I doubt the Astros are looking to add salary during a season that does not look like a winner is in the works, but if they would....

Sox sign E Suarez to $24M x 3 with deferrals that make the AAV $18M.

Sox trade Bello ($9M AAV) Hicks ($10M AAV) + $4M for Paredes ($9M) & Sousa ($1M)

The Sox save $7M, which allows the E Suarez signing and staying under line 3.

1. L Anthony LF

2. R Paredes 2B

3. L Duran DH

4. R Contreras 1B

5. R Suarez 3B

6. L Abreu RF

7. R Story SS

8. R Narvaez C

9. R Rafaela CF

Bench: Wong, Mayer, Campbell, DHam/Masa

[Duran Is The Man]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I doubt the Astros are looking to add salary during a season that does not look like a winner is in the works, but if they would....

Sox sign E Suarez to $24M x 3 with deferrals that make the AAV $18M.

Sox trade Bello ($9M AAV) Hicks ($10M AAV) + $4M for Paredes ($9M) & Sousa ($1M)

The Sox save $7M, which allows the E Suarez signing and staying under line 3.

1. L Anthony LF

2. R Paredes 2B

3. L Duran DH

4. R Contreras 1B

5. R Suarez 3B

6. L Abreu RF

7. R Story SS

8. R Narvaez C

9. R Rafaela CF

Bench: Wong, Mayer, Campbell, DHam/Masa

works for me.

[JoeBrady]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Bench: Wong, Mayer, Campbell, DHam/Masa

They won't make Mayer and Campbell bench players.  Campbell needs to play fulltime, and almost definitely in AAA.  I think, maybe, that we get Suarez or Paredes, but I'd bet on Mayer starting.