A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[drewski6]

56 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm fine with trying to find bargain players that will produce better than what we have, now. I welcome that. I do not see many opportunities to improve on many slots without costing more money or trade capital, but we do have a few.

1B is one, and getting Yandy could be nice, as long as we get a big power bat at 3B/2B or DH. I guess it could be SS (Story to 2B) or Catcher, but those slots are expensive to fill at the star level.

We shall see how we fill the SP2 slot, and if it is by trade, we may add to or subtract from the budget, but I do hope we don't use the budget as a reason not to improve to the best level we can under whatever budget is set or suggested.

Exactly.

[moonslav59]

There is ample reason to not believe anything this management team has said or promised, but they did talk about replacing the Devers money. Now, that's about $30M, and we may be able to spend around $45M and stay under the tax line, so on this, I'm not sure just sticking to precisely their words will be enough.

Make some nice bargain deal and spend the $45M. Add a trade that works and we could be a vastly better team in 2026.

[JoeBrady]

10 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I hope you don't mean it's a fad to hit the baseball instead of missing it. 

The pro game has trended to more all-or-nothing at the plate because of launch angle vs. more pitches that are harder than ever to connect with, like 100 mph velo and horizontal sweepers that break four feet.

The view that Toronto is an anomaly is sad, and I think instead the Jays' way will inspire or wake up other clubs to go back to the basics of baseball that lived for over a hundred years.

They won 74 in 2024.  Their 2025 Py W/L was 88-74.  Sometimes teams just get hot at the right time.

[moonslav59]

11 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I hope you don't mean it's a fad to hit the baseball instead of missing it. 

Yes, it's my new theory. LOL.

My point is, one year it's a strong pen, then it's all about launch angles and spin rates, because the team that just won focused on "fill in the blank."

Of course, the idea looks great on paper, but so did the year before's and the one before that.

We aren't going to remake the whole team in Toronto's image (or LA's) because for one thing, JH won't spend that much, and for another thing we have a different batting coach and strategy that giving up on means the current braintrust would have to admit they were wrong. That ain't happening!

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

They won 74 in 2024.  Their 2025 Py W/L was 88-74.  Sometimes teams just get hot at the right time.

Didn't they change their hitting approach after 2024?

Still, good point.

[UtahSox]

10 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Yoshida gets squeezed off this team, as one of suarez/alonso finds their way to dh.  Romy ends up platooning with Mayer and your an infielder short.  If an infielder emerges to have a good year out of nowhere , very strong team.

I agree I don’t think Mayer is more than a platoon player in 2026… that’s assuming he stays relatively healthy……

 

although my track record isn’t superb…  I was in Anaheim last year when Red Sox played the Angels, and was asking “isn’t there anyone more productive we could play over Anthony?” classic me.
 

I don’t get the apprehension to sign good players 31 yrs old to 5-6 year deals? Also with the conversation of next CBA focusing around floors, I think you will find places to dump salary in years to come. If we have a team to step forward right now, take the risk if Bregman and Alonso are limited in 2029 the Pirates will take them on along with a prospect and a check. RS can’t waste Crochet, Chapman, Whitlock.

i like the idea of

SP2- Alcantara, Ryan (trade Abreu, Tolle, Perales)

SP3-adding Zac Gallen who will have QO so might look something like Bregman deal last year. 
resigning Bregman and adding either Alonso or Schwarber. I prefer Alonso. 
 

This lineup 

1b Alonso/ Casas

2b Mayer/ Romy/ Rafaela

ss Story/ Mayer

3b Bregman/ Mayer

LF Duran/ Garcia or Campbell

cF Rafaela/ Garcia or Campbell

RF Anthony/ Garcia or Campbell

DH Casas/ Yoshida/ Alonso

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

I agree I don’t think Mayer is more than a platoon player in 2026… that’s assuming he stays relatively healthy……

 

although my track record isn’t superb…  I was in Anaheim last year when Red Sox played the Angels, and was asking “isn’t there anyone more productive we could play over Anthony?” classic me.
 

I don’t get the apprehension to sign good players 31 yrs old to 5-6 year deals? Also with the conversation of next CBA focusing around floors, I think you will find places to dump salary in years to come. If we have a team to step forward right now, take the risk if Bregman and Alonso are limited in 2029 the Pirates will take them on along with a prospect and a check. RS can’t waste Crochet, Chapman, Whitlock.

i like the idea of

SP2- Alcantara, Ryan (trade Abreu, Tolle, Perales)

SP3-adding Zac Gallen who will have QO so might look something like Bregman deal last year. 
resigning Bregman and adding either Alonso or Schwarber. I prefer Alonso. 
 

This lineup 

1b Alonso/ Casas

2b Mayer/ Romy/ Rafaela

ss Story/ Mayer

3b Bregman/ Mayer

LF Duran/ Garcia or Campbell

cF Rafaela/ Garcia or Campbell

RF Anthony/ Garcia or Campbell

DH Casas/ Yoshida/ Alonso

Why Gallen?

I wouldn't want him even without the comp pick.

[UtahSox]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Why Gallen?

I wouldn't want him even without the comp pick.

Mainly cuz I watched his last start vs Dodgers. He was lights out… Now looking at his stats I get your perspective, but he still has good stuff. Maybe if you can get Suarez, Woodruff or King that might be better play.? I would definitely rather have Gallen vs Giolito though.

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, UtahSox said:

Mainly cuz I watched his last start vs Dodgers. He was lights out… Now looking at his stats I get your perspective, but he still has good stuff. Maybe if you can get Suarez, Woodruff or King that might be better play.? I would definitely rather have Gallen vs Giolito though.

It's a dice roll with either Gio or Gaalen, and I'm sick and tired of the dice always coming up snake eyes.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It's a dice roll with either Gio or Gaalen, and I'm sick and tired of the dice always coming up snake eyes.

Gallen was a TOTR guy a few years ago, but his stuff hasn't been the same for a while now. He is not worth the QO and probably doesn't have #2 upside anymore. He can still give you innings, but is more like a 2 WAR guy going forward. We want a guy that is better than Bello and Gallen is probably about Bello's level TBH. 

[drewski6]

Notin (and others), like a convo ive had with moon in the past, it would be one thing if I looked at our lineup and I saw a solid 1,2,3,4 (batting order) in place already and we had 2 non pitching positions to fill.  In that situation, I would be more open towards approaching the holes from a standpoint of plugging them defensively and emphasizing fit.

But when I see that last year we had Duran and Bregman in our 2,3 spots and Breg isnt here and Duran is likely to be traded (and they prob are not great hitters for the increased expectation that comes with hitting in those prime slots) ... Due to that, I approach from a standpoint of we gotta fill out, at least the top half of the lineup before we start worrying about filling up the positions.

Bregman, I get the appeal because he checks both boxes.  He may not be as good of a hitter as Schwarber, but hes not a guy who if I hate to see hitting second or third behind Anthony (as long as the other one is a blue-chip bat).

So Bregman and Schwarber, sign me up.  But only if:

We know why he looked like he was 40 yrs old after he came back last year.  He was as station to station upon his return as Casas was and it seemed like his power was zapped too.  If he was still recovering, and I knew it then, but hes fine now cuz xrays and medical opions, I give Breg 5-6 yrs with no hesitation.  But right now , Im scared because he didnt look healthy when last season concluded.

[sk7326]

For me, the Red Sox have a couple of needs

1. Another starter.  Now, if there was an amenable way to bring back Giolito that is a good place to start.  But another high floor #3 type or better is on the menu.  Between Tolle, Early, Witherspoon and (less likely) Perales, there are some possibilities in 2026 - but need more certainty for sure.  

2. Hit ball far.  We are in a more homerun centric world than ever and this team needs more.  Now, the team is not without power ... but this team not having that "hey, a 3-run homer could happen right now" threat makes its life harder compared to the very top of the league.

I kind of feel like Mayer taking SS and moving Story to 2B would be the best option for the infield, but Mayer has to like be able to play and stuff.  Bregman coming back is the best option for 3B - even on the wrong side of 30.  

[sk7326]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Notin (and others), like a convo ive had with moon in the past, it would be one thing if I looked at our lineup and I saw a solid 1,2,3,4 (batting order) in place already and we had 2 non pitching positions to fill.  In that situation, I would be more open towards approaching the holes from a standpoint of plugging them defensively and emphasizing fit.

But when I see that last year we had Duran and Bregman in our 2,3 spots and Breg isnt here and Duran is likely to be traded (and they prob are not great hitters for the increased expectation that comes with hitting in those prime slots) ... Due to that, I approach from a standpoint of we gotta fill out, at least the top half of the lineup before we start worrying about filling up the positions.

Bregman, I get the appeal because he checks both boxes.  He may not be as good of a hitter as Schwarber, but hes not a guy who if I hate to see hitting second or third behind Anthony (as long as the other one is a blue-chip bat).

So Bregman and Schwarber, sign me up.  But only if:

We know why he looked like he was 40 yrs old after he came back last year.  He was as station to station upon his return as Casas was and it seemed like his power was zapped too.  If he was still recovering, and I knew it then, but hes fine now cuz xrays and medical opions, I give Breg 5-6 yrs with no hesitation.  But right now , Im scared because he didnt look healthy when last season concluded.

I think Bregman can still be a 2-3 win player at 3B at worst for the next couple of years.  But getting somebody who can hit the ball real far is an imperative for sure.  

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

But right now , Im scared because he didnt look healthy when last season concluded.

Because he came back when he was still injured. He needs an offseason to fully recover. Will he have recurring injuries due to his age? Probably. 

[notin]

21 hours ago, drewski6 said:

I dont hate Yandy, Bregman, and a pitcher. I would trade Harrison for Yandy. Im not confident we get Bregman though.  And my concern is we trade Harrison for Yandy, pay him his 12m. Trade Duran for a #2 P making modest money. And then make another small acquisition and quietly let these guys not replace Devers money or Bregman money.

I’ve spent a fair amount of time making anti-Alonso arguments - none of which had anything to do with the Polar Bear himself (except for when I pick on how when he runs and looks like a mannequin in an earthquake).

But the pro-Alonso arguments are easy.  First of all, while expensive, he is still likely to command less money years and money than the standout 2b/3b free agents.  Also - no QO.

And let’s face it - whether you agree with me that he runs like a mannequin in an earthquake or that he runs like a penguin on cocaine, these are fun things to watch in both cases…

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

I’ve spent a fair amount of time making anti-Alonso arguments - none of which had anything to do with the Polar Bear himself (except for when I pick on how when he runs and looks like a mannequin in an earthquake).

But the pro-Alonso arguments are easy.  First of all, while expensive, he is still likely to command less money years and money than the standout 2b/3b free agents.  Also - no QO.

And let’s face it - whether you agree with me that he runs like a mannequin in an earthquake or that he runs like a penguin on cocaine, these are fun things to watch in both cases…

Sox save some money as they already have a Polar Bear logo on file. Could get Paws out of retirement too! 

[notin]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Sox save some money as they already have a Polar Bear logo on file. Could get Paws out of retirement too! 

I didn’t even think that!

“Pete, sign with Boston and we will name our AAA stadium after you!”

If that doesn’t clinch the deal, nothing will…

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Because he came back when he was still injured. He needs an offseason to fully recover. Will he have recurring injuries due to his age? Probably. 

If the doctors I employ tell me that hes fully recoverd, I offer him 5-6 years.  If the age related injury risk is normal for someone his age, and he doesnt have like this super-high chance of reinjury becasue it will never fully heal, fine.  But if its something hes going to have to manage and monitor and can creep back in becasue its as healed as its gonna get but not completely and theres a lot of extra risk (beyond just paying someone into their 30s), I pause.

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, notin said:

I’ve spent a fair amount of time making anti-Alonso arguments - none of which had anything to do with the Polar Bear himself (except for when I pick on how when he runs and looks like a mannequin in an earthquake).

But the pro-Alonso arguments are easy.  First of all, while expensive, he is still likely to command less money years and money than the standout 2b/3b free agents.  Also - no QO.

And let’s face it - whether you agree with me that he runs like a mannequin in an earthquake or that he runs like a penguin on cocaine, these are fun things to watch in both cases…

I would be okay with replacing the RS vs Blue Jays games with a foot race between ALonso and Kirk.  They'll try to sub in Vlad for Kirk and be like "well...." and they'll prob have a point , but I mean, Vlad smokes Alonso in a foot race so thats a suckers bet.

Gotta be Kirk vs Alonso in a foot race.

Also dont have to face Vlad this way.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, sk7326 said:

I think Bregman can still be a 2-3 win player at 3B at worst for the next couple of years.  But getting somebody who can hit the ball real far is an imperative for sure.  

With JH, I doubt we can bring Breggie back and pay for a bigger bat, too.

[moonslav59]

MLB.com has these contract projections:

$27.5M x 4 Alonso

$27M x 7 Cease

$27M x 5 Schwarber

$26.7M x 6 Bregman

$26M x 8 Bichette

$25M x 6 Imai

$23M x 5 Ranger Suarez

$22.5M x 8 Murakami

$22.5M x 1 Torres

$22M x 3 Woodruff

$21M x 3 E Suarez

$20M x 4 M King & Gallen

$18M x 5 Naylor

$18M x 2 M Kelly

$16M x 4 Okamoto

$16M x 3 Robert Suarez

$16M x 2 Giolito

$15M x 2 H-S Kim & realmuto

$14M x 3 Polanco

$13M x 3 O'Hearn

12.5M x 2 N Martinez

$12M x 2 Arraez & Littell

$7M x 2 Caratini & Willi Castro

No trades...

At $47M: 21 E Suarez, 14 Polanco & 12 N Martinez

[mvp 78]

Woodruff @ 3/66 is right in my wheelhouse. I'm signing him today. 

[moonslav59]

15 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Woodruff @ 3/66 is right in my wheelhouse. I'm signing him today. 

3 years is something JH might agree to, as well. Kt's the logical next step over 2 for Gio and Sandoval.

Baby steps.

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Woodruff @ 3/66 is right in my wheelhouse. I'm signing him today. 

Bloom avoids that deal because of the attached QO.  Think Breslow follows suit?

[moonslav59]

The 13 QO's Given:

• Kyle Tucker, OF, Cubs
• Kyle Schwarber, OF/DH, Phillies
• Bo Bichette, SS/2B, Blue Jays
• Framber Valdez, LHP, Astros
• Dylan Cease, RHP, Padres
• Ranger Suarez, LHP, Phillies
• Edwin Diaz, RHP, Mets
• Zac Gallen, RHP, D-backs
• Shota Imanaga, LHP, Cubs
• Michael King, RHP, Padres
• Trent Grisham, OF, Yankees
• Gleyber Torres, 2B, Tigers
• Brandon Woodruff, RHP, Brewers

MLBTR's top players w/o QO:

4. Murakami

5. Bregman

7. Imai

8. Bellinger

11. Alonso, 12. Naylor

16. D Williams

19. Okamoto

20. E Suarez

Selected: 23. Polanco, 25. M Kelly, 27. Giolito

 

[vegasbob]

IMO, Breslow cannot build the roster to rely on the reappearance of 2 players:  K. Campbell and T. Casas.  

Build the roster as if they will both be in Worcester at best or otherwise moved along in bigger deals for pitching.

Both of these two need to show up at ST in mid February and earn a position on the 26, or in Casas case get stashed on the 60 day to wait and see.     Neither can benefit from being a bench player.   Campbell is in no position right now to displace another starter or even the Sogard, Eaton, Hamilton bench, and certainly not in the face of the OF + Yoshi logjam .     Casas if healthy (lol) , at least , ahs a shot at position of need .

So  do the FA signings and or trades and then send these 2 a ticket to Ft. Myers to see what they can contribute.    

[moonslav59]

13 minutes ago, vegasbob said:

IMO, Breslow cannot build the roster to rely on the reappearance of 2 players:  K. Campbell and T. Casas.  Build the roster as if they will both be in Worcester at best or otherwise moved along in bigger deals for pitching.

Exactly, and if Casas proves himself, he can challenge Yoshida for the DH slot. (Another player that should have to earn a slot, but instead will be handed the DH slot before ST'ing starts.

Campbell needs to find a position. I'm not sure he plays good enough defense to be a multi-position utility guy. He could also challenge Yoshida at DH. Depending on who our 1Bman is, he may challenge there, too- along with Casas, but he should not and will not be just handed a FT slot. His best position might be DH, then LF and maybe 3rd at 1B. His 2B ship might have sailed.

[moonslav59]

I know I'm repeating myself, but I really think trading for a #2 is the best path forward, and then spend to the max JH allows on adding bats. I'd prefer 2 mega bats to 3 pretty good ones or 3 pretty good ones to 4 decent ones.

I figure the first tax line is about $45M and the second one is $65M away. The quality sharply increases when you divide these two numbers by 2 or 3. (I'm not going 4, unless there is a little left over to sign someone like Matz.)

Using AAV numbers and fangraphs' estimates, here are some ideas I like or might like:

At $45-48M:

2 Players....

28 Schwarber + 20 Suarez

28 Schwarber + 16 Okamoto

or

27 Alonso + 20 Suarez (or 22 Torres)

 

3 Players...

20 Suarez, 14 Polanco + 12 O'Hearn (0r 8 Hoskins)

20 Suarez, 16 Okamoto + 8 Fairbanks

16 Okamoto, 15 H-S Kim +14 Polanco

 

[UtahSox]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I know I'm repeating myself, but I really think trading for a #2 is the best path forward, and then spend to the max JH allows on adding bats. I'd prefer 2 mega bats to 3 pretty good ones or 3 pretty good ones to 4 decent ones.

I figure the first tax line is about $45M and the second one is $65M away. The quality sharply increases when you divide these two numbers by 2 or 3. (I'm not going 4, unless there is a little left over to sign someone like Matz.)

Using AAV numbers and fangraphs' estimates, here are some ideas I like or might like:

At $45-48M:

2 Players....

28 Schwarber + 20 Suarez

28 Schwarber + 16 Okamoto

or

27 Alonso + 20 Suarez (or 22 Torres)

 

3 Players...

20 Suarez, 14 Polanco + 12 O'Hearn (0r 8 Hoskins)

20 Suarez, 16 Okamoto + 8 Fairbanks

16 Okamoto, 15 H-S Kim +14 Polanco

 

I agree… I came across this stat on #4 hitters in MLB in 2025… our production wasn’t good enough. Suarez/ Alonso is probably best realistic option. Then trade Duran + young Pitcher or 2 for a #2 SP. Then hope like hell Bello & 1 other arm takes massive step forward. 

[moonslav59]

It was odd that our 4 slot had a worse OPS than 5, 6, 7 & 9. Only the 8 slot was worse at .617.

Story led the team in PAs up 4th and did well.

(14 different players were slotted 4th to start a game!)

PAs 4th Player OPS

199 Story .815

118 Narvaez .762

75 Abreu .506 

63 Ref .874

55 Yoshida .713

53 Casas .551

53 K C .404

42 Romy .365

We gotta do better. The 2 and 4 slots are key.