A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[Hitch]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I know I'm repeating myself, but I really think trading for a #2 is the best path forward, and then spend to the max JH allows on adding bats. I'd prefer 2 mega bats to 3 pretty good ones or 3 pretty good ones to 4 decent ones.

 

I think some iteration of above is what's going to happen. I'll be shocked if we sign a free agent pitcher. It'll come in the trade and then money put on the lineup, with the possibility of an additional trade. 

[notin]

5 hours ago, Hitch said:

I think some iteration of above is what's going to happen. I'll be shocked if we sign a free agent pitcher. It'll come in the trade and then money put on the lineup, with the possibility of an additional trade. 

Sign Polar Pete Alonso

Trade LHP Brandon Clarke (BA #81) and INF Mikey Romero to St. Louis for 2b Brendan Donovan. (Fair trade on BTV)

Trade

Boston gets: RHSP Joe Ryan, C Ryan Jeffers

Minn gets: RHP Andrew Painter, CF Justin Crawford

Philly gets: CF Jarren Duran

(BTV calls this Major Overpay by Boston)

Thoughts?

[moonslav59]

6 hours ago, Hitch said:

I think some iteration of above is what's going to happen. I'll be shocked if we sign a free agent pitcher. It'll come in the trade and then money put on the lineup, with the possibility of an additional trade. 

We have enough depth and flexible position players to make two significant trades, but I think Brez & Co are stubborn on future assets.

Duran seems like the obvious first trade. His 3 years of control still is part of the "future," but with Anthony, Abreu and Rafaela (plus RHBs Campbell & Garcia) it makes sense to deal him.

The next trade becomes more complicated. We could offer one of those RHBs Campbell or Garca, but that may be selling low. We have 8-9 pitchers who would be #2s to #5's on most teams, and while 2025 showed the importance of rotation depth, I think we can and should add one SP'er from Crawford, Harrison, Dobbins, Fitts, Perales or for the right return Early or Tolle. Others like Clarke, Valera, Fajardo and the draftees might be selling low, but if one is demanded, I'd consider it. Adding prospects like Arias seems dangerous, as we are thin in infield depth and future outlooks. Gonzales has too much upside compared to his trade value. Romero, DHam and Sogard are not moving anyone's needle. The second trade is a tough one.

It would be easier for JH to just allow us to spend to the second line and make one big trade- perhaps bigger than we expect.

 

[Hitch]

3 hours ago, notin said:

Sign Polar Pete Alonso

Trade LHP Brandon Clarke (BA #81) and INF Mikey Romero to St. Louis for 2b Brendan Donovan. (Fair trade on BTV)

Trade

Boston gets: RHSP Joe Ryan, C Ryan Jeffers

Minn gets: RHP Andrew Painter, CF Justin Crawford

Philly gets: CF Jarren Duran

(BTV calls this Major Overpay by Boston)

Thoughts?

I like it, I think. Bit annoying that Donovan bats leftie though.

I'm struggling to see why that Ryan trade is a major overpay for Boston, though? I'd do that all day! 

Interestingly, Andy McCullough is proposing that Alonso doesn't have the market we all think he does - he's a year older from when he couldn't get a long term.deal last year, and while he had a good year, it's not like he showed anything that's changed anyone's mind on what he can do (McCullough's words).

Interesting take. I wonder if it's a case of waiting out Alonso, ala JD in '18.

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

We have enough depth and flexible position players to make two significant trades, but I think Brez & Co are stubborn on future assets.

Duran seems like the obvious first trade. His 3 years of control still is part of the "future," but with Anthony, Abreu and Rafaela (plus RHBs Campbell & Garcia) it makes sense to deal him.

The next trade becomes more complicated. We could offer one of those RHBs Campbell or Garca, but that may be selling low. We have 8-9 pitchers who would be #2s to #5's on most teams, and while 2025 showed the importance of rotation depth, I think we can and should add one SP'er from Crawford, Harrison, Dobbins, Fitts, Perales or for the right return Early or Tolle. Others like Clarke, Valera, Fajardo and the draftees might be selling low, but if one is demanded, I'd consider it. Adding prospects like Arias seems dangerous, as we are thin in infield depth and future outlooks. Gonzales has too much upside compared to his trade value. Romero, DHam and Sogard are not moving anyone's needle. The second trade is a tough one.

It would be easier for JH to just allow us to spend to the second line and make one big trade- perhaps bigger than we expect.

 

I think Bres is less precious than you might think. He's made a series of trades of prospects, though admittedly a good few were rule 5 guys that weren't getting added.

I'd like to see us move Campbell if the league still values him highly. Outside of left field, I don't see him having a position defensively, and even then, we're guessing he can play there. And his bat still has a lot to prove too. Let him figure it out somewhere else if we can get good value.

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, notin said:

Sign Polar Pete Alonso

Trade LHP Brandon Clarke (BA #81) and INF Mikey Romero to St. Louis for 2b Brendan Donovan. (Fair trade on BTV)

Trade

Boston gets: RHSP Joe Ryan, C Ryan Jeffers

Minn gets: RHP Andrew Painter, CF Justin Crawford

Philly gets: CF Jarren Duran

(BTV calls this Major Overpay by Boston)

Thoughts?

I'd do this.

We'd have enough money to sign someone else, so I might prefer signing Torres or Polanco over the Donovan trade, or just sign M Kelly or Suarez (3B/DH/1B w Alonso to DH)

[moonslav59]

If we did trade for Yandy and B Lowe, which would save a ton of money over an Alonso signing, then maybe we could afford Schwarber or Bregman. If we went to the second line, we could afford both, but no way JH does this.

IMO, if we go to the second line, one of the major deals will be a one year signing, so we can reset the tax in 2027 (which would be year 3 with major penalties.)

I'm not sure who this winter's Bregman will be, but I have read maybe Gleyber Torres. I'm wondering if Polanco might want to prove 2025 was no fluke, have another big season in a hitting friendly park and then go for more money in 2027. Maybe we'd just trade for Yandy and a solid #2 SP'er, then sign Bregman or Suarez at 3B (multi year) and Torres or Polanco at 2B (1 year)

1. L Anthony LF

2. R Y Diaz 1B

3. S Polanco 2B (L Mayer)

4. R Bregman 3B (L Mayer)

5. L Abreu RF

6. R Story SS (L Mayer)

7. L Yoshida/ R Romy DH

8. R Narvaez C

9. R Rafaela CF

Bench: Wong, Mayer, Romy, Eaton 

(Duran, Sandlin & DHam traded)

SP: Crochet, Ryan/Lodolo, Bello, Sandoval, Dobbins/Early/Tolle/Harrison/Perales/Crawford/Fitts/Criswell

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Crawford, Fitts, Bernardino, Hicks/Criswell/Wink/Murphy/Kelly/converted SP'ers

 

[moonslav59]

23 hours ago, Hitch said:

I think Bres is less precious than you might think. He's made a series of trades of prospects, though admittedly a good few were rule 5 guys that weren't getting added.

I'd like to see us move Campbell if the league still values him highly. Outside of left field, I don't see him having a position defensively, and even then, we're guessing he can play there. And his bat still has a lot to prove too. Let him figure it out somewhere else if we can get good value.

I like Brez a lot, despite some mistakes, and the mistake trades he made had merit when made. I'll leave it at that. Some of his FA signings have been horrible, and when you try to go short on SP'ers, you get what you expect. (Hell, evenmost long deals have bad track records, too.) He's made some very good to brilliant trades and signings, and I think they outweigh the bad ones, but overall he has not been superb.

I've mentioned trading KC, too. I don't think his stock fell by as much as some seem to think based on a couple bad months in his rookie season, but I do worry about "selling low" on him. I do feel like we have to move beyond the "worry" and make some tough choices. I worry about trading Duran or Abreu, too. I think back to the Sale and Priester trades, but we can't let some bad trades put up a barrier to being bold, this coming winter.

I really respect the idea of building a strong farm and letting it play out, but when you get to an open window like this one, which may be 3-5+ years long, I think trading some (NOT MOST) of the future for the now is called for. I also want to point out that trading for the "now" doesn't have to be and should not be trading for one and done stars like maybe Skubal. I'd prefer trading for 3+ years of controlled players, but 2 years, like Ryan or Lodolo and trying hard to extend them is fine by me.

I'd look at making 2 big trades and 2 big signings, but 3 mega deals would be fine, too.

Trade Duran for Lodolo. (If we have to include DHam or sandlin, fine.)

Trade Campbell and someone like Crawford, Fitts, Harrison or even a better and younger pitcher for Ryan is another option. Doing both would be great, but only if we sign 2 big bats. Trading this sort of package for K Marte may work, too.

[moonslav59]

Major returning players from significant lost time due to injury:

(I may have missed some key players)

NYY: Cole, Stanton, O Cab, L Gil, Schmidt (TJS may miss much of '26)

BOS: Anthony, Mayer, Crawford, Casas, Dobbins, Sandoval, Slaten, Abreu (Houck should miss all of '26)

TOR: Manoah, Bichett, Varsho, A Bastardo (TJS) J Garcia & N Sandlin

 

 

[Hitch]

48 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I like Brez a lot, despite some mistakes, and the mistake trades he made had merit when made. I'll leave it at that. Some of his FA signings have been horrible, and when you try to go short on SP'ers, you get what you expect. (Hell, evenmost long deals have bad track records, too.) He's made some very good to brilliant trades and signings, and I think they outweigh the bad ones, but overall he has not been superb.

I've mentioned trading KC, too. I don't think his stock fell by as much as some seem to think based on a couple bad months in his rookie season, but I do worry about "selling low" on him. I do feel like we have to move beyond the "worry" and make some tough choices. I worry about trading Duran or Abreu, too. I think back to the Sale and Priester trades, but we can't let some bad trades put up a barrier to being bold, this coming winter.

I really respect the idea of building a strong farm and letting it play out, but when you get to an open window like this one, which may be 3-5+ years long, I think trading some (NOT MOST) of the future for the now is called for. I also want to point out that trading for the "now" doesn't have to be and should not be trading for one and done stars like maybe Skubal. I'd prefer trading for 3+ years of controlled players, but 2 years, like Ryan or Lodolo and trying hard to extend them is fine by me.

I'd look at making 2 big trades and 2 big signings, but 3 mega deals would be fine, too.

Trade Duran for Lodolo. (If we have to include DHam or sandlin, fine.)

Trade Campbell and someone like Crawford, Fitts, Harrison or even a better and younger pitcher for Ryan is another option. Doing both would be great, but only if we sign 2 big bats. Trading this sort of package for K Marte may work, too.

I don't think there is much chance of 2 big signings. I think it will be 1 biggie, 1 cheaper option, and one trade/a couple of trades. 

Yeah I wouldn't just give Campbell away, but if you're right that the league sees him higher than myself (I'm not sure they do, but he's a hard one to judge), if we can send him for other needs I would do it ASAP. $7.5m off the tax isn't huge, but it's not nothing, and he has no position. 

Where has this Marte talk come from? Has there been any talk the Diamondbacks want to trade him? $20m on the luxury tax is a meaty hit when it comes to our finances, too. If we get him, don't expect a big FA signing. 

Lodolo is another I see having little chance of getting moved...Ryan feels more and more the most likely, and it'll take prospects, not Duran to get him.

[Hitch]

And agreed, now is the time to spend some prosect capital. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

I don't think there is much chance of 2 big signings. I think it will be 1 biggie, 1 cheaper option, and one trade/a couple of trades. 

Yeah I wouldn't just give Campbell away, but if you're right that the league sees him higher than myself (I'm not sure they do, but he's a hard one to judge), if we can send him for other needs I would do it ASAP. $7.5m off the tax isn't huge, but it's not nothing, and he has no position. 

Where has this Marte talk come from? Has there been any talk the Diamondbacks want to trade him? $20m on the luxury tax is a meaty hit when it comes to our finances, too. If we get him, don't expect a big FA signing. 

Lodolo is another I see having little chance of getting moved...Ryan feels more and more the most likely, and it'll take prospects, not Duran to get him.

I doubt we sign two biggies, too, but if we are allowed to go near or over the tax line, the money is there to do it. One long and one short might be the best we can hope for.

Add one big trade and getting 3 is possible, although not likely.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Hitch said:

I don't think there is much chance of 2 big signings. I think it will be 1 biggie, 1 cheaper option, and one trade/a couple of trades. 

Yeah I wouldn't just give Campbell away, but if you're right that the league sees him higher than myself (I'm not sure they do, but he's a hard one to judge), if we can send him for other needs I would do it ASAP. $7.5m off the tax isn't huge, but it's not nothing, and he has no position. 

Where has this Marte talk come from? Has there been any talk the Diamondbacks want to trade him? $20m on the luxury tax is a meaty hit when it comes to our finances, too. If we get him, don't expect a big FA signing. 

Lodolo is another I see having little chance of getting moved...Ryan feels more and more the most likely, and it'll take prospects, not Duran to get him.

No talk on K Marte. I just mentioned him as the type of trade we can look at.

Yes, KMarte makes a lot, but make sure to subtract the $7.5M KC AAV and it becomes more reasonable. Duran makes $7.7M. Who goes to AZ might lower the AAV hit. (Including Hicks would be great.)

[notin]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Major returning players from significant lost time due to injury:

(I may have missed some key players)

NYY: Cole, Stanton, O Cab, L Gil, Schmidt (TJS may miss much of '26)

BOS: Anthony, Mayer, Crawford, Casas, Dobbins, Sandoval, Slaten, Abreu (Houck should miss all of '26)

TOR: Manoah, Bichett, Varsho, A Bastardo (TJS) J Garcia & N Sandlin

 

 

Manoah is with the Braves organization….

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, notin said:

Manoah is with the Braves organization….

Hmmm, I git the names from an article.

[oldtimer]

On 11/8/2025 at 11:56 AM, moonslav59 said:

We have enough depth and flexible position players to make two significant trades, but I think Brez & Co are stubborn on future assets.

Duran seems like the obvious first trade. His 3 years of control still is part of the "future," but with Anthony, Abreu and Rafaela (plus RHBs Campbell & Garcia) it makes sense to deal him.

The next trade becomes more complicated. We could offer one of those RHBs Campbell or Garca, but that may be selling low. We have 8-9 pitchers who would be #2s to #5's on most teams, and while 2025 showed the importance of rotation depth, I think we can and should add one SP'er from Crawford, Harrison, Dobbins, Fitts, Perales or for the right return Early or Tolle. Others like Clarke, Valera, Fajardo and the draftees might be selling low, but if one is demanded, I'd consider it. Adding prospects like Arias seems dangerous, as we are thin in infield depth and future outlooks. Gonzales has too much upside compared to his trade value. Romero, DHam and Sogard are not moving anyone's needle. The second trade is a tough one.

It would be easier for JH to just allow us to spend to the second line and make one big trade- perhaps bigger than we expect.

 

 I agree that Duran has trade value and is likely to be package with propects to land a #2 starter, a big need.

Both Mayer and Casas have a high injury risk factor although Mayer is probably going to start at 3rd or 2nd. If we want to lower the risk with a FA power back and part ways with Casas, we'd be selling low. It's a tough decision for the Sox.

Yoshida may have more value to another team than for us. Packaging him with a prospect or eating part of his contract would open the DH slot, where we could pick up a FA power bat.

The Winter meetings are coming soon so we will get a reading on the front office aggressivness.

[Randy Red Sox]

55 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

 I agree that Duran has trade value and is likely to be package with propects to land a #2 starter, a big need.

Both Mayer and Casas have a high injury risk factor although Mayer is probably going to start at 3rd or 2nd. If we want to lower the risk with a FA power back and part ways with Casas, we'd be selling low. It's a tough decision for the Sox.

Yoshida may have more value to another team than for us. Packaging him with a prospect or eating part of his contract would open the DH slot, where we could pick up a FA power bat.

The Winter meetings are coming soon so we will get a reading on the front office aggressivness.

nothing substantial is going to happen for at least a month so all this talk is nothing but fodder

[moonslav59]

59 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

Yoshida may have more value to another team than for us. Packaging him with a prospect or eating part of his contract would open the DH slot, where we could pick up a FA power bat.

Maybe more value elsewhere but it would be like worth $5-7M to another team and $4-5M to us. Since he's owed $18M x 2, we'd have to pay $11-14M a year or give up a prospect or player worth about that much. 

I'd do it, if we could find a taker. I'm not sure how much BTV says Fitts or Crawford is worth, but I id give one and might give both plus Yoshida for nothing. Maybe Fitts, Sandlin and Yoshina for bonus pool money or a comp pick.

Next, I'd look to do the same with Hicks. If we could free up more budget space, maybe we could get 2 big boppers.

[Larry Cook]

On 11/7/2025 at 1:47 PM, mvp 78 said:

Woodruff @ 3/66 is right in my wheelhouse. I'm signing him today. 

Didn’t he get a qualifying offer? 

[Hitch]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Maybe more value elsewhere but it would be like worth $5-7M to another team and $4-5M to us. Since he's owed $18M x 2, we'd have to pay $11-14M a year or give up a prospect or player worth about that much. 

I'd do it, if we could find a taker. I'm not sure how much BTV says Fitts or Crawford is worth, but I id give one and might give both plus Yoshida for nothing. Maybe Fitts, Sandlin and Yoshina for bonus pool money or a comp pick.

Next, I'd look to do the same with Hicks. If we could free up more budget space, maybe we could get 2 big boppers.

As long as it doesn't sting to badly, I'd happily give away a prospect to get Yoshida off the books (assuming that opens up Schwarber to us). The problem is, I don't think there's a single team that absorbs that contract without it being an excellent prospect. 

[mvp 78]

On 11/8/2025 at 10:00 AM, notin said:

Sign Polar Pete Alonso

Trade LHP Brandon Clarke (BA #81) and INF Mikey Romero to St. Louis for 2b Brendan Donovan. (Fair trade on BTV)

Trade

Boston gets: RHSP Joe Ryan, C Ryan Jeffers

Minn gets: RHP Andrew Painter, CF Justin Crawford

Philly gets: CF Jarren Duran

(BTV calls this Major Overpay by Boston)

Thoughts?

DD said he's not trading Painter, but I'm fine with these moves.

[moonslav59]

9 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Didn’t he get a qualifying offer? 

Yes, so we will likely pass.

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, Hitch said:

As long as it doesn't sting to badly, I'd happily give away a prospect to get Yoshida off the books (assuming that opens up Schwarber to us). The problem is, I don't think there's a single team that absorbs that contract without it being an excellent prospect. 

How excellent? Arias? Clarke + ____? Sandlin + Cespedes & Romero?

BTV says Yoshida is -25.2, which jives with my estimate that we'd have to pay about $25M out of $38M owed to break even. That means we'd have to add $25M in prospect value. According to BTV:

I'd avoid these....

29.5 Early

25.4 K Campbell

22.5 Tolle+ 2.4 Mullins

22.3 Arias + 3.3 Paez

Maybe... (only if it helps us get 2 big boppers)

16.2 Clarke + 9.3 Cespedes or 8.3 Romero

17.7 Witherspoon + 8.3 Romero

16.1 Jh Garcia + 9.5 Harrison

Yes...

16.1 Jh Garcia + 8.3 Romero or 9.3 Cespedes

11.6 Perales + 9.3 Cespedes + 3.3 Paez/5.5 Eyanson

 

[moonslav59]

Anybody know what BTV give Sandlin for trade value?

[notin]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Hmmm, I git the names from an article.

Toronto put him on waivers in late September . Atlanta claimed him Sept. 26, per his B-R page.  Possible that article was written previously…

[notin]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Anybody know what BTV give Sandlin for trade value?

$5.5mill

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

Toronto put him on waivers in late September . Atlanta claimed him Sept. 26, per his B-R page.  Possible that article was written previously…

Thanks...

So Yoshida + Perales + Cespedes + Sandlin for nothing.

We save $18M on the tax line and can then easily sign two big contracts. Not that JH will allow it, but maybe if one is a 1-2 year deal, he'd agree.

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

DD said he's not trading Painter, but I'm fine with these moves.

BTV has since updated their values to where a simple 3 way trade works.

Philly gets Duran ($49.5mill)

Boston gets Ryan ($52.5mill)

Minnesota gets Aiden Miller ($48.3mill)

Not sure Philly is keen on trading Miller, either. Especially since they are reportedly trying to move Alec Bohm, which I assume is to clear a path for Miller.  But after Painter (now at $52mill) and Miller, Philly has a serious drop off in prospect value to the point where it might take them out of the running for Duran. 
 

Unless Minnesota likes their second tier prospects a lot.  But given how tough they have been in previous Ryan talks, this feels unlikely…

[notin]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Thanks...

So Yoshida + Perales + Cespedes + Sandlin for nothing.

We save $18M on the tax line and can then easily sign two big contracts. Not that JH will allow it, but maybe if one is a 1-2 year deal, he'd agree.

Just DFA Yoshida at that point…

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

Just DFA Yoshida at that point…

I have to think we could pay $6-10M of the $36M owed and at least save $3M a year.