A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[notin]

On 11/10/2025 at 8:55 AM, moonslav59 said:

I have to think we could pay $6-10M of the $36M owed and at least save $3M a year.

The prospects you’re giving away have more value than that.

Olus you’d have to pay someone to replace Yoshida, which very likely exceeds his contract value of $36mill.

Yoshida has shown he can hit.  Let him start at DH (possibly platooning with Refsnyder, who should re-signed) until Casas comes back, and then revisit the situation again…

[Hitch]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

How excellent? Arias? Clarke + ____? Sandlin + Cespedes & Romero?

BTV says Yoshida is -25.2, which jives with my estimate that we'd have to pay about $25M out of $38M owed to break even. That means we'd have to add $25M in prospect value. According to BTV:

I'd avoid these....

29.5 Early

25.4 K Campbell

22.5 Tolle+ 2.4 Mullins

22.3 Arias + 3.3 Paez

Maybe... (only if it helps us get 2 big boppers)

16.2 Clarke + 9.3 Cespedes or 8.3 Romero

17.7 Witherspoon + 8.3 Romero

16.1 Jh Garcia + 9.5 Harrison

Yes...

16.1 Jh Garcia + 8.3 Romero or 9.3 Cespedes

11.6 Perales + 9.3 Cespedes + 3.3 Paez/5.5 Eyanson

 

Not sure I'd do any, apart from maybe with Campbell (I don't think a single team takes that on) as you clear 25m and free up 2 fairly useless spots and only if it's reinvested. 

All in all, feels fairly unrealistic. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

The prospects you’re giving away have more value than that.

Olus you’d have to pay someone to replace Yoshida, which very likely exceeds his contract value of $36mill.

Yoshida has shown he can hit.  Let him start at DH (possibly platooning with Refsnyder, who should never-signed) until Casas comes back, and then revisit the situation again…

To me, I don't see much of a step down replacing Yoshida with in-house solutions (like Romy) or a step up to Duran.

The idea is this: we have about $40-45M to spend and need two $30M players. Adding the $18M from Yoshida, gets us there. If we don't spend it, then don't trade Yoshida. 

Losing the prospects I mentioned only make sense if it helps us get that second big bopper. One could argue the step up to Alonso ($30M) from Suarez ($15M) is not worth trading those prospects, and they might be right.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

Not sure I'd do any, apart from maybe with Campbell (I don't think a single team takes that on) as you clear 25m and free up 2 fairly useless spots and only if it's reinvested. 

All in all, feels fairly unrealistic. 

Yes, I never do this, if we don't spend every penny of the savings on a major upgrade or two, of a $15-18M extra signing or two at $9M each.

[Hitch]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, I never do this, if we don't spend every penny of the savings on a major upgrade or two, of a $15-18M extra signing or two at $9M each.

 

Maybe you were ahead of the curve! 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Hitch said:

 

Maybe you were ahead of the curve! 

I wasn't the first to mention trading for K Marte.

Maybe, instead of trading for Ryan or Lodolo, we sign Merrill Kelly to a short deal, trade for KMarte, then sign Alonso, Schwarber or the fallback Suarez. If we get Suarez at half of what we'd get Alonso/Schwarber for, we can sign a better pitcher than Kelly. I just don't like anyone all that much to go Large and Long on.

[moonslav59]

Anthony finished third in ROY- narrowly missing an added year of service time.

Narvaez finished 5th.

Giolito says he wants to play for Sox, and claims he's fully healthy.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/11/lucas-giolito-wants-to-return-to-red-sox-says-hes-fully-healthy-after-late-season-freak-injury.html

 

[Hitch]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I wasn't the first to mention trading for K Marte.

Maybe, instead of trading for Ryan or Lodolo, we sign Merrill Kelly to a short deal, trade for KMarte, then sign Alonso, Schwarber or the fallback Suarez. If we get Suarez at half of what we'd get Alonso/Schwarber for, we can sign a better pitcher than Kelly. I just don't like anyone all that much to go Large and Long on.

The talk around Alonso is growing stronger with every day. I just hope it's not too long a deal as the guy D is not good.  

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, Hitch said:

The talk around Alonso is growing stronger with every day. I just hope it's not too long a deal as the guy D is not good.  

We almost paid Devers $30M/yr for 8 years to DH.

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We almost paid Devers $30M/yr for 8 years to DH.

It would have been worth it. Are the Sox going to give the same deal to some rando now? If so, they blew up the '25 season for nothing. 

[Hitch]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

We almost paid Devers $30M/yr for 8 years to DH.

A deal I'm glad we got out of.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

It would have been worth it. Are the Sox going to give the same deal to some rando now? If so, they blew up the '25 season for nothing. 

I agree.

I'd pay Schwarber $34M x 4.

I'd pay Alonso $32M x 5 or 6, knowing he'll DH for 3-4+ yrs.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

It would have been worth it. Are the Sox going to give the same deal to some rando now? If so, they blew up the '25 season for nothing. 

I did not like the Devers trade. At the time, I suggested the trade only works, if we spend the money and spend it wisely.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I did not like the Devers trade. At the time, I suggested the trade only works, if we spend the money and spend it wisely.

On a different DH? 🤮

[moonslav59]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

On a different DH? 🤮

I'd prefer another position, but first and foremost we need a big bopper, and the best two are Schwarber and Alonso. I've suggested a K Marte trade, signing next level boppers like Suarez and or Polanco, but I'm with Drew on having a top power bat as our #1 priority.

As much as I feel we really need a solid #2 SP'er, that is priority number 2.

The third priority is another big bat, but if we get a big bopper, I'm okay with someone without a ton of power.

[moonslav59]

Since 2019 (7 seasons, counting the short 2020 season) we have not had a single 2Bman start more than 142 games TOTAL! Only 3 players started more than 71 games over 7 seasons: Arroyo (142) Valdez (112) and Story (92).

Split Seasons:

92 Story '22

56 Holt '19 & ValdeZ '24

54 KC '25

51 Arroyo '23

45 Kiki '21

44 Valdez '23

43 Arroyo '21

42 DHam '25

40 Chavis '19

(9 players with 40+)

3 players 30-39 (12 at 30+)

7 players 20-29 (19 at 20+)

11 players 10-19 (30 at 10 games or more!)

12 players 4-0

11 players 1-3

 

First Base is nearly as bad:

Total Games in 7 Seasons:

Dalbec 221, Casas 220, Moreland 93, Chavis 69, Smith 66, Toro 57, Franchy 55, Romy 51, Turner 35, Lowe 26, Travis 20, 6 guys 10-19 and 8 guys 1-9 games.

Slit Seasons:

125 Casas '23 "The Ironman!"

123 Dalbec '23

89 Dalbec '22

85 Moreland '19

68 Toro '25

61 Casas '24

58 Romy '25

53 Franchy '22

11 players 20-49

13 players 10-19

3 at 8-9 games

2 at 2-3 games

 

These two positions have been a mess.

 

 

 

[Hitch]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Since 2019 (7 seasons, counting the short 2020 season) we have not had a single 2Bman start more than 142 games TOTAL! Only 3 players started more than 71 games over 7 seasons: Arroyo (142) Valdez (112) and Story (92).

Split Seasons:

92 Story '22

56 Holt '19 & ValdeZ '24

54 KC '25

51 Arroyo '23

45 Kiki '21

44 Valdez '23

43 Arroyo '21

42 DHam '25

40 Chavis '19

(9 players with 40+)

3 players 30-39 (12 at 30+)

7 players 20-29 (19 at 20+)

11 players 10-19 (30 at 10 games or more!)

12 players 4-0

11 players 1-3

 

First Base is nearly as bad:

Total Games in 7 Seasons:

Dalbec 221, Casas 220, Moreland 93, Chavis 69, Smith 66, Toro 57, Franchy 55, Romy 51, Turner 35, Lowe 26, Travis 20, 6 guys 10-19 and 8 guys 1-9 games.

Slit Seasons:

125 Casas '23 "The Ironman!"

123 Dalbec '23

89 Dalbec '22

85 Moreland '19

68 Toro '25

61 Casas '24

58 Romy '25

53 Franchy '22

11 players 20-49

13 players 10-19

3 at 8-9 games

2 at 2-3 games

 

These two positions have been a mess.

 

 

 

Yes they really need settling. Story at SS and Mayer at 2nd/3rd works for this year. Marte is very tempting if available even if his contract going into age 37 is a little worrying. If you got Alonso as well, it's a good looking infield for the next two years at least with some serious pop. Romy and Hamilton as back up is a good position to be in (and Casas if he's not dead).

 

 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Hitch said:

Yes they really need settling. Story at SS and Mayer at 2nd/3rd works for this year. Marte is very tempting if available even if his contract going into age 37 is a little worrying. If you got Alonso as well, it's a good looking infield for the next two years at least with some serious pop. Romy and Hamilton as back up is a good position to be in (and Casas if he's not dead).

If we got Alonso & K Marte with Mayer at 3B, I'd be fine with Story at SS. I've mentioned Story at 3B and Mayer at SS a few times, but I doubt Cora would do that. Cora probably thinks Story is the "best defensive SS in MLB," like he did with Kiki.

Signing Alonso and Suarez would greatly hurt the defense, but it might eventually lead Cora to move Story to 2B with Mayer at SS.

Either of these options would allow Romy to platoon at DH and be the back-up 1Bman, 2Bman and maybe 3Bman. DHam would be a nice back-up 2Bman, and Story or Mayer could move over to SS, if one gets hurt or has a day off. Casas would start in AAA and hopefully be the best 1B depth we've had in years.

Counting Masa as an emergency corner OF'er, we have 6 OF'ers, so one or two could be traded to upgrade the rotation.

[Hugh2]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If we got Alonso & K Marte with Mayer at 3B, I'd be fine with Story at SS. I've mentioned Story at 3B and Mayer at SS a few times, but I doubt Cora would do that. Cora probably thinks Story is the "best defensive SS in MLB," like he did with Kiki.

Signing Alonso and Suarez would greatly hurt the defense, but it might eventually lead Cora to move Story to 2B with Mayer at SS.

Either of these options would allow Romy to platoon at DH and be the back-up 1Bman, 2Bman and maybe 3Bman. DHam would be a nice back-up 2Bman, and Story or Mayer could move over to SS, if one gets hurt or has a day off. Casas would start in AAA and hopefully be the best 1B depth we've had in years.

Counting Masa as an emergency corner OF'er, we have 6 OF'ers, so one or two could be traded to upgrade the rotation.

I see people continously putting Mayer at 3B and Story at SS.   While he scouted as having plus arm strength, his arm was weaker than both Story and Bregman last year.  

I'm not against Mayer at 3rd, but I am cautious over it. 

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I see people continously putting Mayer at 3B and Story at SS.   While he scouted as having plus arm strength, his arm was weaker than both Story and Bregman last year.  

I'm not against Mayer at 3rd, but I am cautious over it. 

That's one reason I suggested Story at 3B and Mayer at SS, but arm strength is needed at SS, too.

Would you prefer Story at 3B and Mayer at SS?

[Hugh2]

46 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

That's one reason I suggested Story at 3B and Mayer at SS, but arm strength is needed at SS, too.

Would you prefer Story at 3B and Mayer at SS?

Honestly I don't know but I thnk Story could be a lot better there than people are talking about right now. 

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

I see people continously putting Mayer at 3B and Story at SS.   While he scouted as having plus arm strength, his arm was weaker than both Story and Bregman last year.  

I'm not against Mayer at 3rd, but I am cautious over it. 

Even with his "weaker arm" he had plus fielding at 3b. Story wasn't plus at SS due to his drop in range. 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

Honestly I don't know but I thnk Story could be a lot better there than people are talking about right now. 

He'd be a lot better at 2b. 

[mvp 78]

If moved to 3b, Story has better arm strength than Bregman FWIW. He's comparable to Suarez and is well outside the top 30. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Honestly I don't know but I thnk Story could be a lot better there than people are talking about right now. 

I was kinda talked out of the idea. I'm still open to the idea.

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I was kinda talked out of the idea. I'm still open to the idea.

I'm open to him playing anywhere but short. Unfortunately, the Sox are out and out saying he's the SS. I think that is to put pressure on Bregman. If they said "Story is going to play 2B and Mayer will play SS," Breggie would have a little more leverage. For now, they can say "we're ready to go with Mayer as the 3b if necessary." 

[notin]

On 11/10/2025 at 9:57 PM, moonslav59 said:

Anthony finished third in ROY- narrowly missing an added year of service time.

Narvaez finished 5th.

Giolito says he wants to play for Sox, and claims he's fully healthy.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/11/lucas-giolito-wants-to-return-to-red-sox-says-hes-fully-healthy-after-late-season-freak-injury.html

 

Anthony’s service time is a moot point, since he signed an extension…

[notin]

16 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm open to him playing anywhere but short. Unfortunately, the Sox are out and out saying he's the SS. I think that is to put pressure on Bregman. If they said "Story is going to play 2B and Mayer will play SS," Breggie would have a little more leverage. For now, they can say "we're ready to go with Mayer as the 3b if necessary." 

Bregman’s leverage will come from competing offers regardless of where Mayer plays.  Especially since Bregman himself has never insisted on it being 3b or bust…

[notin]

On 11/10/2025 at 11:10 AM, Hitch said:

Not sure I'd do any, apart from maybe with Campbell (I don't think a single team takes that on) as you clear 25m and free up 2 fairly useless spots and only if it's reinvested. 

All in all, feels fairly unrealistic. 

Using Campbell to offset Yoshida works on BTV, but any team taking that on is still commited to $86mill for those two players…

[Hitch]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Using Campbell to offset Yoshida works on BTV, but any team taking that on is still commited to $86mill for those two players…

I'd do that deal all day, but yeah, I don't think anyone is taking on that cash.

It's really hard to judge how teams would see Campbell right now. There's still the minor player of the year sheen there, but they will have the same scouting reports that we see...