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Posted
21 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Well, if Casas, Breggie, Abreu and Anthony were healthy in 2025, they'd have been good, too.

Why do we keep praying on excellent health, instead of trying to significantly improve the team from year to year?

Even really good teams often look to improve.

The idea should be to move towards great.

We lost Devers. We gained half an Anthony. Maybe Hoskins keeps us at middle tier on O.

The Sox were a good team last year despite deploying Toro/Gonzalez at 1b and Campbell’s/Hamilton at 2b and getting sub-.700 OPS from both position.  Also with Yoshida sitting out the bulk of the year and then getting off to a slow start before finally heating up in September.  And then there were the injuries.

Brining back Bregman, getting a full season of Mayer (likely in a platoon), getting a full season of Yoshida, and then upgrading at 1b over career AAAA bat Toro does represent an improvement.  Sure they cannot bank on health, but they also cannot bank on any new free agent being healthy either.

Not to mention the offense wasn’t so incompetent that it needs an overhaul.  And reportedly they want to add a frontline pitching arm…

Posted
1 hour ago, notin said:

The Sox were a good team last year despite deploying Toro/Gonzalez at 1b and Campbell’s/Hamilton at 2b and getting sub-.700 OPS from both position.  Also with Yoshida sitting out the bulk of the year and then getting off to a slow start before finally heating up in September.  And then there were the injuries.

Brining back Bregman, getting a full season of Mayer (likely in a platoon), getting a full season of Yoshida, and then upgrading at 1b over career AAAA bat Toro does represent an improvement.  Sure they cannot bank on health, but they also cannot bank on any new free agent being healthy either.

Not to mention the offense wasn’t so incompetent that it needs an overhaul.  And reportedly they want to add a frontline pitching arm…

Bregman is a FA. I'm for replacing him with Bregman or a slight upgrade (more on O than D, maybe.)

I'm asking for 2 big bats and one is to replace Bregman. That's not an "overhaul." I don't see Hoskins as a major upgrade over what Lowe gave us in 2025. He'll be better than Lowe in '26, but we lost with a .790 Lowe.

I'd like 3, but I've agreed to give a Mayer/Romy platoon the 2B or 3B slot. Ideally, even without Alonso or Schwarber, going with Suarez at 3B, Polanco at 2B and Hoskins or Bell at 1B would be fine with me. That is an overhaul, but 3B kinda has to be anyway.

Adding Suarez and Hoskins would be a slight improvement on paper, especially on offense, but IMO, we need a bigger upgrade to increase our chances at being a top 4-5 team and not repeat as a top 9-12 team.

Posted

Top ERA- Pitchers from 2023-2025 (450+ IP)

Only Available or possibles listed:

1. Skubal 58

3. C Sanchez 70

6. Peralta 81

7. Valdez 81

13. S Gray 88

14. Lopez 88

15. Bibee 89

18. Ryan 92

20. Gallen 93

23. Bassitt 95

25. Keller & Gore 98

28. Singer 101

30. Cease 102

Go to 350 IP, and you add Sale 68, King 74, Greene 74, M Kelly 83, R Saurez 83, N Matinez 86, Quintanna 92, Lorenzen 97

xFIP

2.71 Skubal

3.00 C Sanchez

5. S Gray 3.19

7. Valdez 3.28

11. Lopez 3.41

17. R Suarez 3.62

18. Ryan 3.63

21. Cease 3.69

We could likely get Pablo Lopez for less return than Joe Ryan.

Community Moderator
Posted
7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We could likely get Pablo Lopez for less return than Joe Ryan.

Sure, you could trade for a guy who missed half of a season with a forearm strain. You could also get him and then wind up paying for his time spent rehabbing TJS and not getting anything of value. 

Posted
4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Sure, you could trade for a guy who missed half of a season with a forearm strain. You could also get him and then wind up paying for his time spent rehabbing TJS and not getting anything of value. 

I worry about that. I read reports that he is fine, but I've heard that before.

Posted

If the Sox don't want to go long on their large deals, they may look for "show me" contracts like Bregman's 2025 signing or go for older players who won't get 4 or 5 years offered from any team. (Some may not get 3 years offered.)

Here might be some:

E Suarez 3B maybe 1B (34) May take $15M x 3.

M Kelly SP (37) May take $15M x 2

Hoskins 1B (33) May take $12M x 3 (Josh Bell $7M x 2)

In theory, we could sign all 3 and have an AAV that keeps us under the tax line. (Maybe sub Polanco at age 32 for Suarez or Hoskins.)

Others:

Ozuna DH (35) Realmuto C (35) M Rojas SS(37) Refsnyder OF/DH (35) N Martinez P (35) Bassitt P (37)

Would this roster work, if we traded Rafaela, Garcia, Clarke and Sandlin (maybe need to sub in Arias) for Ryan?

1. L Anthony CF

2. R Suarez 3B

3. L Duran LF

4. R Hoskins 1B

5. L Abreu RF

6. R Story SS

7. L Yoshida DH/ R Romy DH

8. R Narvaez C

9. L Mayer 2B

SP: Crochet, Ryan, Kelly, Bello, Sandoval

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Bernardino, Fitts, Hicks, Winckowski

 

Posted
17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

If the Sox don't want to go long on their large deals, they may look for "show me" contracts like Bregman's 2025 signing or go for older players who won't get 4 or 5 years offered from any team. (Some may not get 3 years offered.)

Here might be some:

E Suarez 3B maybe 1B (34) May take $15M x 3.

M Kelly SP (37) May take $15M x 2

Hoskins 1B (33) May take $12M x 3 (Josh Bell $7M x 2)

In theory, we could sign all 3 and have an AAV that keeps us under the tax line. (Maybe sub Polanco at age 32 for Suarez or Hoskins.)

Others:

Ozuna DH (35) Realmuto C (35) M Rojas SS(37) Refsnyder OF/DH (35) N Martinez P (35) Bassitt P (37)

Would this roster work, if we traded Rafaela, Garcia, Clarke and Sandlin (maybe need to sub in Arias) for Ryan?

1. L Anthony CF

2. R Suarez 3B

3. L Duran LF

4. R Hoskins 1B

5. L Abreu RF

6. R Story SS

7. L Yoshida DH/ R Romy DH

8. R Narvaez C

9. L Mayer 2B

SP: Crochet, Ryan, Kelly, Bello, Sandoval

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Bernardino, Fitts, Hicks, Winckowski

 

I dont love it.  Hoskins lost his job last year.  Our clean up hitter is a guy who couldnt stay in the majors last year? Granted theres good reason to think he'll do better at fenway but still.  I very much doubt he gets that money.  I think you can get him for like 5M.

I like it better if you move Romy to 2b (full time), Mayer to 3b, put hoskins in where romy is (weak side platoon only), move suarez to 1b.

Posted

Potential trade #1 - Duran and Sandlin to Philly for bohm (3B) and painter (Worcester starting pitcher) and ptbnl 

potential trade #2 - fitts, cutter, drohan and Hamilton to Atlanta for chris frail sale 

major free agent signing - naylor (1B)

resigning - relief pitcher Wilson. 
………………………………………………………………

rotation - crochet, sale, bello, Sandoval and early 

bullpen - Chapman, slaten, Whitlock, weissert, Wilson, Harrison, hicks and Bernardino (or wincowski) 

catcher - Wong and narveaz 

infield - bohm (3B), Mayer (SS), story (2B) naylor (1B) and romy and sogard as utility. 
 

outfield - Anthony (LF) rafeala (CF) abreau (RF) and Campbell as 4th outfielder 

DH - yoshida 

Worcester rotation - painter, tolle, dobbins (when healthy) Mullins and uberstine

casas starts the year on the DL and then joins Worcester full time. 

Posted
1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

I dont love it.  Hoskins lost his job last year.  Our clean up hitter is a guy who couldnt stay in the majors last year? Granted theres good reason to think he'll do better at fenway but still.  I very much doubt he gets that money.  I think you can get him for like 5M.

I like it better if you move Romy to 2b (full time), Mayer to 3b, put hoskins in where romy is (weak side platoon only), move suarez to 1b.

Maybe sub Polanco for Hoskins.

Can we get Suarez, Kelly & Polanco for $45M AAV? Maybe only by going one more year, differing money or giving the option year with buyouts.

 

1. L Anthony CF

2. S Polanco 2B

3. L Duran LF

4. R Suarez 1B

5. L Abreu RF

6. R Story SS

7. L Yoshida DH/ R Romy DH

8. R Narvaez C

9. L Mayer 3B

  •  

 

Posted
15 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Potential trade #1 - Duran and Sandlin to Philly for bohm (3B) and painter (Worcester starting pitcher) and ptbnl 

potential trade #2 - fitts, cutter, drohan and Hamilton to Atlanta for chris frail sale 

major free agent signing - naylor (1B)

resigning - relief pitcher Wilson. 
………………………………………………………………

rotation - crochet, sale, bello, Sandoval and early 

bullpen - Chapman, slaten, Whitlock, weissert, Wilson, Harrison, hicks and Bernardino (or wincowski) 

catcher - Wong and narveaz 

infield - bohm (3B), Mayer (SS), story (2B) naylor (1B) and romy and sogard as utility. 
 

outfield - Anthony (LF) rafeala (CF) abreau (RF) and Campbell as 4th outfielder 

DH - yoshida 

Worcester rotation - painter, tolle, dobbins (when healthy) Mullins and uberstine

casas starts the year on the DL and then joins Worcester full time. 

ATL does not have 3 slots on their 40.

I'd bring Matz back before Wilson.

Posted
1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

If the Sox don't want to go long on their large deals, they may look for "show me" contracts like Bregman's 2025 signing or go for older players who won't get 4 or 5 years offered from any team. (Some may not get 3 years offered.)

Here might be some:

E Suarez 3B maybe 1B (34) May take $15M x 3.

M Kelly SP (37) May take $15M x 2

Hoskins 1B (33) May take $12M x 3 (Josh Bell $7M x 2)

In theory, we could sign all 3 and have an AAV that keeps us under the tax line. (Maybe sub Polanco at age 32 for Suarez or Hoskins.)

Others:

Ozuna DH (35) Realmuto C (35) M Rojas SS(37) Refsnyder OF/DH (35) N Martinez P (35) Bassitt P (37)

Would this roster work, if we traded Rafaela, Garcia, Clarke and Sandlin (maybe need to sub in Arias) for Ryan?

1. L Anthony CF

2. R Suarez 3B

3. L Duran LF

4. R Hoskins 1B

5. L Abreu RF

6. R Story SS

7. L Yoshida DH/ R Romy DH

8. R Narvaez C9. L Mayer 2B

SP: Crochet, Ryan, Kelly, Bello, Sandoval

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Bernardino, Fitts, Hicks, Winckowski

 

Only works for opposing pitchers: 1. K machine, 2. K machine, 3. K machine, 4. K machine, 5. K machine, 6 K machine 7. CONTACT HITTER, 8. K machine, 9 K machine. Yoshida at 11.7% was the only guy who didn't punch out in about 1 of every 4 ABs. He really needs to bulk up and hit some solo HRs, so we can win a few pitchers' duels.

While I have faith Anthony will have a better K-rate than last year's 27.7%, that still leaves seven whiffers. The best 2025 rates of those Sultans of Swing and Miss belonged to Duran and Abreu at 24.4% and 24.6% (including the breezy playoffs). 

In contrast, here are some '25 K-rates of a pennant winner that just missed a World Series ring: Clement 10.4%, Kirk 11.7%, Lukes 13.7%, Vlad 13.8%, Bo 14.5%, Gimenez 17.9%, Springer 18.9%. Barger, one of their worst, lowered his K-rate to 23.3% with a postseason that included a .367 batting average in 17 games with an OPS of 1.025. 

I don't mean to disparage anyone's proposals here, but just know how far away the Sox are from actually challenging the best teams. The young guys can certainly improve, though the vets are who they are at this point... but hey, the Jays finished last a year ago and changed batting coaches -- just to show it could happen.

Posted
6 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Only works for opposing pitchers: 1. K machine, 2. K machine, 3. K machine, 4. K machine, 5. K machine, 6 K machine 7. CONTACT HITTER, 8. K machine, 9 K machine. Yoshida at 11.7% was the only guy who didn't punch out in about 1 of every 4 ABs. He really needs to bulk up and hit some solo HRs, so we can win a few pitchers' duels.

While I have faith Anthony will have a better K-rate than last year's 27.7%, that still leaves seven whiffers. The best 2025 rates of those Sultans of Swing and Miss belonged to Duran and Abreu at 24.4% and 24.6% (including the breezy playoffs). 

In contrast, here are some '25 K-rates of a pennant winner that just missed a World Series ring: Clement 10.4%, Kirk 11.7%, Lukes 13.7%, Vlad 13.8%, Bo 14.5%, Gimenez 17.9%, Springer 18.9%. Barger, one of their worst, lowered his K-rate to 23.3% with a postseason that included a .367 batting average in 17 games with an OPS of 1.025. 

I don't mean to disparage anyone's proposals here, but just know how far away the Sox are from actually challenging the best teams. The young guys can certainly improve, though the vets are who they are at this point... but hey, the Jays finished last a year ago and changed batting coaches -- just to show it could happen.

The Jays showed one way to make it far, but in baseball there are many different ways to build a winning team. Baseball history is littered with losing teams trying to copy the latest fad.

Posted

This may not be too realistic, but if we can figure out a way to get Alonso to sign for a $30M AAV and Suarez to a $15M AAV, even if it takes an extra year, and option year with a buy out and or some differed money, we could still stay under the tax line, assuming we add no more to the budget without subtracting the same amount.

Maybe involve a third team but somehow get Ryan for Duran and others. Use the few $million saved to bring back Matz.

1. L Anthony LF

2. R Alonso 1B

3. L Abreu RF

4. R Suarez 3B

5. L Yoshida DH/R Romy DH

6. R Story SS or 2B

7. L Mayer 2B or SS

8. R Narvaez C

9. R Rafaela CF

SP: Crochet, Ryan, Bello, Sandoval, #5 from Early/Tolle/Harrison/Crawford/Dobbins

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Matz, Weissert, Bernardino, Fitts, Hicks

 

Posted
4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Top ERA- Pitchers from 2023-2025 (450+ IP)

Only Available or possibles listed:

1. Skubal 58

3. C Sanchez 70

6. Peralta 81

7. Valdez 81

13. S Gray 88

14. Lopez 88

15. Bibee 89

18. Ryan 92

20. Gallen 93

23. Bassitt 95

25. Keller & Gore 98

28. Singer 101

30. Cease 102

Go to 350 IP, and you add Sale 68, King 74, Greene 74, M Kelly 83, R Saurez 83, N Matinez 86, Quintanna 92, Lorenzen 97

xFIP

2.71 Skubal

3.00 C Sanchez

5. S Gray 3.19

7. Valdez 3.28

11. Lopez 3.41

17. R Suarez 3.62

18. Ryan 3.63

21. Cease 3.69

We could likely get Pablo Lopez for less return than Joe Ryan.

Off season needs:

1. Number 2 SP - Peralta or Ryan in a trade

2. Resign Bregman or replace his production

3. Add a power bat

Posted
28 minutes ago, Behindenemylines said:

Off season needs:

1. Number 2 SP - Peralta or Ryan in a trade

2. Resign Bregman or replace his production

3. Add a power bat

As much as some seem to think we are far away from a ring, I do agree we can become highly competitive with these three major moves. One is just bringing Bregman back or replacing him in kind. One can be made by trading from strength & depth. The last will mean spending largely.

Posted
12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The Jays showed one way to make it far, but in baseball there are many different ways to build a winning team. Baseball history is littered with losing teams trying to copy the latest fad.

I hope you don't mean it's a fad to hit the baseball instead of missing it. 

The pro game has trended to more all-or-nothing at the plate because of launch angle vs. more pitches that are harder than ever to connect with, like 100 mph velo and horizontal sweepers that break four feet.

The view that Toronto is an anomaly is sad, and I think instead the Jays' way will inspire or wake up other clubs to go back to the basics of baseball that lived for over a hundred years.

Posted
15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Maybe sub Polanco for Hoskins.

Can we get Suarez, Kelly & Polanco for $45M AAV? Maybe only by going one more year, differing money or giving the option year with buyouts.

 

1. L Anthony CF

2. S Polanco 2B

3. L Duran LF

4. R Suarez 1B

5. L Abreu RF

6. R Story SS

7. L Yoshida DH/ R Romy DH

8. R Narvaez C

9. L Mayer 3B

  •  

 

I like the team better, but I think I start with the 2 lefties and move Polanco down.  It would be a huge upgrade defensively and still not super potent offensively but not terribly impotent either.  Looks like a playoff contender.

Posted
13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

This may not be too realistic, but if we can figure out a way to get Alonso to sign for a $30M AAV and Suarez to a $15M AAV, even if it takes an extra year, and option year with a buy out and or some differed money, we could still stay under the tax line, assuming we add no more to the budget without subtracting the same amount.

Maybe involve a third team but somehow get Ryan for Duran and others. Use the few $million saved to bring back Matz.

1. L Anthony LF

2. R Alonso 1B

3. L Abreu RF

4. R Suarez 3B

5. L Yoshida DH/R Romy DH

6. R Story SS or 2B

7. L Mayer 2B or SS

8. R Narvaez C

9. R Rafaela CF

SP: Crochet, Ryan, Bello, Sandoval, #5 from Early/Tolle/Harrison/Crawford/Dobbins

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Matz, Weissert, Bernardino, Fitts, Hicks

 

Yoshida gets squeezed off this team, as one of suarez/alonso finds their way to dh.  Romy ends up platooning with Mayer and your an infielder short.  If an infielder emerges to have a good year out of nowhere , very strong team.

Community Moderator
Posted
17 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I worry about that. I read reports that he is fine, but I've heard that before.

We've all heard it before. At the time of the injury, there were a few people who spoke up about how serious it could be. I looked into other MLBers who had it and the players who made it back to 100% were few and far between. With his body type, it doesn't seem likely to me. I'm hopeful, but not going to be delusional about his chances. Right? I really like Casas's vibe and want him to be successful here. I'm just saying this injury makes it less likely. 

Community Moderator
Posted
Just now, drewski6 said:

Yoshida gets squeezed off this team, as one of suarez/alonso finds their way to dh.  Romy ends up platooning with Mayer and your an infielder short.  If an infielder emerges to have a good year out of nowhere , very strong team.

Where does Masa go? What happens to the $? I don't see JH eating more than one year of his salary. I think they are stuck with him through the trade deadline at least. 

Posted
1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I hope you don't mean it's a fad to hit the baseball instead of missing it. 

The pro game has trended to more all-or-nothing at the plate because of launch angle vs. more pitches that are harder than ever to connect with, like 100 mph velo and horizontal sweepers that break four feet.

The view that Toronto is an anomaly is sad, and I think instead the Jays' way will inspire or wake up other clubs to go back to the basics of baseball that lived for over a hundred years.

Great post, this dude has been making points for months!!

The only thing im not 100% with you on is using (as evidence) what has worked historically.  I agree with you on how the game has trended and 100% agree all-or-nothing is correct approach right now.

But Id like to show you how fast the game chances. The sweeper is a pitch that everyone was chasing in 2023 and 2024. It was the must add darling. Its still a devastating pitch, especially when paired with a sinker and a slider (because how you have 2 horizontal movement pitches at differing speeds).  Its still a great pitch.

But right now EVERYBODY is racing to add a splitter.  It took 1 yr for sweeper madness to turn into splitter madness. Ohtani has TWO splitters (they call one a splinker). Why? Because Gaussman, Yamamoto, Ohtani. Greene is working on his.  

When you ask me about pitchers the first thing I look at is what they throw.  Not even their k/9

Things change so fast, and what I believe is happening is that some people think they are "new school" because they follow bill james and saber metrics and high obp, and put the ball in play, and oppo , and choke up....But what people dont realize is just because the 80 yr olds are screaming at the 60 yr olds (I dont like these new stats like OBP and BABIP, thats too new school) ...I like wins and RBIs! What people arent realizing is that even though the 80 yr olds screaming this at the 60 yr olds, it doesnt mean that the 60 yr olds view is current either. Its just more current.  No offense to anyone intended.

Change happens fast. And you can win with an old school mentality.  But there is a reason why these things change.  And its best to not ignore the reasons. Now if you think there is a flaw in the logic fine, but tuning it out is how one gets left behind.

Posted
25 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Where does Masa go? What happens to the $? I don't see JH eating more than one year of his salary. I think they are stuck with him through the trade deadline at least. 

For this reason, I think Suarez is a fallback to Alonzo and not an alongside.  But in a world where we do get both, Yoshida goes to the bench.

Community Moderator
Posted
5 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

For this reason, I think Suarez is a fallback to Alonzo and not an alongside.  But in a world where we do get both, Yoshida goes to the bench.

So he pays to have two DHs? That doesn't seem likely to me. JH wants to spend as little as possible per win. Having an 18M guy on the bench is less than ideal. 

Posted
9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

So he pays to have two DHs? That doesn't seem likely to me. JH wants to spend as little as possible per win. Having an 18M guy on the bench is less than ideal. 

It doesnt seem likely to me which is why I think we get one of Suarez or Alonso, not both. But I was referring to a post that asked me to assess the team with both.  And if you have Suarez and Alonso and Yoshida, I still dont think youd play Suarez at 3b full time for the whole season. You can try, but I think hes getting hurt. 3B isnt easy to play. You bang around out there.  Its not for someone north of 35.  Justin Turner is a great example.

Posted
18 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I worry about that. I read reports that he is fine, but I've heard that before.

Everybody is healthy in November…

Posted
59 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

For this reason, I think Suarez is a fallback to Alonzo and not an alongside.  But in a world where we do get both, Yoshida goes to the bench.

Assuming either is on the radar at all.

I assume Bregman is the top target, and one that excludes Alonso.  The big downside to Alonso. Is it’s easier to get 75% of his production I for 25% of his price tag (numbers not exact).

 

The trade market might also carry 1b options beyond Alonso, Suarez, Hoskins, Bell, and the confusingly never-mentioned Luis Arraez.  Christian Walker is reportedly and unexcitedly available. As much as no one fantasizes about him, he is a step or two above Abraham Toro.  Yandy Diaz is reportedly available.  Ryan Mountcastle is a non-tender candidate that can be had. MJ Melendez is reportedly available and some say a non-tender possibility.  Spencer Torkelson has fallen from grace. And Thats just a cursory look at the AL…

Posted
8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

That is definitely not true right now. 

It’s never true.  But the hyperbolic point is that injuries are minimized early in the off-season..

Posted
1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

For this reason, I think Suarez is a fallback to Alonzo and not an alongside.  But in a world where we do get both, Yoshida goes to the bench.

3B: Suarez

1B: Alonso

DH: Yoshida/Romy

1 OF'er: Traded (not DH'd)

Posted
16 minutes ago, notin said:

Assuming either is on the radar at all.

I assume Bregman is the top target, and one that excludes Alonso.  The big downside to Alonso. Is it’s easier to get 75% of his production I for 25% of his price tag (numbers not exact).

 

The trade market might also carry 1b options beyond Alonso, Suarez, Hoskins, Bell, and the confusingly never-mentioned Luis Arraez.  Christian Walker is reportedly and unexcitedly available. As much as no one fantasizes about him, he is a step or two above Abraham Toro.  Yandy Diaz is reportedly available.  Ryan Mountcastle is a non-tender candidate that can be had. MJ Melendez is reportedly available and some say a non-tender possibility.  Spencer Torkelson has fallen from grace. And Thats just a cursory look at the AL…

Naylor is out there, too.

Here in HOU, there is talk Paredes is being shopped.

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