A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[notin]

On 11/12/2025 at 12:36 PM, mvp 78 said:

Names prior to Jeffries: Mike Marshall, Ron Kittle, Dwight Gooden, Mike Beilecki, Jose Canseco. Just saying that Campbell may have a pedigree that we shouldn't give up on just yet. 

 

Mike Bielecki!?!?  
 

Cred…

[moonslav59]

Sale is an awesome pitcher, when healthy. Nobody disputes that.

This team has had a horrible record with pitchers with injury histories, and we all go nutty whenever the next one fails. I'm kinda surprised some of us want us to keep up that losing tradition.

Skubal's one year is one thing, but giving up a lot for an injury prone, aging, short term pitcher, no matter how great just seems like another dice roll.

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Sale is an awesome pitcher, when healthy. Nobody disputes that.

This team has had a horrible record with pitchers with injury histories, and we all go nutty whenever the next one fails. I'm kinda surprised some of us want us to keep up that losing tradition.

Skubal's one year is one thing, but giving up a lot for an injury prone, aging, short term pitcher, no matter how great just seems like another dice roll.

Per BTV, one year of Chris Sale costs you Jhostnyxon Garcia or Brandon Clarke.

Per BTV, one year of Skubal costs you Connelly Early plus Payton Tolle (or Franklin Arias) plus Mikey Romero.  Of course that price could go up depending on how much other teams are willing to go…

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, notin said:

Per BTV, one year of Chris Sale costs you Jhostnyxon Garcia or Brandon Clarke.

Per BTV, one year of Skubal costs you Connelly Early plus Payton Tolle (or Franklin Arias) plus Mikey Romero.  Of course that price could go up depending on how much other teams are willing to go…

I might give Garcia for Sale- maybe Clarke, but I'd prefer adding a more dependable pitcher.

If we got Lodolo or Ryan plus Sale, I'd feel much better.

[Larry Cook]

5 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Sale makes a lot of sense as a deadline add more than an add at this point in time.  1. He'll be 7m as opposed to 18m, 2. if hes healthy at the deadline he has a much better shot at making it through the season because less runway between then and playoffs vs now and playoffs 

 Can Atlanta afford to wait until July to trade sale??  Seems like sale’s highest trade return value is now! He might be injured by July 

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

 Can Atlanta afford to wait until July to trade sale??  Seems like sale’s highest trade return value is now! He might be injured by July 

I think its worth it for them to take that gamble. If he gets hurt, they only miss out on what his trade value would be if they traded him today, which is small.  

Because we're no longer subsidizing the contract.  18m is kind of a lot for him, IMO.

[Larry Cook]

3 hours ago, drewski6 said:

I think its worth it for them to take that gamble. If he gets hurt, they only miss out on what his trade value would be if they traded him today, which is small.  

Because we're no longer subsidizing the contract.  18m is kind of a lot for him, IMO.

Everything is negotiable 

[notin]

3 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

 Can Atlanta afford to wait until July to trade sale??  Seems like sale’s highest trade return value is now! He might be injured by July 

Is Atlanta even selling?

[moonslav59]

50 minutes ago, notin said:

Is Atlanta even selling?

They might on Sale.

[notin]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

They might on Sale.

Per their fans, they reset last year and will spend this year.  That does sound familiar…

[moonslav59]

26 minutes ago, notin said:

Per their fans, they reset last year and will spend this year.  That does sound familiar…

Doesn't matter. Selling Sale works, either way.

[moonslav59]

I'm all in on adding 2 mega bats, but if we go three good ones, maybe this works:

Trade Mayer & Campbell for K Marte (2B) and Duran for Lodolo.

Sign Alonso (1B) Suarez (3B) and M Kelly (SP) & Refsnyder

1. L Anthony LF

2. R Alonso 1B

3. S Marte 2B

4. R Suarez 3B

5. L Abreu RF

6. R Story SS

7. L Yoshida DH

8. R Narvaez C

9. R Rafaela

Bench: Wong, Romy, Refsnyder, DHam

SP: Crochet, Lodolo, Kelly, Bello, Sandoval/Dobbins/Crawford/Harrison/Perales/Fitts/Early/Tolle/Drohan/Uberstine/Anderson

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Bernardino, Fitts, Hicks, Murphy/Criswell, Wink/ Moran/Kelly/Sandlin/Mullins

[notin]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Doesn't matter. Selling Sale works, either way.

Unless they don’t want to.  And all these Sandlin, Mullens, Hicks packages are not going to sway Atlanta towards selling.  “Yeah! Mediocre fungible pitching prospects and a longer, more expensive contract for a worse pitcher!! How could we say no?”

[moonslav59]

MLBTR listed 3 pitchers "on the trade market"

Gore: 2 arbs remaining ($5M est '26)

Singer: last arb ($12.1M est '26)

S Gray: $35M '26 w club option '27 $30M w $5M buyout ($24.8M AAV) I'm going to add that if STL is looking to retool and dump salary, they have Willson Contreras at 1B, who is owed $18M, $18.5M & $17.5M option w $5M buyout ($17.5M AAV.) These are overpaid players, and notice I did not list Arenado, because he's owed even more than Yoshida. 

Trading for Gray and Contreras would eat up the whole budget up to the first tax line, unless we sent back some salary, like $12M Hicks, $7.7M Duran, $7.5M Campbell or somehow got them to take part of Yoshida's deal, but why would a team perhaps looking to cut salary not try to max out their savings? I do wonder, if they might take Campbell, Hicks and Casas for Gray & Contreras. Note: I'm not sure I'd do this, since it adds about $22M AAV.  Sonny Gray has been a damn good pitcher, but his number have decline up to this 36 year old season. Contreras turns 34 next season, but his OPS+ has remained pretty steady near 123-130ish w 20ish HR power.

Trading for 1 year of Singer is okay, if we don't give up much, but Gore might be the best option. However, I see he and Songer  as decent 3/4 SP'ers and we have a bunch of guys with hopes of filling that role, including Bello who has kinda proven he is just that.

I still like the idea of Ryan or Lodolo. I feel Alcantara, despite the high ceiling, is too much of a risk for what he may cost in return.

Brez was hinting at signing a pitcher and trading for a bat, which goes against my opinion, but without knowing who he has in mind, I'll hold off being critical.

[notin]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

MLBTR listed 3 pitchers "on the trade market"

Gore: 2 arbs remaining ($5M est '26)

Singer: last arb ($12.1M est '26)

S Gray: $35M '26 w club option '27 $30M w $5M buyout ($24.8M AAV) I'm going to add that if STL is looking to retool and dump salary, they have Willson Contreras at 1B, who is owed $18M, $18.5M & $17.5M option w $5M buyout ($17.5M AAV.) These are overpaid players, and notice I did not list Arenado, because he's owed even more than Yoshida. 

Trading for Gray and Contreras would eat up the whole budget up to the first tax line, unless we sent back some salary, like $12M Hicks, $7.7M Duran, $7.5M Campbell or somehow got them to take part of Yoshida's deal, but why would a team perhaps looking to cut salary not try to max out their savings? I do wonder, if they might take Campbell, Hicks and Casas for Gray & Contreras. Note: I'm not sure I'd do this, since it adds about $22M AAV.  Sonny Gray has been a damn good pitcher, but his number have decline up to this 36 year old season. Contreras turns 34 next season, but his OPS+ has remained pretty steady near 123-130ish w 20ish HR power.

Trading for 1 year of Singer is okay, if we don't give up much, but Gore might be the best option. However, I see he and Songer  as decent 3/4 SP'ers and we have a bunch of guys with hopes of filling that role, including Bello who has kinda proven he is just that.

I still like the idea of Ryan or Lodolo. I feel Alcantara, despite the high ceiling, is too much of a risk for what he may cost in return.

Brez was hinting at signing a pitcher and trading for a bat, which goes against my opinion, but without knowing who he has in mind, I'll hold off being critical.

Alcantara is an injured mess.  While the Sox have the depth to cover him, I can understand passing.

Both Singer and Gore have been worth 7.3 fWAR over the past 3 years, tied for 42nd in MLB for pitchers with 150 IP or more in that time.  Singer might be the dirt cheap unsexy name that is actually fairly underrated.  Only one year is an issue, however.  And despite feeling he might be underappreciated, not sure how I feel about an extension…

[notin]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

Alcantara is an injured mess.  While the Sox have the depth to cover him, I can understand passing.

Both Singer and Gore have been worth 7.3 fWAR over the past 3 years, tied for 42nd in MLB for pitchers with 150 IP or more in that time.  Singer might be the dirt cheap unsexy name that is actually fairly underrated.  Only one year is an issue, however.  And despite feeling he might be underappreciated, not sure how I feel about an extension…

Of course I checked out BTV.

Singer has a surplus value of $10.7mill, which is below the value of any Sox MLB outfielder.  Closest is Garcia ($16.9) and no one really knows if the Reds want him, since they have OF prospects, too.

A fair deal for Gore is two from Tolle, Arias, and Campbell.  Expect them to insist on Tolle…

[Hitch]

Gore scares the hell out of me. I have no idea why, but he just does. 

[moonslav59]

34 minutes ago, notin said:

Alcantara is an injured mess.  While the Sox have the depth to cover him, I can understand passing.

Both Singer and Gore have been worth 7.3 fWAR over the past 3 years, tied for 42nd in MLB for pitchers with 150 IP or more in that time.  Singer might be the dirt cheap unsexy name that is actually fairly underrated.  Only one year is an issue, however.  And despite feeling he might be underappreciated, not sure how I feel about an extension…

Yes, tied for about 40th out of 180 that qualified with 150+ IP. If you divide #1s, 2's and 3's by groups of 30, they'd both be #2s, but many of the pitchers did not pitch in '23 and the IP totals are a big part of fWAR.

Others on your list:

1. Skubal (1 yr control)

5. S Gray (2 yrs at a high salary)

7. Valdez FA

8. Sale (2 yrs and injuries)

9. Cease FA

(12 Crochet)

15. R Suarez FA

16. Lopez (had arm issues)

17. Wacha (not mentioned in "KCR fit")

20. Ragans (3 yrs)

22. Gallen FA (bad season)

25. Nate (not on trade market?)

27. Ryan (the most targeted by poster suggestions)

28. H Greene (probably not being shopped)

29. Bibee (on market?)

30. L Castillo

31. Lugo (another KCR guy)

32. Burnes

33. Keller (a better option than Bubic, Ragans, Alcantara and others?)

37. Flaherty

38. Eflin FA

39. Bassitt FA (older than God)

40. Gore & Singer

44. M Kelly FA (maybe the most cost-effective FA option?)

46. Ober

50. Verlander FA (speaking of age and God.)

51. King FA (injuries)

(54. Bello)

66. N Martinez FA

high 4's: Lodolo, Littell, Monty, Alcantara, ERod

 

 

[Larry Cook]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Unless they don’t want to.  And all these Sandlin, Mullens, Hicks packages are not going to sway Atlanta towards selling.  “Yeah! Mediocre fungible pitching prospects and a longer, more expensive contract for a worse pitcher!! How could we say no?”

Young cost controlled upside pitchers for a 37 year old on the last year of his deal for a team that is not going anywhere!! 
 

you do the math!! 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

Young cost controlled upside pitchers for a 37 year old on the last year of his deal for a team that is not going anywhere!! 
 

you do the math!! 

ATL has always been willing to make deals like this.

[Larry Cook]

10 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, tied for about 40th out of 180 that qualified with 150+ IP. If you divide #1s, 2's and 3's by groups of 30, they'd both be #2s, but many of the pitchers did not pitch in '23 and the IP totals are a big part of fWAR.

Others on your list:

1. Skubal (1 yr control)

5. S Gray (2 yrs at a high salary)

7. Valdez FA

8. Sale (2 yrs and injuries)

9. Cease FA

(12 Crochet)

15. R Suarez FA

16. Lopez (had arm issues)

17. Wacha (not mentioned in "KCR fit")

20. Ragans (3 yrs)

22. Gallen FA (bad season)

25. Nate (not on trade market?)

27. Ryan (the most targeted by poster suggestions)

28. H Greene (probably not being shopped)

29. Bibee (on market?)

30. L Castillo

31. Lugo (another KCR guy)

32. Burnes

33. Keller (a better option than Bubic, Ragans, Alcantara and others?)

37. Flaherty

38. Eflin FA

39. Bassitt FA (older than God)

40. Gore & Singer

44. M Kelly FA (maybe the most cost-effective FA option?)

46. Ober

50. Verlander FA (speaking of age and God.)

51. King FA (injuries)

(54. Bello)

66. N Martinez FA

high 4's: Lodolo, Littell, Monty, Alcantara, ERod

 

 

Isn’t Keller a 4th or 5th starter at this point 

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Isn’t Keller a 4th or 5th starter at this point 

Depends how you group them. If you say a #1 is 1-30th, #2 is 31-60 and so on, he's been a 2 or 3 slot pitcher. He's not really getting worse as he ages.

He's got the 37th best fWAR since 2022 (170+ IP).

33rd best since 2023.

45th best since 2024

35th best in 2025 (150+ IP)

He'd probably be a #3- maybe like Bello.

 

[notin]

13 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Isn’t Keller a 4th or 5th starter at this point 

Brad?  Sure.  Mitch? Absolutely not…

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Brad?  Sure.  Mitch? Absolutely not…

I just assumed it was about Mitch.

Brad is a 5/6.

[Larry Cook]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I just assumed it was about Mitch.

Brad is a 5/6.

I hope bres-slow can bring us a true #2 starter 

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I hope bres-slow can bring us a true #2 starter 

Agreed, I'd "settle" on Mitch Keller, if he got us one of these tandem signings:

Alonso + Bregman 3B/Suarez 3B /Polanco 2B/Bichette 2B

Schwarber + Bregman3B/Suarez3B/Polanco2B

Borderline acceptable...

Bregman + Suarez (1B)

Bichetts + Suarez (1B)

KMarte + Suarez (1B)

[moonslav59]

I have been pretty consistent in suggesting we trade for a SP'er and sign bats, but could we also trade for a bat? Something like...

Duran for Lodolo

Mayer, Harrison & Clarke for K Marte

Sign Alonso, Suarez, Matz & Refsnyder

________________________

1. L Anthony LF

2. S KMarte 2B

3. R Suarez 3B

4. R Alonso 1B

5. L Abreu RF/ R Refsnyder RF

6. R Story SS

7. L Yoshida DH/ R Refsnyder DH

8. R Narvaez

9. R Rafaela CF

Bench: Wong, Romy, Refsnyder, DHam

SP: Crochet, Lodolo, Bello, 2 from Sandoval, Crawford, Dobbins, Harrison, Early, Tolle, Perales, Criswell

RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Matz, Weissert, Bernardino, Hicks, 1 from Wink, Criswell, Moran, Murphy, Kelly

 

[moonslav59]

Going by total AAV and ignoring JH's penchant for avoiding long term deals, who do you sign if you have $45 or $65M?

MLBTR projections:

$30M x 5 F Valdez

$28M x 4 Alonso

$27M x 7 Cease

$27M x 6 Bregman

$27M x 5 Schwarber

$26 x 8 Bichette

$25M x 6 Imai

$23M x 5 Suarez

$22M x 3 Woodruff

$22M x 1 G Torres

$21M x 3 Suarez

$20M x 4 M King & Z Gallen

$18M x 4 Naylor

$18M x 2 M Kelly

$17M x 4 D Williams

$17M x 3 Polanco

$16M x 4 Okamoto

$16M x 2 Giolito

$15M x 2 Kim & Realmuto

$13M x 2 O'Hearn & N Martinez

$12M x 2 Littell

$7M x 2 Willi Castro

$7M??? Josh Bello & R Hoskins

My chocies:

$45M:

28 Alonso + 17 Polanco

28 Alonso + 16 Okamoto

27 Schwarber (DH) + 21M Suarez (3B) and -$3M Duran for Lodolo

21 Suarez + 17 Polanco + 7 Hoskins/Bell

$65M

28 Alonso + 27 Schwarber + 7 Castro

28 Alonso + 21 Suarez + 17 Polanco

28 Alonso + 27 Bregman/26 Bichette + 7 Castro

[Larry Cook]

31 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Going by total AAV and ignoring JH's penchant for avoiding long term deals, who do you sign if you have $45 or $65M?

MLBTR projections:

$18M x 4 Naylor

$16M x 2 Giolito

If giolita’s shoulder checks out fine

Add in these 2 trades:

1.) Duran to Philly for bohm and painter. 
2.) Fitts, cutter, Campbell and Sandlin for Ryan 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

If giolita’s shoulder checks out fine

Add in these 2 trades:

1.) Duran to Philly for bohm and painter. 
2.) Fitts, cutter, Campbell and Sandlin for Ryan 

I just don't see this as the time to boost the farm. I know the Dodgers do it, but we are in a tight window and a likely tight winter budget. If we needed Painter to get Ryan, okay.