A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[Duran Is The Man]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Going by total AAV and ignoring JH's penchant for avoiding long term deals, who do you sign if you have $45 or $65M?

MLBTR projections:

$30M x 5 F Valdez

$28M x 4 Alonso

$27M x 7 Cease

$27M x 6 Bregman

$27M x 5 Schwarber

$26 x 8 Bichette

$25M x 6 Imai

$23M x 5 Suarez

$22M x 3 Woodruff

$22M x 1 G Torres

$21M x 3 Suarez

$20M x 4 M King & Z Gallen

$18M x 4 Naylor

$18M x 2 M Kelly

$17M x 4 D Williams

$17M x 3 Polanco

$16M x 4 Okamoto

$16M x 2 Giolito

$15M x 2 Kim & Realmuto

$13M x 2 O'Hearn & N Martinez

$12M x 2 Littell

$7M x 2 Willi Castro

$7M??? Josh Bello & R Hoskins

My chocies:

$45M:

28 Alonso + 17 Polanco

28 Alonso + 16 Okamoto

27 Schwarber (DH) + 21M Suarez (3B) and -$3M Duran for Lodolo

21 Suarez + 17 Polanco + 7 Hoskins/Bell

$65M

28 Alonso + 27 Schwarber + 7 Castro

28 Alonso + 21 Suarez + 17 Polanco

28 Alonso + 27 Bregman/26 Bichette + 7 Castro

you can scratch Naylor. rumor has it he is signing a 5 year deal to stay with the Mariners.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Duran Is The Man said:

you can scratch Naylor. rumor has it he is signing a 5 year deal to stay with the Mariners.

Not a fan of Josh Naylor.  He looks too much like a spaghetti western villain.   Despite his actually being Canadian, I still expect him to yell “Batters?! We don’t need no stinking batters!”

[Larry Cook]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Going by total AAV and ignoring JH's penchant for avoiding long term deals, who do you sign if you have $45 or $65M?

MLBTR projections:

$18M x 4 Naylor

 

Looks like naylor is staying with the mariners for 5 year. 

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Looks like naylor is staying with the mariners for 5 year. 

Good for them. I'm not a fan of Naylor, either, and 5 years- NOPE.

[Duran Is The Man]

i'm not sore we missed out on Naylor. i kinda like the guy, but i'd MUCH rather have Alonso.

[Larry Cook]

25 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i'm not sore we missed out on Naylor. i kinda like the guy, but i'd MUCH rather have Alonso.

Why??  We could have had him last year and we passed on him. What makes him better this year???

[Duran Is The Man]

9 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Why??  We could have had him last year and we passed on him. What makes him better this year???

i think they passed because they thought Casas was their guy.  he's damn sure better than Casas and the best 1B FA available.

[Hitch]

$90-$100m for Naylor on a 5 year deal.

That makes think Alonso won't be as cheap as I'd hoped. 

[drewski6]

On 11/15/2025 at 11:39 AM, Hitch said:

Gore scares the hell out of me. I have no idea why, but he just does. 

Is it because of his name?  Blood and "Gore"

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Hitch said:

$90-$100m for Naylor on a 5 year deal.

That makes think Alonso won't be as cheap as I'd hoped. 

Hard to know, but he will get significantly more than $90-100M/5.

BTW, Naylor turns 29 in June, so he's on the young side for a FA. 125 OPS+ since 2023 (avg 26 HRs and 99 Ks per 650)

Alonso will be 31 in a couple weeks, but he's played ovr 152 games in 5 straight seasons (162 last 2) He has a 130 OPS+ which is just 5 more than Naylor, but he averages about 38 HRs per 650- also 155 Ks) He sucks on D.

That being said, I like Alonso and Schwarber as our highest priority, with a big drop off to the Bregman, Bichette, Suarez & Polanco group.

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Hard to know, but he will get significantly more than $90-100M/5.

BTW, Naylor turns 29 in June, so he's on the young side for a FA. 125 OPS+ since 2023 (avg 26 HRs and 99 Ks per 650)

Alonso will be 31 in a couple weeks, but he's played ovr 152 games in 5 straight seasons (162 last 2) He has a 130 OPS+ which is just 5 more than Naylor, but he averages about 38 HRs per 650- also 155 Ks) He sucks on D.

That being said, I like Alonso and Schwarber as our highest priority, with a big drop off to the Bregman, Bichette, Suarez & Polanco group.

Past 3 seasons:

Naylor 8.1 fWAR

Alonso 8.5 fWAR

Why should Alonso get significantly more $$$? He's a bad defender heading towards a DH role and older. 

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Past 3 seasons:

Naylor 8.1 fWAR

Alonso 8.5 fWAR

Why should Alonso get significantly more $$$? He's a bad defender heading towards a DH role and older. 

Chicks dig the long ball.

Are you saying Alonso will get just $100-110/5? Maybe $120/5 or $140/6?

I think $150/6 is significantly more and he will get more than that... maybe much more.

Many sites are projecting $28-30M AAV.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Chicks dig the long ball.

Are you saying Alonso will get just $100-110/5? Maybe $120/5 or $140/6?

I think $150/6 is significantly more and he will get more than that... maybe much more.

Many sites are projecting $28-30M AAV.

Maybe he gets that contract. I'm saying he may not be worth that contract! 

[notin]

4 hours ago, Hitch said:

$90-$100m for Naylor on a 5 year deal.

That makes think Alonso won't be as cheap as I'd hoped. 

MLBTR predicted 5 years $90mill for Naylor and 4 yrs $110mill for Alonso…

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

MLBTR predicted 5 years $90mill for Naylor and 4 yrs $110mill for Alonso…

And they were 10% short on AAV for Naylor , but correct on yrs.  If we assume same for Petey - 

4 @ 30m per for ALonso.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Maybe he gets that contract. I'm saying he may not be worth that contract! 

And maybe not Naylor, either.

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

And maybe not Naylor, either.

SEA needs to pay a premium to attract hitters? IDK. I wouldn't have been happy if the Sox signed Naylor for that. 

 

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

SEA needs to pay a premium to attract hitters? IDK. I wouldn't have been happy if the Sox signed Naylor for that. 

 

Nor I, but I'd be happy if we sign Alonso for $180M/7. Less would be better but not possible. More would be okay, because we need a big power bat, very badly.

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Nor I, but I'd be happy if we sign Alonso for $180M/7. Less would be better but not possible. More would be okay, because we need a big power bat, very badly.

Might have well kept the better player (Devers) at that price point. 

[notin]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Might have well kept the better player (Devers) at that price point. 

Probably would have if he accepted playing 1b…

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Might have well kept the better player (Devers) at that price point. 

Agreed. I was not for that trade.

I'd also prefer Schwarber at DH, but Masa is here and Cora seems to want to play him.

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, notin said:

Probably would have if he accepted playing 1b…

Like he did with SFG, yes.

[moonslav59]

Some love for Roman...

https://www.mlb.com/news/roman-anthony-rookie-season-analysis

Quotes...

-his plate discipline looks even more impressive. Anthony showed a particularly keen eye on pitches that looked like strikes but weren’t, swinging at less than 30% of the out-of-zone pitches he saw on the edges of the plate.

-he registered an average bat speed of 75.1 mph (75 mph is considered “fast” in Statcast parlance) and squared up the ball 26.1% of the time. To put it as simply as we can, more than one in four of his swings achieved at least 80% of the maximum exit velocity possible given the pitch velocity and his bat speed. it’s no surprise that Anthony absolutely blistered the baseball, registering an average exit velocity of 94.1 mph with a hard-hit rate of 60.1%. No one -- not Kyle Schwarber or Shohei Ohtani or Aaron Judge -- generated hard contact (95+ mph exit velocity) at a higher clip.

-he was no slouch on defense. His 6 Outs Above Average and +4 Fielding Run Value are evidence of that, but those figures are counting stats. For someone who didn’t play a full season, they only tell part of the story.

To get a clearer understanding of his range, consider his success rate added, which shows the difference between a fielder’s actual success rate and the percentage of plays an average fielder would be expected to make with the same opportunities. Only one outfielder (minimum 75 attempts) had a higher success rate added than Anthony.

 

[harmony]

6 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

SEA needs to pay a premium to attract hitters? IDK. I wouldn't have been happy if the Sox signed Naylor for that. 

 

This Seattle fan isn't thrilled with the Josh Naylor signing but quickly settled into the acceptance stage.

In Jerry Dipoto's 10 years in Seattle, the Mariners had never guaranteed more than $24 million to a free agent hitter.

[drewski6]

25 minutes ago, harmony said:

This Seattle fan isn't thrilled with the Josh Naylor signing but quickly settled into the acceptance stage.

In Jerry Dipoto's 10 years in Seattle, the Mariners had never guaranteed more than $24 million to a free agent hitter.

Thats surprising to me, that you werent on board.  Naylor has been a great get for Seattle, who is showing a willingness to put pieces around JROD and Cal.

Better than Ty France 4 years in a row.

[harmony]

59 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Thats surprising to me, that you werent on board.  Naylor has been a great get for Seattle, who is showing a willingness to put pieces around JROD and Cal.

Better than Ty France 4 years in a row.

After his trade to Seattle, Josh Naylor was spectacularly fun to watch on the Mariners' march to the AL West title and the postseason run that fell one game short of the World Series.

But it was a small sample.

BTW Ty France won a Gold Glove this year.😉

[moonslav59]

44 minutes ago, harmony said:

After his trade to Seattle, Josh Naylor was spectacularly fun to watch on the Mariners' march to the AL West title and the postseason run that fell one game short of the World Series.

But it was a small sample.

BTW Ty France won a Gold Glove this year.😉

Naylor has been pretty good for longer than the SSS with SEA.

OPS+ since 2022: 121, 130, 118, 128 (124 average) He's 28.

How about Alonso? 146, 123, 122, 144 (134 average) Turns 31 in 3 weeks.

[notin]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Nor I, but I'd be happy if we sign Alonso for $180M/7. Less would be better but not possible. More would be okay, because we need a big power bat, very badly.

$180/7 for Alonso is not happening.  No team has ever offered 7 years to a 31yo 1b.  Freddie Freeman only got 6 years, granted at 32. But Freeman is a future Hall of Famer whereas Alonso probably falls off the ballot after his first vote…

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

$180/7 for Alonso is not happening.  No team has ever offered 7 years to a 31yo 1b.  Freddie Freeman only got 6 years, granted at 32. But Freeman is a future Hall of Famer whereas Alonso probably falls off the ballot after his first vote…

I figured he might get $180M/6, but that's probably too much. I wanted a lower AAV.

Yes, $180M/7 is off.

Maybe more like $150M/5, so offer $160M/6? Better?

[Randy Red Sox]

On 11/11/2025 at 11:35 AM, moonslav59 said:

I did not like the Devers trade. At the time, I suggested the trade only works, if we spend the money and spend it wisely.

of course so far we haven't