A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, Old Red said:

It’s how the Red Sox see it that counts. I think the Red Sox see it as why spend if you don’t have to. You see as what you would want to see, and the Red Sox are going see it the way they look at things, and most likely they are not going to be the same.

I fully understand this and expect nothing.

That being said, they did spend a lot, last winter and paid lip service to "adding" more and "improving" the team.

I've been trying to limit the sights to not going over the tax line. MVP suggests we can for year 2 then reset for 2027 (year 3.) The tax line is about $45M away in AAV. If we follow the past model, that may come in the form of only short term deals- perhaps one like Breggie's and maybe 1-2 more, or maybe 4-5 guys at $10-13M each.

I will not be surprised if we add Hoskins and trade Duran and others for Ryan and a claim that he team is better and "will win more," without Breggie, Gio, Matz and Ref.

This will not stop me from suggesting what I think SHOULD be done, and I know you are not telling me not to do that, but I want to say it again. There is a difference between what I suggest and what I expect, and I know what the team does and thinks is "all that counts."

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I fully understand this and expect nothing.

That being said, they did spend a lot, last winter and paid lip service to "adding" more and "improving" the team.

I've been trying to limit the sights to not going over the tax line. MVP suggests we can for year 2 then reset for 2027 (year 3.) The tax line is about $45M away in AAV. If we follow the past model, that may come in the form of only short term deals- perhaps one like Breggie's and maybe 1-2 more, or maybe 4-5 guys at $10-13M each.

I will not be surprised if we add Hoskins and trade Duran and others for Ryan and a claim that he team is better and "will win more," without Breggie, Gio, Matz and Ref.

This will not stop me from suggesting what I think SHOULD be done, and I know you are not telling me not to do that, but I want to say it again. There is a difference between what I suggest and what I expect, and I know what the team does and thinks is "all that counts."

Lots of times I post what I think the Red Sox will do, and not what I would like to see them do. I would like to see the Red Sox sign both Flintstone, and Alonso, but I see zero chance of that happening. I guess I’m in a I’ll believe it when I see it mode, so I’ll just wait ,and see how it all turns out. Brez has proven he’s not afraid to make a move, so I expect something to happen, but just not to big.

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Lots of times I post what I think the Red Sox will do, and not what I would like to see them do. I would like to see the Red Sox sign both Flintstone, and Alonso, but I see zero chance of that happening. I guess I’m in a I’ll believe it when I see it mode, so I’ll just wait ,and see how it all turns out. Brez has proven he’s not afraid to make a move, so I expect something to happen, but just not to big.

I might have missed all those posts.

Also, signing Schwarber and Alonso would put us over the tax line. I try to make suggestions that do not. (That doesn't make mine better than yours, and maybe not even more realistic, since they often involve a large and long deal that JH is avoiding.)

Some large but not long deals (due to age) might include:

Suarez 34

Realmuto 35

Hoskins or Bell 33

M Kelly 37

Sale or Bassitt at 37

N Martinez 35

Maybe Polanco 32

Schwarber is 33, but will get 4+ year- probably 5-6 yrs.

 

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I might have missed all those posts.

Also, signing Schwarber and Alonso would put us over the tax line. I try to make suggestions that do not. (That doesn't make mine better than yours, and maybe not even more realistic, since they often involve a large and long deal that JH is avoiding.)

Some large but not long deals (due to age) might include:

Suarez 34

Realmuto 35

Hoskins or Bell 33

M Kelly 37

Sale or Bassitt at 37

N Martinez 35

Maybe Polanco 32

Schwarber is 33, but will get 4+ year- probably 5-6 yrs.

 

I go on the assumption that the Red Sox would like to make the least amount of deals, and spend the least amount of money they possibly can to make the Red Sox a competitive , and winning team kind of like what they’ve done at the trade deadline the past few years. I think they knew Bregman would just be a 1 yr deal, and then they would reevaluate after that, which is where the Red Sox are at now. I’ll have to see it, before I believe anything different.

 

[notin]

14 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I go on the assumption that the Red Sox would like to make the least amount of deals, and spend the least amount of money they possibly can to make the Red Sox a competitive , and winning team kind of like what they’ve done at the trade deadline the past few years. I think they knew Bregman would just be a 1 yr deal, and then they would reevaluate after that, which is where the Red Sox are at now. I’ll have to see it, before I believe anything different.

 

I will go along with least amount of money.  I just don’t think they care how many deals it takes to get there.

But I also think they do need to put one big deal out there for the fans…

[Old Red]

13 minutes ago, notin said:

I will go along with least amount of money.  I just don’t think they care how many deals it takes to get there.

But I also think they do need to put one big deal out there for the fans…

The reason I mentioned deals is I believe the  Red Sox would like to fill out the positions from within as much as they can.

[notin]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

The reason I mentioned deals is I believe the  Red Sox would like to fill out the positions from within as much as they can.

 Reasonable assumption.  I mean, they blatantly said that was the goal when they hired Bloom.

They don’t have much in the upper tier of their farm ready to step in right away that we haven’t already seen.  Will Campbell get another shot? Early start off in the rotation? When is Tolle back?

We all hope these guys start next season out as MiLB depth, but it’s not necessarily going to work out that way…

[mvp 78]

48 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I go on the assumption that the Red Sox would like to make the least amount of deals, and spend the least amount of money they possibly can to make the Red Sox a competitive , and winning team kind of like what they’ve done at the trade deadline the past few years. I think they knew Bregman would just be a 1 yr deal, and then they would reevaluate after that, which is where the Red Sox are at now. I’ll have to see it, before I believe anything different.

"Look, we just gotta tell those dummies we're interested in everybody and they'll believe it! Hey, we're gonna trade for a number 2! See, it worked..." 

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, notin said:

 Reasonable assumption.  I mean, they blatantly said that was the goal when they hired Bloom.

They don’t have much in the upper tier of their farm ready to step in right away that we haven’t already seen.  Will Campbell get another shot? Early start off in the rotation? When is Tolle back?

We all hope these guys start next season out as MiLB depth, but it’s not necessarily going to work out that way…

The guys that could help this season: Tolle, Early, Dobbins, Perales, Sandlin, Mullins, Campbell, Garcia.

The pitchers have some question marks, but could fill in if Brezzz runs into injury issues or if the prospects continue to progress. I'm not very high on Sandlin, but he could turn it around quickly.

The hitters don't really seem ready at the moment to me. I don't know how soon they'll get Campbell to MLB again, but he still has work to do and didn't really get back to the player he was in '24 whether to do injury or "losing weight" as the Sox said (not believable to me). Garcia needs more work in pitch recognition or he's just going to get eaten alive after promotion. Any injury on the offensive side of the ball is going to really hurt the Sox. They just don't have inhouse replacements ready to go. 

[notin]

41 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The guys that could help this season: Tolle, Early, Dobbins, Perales, Sandlin, Mullins, Campbell, Garcia.

The pitchers have some question marks, but could fill in if Brezzz runs into injury issues or if the prospects continue to progress. I'm not very high on Sandlin, but he could turn it around quickly.

The hitters don't really seem ready at the moment to me. I don't know how soon they'll get Campbell to MLB again, but he still has work to do and didn't really get back to the player he was in '24 whether to do injury or "losing weight" as the Sox said (not believable to me). Garcia needs more work in pitch recognition or he's just going to get eaten alive after promotion. Any injury on the offensive side of the ball is going to really hurt the Sox. They just don't have inhouse replacements ready to go. 

Sometimes promotions come regardless of whether or not the player is ready.

The Cubs demoted Matt Shaw for 6 weeks ladt year before recalling him.  He did hit in AAA like he had before, but I think the bigger factor was his replacements (Berti and Brujan) were both steps down from the performance that got Shaw demoted in the first place…

[mvp 78]

33 minutes ago, notin said:

Sometimes promotions come regardless of whether or not the player is ready.

The Cubs demoted Matt Shaw for 6 weeks ladt year before recalling him.  He did hit in AAA like he had before, but I think the bigger factor was his replacements (Berti and Brujan) were both steps down from the performance that got Shaw demoted in the first place…

They avoided calling up Campbell this year when they really could have used him again. I think they'll will be pretty careful with him going forward. 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

I will go along with least amount of money.  I just don’t think they care how many deals it takes to get there.

But I also think they do need to put one big deal out there for the fans…

IMO, most likely in the form of a big trade or a high AAV deal with an opt out (like Bregman) and not a multi year deal.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

The guys that could help this season: Tolle, Early, Dobbins, Perales, Sandlin, Mullins, Campbell, Garcia.

The pitchers have some question marks, but could fill in if Brezzz runs into injury issues or if the prospects continue to progress. I'm not very high on Sandlin, but he could turn it around quickly.

The hitters don't really seem ready at the moment to me. I don't know how soon they'll get Campbell to MLB again, but he still has work to do and didn't really get back to the player he was in '24 whether to do injury or "losing weight" as the Sox said (not believable to me). Garcia needs more work in pitch recognition or he's just going to get eaten alive after promotion. Any injury on the offensive side of the ball is going to really hurt the Sox. They just don't have inhouse replacements ready to go. 

I think they also look for 650 PAs vs 303 from Anthony and maybe 600 from Mayer vs 136. That's like adding a FT All Star to them. That could be what they view as the "Devers replacement."

Now, how to "replace" Bregman, Gio and to a lesser extent Wilson Matz and Refsnyder?

Maybe, they see more IP from Dobbins, Crawford, Fitts, Early and Tolle as enough to replace Gio.

Mayer may replace Breggie at 3B, but I already used more from him and Anthony to replace Devers' bat.

We'd need at least one major bat add just to stay even, and that assumes no injuries, at all.

[moonslav59]

Thinking we need at the very least one major addition to just stay even is not only truthful, it might be necessary to keep enough fans in one of these two categories:

1. Fans thinking management is really making a strong effort at building a highly competitive team capable of winning a ring between 2026 and 2028.

2. Fans falling for the sham that the management team is doing enough to improve the chance of winning a ring.

They don't care what category most fans fall in, as long as it's one of these and not one where discontent affects fan viewership and spending on tickets or any other money-making venture related to the team's revenue accumulation.

Sadly, this is the one area that gives me hope we spend enough, this winter.

[moonslav59]

According to BTV, a Duran for Lodolo trade is a gross Sox overpay by almost double.

Even Duran (73.1) for Lodolo (29.4) plus Tim McLain (10.2) is an overpay.

How about Duran (73.1) Hicks (-17.6) and DHam (5.7) for Lodolo & McLain? It's still an overpay, and I'm not sure Cincy wants to take on the Hicks contract plus pay Duran $3.5M more than Lodolo, but BTV says Cincy should say yes.

The Sox would save about $14M on the tax budget, which might be close to enough to pay for Suarez or Merrill Kelly.

[harmony]

On 10/30/2025 at 2:33 PM, moonslav59 said:

Going by Spotrac's numbers and a possible $45M budget, maybe this is the best we could do:

24.9 Schwarber

15.0 Suarez

7.0 Hoskins

4.0 Matz

Duran($8M) K Campbell ($7.5M) & Sandlin for Greene ($8.3M) saves $7M and adds $7M to the $45M winter budget suggested above.

 

Another analysis of the pending free agency of Eugenio Suarez:

https://www.mariners-consigliere.com/p/what-about-geno?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1203224&post_id=177678766&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=2z8agc&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email

 

[oldtimer]

19 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I think they also look for 650 PAs vs 303 from Anthony and maybe 600 from Mayer vs 136. That's like adding a FT All Star to them. That could be what they view as the "Devers replacement."

Now, how to "replace" Bregman, Gio and to a lesser extent Wilson Matz and Refsnyder?

Maybe, they see more IP from Dobbins, Crawford, Fitts, Early and Tolle as enough to replace Gio.

Mayer may replace Breggie at 3B, but I already used more from him and Anthony to replace Devers' bat.

We'd need at least one major bat add just to stay even, and that assumes no injuries, at all.

The  WS will be completed tonight, one way or another. That will clear the way for the Bregman and possible Story free agencies. How they go will have a major impact on our needs and required actions. Our outfield is deep and probably set, with either  Duran or Abreu to be traded. Our first need is depth at starting pitching with quality needs there. 

We could need major help in the infield with Romy being a possible starter but big helth worries with Casas and Mayer. Campbell doesn't instill confidence as his defense was poor and I have trouble buying the weight loss excuse.  If both Bregman and Story leave, we need two quality infielders with big bats to stay even. In addition, we would be smart to replace Yoshida who lacks power and is one dimensional. 

So management needs to quickly determine the situation with Bregman and Story so they can exploit the offseason and return a product to  the field at least comparable to 2025.

[Hugh2]

41 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

The  WS will be completed tonight, one way or another. That will clear the way for the Bregman and possible Story free agencies. How they go will have a major impact on our needs and required actions. Our outfield is deep and probably set, with either  Duran or Abreu to be traded. Our first need is depth at starting pitching with quality needs there. 

We could need major help in the infield with Romy being a possible starter but big helth worries with Casas and Mayer. Campbell doesn't instill confidence as his defense was poor and I have trouble buying the weight loss excuse.  If both Bregman and Story leave, we need two quality infielders with big bats to stay even. In addition, we would be smart to replace Yoshida who lacks power and is one dimensional. 

So management needs to quickly determine the situation with Bregman and Story so they can exploit the offseason and return a product to  the field at least comparable to 2025.

I mean I know it’s not official yet, but I thought it’s been widely reported that Bregman plans on opting out and Story plans on staying

[moonslav59]

While the need for a solid #2 SP'er is real, we have so many 4/5 type pitchers with promise of becoming a 2/3 that, to me, the need for a major power bat is the number one priority.

I'd almost put a second big bat as the #2 priority, but SP 2 is right up there.

If we actually added 3 very high quality players, we could probably be okay not doing anything else. Of course, we can make a couple more minor adds, like brining Matz and Ref back, but adding 3 major players would do it for me. (I'd bring Ref back, if we trade an OF'er, but if we don't I'd uses Romy as the DH platoon and open up Ref's slot for Garcia or Campbell.)

[oldtimer]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

While the need for a solid #2 SP'er is real, we have so many 4/5 type pitchers with promise of becoming a 2/3 that, to me, the need for a major power bat is the number one priority.

I'd almost put a second big bat as the #2 priority, but SP 2 is right up there.

If we actually added 3 very high quality players, we could probably be okay not doing anything else. Of course, we can make a couple more minor adds, like brining Matz and Ref back, but adding 3 major players would do it for me. (I'd bring Ref back, if we trade an OF'er, but if we don't I'd uses Romy as the DH platoon and open up Ref's slot for Garcia or Campbell.)

Very reasonable positions to take. While I know Bregman has opted out, I don't know what the Sox will do. He still is an option to return but I'm guessing the front office has made the decision ot either compete for his services or look elsewhere. At 31, he still is a viable option.

[moonslav59]

39 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

Very reasonable positions to take. While I know Bregman has opted out, I don't know what the Sox will do. He still is an option to return but I'm guessing the front office has made the decision ot either compete for his services or look elsewhere. At 31, he still is a viable option.

I think the Sox will make him a decent offer but probably not the one he takes.

[moonslav59]

I think Bregman made a difference in the clubhouse and specifically our younger players. It would probably be helpful for him to return, but I'm not sure how essential it is, as long as we find a suitable replacement at 3B (2B, if Mayer plays 3B.)

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I think Bregman made a difference in the clubhouse and specifically our younger players. It would probably be helpful for him to return, but I'm not sure how essential it is, as long as we find a suitable replacement at 3B (2B, if Mayer plays 3B.)

He’s probably the most likely target for Boston over any other free agent.  I’m not even sure what Bregman’s market is outside of Boston…

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

He’s probably the most likely target for Boston over any other free agent.  I’m not even sure what Bregman’s market is outside of Boston…

Worst team 3B fWAR:

27th CHC 0.4

24th PHI 0.8

23rd CIN 0.9

22nd DET 1.1 (made Bregman a multi year offer, last winter)

18th NYY 1.4

[moonslav59]

If we are looking to go cheap at a few positions, we could always look to Cora's trusted platoon set-ups. Some possible slots could be:

2B or 3B: Mayer/Romy

1B: Casas (does not really need a platoon)/Romy or Lowe*/Romy

DH: Yoshida/Romy or Yoshida/Refsnyder* 

RF: Abreu/ Refsnyder or Abreu/Garcia

LF: Duran/Campbell or Duran/Garcia/Refsnyder*

CF: Anthony (LF when not in CF)/Rafaela

* If we bring him back

 

[notin]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Worst team 3B fWAR:

27th CHC 0.4

24th PHI 0.8

23rd CIN 0.9

22nd DET 1.1 (made Bregman a multi year offer, last winter)

18th NYY 1.4

The Cubs used top prospect Matt Shaw at 3b.  Doubtful they end that experiment already.  The Phillies might if they miss out on Schwarber, but they have top prospect Aiden Miller ready to step in. (Reportedly they’re fed up with Bohm.)  Cincy traded for the rather pricey K’Bryan Hayes at the deadline.  Theyre out on Bregman.  And Detroit has other issues, namely Skubal.  Plus other than Colt Keith, they have not extended a single young star they have brought up.  Nit Skubal. Not Riley Greene.  Not Kerry Carpenter.  Not Casey Mize.  In fact, the only two players on their roster with guaranteed deals after 2026 are Keith and Javier Lopez.  I think they focus on that crowd first.

The Yankees might be interested.  They have not extended one ready to step in.  But they also have to replace Bellinger, Grisham, Weaver, etc. which might be a higher priority…

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, notin said:

The Cubs used top prospect Matt Shaw at 3b.  Doubtful they end that experiment already.  The Phillies might if they miss out on Schwarber, but they have top prospect Aiden Miller ready to step in. (Reportedly they’re fed up with Bohm.)  Cincy traded for the rather pricey K’Bryan Hayes at the deadline.  Theyre out on Bregman.  And Detroit has other issues, namely Skubal.  Plus other than Colt Keith, they have not extended a single young star they have brought up.  Nit Skubal. Not Riley Greene.  Not Kerry Carpenter.  Not Casey Mize.  In fact, the only two players on their roster with guaranteed deals after 2026 are Keith and Javier Lopez.  I think they focus on that crowd first.

The Yankees might be interested.  They have not extended one ready to step in.  But they also have to replace Bellinger, Grisham, Weaver, etc. which might be a higher priority…

I could see the Yanks bolstering their line-up at 3B while maybe downgrading at an OF slot.

Maybe DET trades Skubal and signs Breggie. They never spent the money they offered him, last winter.

[notin]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I could see the Yanks bolstering their line-up at 3B while maybe downgrading at an OF slot.

Maybe DET trades Skubal and signs Breggie. They never spent the money they offered him, last winter.

1.  The Yankees could.  They do still have Jasson Dominguez and Spencer Jones.

2. The Tigers cannot be that stupid.  Not only is Skubal propping open their window, but extending Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter needs to be their next priority.  As for not spending their offer, they didn’t spend that money last year either…

[Hitch]

On 10/31/2025 at 1:40 PM, Old Red said:

It’s how the Red Sox see it that counts. I think the Red Sox see it as why spend if you don’t have to. You see as what you would want to see, and the Red Sox are going see it the way they look at things, and most likely they are not going to be the same.

I think the Sox will spend this summer and fairly big, but I think some of the proposals are fanciful to say the least. 

Henry does usually spend when the team is in a position to win, but it won't be wild spending. 

The real headache will come if Story opts out (I don't believe he will). Which is crazy as we'd have been desperate to get out of that deal a year ago.

I think they likely offer the QO to Gio. He loves it here so may well take it, but there will be a market for him if he's proven healthy.

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, Hitch said:

I think the Sox will spend this summer and fairly big, but I think some of the proposals are fanciful to say the least. 

Henry does usually spend when the team is in a position to win, but it won't be wild spending. 

The real headache will come if Story opts out (I don't believe he will). Which is crazy as we'd have been desperate to get out of that deal a year ago.

I think they likely offer the QO to Gio. He loves it here so may well take it, but there will be a market for him if he's proven healthy.

I agree, JH won't go wild with spending, but with 1 or 2 key trades, I think there is a way to add some high quality free agent signings and stay under the first or second tax line. The trades might need to involve saving a few $ million to help stretch the winter budget out enough to add 2-3 big signings over 1-2, and maybe we can get creative and dump Yoshida and/or Hicks by adding a prospect or two or taking back a lesser AAV contract, but I'm not counting on this aspect of our winter plan.

To me, and maybe I'm oversimplifying things, we could get significantly better by just adding 3 major pieces and maybe 2 minor ones. I know "just" seems like too much to ask for JH.

1. Trade for a pitcher like Joe Ryan. (Maybe Duran is part of a 3 way deal to get him- maybe not. We do have guys like Campbell or Garcia and Clarke, Valera, Fajardo and Arias the Twins might covet enough.)

2. Sign Alonso or Schwarber (or trade for Harper or K Marte)

3. Sign Suarez, Polanco or Bichette (or trade for Harper, KMarte or ____?)

4. Minor signings like S Matz and Ref (if we trade Duran or Abreu)

I saw a clip with Merloni saying the Sox are super high on pitchers with very high swing and miss rates on balls in the K zone, and that Joe Ryan is their guy. (I wasn't aware this is his strength.)