A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[Hitch]

On 11/2/2025 at 8:17 PM, Behindenemylines said:

 

If the Sox don't add a true number 2 starter and some power this off season they will take a step backwards next season. Plus resigning Bregman is very important. Bregman's numbers might be able to be replaced, but the leadership can't. A lot of the kids look to him for guidents. So these are the top three priorities:

1. True Number 2 starter ( Probably beat the Yanks in Wild Card if they had one this year)

2. Resign Bregman

3. Add power bat

 

 

 

But do you see it as a must if the contract is 6 @ $180M? (Bregman)

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

But do you see it as a must if the contract is 6 @ $180M? (Bregman)

Too long, too much IMO.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

The problem was the end of the year when Breggie slumped and Anthony was injured. Otherwise, the Sox offense was fairly successful. 

The team hit .715 after AUG 15th

80+ PAs

.909 Anthony

.802 Story

.790 Lowe

.731 Duran

.709 Romy

.688 Narvaez

.680 Yoshida

.625 Bregman

.628 Rafaela

(DHam & Ref did will at about 50 PAs, and Eaton did okay. Their OPS bumped up the team OPS and none are in the 2025 plans in any significant way. Lowe's .790 might be gone, too.)

[moonslav59]

I'm kinda surprised that so many think our offense will be good enough by just bringing Breggie back and adding a moderately-priced 1Bman.

[mvp 78]

56 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm kinda surprised that so many think our offense will be good enough by just bringing Breggie back and adding a moderately-priced 1Bman.

If Anthony is healthy, Breggie is healthy and they add Hoskins, they'll be a good (not great) offense. 

[moonslav59]

46 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If Anthony is healthy, Breggie is healthy and they add Hoskins, they'll be a good (not great) offense. 

Well, if Casas, Breggie, Abreu and Anthony were healthy in 2025, they'd have been good, too.

Why do we keep praying on excellent health, instead of trying to significantly improve the team from year to year?

Even really good teams often look to improve.

The idea should be to move towards great.

We lost Devers. We gained half an Anthony. Maybe Hoskins keeps us at middle tier on O.

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We lost Devers. We gained half an Anthony. Maybe Hoskins keeps us at middle tier on O.

Devers and Anthony overlapped for like 10 games. Anthony is Devers's replacement. 

Bringing Bregman back is just running the same offense back as last year which was a top 10 offense. Adding Hoskins should improve it. 

[Old Red]

38 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Well, if Casas, Breggie, Abreu and Anthony were healthy in 2025, they'd have been good, too.

Why do we keep praying on excellent health, instead of trying to significantly improve the team from year to year?

Even really good teams often look to improve.

The idea should be to move towards great.

We lost Devers. We gained half an Anthony. Maybe Hoskins keeps us at middle tier on O.

No matter who you sign, or trade for you are always praying for health. There has been a lot of bad injury Ju Ju the past few years in Boston.

[Old Red]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm kinda surprised that so many think our offense will be good enough by just bringing Breggie back and adding a moderately-priced 1Bman.

I think you’re worrying to much about the offense. The Red Sox got to where they were last year, because of improved pitching especially in the starting rotation. That’s the area you have to keep improving, and not take any step back IMO.

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Devers and Anthony overlapped for like 10 games. Anthony is Devers's replacement. 

Bringing Bregman back is just running the same offense back as last year which was a top 10 offense. Adding Hoskins should improve it. 

Let's assume Anthony replaces Devers, in kind, despite less power.

We still will likely lose Lowe (.790) and Ref (.828), which is about a half season of PAs (330ish.) So, now we need 630 PAs from Anthony to equal and 330 more from Hoskins for that and then to probably do way better than Casas and others who played some 1B.

Who adds O value in 2026?

Mayer, Campbell, Garcia? 

Also, "top 10" is debatable. 

T12th in wRC+

They did place 9th or 10th in other categories like OPS, away OPS & wRC+.

I guess 10th best is good enough for some.

Don't we have to get better to improve our odds?

Hoskins should help, but we will be counting on better health and upticks from the vets & kids to have a chance to improve.

I really see no reason to expect better from Story, Duran, Abreu, Narvaez, Rafaela, Romy & Bregman, assuming he returns. Anthony playing more should help. Mayer, Campbell & garcia might give us a boost- maybe even a jolt, but who is counting on that?

[moonslav59]

25 minutes ago, Old Red said:

No matter who you sign, or trade for you are always praying for health. There has been a lot of bad injury Ju Ju the past few years in Boston.

Indeed, but wouldn't you feel better if we had a better roster on paper, so if we have injuries- maybe about the same as 2025, we'd be better positioned to improve?

The one thing this team had, last year was decent depth. It was not that great at 1B, 3B and 2B, but the OF 4 amigos) , Catcher (Narvaez), rotation and pen depth made a big difference over the season. (Getting Lowe helped, too.)

We need more high quality players without compromising the depth and balance, too much. If you look at our 9 batting slots, we might have been the most balanced line-up in MLB. When you look at what we got from our rotation depth, one could argue we don't make the playoffs without Dobbins and Early. Our pen depth did what was needed.

We keep lamenting the loss of Betts, Bogey, Devers and even JD, but we've only added one star on offense, and he just opted out.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Let's assume Anthony replaces Devers, in kind, despite less power.

We still will likely lose Lowe (.790) and Ref (.828), which is about a half season of PAs (330ish.) So, now we need 630 PAs from Anthony to equal and 330 more from Hoskins for that and then to probably do way better than Casas and others who played some 1B.

Who adds O value in 2026?

Mayer, Campbell, Garcia? 

Also, "top 10" is debatable. 

T12th in wRC+

They did place 9th or 10th in other categories like OPS, away OPS & wRC+.

I guess 10th best is good enough for some.

Don't we have to get better to improve our odds?

Hoskins should help, but we will be counting on better health and upticks from the vets & kids to have a chance to improve.

I really see no reason to expect better from Story, Duran, Abreu, Narvaez, Rafaela, Romy & Bregman, assuming he returns. Anthony playing more should help. Mayer, Campbell & garcia might give us a boost- maybe even a jolt, but who is counting on that?

Tied for 11th in wRC+. If the top 2 teams are tied in HR's you don't say they are tied at #2. The Sox were 7th in runs.

Refsnyder will be back if they want him. 

The 2b position will be more productive this season if Mayer is the Opening Day guy. 

Improve what odds? Get to the playoffs? If the Sox have a top 10 pitching staff and a top 10 offense, the only thing left to tweak is the defense and that's not what is being proposed. 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Tied for 11th in wRC+. If the top 2 teams are tied in HR's you don't say they are tied at #2. The Sox were 7th in runs.

Refsnyder will be back if they want him. 

The 2b position will be more productive this season if Mayer is the Opening Day guy. 

Improve what odds? Get to the playoffs? If the Sox have a top 10 pitching staff and a top 10 offense, the only thing left to tweak is the defense and that's not what is being proposed. 

Okay 11th is not top 10, just as tied for 11th is the common expression when also tied for 12th.

I thought you did not trust Mayer. Besides: Sox 2B OPS .670. Mayer's .674.

YES! IMPROVE THE ODDS!

Yes, on making the playoffs.

Yes on advancing in the playoffs.

Yes on odds to win the WS.

Staying complacent rarely pays off. Status quo is a bad plan. Praying for good health should not be the main hope going into a season.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Okay 11th is not top 10, just as tied for 11th is the common expression when also tied for 12th.

I thought you did not trust Mayer. Besides: Sox 2B OPS .670. Mayer's .674.

YES! IMPROVE THE ODDS!

Yes, on making the playoffs.

Yes on advancing in the playoffs.

Yes on odds to win the WS.

Staying complacent rarely pays off. Status quo is a bad plan. Praying for good health should not be the main hope going into a season.

Is wRC+ the only measure??? They were top 7th in runs. 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Is wRC+ the only measure??? They were top 7th in runs. 

Park factors help with runs, but we did finish top 10 on the road in runs.

I thought you valued wRC+ very highly. When I use OPS, you often throw wRC+ at me.

We had the 3rd best OPS+ in the division. The A's had a better OPS+ than us.

[moonslav59]

Bleacher Reports projects...

350/10 Tucker

220/10 Murakami

210/7 Alonso

180/7 Bichette

175/5 Bregman

160/6 R Suarez

140/5 Bellinger

135/5 F Valdez

125/5 Cease

120/4 Schwarber

_________________

95/5 Naylor, 90/5 M King, 88/5 E Diaz,

72/4 Grisham, 50/2 Woodruff

E Suarez & J Polanco not even mentioned

[moonslav59]

The 2025 60 Day IL expires 5 days after the WS.

The Astros just DFA's 5 guys to make room.

The Sox have 8 players on the 60, but have 7 slots open due to FAs and were at 39, anyway.

Free Agents: Bregman, Giolito, Refsnyder, Matz, Wilson, Hendriks, D May.

60 Day IL Players

Houck (will likely go on the 60 right after the start of '26)

Mayer

Dobbins

Sandoval

Crawford

Winckowski

Casas

Guerrero

Grissom (may be let go)

[UtahSox]

On 11/2/2025 at 1:25 AM, Hitch said:

I think the Sox will spend this summer and fairly big, but I think some of the proposals are fanciful to say the least. 

Henry does usually spend when the team is in a position to win, but it won't be wild spending. 

The real headache will come if Story opts out (I don't believe he will). Which is crazy as we'd have been desperate to get out of that deal a year ago.

I think they likely offer the QO to Gio. He loves it here so may well take it, but there will be a market for him if he's proven healthy.

Hear me out on this idea. I think we all feel like Gio/Bello are #3-4 SP at best right now… So signing Gio for 22 seems like a lot when we could probably get Cease for 28-29, or Bieber for similar 22-26. 
1. Crochet

2. (Trade for Ryan or Alcantara type)

3. Sign Cease, Gallen, Bieber as 3SP

4. Bello

5. Depth/ young arms

[UtahSox]

13 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

The problem was the end of the year when Breggie slumped and Anthony was injured. Otherwise, the Sox offense was fairly successful. 

Breggie wasn’t the only one. Our OF offensive production was abysmal. 

[moonslav59]

49 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Hear me out on this idea. I think we all feel like Gio/Bello are #3-4 SP at best right now… So signing Gio for 22 seems like a lot when we could probably get Cease for 28-29, or Bieber for similar 22-26. 
1. Crochet

2. (Trade for Ryan or Alcantara type)

3. Sign Cease, Gallen, Bieber as 3SP

4. Bello

5. Depth/ young arms

In years past, I'd be asking for something like this. I agree it would be better to count Bello as the #4 and let the mass of kids and Sandoval fight for the 5 slot, but we will likely not spend as much as any of us wish we would, this winter and we need a couple bats, with at least one being a big one.

I think we'll ride the rotation depth and hop we find two good ones, while Bello slots #3, and we get one solid SP by trade or free agency. I'm betting on Joe Ryan or Cease- not  both.

If we could afford to get Ryan, Cease as well as moderately paid Suarez and Hoskins, I'd be in.

[moonslav59]

44 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Breggie wasn’t the only one. Our OF offensive production was abysmal. 

Yes, and Narvaez slumped, too.

[Hitch]

9 hours ago, UtahSox said:

Hear me out on this idea. I think we all feel like Gio/Bello are #3-4 SP at best right now… So signing Gio for 22 seems like a lot when we could probably get Cease for 28-29, or Bieber for similar 22-26. 
1. Crochet

2. (Trade for Ryan or Alcantara type)

3. Sign Cease, Gallen, Bieber as 3SP

4. Bello

5. Depth/ young arms

I think your problem there is that ownership are not going to fork out for long term contracts for pitchers in their 30s. 

They'll be okay with $22 for Gio because it's one year, and we've shown this year - you always need depth. But because of the inevitable shutout, I don't foresee Gio accepting a 1 year contract, so a no brainer for me.

I think we'll almost certainly trade for a younger no2 and try to extend, and use the rest of the money on the infield/power.

[Hitch]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Bleacher Reports projects...

350/10 Tucker

220/10 Murakami

210/7 Alonso

180/7 Bichette

175/5 Bregman

160/6 R Suarez

140/5 Bellinger

135/5 F Valdez

125/5 Cease

120/4 Schwarber

_________________

95/5 Naylor, 90/5 M King, 88/5 E Diaz,

72/4 Grisham, 50/2 Woodruff

E Suarez & J Polanco not even mentioned

I'd be surprised it a lot of those figures are correct, and stunned if Murakami gets 220/10.

[Hitch]

17 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

 

Staying complacent rarely pays off. Status quo is a bad plan. Praying for good health should not be the main hope going into a season.

I agree with this wholeheartedly. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Hitch said:

I think your problem there is that ownership are not going to fork out for long term contracts for pitchers in their 30s. 

They'll be okay with $22 for Gio because it's one year, and we've shown this year - you always need depth. But because of the inevitable shutout, I don't foresee Gio accepting a 1 year contract, so a no brainer for me.

I think we'll almost certainly trade for a younger no2 and try to extend, and use the rest of the money on the infield/power.

Agreed, but if they do go large and long on a pitcher, it might be Cease. He fit's their profile with the high swing and miss rate in the K zone.

He will turn 30, soon, so he's not well into his 30's.

His "off year" might shorten the L & L a bit.

I think we trade for Ryan and hand the 3-4-5 slots to Sandoval, Bello & the kids.

We will and should spend the money on big bats.

[mvp 78]

19 hours ago, Old Red said:

No matter who you sign, or trade for you are always praying for health. There has been a lot of bad injury Ju Ju the past few years in Boston.

Is it ju ju or just the players? 

[mvp 78]

Also, staying complacent/not a lot of turnover isn't necessarily a bad thing if you have a lot of younger players that you project to improve. It may not turn out that way, but you can't just rely on FA signings as those don't have a 100% hit rate. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

36 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Also, staying complacent/not a lot of turnover isn't necessarily a bad thing if you have a lot of younger players that you project to improve. It may not turn out that way, but you can't just rely on FA signings as those don't have a 100% hit rate. 

But if the Red Sox are not going to spend on the big power bats vital for deep October runs, then I'd rather they hang on to the young talent that the Minnesotas of the world will require for a Ryan or Pablo Lopez. 

Teams that are in total rebuilds like the Twins really have no need for Duran in his prime, pushing 30. They'll want the Sox' young pitchers plus top two position prospects -- Arias and Garcia... but both of those guys are exactly what we need -- while we wait for Boston to assemble a legitimate contender.

Arias is by all accounts a good shortstop, where the habitually injured pair of Story and Mayer are the current hopefuls. Garcia bats righty and hits home runs; the closet thing to that combo on the roster is Rafaela, better known for his D.

Trading for a #2 starting pitcher won't make them a legit contender... because this Red Sox offense -- without Devers and now Bregman -- isn't good enough, even with a healthy Anthony.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

A #2 starter will enhance the Sox' chances of making the playoffs again, but with their current batting order it's hard for even the most optimistic fan to say "if we can just make it, anything can happen."

If you watched most of the postseason after Boston was eliminated, here's what usually happens: the longer a pitchers' duel goes, the better the chances it will only end in one way:

HOME RUN!

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Is it ju ju or just the players? 

No doubt our SP'ers had excessive injuries, but then again the whole league has spiked at that position, too.

I'm not sure we had more injuries among everyday players than the norm, and that is one reason I question this whole argument that we'll be better because "Anthony, Mayer & Casas should be healthier in 2025." Other teams lost more than that, and part of the reason Anthony and mayer's total 2025 PAs were so low was out of late promotions and not injuries. The Casas injury was no surprise. The weeks missed by Bregman, Abreu, Narvaez and Ref were not all that long or out of the norm. The Masa injury should not really count, as it seems he could have DH'd earlier, had Devers not been clogging that slot up.

Story played more than anyone expected. Duran, Rafaela and others stayed healthy. The Wong injury actually helped us find out Narvaez is better.