A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The question we already know the answer to: the Sox are still missing a consistent longball threat in the heart of the order, but is there really any body out there worth trading Duran for, and losing his unique offensive skills?

I thought KMarte was worth it, but apparently, AZ wanted someone other than the greatest offensive player in the universe.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

25 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Ted Williams should have played CF. What were they thinking? 

They were thinking they were glad my cousin Al wasn't around. According to no human on the internet, Ted was a standout pitcher in high school who won 16 of 19 games as a senior, including a 21-K game.

"He was considered a better pitcher than hitter in high school..." said my monitor screen.

I think I also heard he had a moderate to severe case of poison ivy, which led to the chant, "We want a pitcher, not a belly itcher." After that, Ted hated all pitchers forever.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I thought KMarte was worth it, but apparently, AZ wanted someone other than the greatest offensive player in the universe.

Judge really ripped that "single" the Stadium scorers awarded him that Duran dropped..

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Both Duran's extra base speed and another guy's all-or-nothing power can contribute to a balanced offensive attack.

It might depend on how one defines power.  Alonso has a lot more HRs, but Alonso's SLG is only moderately higher over the past two years.  With our pitching and new-found defense, I can make a pretty good argument that Duran's ability to manufacture runs every day is more important than Alonso's ability to hit a HR once every 5 days.

[Hitch]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Duran is athletic enough to be a great OFer, but he just makes too many mental errors out there to be elite. If Rafaela wasn't on the squad, we'd be happy enough to throw him in CF, but there's no way I'd put him out there now. Once his speed decreases, he won't be able to make up for his poor routes. 

Agreed. He seemed far more comfortable in CF than LF where he looked lost on times. He's great cover, which is what you want from your DH/4th outfielder I guess. 

[Hitch]

3 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The question we already know the answer to: the Sox are still missing a consistent longball threat in the heart of the order, but is there really any body out there worth trading Duran for, and losing his unique offensive skills?

Both Duran's extra base speed and another guy's all-or-nothing power can contribute to a balanced offensive attack. Swapping one for the other doesn't upgrade what Boston chose to ignore this winter.

I think there is still enough speed in the team that if we got a power bat in for Duran it would lead to a nicely balanced attack. 

Whether that player is available is another thing. The answer seems to be no right now.

 

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Agreed. He seemed far more comfortable in CF than LF where he looked lost on times. He's great cover, which is what you want from your DH/4th outfielder I guess. 

If they believed in Duran long term and the importance of defense at Fenway, they would have tried:

Anthony LF

Duran CF

Rafaela RF

I think they believe Abreu has room to grow and Duran is closer to taking steps backwards, which is why they are going year to year with him.

[moonslav59]

The thing about our OF is that all 4 do worse vs LHPs, even our RHB Rafaela.

Since Rafaela isn't a good hitter against L or R, maybe we sit him vs some RHPs, so Duran plays some more OF and Masa or Casas get some ABs at DH vs righties.

It's a juggling act that was needless. We shoulda done something last winter, and did not learn the lesson, in 2025, either.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The thing about our OF is that all 4 do worse vs LHPs, even our RHB Rafaela.

Since Rafaela isn't a good hitter against L or R, maybe we sit him vs some RHPs, so Duran plays some more OF and Masa or Casas get some ABs at DH vs righties.

It's a juggling act that was needless. We shoulda done something last winter, and did not learn the lesson, in 2025, either.

Rafaela had a 899 OPS from 5/28-8/3. There weren't many people on here saying he couldn't hit during that stretch (200 PA's). If he wasn't moved to the IF, maybe he continues to hit well? 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Rafaela had a 899 OPS from 5/28-8/3. There weren't many people on here saying he couldn't hit during that stretch (200 PA's). If he wasn't moved to the IF, maybe he continues to hit well? 

I have not given up on Rafaela's continued growth as a batter. The guy was as raw as raw could be when he begin professional baseball. His lack of improvement on K%-BB% over his farm years led many to believe he is what he is, but we've seen a marked jump in the right direction. He's still very bad in those areas, but not historically bad.

Yes, he swings at too many bad pitches, but somehow he gets hits on enough of them to end up with decent numbers.

The MLB OPS in 2025 was .719. His slow September put him just below that mark for the season (.709)

He can have some god-awful stretches, so maybe he takes a step back, but I could see him nearing .750 in 2026. If Duran falls by as much as he did from '24 to '25 and Ceddanne improves, they may end up near each other.

[Old Red]

29 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The thing about our OF is that all 4 do worse vs LHPs, even our RHB Rafaela.

Since Rafaela isn't a good hitter against L or R, maybe we sit him vs some RHPs, so Duran plays some more OF and Masa or Casas get some ABs at DH vs righties.

It's a juggling act that was needless. We shoulda done something last winter, and did not learn the lesson, in 2025, either.

Masa taking up a roster spot as a pretty much full time DH is one thing, but I don’t see him, or Casas taking up roster spots as backup DH.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Masa taking up a roster spot as a pretty much full time DH is one thing, but I don’t see him, or Casas taking up roster spots as backup DH.

Agreed. There is barely room for one. My guess is one outshines the other, of they give Masa the first look, due to his contract. If both are doing poorly, the choice will be easier. If both are doing well, one will be traded or stuck in AAA.

I've heard some talk we are looking to cut some salary, so maybe we can save $3-5M a year on a Masa trade. Maybe we trade Sandoval. 

It makes no sense to have Casas and Masa on the 26. For now, it's okay for the 40, but maybe that day ends, during the season. Since Casas is cheaper and has more years of control, and actually had a 900+ sample size of .800+ batting, I'm leaning towards him. Let's see how the knee looks in a few weeks. He looks pretty limber, right now.

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Masa taking up a roster spot as a pretty much full time DH is one thing, but I don’t see him, or Casas taking up roster spots as backup DH.

As much as we both dislike the idea of Masa playing LF, I think Cora and Brez are more open to the idea.

If there is one good thing out of keeping 4 OF'ers is that it should keep Masa form playing LF, as long as the 4 stay healthy.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

21 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

As much as we both dislike the idea of Masa playing LF, I think Cora and Brez are more open to the idea.

If there is one good thing out of keeping 4 OF'ers is that it should keep Masa form playing LF, as long as the 4 stay healthy.

Cora and Brez may like Masa in leftfield, but we all know the reason the owners won't let them play him there: they don't want to keep paying for new bulbs on the Fenway scoreboard.

Lightwads.

[moonslav59]

Other than no longer having Ref to platoon with Abreu, the positions that will see the most changes from 2025 are 1B, 3B, 2B and DH.

We're hearing a lot of talk about the giant step back our offense took, this winter and with the June trade of Devers, so let's look more closely at the numbers:

DH: .823 OPS in '25. No Devers (.905 as DH in about half the PAs at DH) We also saw Anthony at .932 in 79 DH PAs. Masa was second in PAs at 179 (.741 as a DH.) Ref hit .823 as a DH in 74 PAs. Nobody else had significant playing time at DH. Basically Devers was almost half (.905) and Masa/Roman/Ref were aout 40%. This is going to be very hard to match. It looks like Duran will be used at DH more than others. Masa, Anthony, Romy, Casas and maybe even Campbell might get some time there. I'm thinking maybe .773 for the group. That's -50 from 2025.

2B: .670 in 2025. This one area we can improve on, but Mayer is such an unknown- both in terms of health and projected performance level. Campbell had about 1/3 the PAs at .658. DHam had about 1/4 at .633, and Romy had about 1/5 at .870. Ceddanne had 79 PAs at .309. Sogard + Mayer added up to 54 PAs at over .800 combined. This position will see almost all different players as the PA leaders. It'ds hard to project Mayer and the injured Romy, but I'm going to go with .695 and a +25 from 2025.

3B: .777 in 2025, which is hard to believe after Bregman's nutty first half. Breggie ended up with about 5/7ths of the PAs at .821. Mayer was second at 107 PAs and a .629 OPS. Toro, Eaton & Sogard combined for almost 100 PAs and a combined .700 OPS. Since Durnin was a rookie in 2025, and IKF has never hit over .699, I'm going with a .727 positional OPS at 3B, That may be low end, but it's another -50 for a position change.

1B: .691 in 2025. Contreras might offer our best hope to make up for the losses at 3B and DH. If he can hit like 2025, we'd see a 100 Point gain at 1B.

-50, -50, +100 and +25 looks like we might break about even. (+25 overall)

We can safely say we might see a drop from .736 at SS, especially if IKF gets too much time there. That might take away that +25.

Abreu batting vs LHPs could hurt the OF slots, but more PAs by Anthony should make for a plus on offense from the OF as a whole.

I'm guessing we stay about the same at catcher (.653) with Wong batting better and maybe Narvaez having a sophomore slump. There is room for improvement here.

When you go position by position, things don't seem as bad as it looks. Indeed, we lost 4 of our top 6 OPS guys from 2025:

1. Devers .905 (334)

3. Refsnyder .838 (209)

5. Bregman .821 (495)

6. Lowe .790 (119)

But, the combined PAs total about 1150 and not even 2 FT players.

We also lost...

.590 DHam (194)

.659 Toro (284) and maybe less from Campbell at .664 (263)

That's one FT player's worth of PAs at under .650.

I know this is over simplifying things, and this never seems to work out when looking at one year to the next, and roster and slots end up in flux, but maybe things on offense won't be as bad as some think it will be.

 

 

 

[drewski6]

8 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

They were thinking they were glad my cousin Al wasn't around. According to no human on the internet, Ted was a standout pitcher in high school who won 16 of 19 games as a senior, including a 21-K game.

"He was considered a better pitcher than hitter in high school..." said my monitor screen.

I think I also heard he had a moderate to severe case of poison ivy, which led to the chant, "We want a pitcher, not a belly itcher." After that, Ted hated all pitchers forever.

 

Nobody believed Austin Riley that he wasnt a pitcher and even Austin Riley started having doubts. He just really hated it, but was good at it and was a better pitcher in college than hitter/3rd baseman.  The Braves were the only team wiling to take him in first 2 rounds as a positoin player, everyone else wanted him to pitch. And his minor league career got off to a rocky start and his phone blew up every day , friends telling him, just be a pitcher. I know you hate it but you are so good at it.

[moonslav59]

So, Casas and Romy start the season on the IL, Masa makes the 26, and here is the opening day line-up and roster:

Starter: Crochet (#2 Suarez, #3 Gray, #4 Bello, #5 Oviedo)

Closer: Chapman (#2 Whitlock, 3 Slaten, 4 Weissert, 5 Crawford, 6. Sandoval, 7 Watson, 8. Moran)

1. L Anthony LF

2. R Story SS

3. L Duran DH

4. R Contreras 1B

5. L Abreu RF

6. R Narvaez C

7. L Mayer 2B

8. R Durbin 3B

9. R Rafaela CF

Bench: Wong, Masa, IKF, Monasterio

[mvp 78]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

So, Casas and Romy start the season on the IL, Masa makes the 26, and here is the opening day line-up and roster:

Starter: Crochet (#2 Suarez, #3 Gray, #4 Bello, #5 Oviedo)

Closer: Chapman (#2 Whitlock, 3 Slaten, 4 Weissert, 5 Crawford, 6. Sandoval, 7 Watson, 8. Moran)

1. L Anthony LF

2. R Story SS

3. L Duran DH

4. R Contreras 1B

5. L Abreu RF

6. R Narvaez C

7. L Mayer 2B

8. R Durbin 3B

9. R Rafaela CF

Bench: Wong, Masa, IKF, Monasterio

Swap Oviedo and Sandoval's roles. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Games begin tomorrow!

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Swap Oviedo and Sandoval's roles. 

I thought about that one. I think they may ease Sandoval into a SP role by being the long man for a while.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I thought about that one. I think they may ease Sandoval into a SP role by being the long man for a while.

I think it'd be more likely that they'd just piggyback Sandoval with Oviedo for a few weeks TBH and keep Sandoval pitching once every 5 days. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I think it'd be more likely that they'd just piggyback Sandoval with Oviedo for a few weeks TBH and keep Sandoval pitching once every 5 days. 

I could see that. The one doing better starts more and more and goes longer and longer.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I thought about that one. I think they may ease Sandoval into a SP role by being the long man for a while.

It might depend on our LH RPs are doing.  If Samaniego and Moran bomb out, Sandy might be our default LH RP.  In the past three seasons, he's allowed 2 HRs in 262 ABs v lefties.

[UtahSox]

21 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The thing about our OF is that all 4 do worse vs LHPs, even our RHB Rafaela.

Since Rafaela isn't a good hitter against L or R, maybe we sit him vs some RHPs, so Duran plays some more OF and Masa or Casas get some ABs at DH vs righties.

It's a juggling act that was needless. We shoulda done something last winter, and did not learn the lesson, in 2025, either.

1000% or sometime at 2b…. Because as bad as he is MM is worse. I just posted lineup vs LHP has been giving me heartburn. 

Rafaela inexplicably doesn’t hit them well, Abreu has been platoon heavy until this point. Fingers crossed……Duran took a nose dive last summer vs LHP. Mayer is unplayable vs MLB lefties but still very small sample size. 

That’s why I liked Andujar over IKF. 
we could have slow played Romy back to 100% given those 4 LHP AB’s then made a decision in July. 

 

[mvp 78]

15 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

It might depend on our LH RPs are doing.  If Samaniego and Moran bomb out, Sandy might be our default LH RP.  In the past three seasons, he's allowed 2 HRs in 262 ABs v lefties.

Samaniego has never pitched in AAA. I don't think he's factoring in anywhere just yet. 

[notin]

23 hours ago, Hitch said:

Agreed. He seemed far more comfortable in CF than LF where he looked lost on times. He's great cover, which is what you want from your DH/4th outfielder I guess. 

He had one good year in CF, but he’s shown us plenty of times he doesn’t belong there.  I don’t think Ive ever seen an outfielder more out of place than he was on Raimel Tapia’s inside-the-park grand slam.  I know that’s just one play, but it was about as extreme as it gets…

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, notin said:

He had one good year in CF, but he’s shown us plenty of times he doesn’t belong there.  I don’t think Ive ever seen an outfielder more out of place than he was on Raimel Tapia’s inside-the-park grand slam.  I know that’s just one play, but it was about as extreme as it gets…

There have been enough balls that have just dropped in that other OFers would have made plays on. He makes a weird combination of great plays and head scratchers. 

[notin]

47 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

1000% or sometime at 2b…. Because as bad as he is MM is worse. I just posted lineup vs LHP has been giving me heartburn. 

Rafaela inexplicably doesn’t hit them well, Abreu has been platoon heavy until this point. Fingers crossed……Duran took a nose dive last summer vs LHP. Mayer is unplayable vs MLB lefties but still very small sample size. 

That’s why I liked Andujar over IKF. 
we could have slow played Romy back to 100% given those 4 LHP AB’s then made a decision in July. 

 

IKF is more versatile, can field multiple positions (Andujar can’t field anywhere), has a Gold Glove, and can be used as a pinch runner.  IKF over Andujar all day…

[notin]

46 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Samaniego has never pitched in AAA. I don't think he's factoring in anywhere just yet. 

Is pitching in AAA really a necessary step anymore?  It seems like AAA is more a place for minor league contracts and players 27-40…

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, notin said:

IKF is more versatile, can field multiple positions (Andujar can’t field anywhere), has a Gold Glove, and can be used as a pinch runner.  IKF over Andujar all day…

Hard to really compare the two players TBH. They don't serve the same purpose on the roster.