A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[drewski6]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I merely said the mix of 4 guys is not as big a step down and the gain we'd get from adding KMarte or Neto over Mayer/Durbin/IKF or DHam, had we not made the trade for Durbin.

I don't want to trade one of our best bats. I just think we are wasting Duran (or Anthony) at DH. Duran's value as an OF'er is much higher to another team than to us as a DH.

I dont believe when people are like "I like player x but heres why im glad he opted out or why we didnt sign him or why i would trade him"

If hes your first choice to send out, you DONT like the player.  Im not saying that you like actively dislike him but clearly theres a reason why you keep going back to trading him over , say , Cedanne - who is a good chance to be a "4th outfielder/defensive substitution" by June.

Notin talks about trading Duran over Cedanne due to trade value, do you?  Or do you just prefer Cedanne? And if the latter that is more unreasonable than ANYTHING Fred has ever said.

Duran will likely be top 5 in AL in doubles and triples again.  And I think by end of season, he will have played more games in field than DH because I think either a) someone will get hurt or b) someone will push CEDANNE out of a starting job.

 

[drewski6]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Rafaela is my favorite Sox player, right now, but I think I was one of the few posters who suggested trading him to keep the OF offense strong and to help add some beef to the infield.

I said what I said, and that was that Im very glad that we didnt trade Duran, Abreu, Anthony.  Cedanne not being on that list was not an oversight, you are correct to read into why I didnt include him.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I agree completely.  Watching Ceddanne is like watching a Van Gogh.  But I could sell my Van Gogh for something that fits my collection better.

Funny how Van Gogh is my favorite painter, too.

Maybe we get Neto for Rafaela and Arias? (Add Phillips or valera, if needed?) I might do Mayer and Rafaela for Neto or KMarte plus MAYBE a prospect.

Now, Contreras at 1B over Alonso makes much more sense. We could still do the Durbin trade. The money for KMarte might mean no Sonny Gray, but for Neto we coulda done it all.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I said what I said, and that was that Im very glad that we didnt trade Duran, Abreu, Anthony.  Cedanne not being on that list was not an oversight, you are correct to read into why I didnt include him.

Rafaela is not my 4th choice, but I fully understand why he is yours and others. If I knew were adding so little offense, I'd have gladly traded Rafaela for an infield bat. Maybe even Rafaela for Paredes and King.

[drewski6]

Right now, Im glad Cedanne is still here because I think the injuries will solve this too many outfielder problem for us.  And I do think he adds a lot with his CF defense.  But I think we need Durans doubles and triples so much, that hes untouchable right now.  I dont think hes going to get traded.  And if Casas is tearing the cover off the ball in May and Contreras is playing well and everyone is heathy.....I expect Cedanne to either play infield (if like Mayer is struggling or hurt) or I expect Cedanne to come off the bench.

[drewski6]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Rafaela is not my 4th choice, but I fully understand why he is yours and others. If I knew were adding so little offense, I'd have gladly traded Rafaela for an infield bat. Maybe even Rafaela for Paredes and King.

Doesnt Duran already have a double off Crochet THIS YEAR?  WHere did Duran rank in doubles last year? Year before that? How about triples? Year before that?

My point is more about Duran than it is about Cedanne, who I like also.  But the fact that Duran is so many peoples first name as odd man out leads me to believe that people are understimatig the importance of doubles and triples.

There is a reason why Duran will hit third and Anthony lead off (extra base hits).

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Doesnt Duran already have a double off Crochet THIS YEAR?  WHere did Duran rank in doubles last year? Year before that? How about triples? Year before that?

My point is more about Duran than it is about Cedanne, who I like also.  But the fact that Duran is so many peoples first name as odd man out leads me to believe that people are understimatig the importance of doubles and triples.

There is a reason why Duran will hit third and Anthony lead off (extra base hits).

I'm only trading Duran for a better batter and a position we need more.

Otherwise, I'm not for trading offense away.

[notin]

28 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I dont believe when people are like "I like player x but heres why im glad he opted out or why we didnt sign him or why i would trade him"

If hes your first choice to send out, you DONT like the player.  Im not saying that you like actively dislike him but clearly theres a reason why you keep going back to trading him over , say , Cedanne - who is a good chance to be a "4th outfielder/defensive substitution" by June.

Notin talks about trading Duran over Cedanne due to trade value, do you?  Or do you just prefer Cedanne? And if the latter that is more unreasonable than ANYTHING Fred has ever said.

Duran will likely be top 5 in AL in doubles and triples again.  And I think by end of season, he will have played more games in field than DH because I think either a) someone will get hurt or b) someone will push CEDANNE out of a starting job.

 

That’s why I’m glad they kept all the OF.  Apparently no one wanted Duran at their price, and I’m ok with them not settling just to clear up the logjam that could very easily fix itself in time…

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm only trading Duran for a better batter and a position we need more.

Otherwise, I'm not for trading offense away.

Im fine with this, because a lot of things would have to line up.  A position we need more would be Mayer falling on his face or Story getting hurt or Mayer getting hurt.  But its not really a thing right now, as in there is no starter of our 9 who I see as a "hole".

SO if theres an infield hold at the deadline, but all 4 OF'ers are healthy and productive, then you would trade Duran for an infielder who is a better hitter than Duran.....Im okay with this but.....I dont think that universe of players is as big as you think it is.  Infielder who can field the position reasonably well and outhit Duran.  

Marte, sure.  Paredes - no.

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

That’s why I’m glad they kept all the OF.  Apparently no one wanted Duran at their price, and I’m ok with them not settling just to clear up the logjam that could very easily fix itself in time…

I agree.  Im very glad we didnt trade Duran, Abreu, Anthony. I am glad we didnt trade Cedanne.  I never really saw the need to trade any.  The argument for trading Cedanne would be the bat could regress then his value is kinda shot.  But I dont think Cedanne had a ton of value this offseason (not sayiing he didnt have a significant amount)

Im a hoarder of talent.  I think you and I are both fine with things not being super clean. I respect you for this (among other things). Some people want one left-fielder, one center-fielder, one right - fielder, one third baseman....Im more like a stay flexible, stay versatile, have depth kinda guy.  I expect twists and turns.  I dont love making decisions right now that cant be undone (e.g. trading an outfielder), im more about how can we hoard the most talent.

[moonslav59]

35 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Im fine with this, because a lot of things would have to line up.  A position we need more would be Mayer falling on his face or Story getting hurt or Mayer getting hurt.  But its not really a thing right now, as in there is no starter of our 9 who I see as a "hole".

SO if theres an infield hold at the deadline, but all 4 OF'ers are healthy and productive, then you would trade Duran for an infielder who is a better hitter than Duran.....Im okay with this but.....I dont think that universe of players is as big as you think it is.  Infielder who can field the position reasonably well and outhit Duran.  

Marte, sure.  Paredes - no.

I'd rather we had the extra infielder than OF'er, but adding IKF was a smart choice.

It is good having depth, and if we lose an OF'er for a big chunk of the season, I will be eating Crow for breakfast, lunch and dinner.

My position is that all 9 slots come first, then depth. Since Duran can DH, that counts for something significant. Our offense is better with him in it. Since our offense is our weakest area in general, trading him seems counterintuitive. 

Maybe I have more faith than I should in a DH mix of Masa/Casas (LHB) & Campbell/Romy (RHB) than I should. Maybe Duran his more like 2024 than 2025 and most of those guys putter and stuggle. That is certainly possible.

I wanted a second big bat. Contreras kinda counts as one, and we needed a decent 1Bman. That left 2B or 3B to add a nice bat. We had already traded some SP'er depth to add Gray and Contreras, so the obvious place to take from was the OF, plus maybe adding Tolle/Early/Witherspoon if we went real big.

I chose Duran for several reasons, but Rafaela made sense, too.

1. I'm only trading Duran for a better bat.

2. Duran is the worst defender of the 4.

3. Duran has the least amount of control of the 4.

4. Duran turns 30, this year. The other 3 are pre-prime.

5. The drop in hits, 2Bs, 3Bs, HRs, OBP, SLG and SBs from 2024 to 2025 is a little concerning. It's not like he was the model of consistency before his half 2023 season plus 2024.

I'd have been fine keeping O over D and trading Rafaela. I even suggested a few Abreu trades.

[drewski6]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd rather we had the extra infielder than OF'er, but adding IKF was a smart choice.

It is good having depth, and if we lose an OF'er for a big chunk of the season, I will be eating Crow for breakfast, lunch and dinner.

My position is that all 9 slots come first, then depth. Since Duran can DH, that counts for something significant. Our offense is better with him in it. Since our offense is our weakest area in general, trading him seems counterintuitive. 

Maybe I have more faith than I should in a DH mix of Masa/Casas (LHB) & Campbell/Romy (RHB) than I should. Maybe Duran his more like 2024 than 2025 and most of those guys putter and stuggle. That is certainly possible.

I wanted a second big bat. Contreras kinda counts as one, and we needed a decent 1Bman. That left 2B or 3B to add a nice bat. We had already traded some SP'er depth to add Gray and Contreras, so the obvious place to take from was the OF, plus maybe adding Tolle/Early/Witherspoon if we went real big.

I chose Duran for several reasons, but Rafaela made sense, too.

1. I'm only trading Duran for a better bat.

2. Duran is the worst defender of the 4.

3. Duran has the least amount of control of the 4.

4. Duran turns 30, this year. The other 3 are pre-prime.

5. The drop in hits, 2Bs, 3Bs, HRs, OBP, SLG and SBs from 2024 to 2025 is a little concerning. It's not like he was the model of consistency before his half 2023 season plus 2024.

I'd have been fine keeping O over D and trading Rafaela. I even suggested a few Abreu trades.

Good post, I think the only thing I would point out is that by #1 , I think you mean: a better bat who plays 2b,3b, or ss and not just "a better bat".  I also think thats number of players in all of baseball is single digits.

I think people are undervaluing 2025 Duran.  He had a lot of doubles and triples last year.  

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Not sure how the defense will shake up, but expect a lot of playing time for a dozen guys.

The only thing that seems likely is that at least one pitcher -- probably a starter -- will need Tommy John and miss the rest of the season and next year.

Only in Boston, that loss won't require any transaction except to maybe activate someone else or promote a major league-ready arm to join the rotation and become the next stalwart. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Good post, I think the only thing I would point out is that by #1 , I think you mean: a better bat who plays 2b,3b, or ss and not just "a better bat".  I also think thats number of players in all of baseball is single digits.

I think people are undervaluing 2025 Duran.  He had a lot of doubles and triples last year.  

I meant better or equal bat, but I think KMarte & Paredes will be better bats in 2026- probably Neto, too.

Better offense, adds baserunning, and maybe Duran passes a few batters on the top O list.

I know OPS is not a perfect stat, but out of 274 samples of qualifying players in the 2024 and 2025 seasons, here is where Duran's two seasons placed:

#49 Duran in '24 at .834

#109 Duran in '25 at .774

KMarte #11 in 2024 and #18 in 2025

Combine 2024 and 2025 (500+ PAs)

6. KMarte .913

48. Duran .805

61. Bregman .791

69. Chisholm .784

78. Neto .776

Others:

9. Schwarber .890

16. Devers .860

25. Refsnyder .833

27. Alonso .830

40. Willson .813

47. E Suarez .806

65. Romy .786

 

 

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Not sure how the defense will shake up, but expect a lot of playing time for a dozen guys.

The only thing that seems likely is that at least one pitcher -- probably a starter -- will need Tommy John and miss the rest of the season and next year.

Only in Boston, that loss won't require any transaction except to maybe activate someone else or promote a major league-ready arm to join the rotation and become the next stalwart. 

I'd say Catcher, CF, RF and SS should be about the same on defense. IKF adds better defensive depth at SS.

1B: Improved with Contreras

2B: improved with Mayer/Romy/IKF

3B: worse than Bregman but not bad with Durbin/IKF/Mayer

LF: improved with Anthony> Duran

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

57 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd say Catcher, CF, RF and SS should be about the same on defense. IKF adds better defensive depth at SS.

1B: Improved with Contreras

2B: improved with Mayer/Romy/IKF

3B: worse than Bregman but not bad with Durbin/IKF/Mayer

LF: improved with Anthony> Duran

P: improved, because Gray and Suarez are known to be pretty good off the mound.

It's always been mystifying to me over the years how consistently bad Red Sox pitchers have been throwing to any base.

Anybody who's ever played baseball at any level -- especially Little League -- is used to seeing the best players on the team standing right where we want them, on the hill smack dab in the middle of the diamond.

Why is it different at Fenway Park?

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, drewski6 said:

WHere did Duran rank in doubles last year? Year before that? How about triples? Year before that?

Oddly enough, he is only 2nd in doubles and triples over the past two years (1st if you combine the two).  I'd have bet, without even looking that he lead in both categories.  Maybe the most exciting player in BB.

[notin]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

I agree.  Im very glad we didnt trade Duran, Abreu, Anthony. I am glad we didnt trade Cedanne.  I never really saw the need to trade any.  The argument for trading Cedanne would be the bat could regress then his value is kinda shot.  But I dont think Cedanne had a ton of value this offseason (not sayiing he didnt have a significant amount)

Im a hoarder of talent.  I think you and I are both fine with things not being super clean. I respect you for this (among other things). Some people want one left-fielder, one center-fielder, one right - fielder, one third baseman....Im more like a stay flexible, stay versatile, have depth kinda guy.  I expect twists and turns.  I dont love making decisions right now that cant be undone (e.g. trading an outfielder), im more about how can we hoard the most talent.

I actually moved on from trading Duran a while ago and thought Bello was the more viable trade piece, largely because we had really crazy SP depth at one point, but also because more teams need controlled SP than arb-eligible outfielders…

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, notin said:

That’s why I’m glad they kept all the OF.  Apparently no one wanted Duran at their price, and I’m ok with them not settling just to clear up the logjam that could very easily fix itself in time…

I agree.  I wanted to trade away Duran for a #2, but Suarez took care of that.  And once we acquired Durbin, we really didn't need anything.  That said, if I saw Burns, or Chandler, or Seth Hernandez on the block, I could change my mind pretty quickly.

[notin]

11 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

P: improved, because Gray and Suarez are known to be pretty good off the mound.

It's always been mystifying to me over the years how consistently bad Red Sox pitchers have been throwing to any base.

Anybody who's ever played baseball at any level -- especially Little League -- is used to seeing the best players on the team standing right where we want them, on the hill smack dab in the middle of the diamond.

Why is different at Fenway Park?

Because none of us have played above high school and comparing high school baseball to MLB should never be done? 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

15 minutes ago, notin said:

Because none of us have played above high school and comparing high school baseball to MLB should never be done? 

The only thing that changed after high school is when college started using the DH, many schools banned pitchers from batting to "protect" them. But pitchers were always the best players.

When it wasn't their day to pitch, most played shortstop and hit clean-up.

When Bloom drafted a thousand shortstops because they could be moved anywhere on the diamond, 995 of them were already pitchers. The other five had arms so strong, they were moved to the mound.

[notin]

3 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Not sure how the defense will shake up, but expect a lot of playing time for a dozen guys.

The only thing that seems likely is that at least one pitcher -- probably a starter -- will need Tommy John and miss the rest of the season and next year.

Only in Boston, that loss won't require any transaction except to maybe activate someone else or promote a major league-ready arm to join the rotation and become the next stalwart. 

As long as it’s Tanner Houck…

[notin]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The only thing that changed after high school is when college started using the DH, many schools banned pitchers from batting to "protect" them. But pitchers were always the best players.

When it wasn't their day to pitch, most played shortstop and hit clean-up.

When Bloom drafted a thousand shortstops because they could be moved anywhere on the diamond, 995 of them were already pitchers. The other five had arms so strong, they were moved to the mound.

Even with the DH, many/most?/all?? colleges still have two way players.  

Most high school draft picks are shortstops. As you said, they batted cleanup (for a reason) and could throw.  Most of them will also stop being shortstops at some point.

There’s a reason teams with weak minor league outfielder crops still draft high school shortstops…

[Hitch]

14 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Duran will likely be top 5 in AL in doubles and triples again.  And I think by end of season, he will have played more games in field than DH because I think either a) someone will get hurt or b) someone will push CEDANNE out of a starting job.

 

Cedanne's numbers would have to crater.  

The best alignment by far is - Anthony in LF, Raf in CF, Abreu in RF, and Duran at DH. You are elite defensively, and have all manner of threat from the four of them offensively. 

I'm not one who thinks we should trade Duran for prospects. But he is the DH unless performance or injury dictates otherwise. Which is a pretty good place to be. 

I do see the merit in trading him for a position of need if the return is right.

[mvp 78]

14 hours ago, notin said:

Because none of us have played above high school and comparing high school baseball to MLB should never be done? 

All those Royals teams in the 80's were foolish to have George Brett stuck at 3b TBH. 

[mvp 78]

14 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The only thing that changed after high school is when college started using the DH, many schools banned pitchers from batting to "protect" them. But pitchers were always the best players.

When it wasn't their day to pitch, most played shortstop and hit clean-up.

When Bloom drafted a thousand shortstops because they could be moved anywhere on the diamond, 995 of them were already pitchers. The other five had arms so strong, they were moved to the mound.

Ted Williams should have played CF. What were they thinking? 

[mvp 78]

3 hours ago, Hitch said:

Cedanne's numbers would have to crater.  

The best alignment by far is - Anthony in LF, Raf in CF, Abreu in RF, and Duran at DH. You are elite defensively, and have all manner of threat from the four of them offensively. 

I'm not one who thinks we should trade Duran for prospects. But he is the DH unless performance or injury dictates otherwise. Which is a pretty good place to be. 

I do see the merit in trading him for a position of need if the return is right.

Duran is athletic enough to be a great OFer, but he just makes too many mental errors out there to be elite. If Rafaela wasn't on the squad, we'd be happy enough to throw him in CF, but there's no way I'd put him out there now. Once his speed decreases, he won't be able to make up for his poor routes. 

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Ted Williams should have played CF. What were they thinking? 

They were thinking they had Dom, and Jimmy there.🤔

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 hours ago, Hitch said:

I'm not one who thinks we should trade Duran for prospects. But he is the DH unless performance or injury dictates otherwise. Which is a pretty good place to be. 

I do see the merit in trading him for a position of need if the return is right.

The question we already know the answer to: the Sox are still missing a consistent longball threat in the heart of the order, but is there really any body out there worth trading Duran for, and losing his unique offensive skills?

Both Duran's extra base speed and another guy's all-or-nothing power can contribute to a balanced offensive attack. Swapping one for the other doesn't upgrade what Boston chose to ignore this winter.

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The question we already know the answer to: the Sox are still missing a consistent longball threat in the heart of the order, but is there really any body out there worth trading Duran for, and losing his unique offensive skills?

Both Duran's extra base speed and another guy's all-or-nothing power can contribute to a balanced offensive attack. Swapping one for the other doesn't upgrade what Boston chose to ignore this winter.

I don’t think they chose to ignore it, but just couldn’t find the right bargin.