A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

38 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

His best OPS season was '23 when he only had a 27% called 3rd strike %. I believe the higher % shows more passivity at the plate. I want him to be more aggressive and show off his power rather than look for a walk. 

If his overall career looking strike % is 26.8% with any count, why is it 32.9% with 2 strikes? Shouldn't it be lower if he knows the zone so well? It's because he's actively looking for a walk rather than fouling off or driving a pitch.  

This reminds me of posters saying Devers needed to change his approach.

Yes, it would be nice if he didn't swing at pitches low and away, but changing his approach might mess up the good that comes with his approach.

I'm not sure if tinkering with Casas approach would work. In theory, yet, swing more often.

I'm not sure he's thinking "I want a walk." I think his approach is, I'm not swinging at pitches I don't like and think will be called balls. He misreads some of those "close pitches" as being balls, when they are stikes.

I like his approach. He hits 30+ Hrs per 650 with this approach. He has a .350 OBP which was closer to .360 before his disaster 2025 season. I'll take a few extra called third strikes rather than seem him mess with the success.

We have no other batters on our team that have proven they can hit at a 30 HR pace and have an OBP near .350,

[drewski6]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

This reminds me of posters saying Devers needed to change his approach.

Yes, it would be nice if he didn't swing at pitches low and away, but changing his approach might mess up the good that comes with his approach.

I'm not sure if tinkering with Casas approach would work. In theory, yet, swing more often.

I'm not sure he's thinking "I want a walk." I think his approach is, I'm not swinging at pitches I don't like and think will be called balls. He misreads some of those "close pitches" as being balls, when they are stikes.

I like his approach. He hits 30+ Hrs per 650 with this approach. He has a .350 OBP which was closer to .360 before his disaster 2025 season. I'll take a few extra called third strikes rather than seem him mess with the success.

We have no other batters on our team that have proven they can hit at a 30 HR pace and have an OBP near .350,

Sure, we dont know whats in his head.  But I hope its not what some old school minded folks want it to be.

It should be "no to that pitch, I cant really drive it. I think a better one is coming"  "no, not that one either, I was looking for a fastball and got a change and it was a good pitch selection and I cant adjust in time , wait for the next one"

Then if you find yourself 3-1 or 3-2 and you get a ball in the dirt, you TAKE your walk.  Its DISAPPOINTING but the best you could have done.  Unless you are a noodlebat, then you celebrate.  But good hitters should not being trying to walk or even drive a pitch count up.  Thats like for guys who are out there for their glove, but they are trying to contribute anything offensively.  Im not saying good hitters shouldnt ever take a walk.  Its like folding in poker.  Sometimes you gotta do it, but its not the goal.

Going up there to work a count or draw a walk or even sell out for contact (let the ball get deep, slap it oppo)  is SUCH a "play to not lose" mentality.  Play to win. Go up there hungry and confident.

Pass on pitches because you are looking to crush one and that aint it.  Not because "if I see 5 pitches, IVe done my job". Thats nerd talk.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Sure, we dont know whats in his head.  But I hope its not what some old school minded folks want it to be.

It should be "no to that pitch, I cant really drive it. I think a better one is coming"  "no, not that one either, I was looking for a fastball and got a change and it was a good pitch selection and I cant adjust in time , wait for the next one"

Then if you find yourself 3-1 or 3-2 and you get a ball in the dirt, you TAKE your walk.  Its DISAPPOINTING but the best you could have done.  Unless you are a noodlebat, then you celebrate.  But good hitters should not being trying to walk or even drive a pitch count up.  Thats like for guys who are out there for their glove, but they are trying to contribute anything offensively.  Im not saying good hitters shouldnt ever take a walk.  Its like folding in poker.  Sometimes you gotta do it, but its not the goal.

Going up there to work a count or draw a walk or even sell out for contact (let the ball get deep, slap it oppo)  is SUCH a "play to not lose" mentality.  Play to win. Go up there hungry and confident.

Pass on pitches because you are looking to crush one and that aint it.  Not because "if I see 5 pitches, IVe done my job". Thats nerd talk.

Yes, we don't know what's in his head.

We do know he hits 30 Hrs per 650, so he must swing at enough pitches to get that great result. His judgement on pitches taken must not be too bad, if his OBP is near .350.

His results are more than good enough for me to say, "Leave well enough alone."

We have batters with bigger "issues" like Story, who K's way too much and has a low OBP. At best he hits 25 HRs per 650.

We have Rafaela who has improved from historically bad at K vs BB rates to just awful.

We have Duran, Mayer and Abreu who have had awful splits vs lefties, and Romy, who until 2025 was awful vs RHPs.

Narvaez is unknown, at this point. Contreras might be our most complete batter- splits wise, some power, decent OBP...

Anthony offers the most hope.

Campbell might bounce back.

Casas is our best proven batter, when healthy. He's the last guy I ask to do anything different except maybe get into better shape and try to not get hurt.

[vegasbob]

This year is quickly shaping up for Casas as another where he won't  get 650 PA's , so his real contribution to the team is diminished due to last year's injury.    

I am looking for Casas to stay  on the IL and then at Worcester for at least 3 months, near to the time Breslow makes a move on Masa, or someone else's injury open a slot for Triston.   

[mvp 78]

42 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

This reminds me of posters saying Devers needed to change his approach.

Difference being that Devers had more than one good season. 

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, vegasbob said:

This year is quickly shaping up for Casas as another where he won't  get 650 PA's , so his real contribution to the team is diminished due to last year's injury.    

I am looking for Casas to stay  on the IL and then at Worcester for at least 3 months, near to the time Breslow makes a move on Masa, or someone else's injury open a slot for Triston.   

I'd keep him down until ASB unless he's absolutely demolishing the ball. He's missed so much ball that he just needs to play and get back to 100%.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Difference being that Devers had more than one good season. 

That is a difference, but Casas has had this approach through the minors and 3 partial seasons in MLB at pretty much the same success rate.

Of course, if he does not have the same success, the whole point changes.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

That is a difference, but Casas has had this approach through the minors and 3 partial seasons in MLB at pretty much the same success rate.

Of course, if he does not have the same success, the whole point changes.

His success rate was worse in the partial seasons IMO ('24 much worse xSLG, xWOBA, k%). 

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Exactly, its this OBP is king mentality that is hurting his overall production.  The Yankees arent celebrating in the dugout when Aaron Judge gets walked.

If walking Judge was a net negative for the NYY, wouldn't other teams walk him every PA?

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Harper is overrated and is a LHB. I'd rather keep the short term contract in Contreras.  Don't see DD taking the last two deals. 

I wouldn't give up anything.  He's owed $150M+.  Assuming he ages normally, he'll have to be about the best player in BB over the next three years in order to earn his salary.

[JoeBrady]

6 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Casas? Should be swinging. Working a long count? Fine. Watching a close called 3rd strike?

I think of it differently. 

• Don't swing at anything borderline until you have two strikes.
• Until you have 2 strikes, swing hard at anything you like.
• This one drives me crazy, but at 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, and 3-1, don't swing at a pitch you cannot drive.  Every single game, often with Story, I'm thinking to myself, "what did you think you were going to do with that pitch?  The upside is a swing-and-miss, and the downside is a ground-out to 2nd.'  If you aren't going to strike out, then give the pitcher his due, and hope for an easier pitch next time.
• The rest is mostly noise.  Taking strike 3 right down the middle is an issue.  But if the count is 2-2, and the pitch is tough and on the border, I have no problem taking the pitch.

But the bottom line for me is, pitchers don't usually strike the hitter out.  The hitter strikes themselves out.  The strike zone is not that large.  If you swing at nothing but strikes, you won't strike out that often.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

His success rate was worse in the partial seasons IMO ('24 much worse xSLG, xWOBA, k%). 

So? Is that supposed to mean that is who he is doomed to be forever?

I don't put a ton of faith in small sample sizes, like you seem to do.

Tristan's numbers from '22 to '24 is a sample size over 900 PAs. That's larger than the Dalbec one some got all goo-goo gah-gah over or Will-da-Beast Middlebrooks.

I am fully prepared for Casas to never regain what he did over those 3 partial seasons, but if we had 9 guys do that, we'd have the best offense in MLB. He's one of the last batters I think needs help with his approach. Anthony is the one ahead of him. 

If it ain't broke- don't fix it.

If he struggles in 2026, then hell yes, try to fix it.

[notin]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Difference being that Devers had more than one good season. 

Every struggling hitter can get free advice on hitting major league pitching on this board…

[moonslav59]

59 minutes ago, notin said:

Every struggling hitter can get free advice on hitting major league pitching on this board…

Some of it better than their pitching coaches advice!

LOL

[mvp 78]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

So? Is that supposed to mean that is who he is doomed to be forever?

It means he's only be good in one year. In that year, he had a lower called 3rd strike %. 

[drewski6]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Some of it better than their pitching coaches advice!

LOL

Doubt that.

[mvp 78]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Some of it better than their pitching coaches advice!

LOL

If Crochet wants to start throwing underhanded, I have some tips. 🥎

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

It means he's only be good in one year. In that year, he had a lower called 3rd strike %. 

One out of one, yes.

His other two partial seasons were pretty good, despite the higher k rate.

2022: .766 OPS (.358 OBP and over 30 HRs per 650.) Not bad.

2024: .800 OPS (.337 OBP and 35+ HRs per 650.) Pretty damn good.

[JoeBrady]

35 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

One out of one, yes.

His other two partial seasons were pretty good, despite the higher k rate.

2022: .766 OPS (.358 OBP and over 30 HRs per 650.) Not bad.

2024: .800 OPS (.337 OBP and 35+ HRs per 650.) Pretty damn good.

FWIW, I am more concerned about his declining EV.  At his age, that seems correctable.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

FWIW, I am more concerned about his declining EV.  At his age, that seems correctable.

His sample size was small in '25 and '24. It is a concern, but maybe just a slump or a slow starter.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

One out of one, yes.

His other two partial seasons were pretty good, despite the higher k rate.

2022: .766 OPS (.358 OBP and over 30 HRs per 650.) Not bad.

2024: .800 OPS (.337 OBP and 35+ HRs per 650.) Pretty damn good.

Per 650? His career high is 502!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

766 is what Sal Frelick, PCA and Ian Happ hit. Guys that can actually field a position. It would have been 9th on the Red Sox last season. 800 is basically what Nate Lowe did for the Red Sox in a partial season. He was given an MiLB contract because 1B guys have little to no value anymore, especially ones that don't field very well. 

[mvp 78]

31 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

FWIW, I am more concerned about his declining EV.  At his age, that seems correctable.

Ever the eternal optimist:

'23: 91.1

'24: 90.2, due to the injury

'25: 87.6, due to all his games being played in bad weather Mar/Apr

[moonslav59]

48 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Per 650? His career high is 502!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

It's a way of judging the pace he hits HRs. It's not a projection.

You know this.

[drewski6]

30 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It's a way of judging the pace he hits HRs. It's not a projection.

You know this.

Fine. Whatever. Just dont use Casas as an excuse to trade Duran or expect Casas to save the season.

Casas is in the "whatever we get from him is gravy" category for this year, but I do agree that could be a lot of gravy.

Personally, I think that if anybody is going to be the guy who is like "im a superstar hitter, and IM gonna save ur season and all of y'all mofos need to FULL STOP the dirsrespect" - is Duran. ANthony second. Abreu third.  And this is why its a good thing we didnt trade one of them.

[drewski6]

The best thing that Breslow did this offseason is not trade any of : Duran, Anthony, Abreu

But I dont really mean that as a knock.  He made a lot of moves, and he impressively held onto to the dudes he needed to hold on to (not sure if that was by design or luck)

Kind of like how DD somehow kept the prospects worth keeping while making a lot of moves (and similarly Im not sure how much of that was design or luck, e.g. other teams asking for the wrong prospect)

[mvp 78]

24 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

The best thing that Breslow did this offseason is not trade any of : Duran, Anthony, Abreu

Think of all the prospects he could have gotten for Anthony though. 😍

[moonslav59]

56 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Fine. Whatever. Just dont use Casas as an excuse to trade Duran or expect Casas to save the season.

Casas is in the "whatever we get from him is gravy" category for this year, but I do agree that could be a lot of gravy.

Personally, I think that if anybody is going to be the guy who is like "im a superstar hitter, and IM gonna save ur season and all of y'all mofos need to FULL STOP the dirsrespect" - is Duran. ANthony second. Abreu third.  And this is why its a good thing we didnt trade one of them.

I merely said the mix of 4 guys is not as big a step down and the gain we'd get from adding KMarte or Neto over Mayer/Durbin/IKF or DHam, had we not made the trade for Durbin.

I don't want to trade one of our best bats. I just think we are wasting Duran (or Anthony) at DH. Duran's value as an OF'er is much higher to another team than to us as a DH.

[moonslav59]

55 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

The best thing that Breslow did this offseason is not trade any of : Duran, Anthony, Abreu

 

Rafaela is my favorite Sox player, right now, but I think I was one of the few posters who suggested trading him to keep the OF offense strong and to help add some beef to the infield.

[JoeBrady]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I just think we are wasting Duran (or Anthony) at DH. Duran's value as an OF'er is much higher to another team than to us as a DH.

Yes, but there is also a decent chance we get rid of Masa.  If/when that happens, Duran could easily a 45-game outfielder, plus injury insurance, etc.  That can't be commingled with someone that is a pure DH like Masa, Devers, Schwarber, etc.  He's obviously worth more as a CF for Cincy or Pitt, but he is also worth more than the usual DH valuation.

[JoeBrady]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Rafaela is my favorite Sox player, right now, but I think I was one of the few posters who suggested trading him to keep the OF offense strong and to help add some beef to the infield.

I agree completely.  Watching Ceddanne is like watching a Van Gogh.  But I could sell my Van Gogh for something that fits my collection better.