A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[JoeBrady]

4 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The Sox were 8-12 in extras last year. If they just flipped those numbers,

The top 3 HR teams were collectively under .500 in extras.  The top-3 OBP teams were well over .500 in extras.

[notin]

20 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

The top 3 HR teams were collectively under .500 in extras.  The top-3 OBP teams were well over .500 in extras.

The Sox are likely neither.

But I do think it’s time they paid attention to the bulllpen.  The biggest name added to it so far this off-season is Ryan Watson…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

13 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

The top 3 HR teams were collectively under .500 in extras.  The top-3 OBP teams were well over .500 in extras.

Neither of those specialties is paramount to scoring a Ghost Runner. 

It's all about making contact and not striking out. The baseball world raved about the Blue Jays' ability to do both for a month last October.

Toronto led the AL in batting average -- 11 points higher than runner-up Boston -- but the Jays also whiffed over 300 times less (actually, only 3 more than the Royals, the club with the least Ks).

The AL champs were 10-4 in extra innings... and should have won the final game if their third base coach let newest Red Sox IKF take a bigger lead and run on contact.

[notin]

2 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Neither of those specialties is paramount to scoring a Ghost Runner. 

It's all about making contact and not striking out. The baseball world raved about the Blue Jays' ability to do both for a month last October.

Toronto led the AL in batting average -- 11 points higher than runner-up Boston -- but the Jays also whiffed over 300 times less (actually, only 3 more than the Royals, the club with the least Ks).

The AL champs were 10-4 in extra innings... and should have won the final game if their third base coach let newest Red Sox IKF take a bigger lead and run on contact.

OBP is probably more paramount, but ideally  batting average.  Get a hit and score the guy.  Nothing more frustrating than watching the ghost runner not advance after a strikeout and grounder to shortstop…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, notin said:

OBP is probably more paramount, but ideally  batting average.  Get a hit and score the guy.  Nothing more frustrating than watching the ghost runner not advance after a strikeout and grounder to shortstop…

Like I said yesterday, OBP can also be detrimental to the GHOST. If the first guy walks, it just sets up a force at 3rd or worse, a double play, for the next batter,

Managers of the defense always have that option of intentional walks or intentionally throwing nothing in the strike zone, depending on who's due up in the batting order. 

Or as we saw last year -- when hitters couldn't touch the ball -- it was the Red Sox...

[moonslav59]

We are going to need better than projected OBP and HRs, IMO.

[moonslav59]

Fangraph's projected OBPs:

.367 Anthony

.344 Contreras (Will ne bat 2nd, 3rd or 4th?)

.340 Casas (could be our savior)

.338 Yoshida (may be on the bench)

.335 Campbell (may be in AAA)

.334 Durbin

.332 Abreu

.327 to .329 Sogard, Gasper & Thaiss

.326 Duran

TEAM: .324

.319 Monasterio & Seigler

.312 Romy & Narvaez

.303-.305 Rafaela & Wong

.302 Mayer

.299 Story

.296 Kiner-Falefa

SLG

.446 Abreu

.445 Contreras

.441 Anthony & Duran

.433 Casas & Romy

.428 Rafaela

.422 Yoshida (Higher than Story???)

TEAM .418

.416 Story

.401 Mayer

.395 Durbin

.380 KC & Wong

.375 Narvaez

.336 I K-F

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Looking forward to the WBC to see Red Sox in early action vs. opponents trying to win. 

Our four outfielders (five counting Yoshida) will all be playing for separate teams, so they can contribute without trying to beat each other out for PT.

Really glad Anthony chosen for the USA experience, reunited with Bregman and the influence of other mentor types like Judge, Harper, Schwarber etc -- plus, hitting coach Matt Holliday, a guy Roman has already taken offseason BP with (along with his sons). 

Instead of the pressure of being The Guy in Fort Myers, Anthony can just be himself among a roster full of guys reminding him to do just that.

Same holds true for Abreu on Venezuela, who'll be able to bond with new teammate and veteran Contreras, as well as hitting coach Miggie Cabrera... and Rafaela on the Netherlands, who'll play with Bogaerts for Manager/Ceddanne idol Andruw Jones... and even Duran for Mexico, who'll play with Rowdy Tellez, a dude actually bigger than him.

Yoshida will also get the opportunity to school Ohtani on not whiffing and just making contact. Mainly, Yoshida -- the last WBC's RBI leader -- will actually get to play!

[moonslav59]

Fangraphs project FIPs:

2.82 Crochet

2.87 Chapman

3.18 Whitlock

3.50 Gray

3.61 Suarez

3.65 Moran (Surprised?)

TEAM 3.76

3.77 Early

3.91 Sandoval

3.93 Slaten

3.95 Tolle

4.14 Bello

4.15 Weissert

4.22 Watson

4.24 Oviedo & Crawford

NYY: 3.26 Bednar, 3.39 Cruz, 3.43 Fried, 3.52 Doval, 3.92 Bird, 3.99 Rodon, 4.00 Cole (TEAM 4.03)

TOR: 3.54 Cease, 3.59 Varland, 3.60 Hoffma, 3.73 Bieber (IL) 3.81 Yesavage & Nance, 3.83 Garcia, 3.84 Gausman, 3.85 Little (TEAM 3.95)

BAL (TEAM 4.13) 3.14 Bautista, 3.38 Helsley, 3.55 Bradish, 3.76 Kittredge, 3.77 Cano, 3.97 Enns...4.08 Rogers

[Randy Red Sox]

On 2/9/2026 at 8:08 AM, mvp 78 said:

Increase the bb rate. Pop a few more dingers over the Monster. If he keeps the same defense and running metrics, he'll do just fine. 

i don't mind the Durbin trade at all as long as he doesn't block Mayer. The IKF signing is a head scratcher for  me just a day or 2 earlier. 6 million is pretty high if he is just going to a backup.

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i don't mind the Durbin trade at all as long as he doesn't block Mayer. The IKF signing is a head scratcher for  me just a day or 2 earlier. 6 million is pretty high if he is just going to a backup.

$6 million is not high for a bench player.

IKF has been worth $10.25 the last several years

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

$6 million is not high for a bench player.

IKF has been worth $10.25 the last several years

I'd go so far as to say he is more important to us than other teams.  We have an injury-prone Story & Mayer, an unproven Mayer, and a second year Durbin.  I'd be a little surprised of IKF doesn't get 250-300 ABs.

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i don't mind the Durbin trade at all as long as he doesn't block Mayer. The IKF signing is a head scratcher for  me just a day or 2 earlier. 6 million is pretty high if he is just going to a backup.

Durbin is not blocking Mayer, but he could be insurance. Mayer will get as long a look as KC got.

Kiner-Falefa is an expensive utility guy, but with injury concerns for Story, Mayer & Romy, it's a great idea. Even if Romy is 100%, I K-F should play enough.

[drewski6]

On 2/14/2026 at 1:21 PM, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

That's what I mean. At that "risk," a guy riding the pine as an occasional righty DH or pinch-hitter is worth it. And if he brings a beer into the dugout and this time actually opens it, send him packing. Or share it..

And hopefully Durbin's contact skills will help change the culture in situations like extra innings. OPS isn't the end-all be-all stat for scoring the Ghost Runner because drawing a walk with 1B open can actually hurt by setting up the D for a force out or worse, a DP. Plus, while the longball is desired, guys trying too hard for it and whiffing defeats the purpose of moving the ectoplasmic man around the bases.

The Sox were 8-12 in extras last year. If they just flipped those numbers, they were right in the mix for the division crown.

I dont even really like the phrase "drawing walks" implying that its some kind of goal/achieving. To me, most of the time, its akin to settling.  Take your walks, but they should only be drawn situationally.  Like down by 2 runs late.  Or speedster leading off an inning.  Or a #8/9 hitter in there for his glove.

I dont like the mentality of approaching the box and hoping to grind out a walk.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I dont even really like the phrase "drawing walks" implying that its some kind of goal/achieving. To me, most of the time, its akin to settling.  Take your walks, but they should only be drawn situationally.  Like down by 2 runs late.  Or speedster leading off an inning.  Or a #8/9 hitter in there for his glove.

I dont like the mentality of approaching the box and hoping to grind out a walk.

Depends on the hitter TBH. Casas? Should be swinging. Working a long count? Fine. Watching a close called 3rd strike? Not ok. 

Working the count is fine these days with starting pitchers no longer able to go beyond 100 pitches. If the team has a bad bullpen, try to get to it early.

[moonslav59]

54 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Depends on the hitter TBH. Casas? Should be swinging. Working a long count? Fine. Watching a close called 3rd strike? Not ok. 

Hitting is not easy.

Sometimes the pitch that ends up being a close called third strike doesn't look like it is going to be, until it's too late to decide to swing.

I'm totally fine with the Casas approach. He has a nice OBP and ISO/SLG. When healthy, he might be our best overall hitter.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

50 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Working the count is fine these days with starting pitchers no longer able to go beyond 100 pitches. If the team has a bad bullpen, try to get to it early.

"Working" a starter to drive up his pitch count for an earlier exit is not so ideal nowadays. There are just too many fresh arms pushing 100 mph coming out of bullpens to make for pleasurable at bats.

The Billy Beane days of On Base won't disappear, but the best approach is to go up there looking to pulverize a tired starter leaking pitches into happy zones.

A walk just isn't as good as a hit that advances a runner more than one base.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

"Working" a starter to drive up his pitch count for an earlier exit is not so ideal nowadays. There are just too many fresh arms pushing 100 mph coming out of bullpens to make for pleasurable at bats.

The Billy Beane days of On Base won't disappear, but the best approach is to go up there looking to pulverize a tired starter leaking pitches into happy zones.

A walk just isn't as good as a hit that advances a runner more than one base.

That was one by product of walking a lot and extending pitch counts, but getting a walk is still extremely valuable. 

How many times do we curse when our pitcher walks the first batter of an inning? It seems like it often leads to a run. Walks with a man on 1st or 1st, 2nd and maybe even 3rd do advance a runner(s.) 

Yes, in many situations a hit is better than a BB, but many times a single does not move a runner two bases- it acts just like a walk.

Also, not every team has a great 5th or 6th inning RP'er. In fact, most do not, They are more often failed starters coming into the game.

This team might have a better chance scoring runs, if we work the counts more than we swing for the fences.

[mvp 78]

26 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Hitting is not easy.

Sometimes the pitch that ends up being a close called third strike doesn't look like it is going to be, until it's too late to decide to swing.

I'm totally fine with the Casas approach. He has a nice OBP and ISO/SLG. When healthy, he might be our best overall hitter.

Here's his k looking % by year. 23.1 is the MLB average. 

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Here's his k looking % by year. 23.1 is the MLB average. 

Yes. I'm fully aware he watches more called 3rd strikes than the league- way more, but these are the results of that, as well...

OBP

.358 in '22>>> MLB .312

.367 in '23>>>MLB .320

.337 in '24>>> MLB .312

SLG

.408 in '22>>> MLB .395

.490 in '23>>> MLB .414

.462 in '24>>> MLB .399

ISO

.211 in '22>>> MLB .152

.226 in '23>>> MLB .166

.222 in '24>>> MLB .156

Give me 9 Tristan Casas from '22 to '24 and we lead MLB in every category, except SBs and low K rate.

 

[UtahSox]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Gee, I wonder who it was that Dombrowski didn't get along with in this organization and was annoyed that would show up at whole bunch of meetings unannounced... 🤔

Speaking of Dombrowski……. Bryce Harper anyone?

I know this exercise is as useless as tits on a boar, I just can’t think of a better fit than Harper and Boston.

1-As Bryce turned 33 last week, and still has 6 years left. (Big NO NO for JH) not a bad contract at all. 

2-has a no trade clause (Big NO NO for ???),

3- is a position player ( big NO NO for Beta Breslow)

4- an opinionated player (BIG NO NO for FSG) 

 

yet here I go:

Bryce for Contreras + Crawford+ Cash?

Bryce for Casas+ Duran+ Yoshida?

Bryce for Abreu+ Casas+ Yoshida+ Cash?

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes. I'm fully aware he watches more called 3rd strikes than the league- way more, but these are the results of that, as well...

OBP

.358 in '22>>> MLB .312

.367 in '23>>>MLB .320

.337 in '24>>> MLB .312

SLG

.408 in '22>>> MLB .395

.490 in '23>>> MLB .414

.462 in '24>>> MLB .399

ISO

.211 in '22>>> MLB .152

.226 in '23>>> MLB .166

.222 in '24>>> MLB .156

Give me 9 Tristan Casas from '22 to '24 and we lead MLB in every category, except SBs and low K rate.

 

His best OPS season was '23 when he only had a 27% called 3rd strike %. I believe the higher % shows more passivity at the plate. I want him to be more aggressive and show off his power rather than look for a walk. 

If his overall career looking strike % is 26.8% with any count, why is it 32.9% with 2 strikes? Shouldn't it be lower if he knows the zone so well? It's because he's actively looking for a walk rather than fouling off or driving a pitch.  

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Speaking of Dombrowski……. Bryce Harper anyone?

I know this exercise is as useless as tits on a boar,

1-As Bryce turned 33 last week, and still has 6 years left. (Big NO NO for JH) not a bad contract at all. 

2-has a no trade clause (Big NO NO for ???),

3- is a position player ( big NO NO for Beta Breslow)

4- an opinionated player (BIG NO NO for FSG) 

 

yet here I go:

Bryce for Contreras + Crawford+ Cash?

Bryce for Casas+ Duran+ Yoshida?

Bryce for Abreu+ Casas+ Yoshida+ Cash?

Harper is overrated and is a LHB. I'd rather keep the short term contract in Contreras.  Don't see DD taking the last two deals. 

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

His best OPS season was '23 when he only had a 27% called 3rd strike %. I believe the higher % shows more passivity at the plate. I want him to be more aggressive and show off his power rather than look for a walk. 

If his overall career looking strike % is 26.8% with any count, why is it 32.9% with 2 strikes? Shouldn't it be lower if he knows the zone so well? It's because he's actively looking for a walk rather than fouling off or driving a pitch.  

Exactly, its this OBP is king mentality that is hurting his overall production.  The Yankees arent celebrating in the dugout when Aaron Judge gets walked.

[drewski6]

If you are going up there trying to draw a walk, it hurts you in more places than just called strikes looking, even though I agree that is one place where it hurts you in a measurable way.

[Randy Red Sox]

20 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I'd go so far as to say he is more important to us than other teams.  We have an injury-prone Story & Mayer, an unproven Mayer, and a second year Durbin.  I'd be a little surprised of IKF doesn't get 250-300 ABs.

you do raise some valid points but don't forget that Mayer was ranked the #1 prospect in his draft year. We should not be giving up on him simply because he has had some injuries. I don't doubt for a second though that IKF won't get at least 300 AB's which likely won't be a good thing.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Exactly, its this OBP is king mentality that is hurting his overall production.  The Yankees arent celebrating in the dugout when Aaron Judge gets walked.

It's not even OBP. He wants to be seen as king of the k zone. That's why he yells ball after every pitch. He wants to look like the smartest boy in the batter's box. I know he's a unique guy, I just wish he was a little more aggressive. I wish players watched less called 3rd strikes and knew how to foul off a pitch like they used to. 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Randy Red Sox said:

you do raise some valid points but don't forget that Mayer was ranked the #1 prospect in his draft year. We should not be giving up on him simply because he has had some injuries. I don't doubt for a second though that IKF won't get at least 300 AB's which likely won't be a good thing.

If people were giving up on Mayer, they wouldn't be projecting him to start and would be throwing him in every imaginable trade. 

[drewski6]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It's not even OBP. He wants to be seen as king of the k zone. That's why he yells ball after every pitch. He wants to look like the smartest boy in the batter's box. I know he's a unique guy, I just wish he was a little more aggressive. I wish players watched less called 3rd strikes and knew how to foul off a pitch like they used to. 

I want him to put the ball in play before theres 2 strikes.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

58 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

This team might have a better chance scoring runs, if we work the counts more than we swing for the fences.

Or -- since most can't reach the fences very often anyway -- just cut down on those swings and stop pulling your heads so you can see the bat actually touch the ball.