A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[drewski6]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

“What he did last year, the last three months, he was one of the best hitters in the big leagues,” Cora told Smith.

Story 6/21-EOY

84 G

15 HR (38th)

58 RBI (14th)

836 OPS (57th)

2.8 fWAR (23rd)

836 only good for 57th?

[JoeBrady]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Ian Browne pumping Mikey Romero's tires this early in camp is a little silly.

I was never a Romero fan, but he has looked better than I expected.  He threw someone out well on the SS said of 2nd (he was playing 2nd).

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

I was never a Romero fan, but he has looked better than I expected.  He threw someone out well on the SS said of 2nd (he was playing 2nd).

Does he lift weights and hit lefties?

[drewski6]

Im gonna go lift some weights, while I do it, Im going to hope that Mayer at some point today (at any point) lifted weights for even 15 mins

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, drewski6 said:

836 only good for 57th?

27th among those with 300+ PAs

(out of 67)

.826 7/1/25>

[JoeBrady]

5 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Does he lift weights and hit lefties?

I haven't paid enough attention to him because of his K/W issues, but doesn't look skinny.

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Does he lift weights and hit lefties?

He hit LHP decently in '25. Elevated k rate, less power, but his OPS was about even. In previous years, it was pretty rough. With his swing and miss, it's hard to say what it'd look like in MLB. I think he needs another season in AAA TBH. 

[mvp 78]

9 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I haven't paid enough attention to him because of his K/W issues, but doesn't look skinny.

He started off pretty skinny when he was drafted, but has put on some weight. He wasn't initially projected to be a power guy from what I remember. 

[notin]

25 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He started off pretty skinny when he was drafted, but has put on some weight. He wasn't initially projected to be a power guy from what I remember. 

I thought more like a gap power guy.  And he came right out of the gate with a .874 OPS that first year…

[moonslav59]

45 minutes ago, notin said:

I thought more like a gap power guy.  And he came right out of the gate with a .874 OPS that first year…

Yes, but with 1 HR in 87 PAs. He did slug .506, though.

[moonslav59]

It looks like Cora likes...

1. Anthony

2. Story

3. Duran

4. Contreras

5. Abreu

6. Durbin

I hope he slots Rafaela 9th, but we've seen him bat 7th in ST'ing.

I wonder if he tweaks things vs lefties, especially when and if Romy returns and shows he still rakes lefties.

[moonslav59]

Oviedo starts today.

Let's see what the big guy can do...

[moonslav59]

I've talked about the critical view one could take at the Yankee roster, based mostly on age and injury situations, and now a look at some Blue Jays issues:

TOR won 94 games, last year, after winning 74 in 2024. Their Pythagorean W-L was 88-74, so to start with, maybe 2025 was a bit lucky and hard to repeat.

Springer had an amazing year at age 35. I'm doubtful he can repeat that at 36. They have a few other bats in the 30-31 age group, but nothing too serious. TOR had 6 batters with 500+ PAs, 2 more over 350 and 5 between 175 and 300. They did not need much extended depth. Their top 7 batters by PAs all hit over .710, and they had 5 batters over .750. Gimenez .598, Straw .680 and Santander .565 were their worst 3 batters out of their top 12 PA players. They lost their #2 PA guy, Bichette (.840) and basically replaced him with Okamoto, who looks promising, but is hardly a known producer in MLB.

The pitching side has some serious age-related concerns. Yes, they lost 80 year old Bassitt, but his numbers will not be easy to replace. Their ace, Gausman & Tyler Rogers are 35. Hoffman is 33. Berrios & Ponce turn 32 in April/May. Bieber, Cease & Lauer are 30. These are their best pitchers.

Bieber starts the season on the IL, and Sox fans should know how that usually works out. Cease is heir big hope, but he is a far cry from the great pitcher he was back in 2022. People claim 2025 was a down or bad luck season, but he has a higher ERA in 2023. His 2023-2024 combined numbers:

21-20 4.00 (106 ERA+) and 3.40 FIP. That's pretty good, but not ace material. People said Gray was not a number 2, and his numbers from 2023-2025 are better. 2023-2025:

Cease: 29-32 4.18 (102 ERA+) 3.45 FIP

S Gray: 35-25 3.63 (116) 3.11

Suarez: 28-22 3.58 (120) 3.46

I'm not trying to argue Gausman and Cease are not any good, but both are bigger question marks than Crochet & Suarez, and I'll take Gray & Bello over Berrios and Ponce, too.

The Jays have a good chance at having a good or very good season, but I think they look worse than 2025.

[moonslav59]

Who gets more PAs in 2025?

Casas or Masa?

Abreu or Duran?

Romy or Monasterio?

_____________________

Who gets more IP?

Gray or Suarez?

Bello or Gray/Suarez?

Oviedo or Crawford?

Crawford or Sandoval?

Slaten or Weissert?

Watson or Moran?

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Who gets more PAs in 2025?

Casas or Masa?

Abreu or Duran?

Romy or Monasterio?

_____________________

Who gets more IP?

Gray or Suarez?

Bello or Gray/Suarez?

Oviedo or Crawford?

Crawford or Sandoval?

Slaten or Weissert?

Watson or Moran?

Counting BOS only? 

Masa

Abreu

Monasterio

Gray

Gray

Oviedo

Weissert

Watson

[notin]

18 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It looks like Cora likes...

1. Anthony

2. Story

3. Duran

4. Contreras

5. Abreu

6. Durbin

I hope he slots Rafaela 9th, but we've seen him bat 7th in ST'ing.

I wonder if he tweaks things vs lefties, especially when and if Romy returns and shows he still rakes lefties.

The Sox open with Cincinnati, where they should face lefties Lodolo and Abbott.  But Houston and SD, the next two opponents, will only have RHP in the rotation.

So against Lodolo and Abbott, do they keep Duran in the third spot? Drop him down? Or use a RHH DH? And who is that? Eaton? Wong? I think they’re better off with Duran at DH than Eaton.  I could see Wong, but that’s a little risky.  (Although with Contreras, IKF, and possibly Siegler, they are not short in emergency catchers.). 
 

Romy doesn’t solve this as he is likely to platoon with a Mayer anyway….

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

The Sox open with Cincinnati, where they should face lefties Lodolo and Abbott.  But Houston and SD, the next two opponents, will only have RHP in the rotation.

So against Lodolo and Abbott, do they keep Duran in the third spot? Drop him down? Or use a RHH DH? And who is that? Eaton? Wong? I think they’re better off with Duran at DH than Eaton.  I could see Wong, but that’s a little risky.  (Although with Contreras, IKF, and possibly Siegler, they are not short in emergency catchers.). 
 

Romy doesn’t solve this as he is likely to platoon with a Mayer anyway….

Duran plays one and sits one vs the LHP in CIN. 

I also think the order will change over time. Duran was the leadoff initially last season, before moving down later on. I think we'll see some adjustments after the first month or two. 

[notin]

53 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Duran plays one and sits one vs the LHP in CIN. 

I also think the order will change over time. Duran was the leadoff initially last season, before moving down later on. I think we'll see some adjustments after the first month or two. 

Sits for who? 

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

Sits for who? 

Monasterio

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Romy doesn’t solve this as he is likely to platoon with a Mayer anyway….

I see Romy doing a lot of DH short-side platooning.  Assuming Mayer is ready, I see IKF platooning with MM. 

But if Romy is out, I don't see any other RH hitters worth platooning at DH.  So I expect Duran to play every game until Romy returns.

[mvp 78]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fitting-jarren-duran-into-the-red-sox-outfield-puzzle/

Interesting note from FanGraphs write up on Duran:

Over the past five seasons, lefties going oppo in Fenway have hit .403 and slugged .641, the highest marks of any permanent ballpark ... Lefties pulling the ball in Fenway hit .332 and slugged .624, not only lower than when they went oppo, but also rates that respectively rank 28th and 30th out of 32 ballparks.

The article mentions that Duran fell back a bit last year as he increased his pull rate and wasn't playing towards Fenway's strengths. Also notes that his range fell off in '25 and that he struggled against breaking pitches more so than in previous years. 

[moonslav59]

It wasn't that long ago when Duran was constantly changing his batting stance and or approach. His defense was a work in progress. Then, it seemed like almost overnight, he turned things around in 2023, before getting hurt, and then had that great 2024 season, where he even fielded very well in CF.

2025 saw a drop off, and I can't help but wonder, if we are back to the inconsistent mode.

I think he'll have fine 2026 season, but I do have serious concerns. I have no confidence in his defense.

[mvp 78]

47 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It wasn't that long ago when Duran was constantly changing his batting stance and or approach. His defense was a work in progress. Then, it seemed like almost overnight, he turned things around in 2023, before getting hurt, and then had that great 2024 season, where he even fielded very well in CF.

2025 saw a drop off, and I can't help but wonder, if we are back to the inconsistent mode.

I think he'll have fine 2026 season, but I do have serious concerns. I have no confidence in his defense.

He had a crazy hot July, but was not great otherwise. Needs to stretch out those hot moments a bit longer. 

[UtahSox]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/48017129/mlb-2026-ranking-baseball-best-lineups-dodgers-mets-mariners-braves-yankees-cubs

[UtahSox]

Just now, UtahSox said:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/48017129/mlb-2026-ranking-baseball-best-lineups-dodgers-mets-mariners-braves-yankees-cubs

Notables:

4) Seattle Mariners 

5) Toronto Blue Jays

8) New York Yankees

12) Baltimore Orioles

19) Our Boston Red Sox

20) LA Angels

21) Tampa Bay Rays

22) Detroit Tigers

 

[mvp 78]

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

He had a crazy hot July, but was not great otherwise. Needs to stretch out those hot moments a bit longer. 

I'm not disagreeing with your point, but I think most batters who had a decent season or better can be seen to have the same one hot streak. 

He id have a 39 game stretch of .966. He was .717 in his first 79 games and ended the season with a .721 OPS over 39 games. While .717 and .721 are not horrible, that was about 75% of his season.

In 2024, he was at .714 after 34 games, then went .935 over a nice 100 game stretch up to the end of AUG. He hit .593 in SEP in 26 games.

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not disagreeing with your point, but I think most batters who had a decent season or better can be seen to have the same one hot streak. 

He id have a 39 game stretch of .966. He was .717 in his first 79 games and ended the season with a .721 OPS over 39 games. While .717 and .721 are not horrible, that was about 75% of his season.

In 2024, he was at .714 after 34 games, then went .935 over a nice 100 game stretch up to the end of AUG. He hit .593 in SEP in 26 games.

A 100 game stretch in '24 is much different than having a good July, right? Like just compare the two seasons: '24 had one month over 800 OPS, '25 had three months over 800 OPS (all over 900). 

[mvp 78]

And in my original post I said he just needs to "stretch out those hot moments a bit longer."

Seems true? That's what worked for him in '24!

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

And in my original post I said he just needs to "stretch out those hot moments a bit longer."

Seems true? That's what worked for him in '24!

I wasn't disagreeing.

That is what he and all batters need to do to improve,