A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[Hugh2]

21 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

With the addition of Durbin, fangraphs now has the Sox projected as 7th best in 2026 fWAR:

57.3 LAD

48.1 TOR

47.5 NYY

47.4 NYM

47.2 ATL

46.8 SEA

46.2 BOS

46.1 PHI

45.4 BAL

44.8 DET

By position:

1st SP (Oviedo with the 5th most IP, then Sandoval & Crawford)

2nd LF (Anthony then Duran)

5th RP

7th RF (Abreu w some Anthony)

7th CF (Ceddanne)

12th 1B (Willson)

15th DH (Mostly Duran, then Masa, Anthony, Willson & Casas)

17th 2B (Mostly Durbin & Romy)

24th 3B (Mostly mayer but Durbin not far away)

25th SS (but don't bring up asking Cora to make a change)

26th Catcher (Narvaez at 1.9 Tied for 17th most)

They would be projected to be 1st or 2nd in every division in baseball other than the A.L. East where they are 3rd. 

To hell with the projections, this team is going to win 95 games. 

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Suarez & Gray dont have to improve on Gio and Bello- they will improve on Gio and Buehler. Bello is still here and moved down a notch.

The Contreras bat should be almost equal to what Breggie gives this year.

It's the Devers and Ref numbers that went unfilled.

We are a better team, IMO- it's just a matter of degree.

STL is worse for RHB than BOS. Conteras should see his numbers increase a little bit from 20 HR, 124 wRC+. He should be a bit better than Bregman was overall (considering the Breggie fell off a cliff after his injury). Maybe he'll be closer to his '24 numbers? IDK.

They believe Anthony will make up for the early season Devers numbers. We'll see! 

Refsnyder? Romy can only hit once in the lineup, so IDK. There's a downgrade somewhere vs LHP.

I think they'll be better defensively, but offensively it's a question mark. Maybe Abreu continues to add HR's. Maybe Rafaela continues to get better across the board. Maybe Mayer starts to figure it out. Maybe Casas comes back healthy and takes over for Masa. Maybe none of those happen. 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

They would be projected to be 1st or 2nd in every division in baseball other than the A.L. East where they are 3rd. 

To hell with the projections, this team is going to win 95 games. 

POOCOTA has them at 82-80. 😎

[Hugh2]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

POOCOTA has them at 82-80. 😎

Well HUGHCOTA has them at 95-67

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Luke Warm to Luke Appling.

Buehler sucked- so did DMay and some of the other pitchers that Gray & Suarez are replacing. Oviedo is a question mark- much like Dobbins, Fitts & Co were, last year. BTW, we also "added" Crawford & Sandoval. I think you are underselling the significance of the rotation upgrades.

I may be underselling the losses on offense, but I have spoken about losing over 1150 PAs from our top 6 batters in 2025 and replacing that with maybe 550-600 PAs from Contreras (who projects to do about the same as Bregman in 2026.)

I hate needing to rely on 300 more PAs from Anthony and 300 more from Mayer to try and replace the 350 from Devers, and 250 from Lowe & Ref, but they may take a bite out of that loss.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Buehler sucked- so did DMay and some of the other pitchers that Gray & Suarez are replacing. Oviedo is a question mark- much like Dobbins, Fitts & Co were, last year. BTW, we also "added" Crawford & Sandoval. I think you are underselling the significance of the rotation upgrades.

I don't underrate Gray and Suarez -- Gray was the first starter on my wish list this offseason because I knew Bloom would slash and burn St. Loo (cuz that's what he do)... plus I got that Looie Tiant vibe watching Ranger blank the Sox last year (though now he can't face them anymore).

But I think some here underrate what Giolito and Bello did last summer. They were pretty good.

I look at it like this: will the Red Sox top five pitchers in '26 outperform their top five from last year? The latter quintet included Crochet-Giolito-Bello and Chapman-Whitlock. If we're honest here, it's going to be very difficult for the '26 mound stars to even exceed themselves.

That's why I believe the key to improvement will be better quality from the #4, 5, 6, 7, 8 guys in the rotation.

[moonslav59]

47 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

 

But I think some here underrate what Giolito and Bello did last summer. They were pretty good.

 

We didn't trade Bello. He's our #4 not our #3, so one can count that as another plus, if you choose to view it that way.

[Old Red]

58 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I don't underrate Gray and Suarez -- Gray was the first starter on my wish list this offseason because I knew Bloom would slash and burn St. Loo (cuz that's what he do)... plus I got that Looie Tiant vibe watching Ranger blank the Sox last year (though now he can't face them anymore).

But I think some here underrate what Giolito and Bello did last summer. They were pretty good.

I look at it like this: will the Red Sox top five pitchers in '26 outperform their top five from last year? The latter quintet included Crochet-Giolito-Bello and Chapman-Whitlock. If we're honest here, it's going to be very difficult for the '26 mound stars to even exceed themselves.

That's why I believe the key to improvement will be better quality from the #4, 5, 6, 7, 8 guys in the rotation.

I think this is a good way to look at it. I’ll be interested to see how the Cro Man does this year after his first heavy workload last year. I also think it will be hard for the Chapman-Whit duo to duplicate last year. Depth has also been a big issue the past few years, and that should be better this year.

[moonslav59]

48 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

 

I look at it like this: will the Red Sox top five pitchers in '26 outperform their top five from last year? The latter quintet included Crochet-Giolito-Bello and Chapman-Whitlock. If we're honest here, it's going to be very difficult for the '26 mound stars to even exceed themselves.

That's why I believe the key to improvement will be better quality from the #4, 5, 6, 7, 8 guys in the rotation.

Let's break down only the SP'er numbers from 2025 vs what 2026 looks like....

IP and ERA

Returning... (Stunningly very little)

205 Crochet 2.59

162 Bello 3.34

19 Early 2.33

10 Tolle 7.84_________

Lost...

The Good: (152 IP)

145 Giolito 3.41

7 Criswell 1.29

The Meh (69 IP)

53 Dobbins 4.25

9 Harrison 4.00

7 de Leon 4.05

The Bad (63 IP)

41 Fitts 4.83 (1.32 WHIP)

22 Newcomb 4.43 (1.96 WHIP)

The UGLY!!! (179 IP)

110 Buehler 5.40

44 Houck 8.04

25 May 5.68

As you can see, we lost more "UGLY!" than "GOOD," and we lost about the same "Meh" as "bad." 

You are focusing on Gio. We didn't lose Bello. We improved by moving him down on notch. Losing Dobbins is maybe the only other meaningful loss, but he wasn't great. The loss of the 2015 Houck and his 44 IP is not being mentioned much, but he really sucked. Newcomb's ERA looked decent but there was a reason we demoted then traded him, and his WHIP highlights why.

Now, we added...

Good

157 Ranger 3.20

40 Oviedo 3.57 (1.21 WHIP)

Meh to Good

181 S Gray

Plus

Crawford (313 IP from '23-'24 w 4.23 ERA/1.12 WHIP)

Sandoval (224 IP '23-'24 w 4.45 ERA/1.51 WHIP & ?236 IP '21-'22 w 3.17 ERA/1.29 WHIP)

To me, the potential for a massive improvement looks highly probable. We lost Gio & Dobbins, but also over 240 IP of bad to ugly. We gained Luis Tiant III and Sunny Gray plus a couple proven starters -returning from injuries- as depth.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

To me, the potential for a massive improvement looks highly probable. We lost Gio & Dobbins, but also over 240 IP of bad to ugly. We gained Luis Tiant III and Sunny Gray plus a couple proven starters -returning from injuries- as depth.

You're certainly entitled to your massive optimism. But to me, what's highly probable is that at least one starter will get hurt and another will underperform -- it just happened last year in Boston with an All-Star starter and another who had just wiped out the Yankees in the World Series...

... and that's where the depth will become the key to the season. One way or the other.

[Old Red]

30 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

You're certainly entitled to your massive optimism. But to me, what's highly probable is that at least one starter will get hurt and another will underperform -- it just happened last year in Boston with an All-Star starter and another who had just wiped out the Yankees in the World Series...

... and that's where the depth will become the key to the season. One way or the other.

Once again I agree. What looks so good on paper, and what actually plays out could be two different things.

[moonslav59]

52 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

You're certainly entitled to your massive optimism. But to me, what's highly probable is that at least one starter will get hurt and another will underperform -- it just happened last year in Boston with an All-Star starter and another who had just wiped out the Yankees in the World Series...

... and that's where the depth will become the key to the season. One way or the other.

I have us ranked about 5th or 6th in MLB. I'm not seeing that as "massive." I had hopes we could get to #3-4 with just 3 major moves. We made one major move (Suarez) and two semi-major moves (Contreras & Gray.)

We need some things to go right, as all teams do. I think we have more fall-back options than most teams, if someone gets hurt, especially with the rotation. Our OF is four FT'ers deep. Suddenly, our infield has decent depth, but is lacking in star power (emphasis on power.)

Our pen looks solid but not very deep.

1B is not very deep, unless Casas and Romy are healthy.

Our catching position has more depth than before.

[JoeBrady]

3 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

They would be projected to be 1st or 2nd in every division in baseball other than the A.L. East where they are 3rd. 

To hell with the projections, this team is going to win 95 games. 

I think we are #2 in BB.  The biggest problem I see is that I rate TO, NYY, and Seattle as about a half-game worse than us.  As the great philosopher Curt Schilling once said 'the team that gets the most starts from their regular rotation will be the team with the best record.

[harmony]

16 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I think we are #2 in BB.  The biggest problem I see is that I rate TO, NYY, and Seattle as about a half-game worse than us.  As the great philosopher Curt Schilling once said 'the team that gets the most starts from their regular rotation will be the team with the best record.

Unless you're the 2024 Seattle Mariners, who missed the postseason despite 149 starts from their five-man starting rotation:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/2024.shtml

In 2024 Seattle won the fewest games (85) of any Mariner team over the past five seasons (90, 90, 88, 85, 90).

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We need some things to go right, as all teams do. I think we have more fall-back options than most teams, if someone gets hurt, especially with the rotation. Our OF is four FT'ers deep. Suddenly, our infield has decent depth, but is lacking in star power (emphasis on power.)

We know that, but apparently the experts at MLB.com don't. They just anointed two Red Sox as the top players at their positions: Duran LF and Chapman RP.

Duran is a good player but we all know his flaws. He can't carry a club like Judge, Cal, Vlad, Gunnar, Bobby, Shohei and Kyle... or Raffy when he gets hot.

This is just the reality of the Red Sox right now. Pitching and defense can win, but only if they're consistently good all season.

 

 

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

We know that, but apparently the experts at MLB.com don't. They just anointed two Red Sox as the top players at their positions: Duran LF and Chapman RP.

Duran is a good player but we all know his flaws. He can't carry a club like Judge, Cal, Vlad, Gunnar, Bobby, Shohei and Kyle... or Raffy when he gets hot.

This is just the reality of the Red Sox right now. Pitching and defense can win, but only if they're consistently good all season.

And the teams with better hitting need to be consistently good at that all season.

[mvp 78]

2025 Red Sox

9-40 when scoring 2 or less runs

27 times scored 1 or less runs (4 shutouts)

 

2024 Red Sox

4-47 when scoring 2 or less runs

31 times scored 1 or less runs (7 shutouts)

 

We'll have to see if the Sox still have about 50 games where they score 2 or less runs or if it increases due to the roster change as some anticipate. 

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

2025 Red Sox

9-40 when scoring 2 or less runs

27 times scored 1 or less runs (4 shutouts)

 

2024 Red Sox

4-47 when scoring 2 or less runs

31 times scored 1 or less runs (7 shutouts)

 

We'll have to see if the Sox still have about 50 games where they score 2 or less runs or if it increases due to the roster change as some anticipate. 

The improved wiing percent due to better pitching in 2025 should be noted, too.

Our record in games scoring 3 or more runs was and can be helped with better pitching, too.

One aspect will become more important: timely hitting.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The improved wiing percent due to better pitching in 2025 should be noted, too.

Our record in games scoring 3 or more runs was and can be helped with better pitching, too.

One aspect will become more important: timely hitting.

Maybe they'll pull out more low scoring wins too. I think it'll be interesting to see if the actually score 2 runs or less more often than in previous years. If it was already about 30% of the time, we can anticipate about that many Gamethreads devolving into "this is Craig's fault" over and over again no matter what. 

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I think we are #2 in BB.  The biggest problem I see is that I rate TO, NYY, and Seattle as about a half-game worse than us.  As the great philosopher Curt Schilling once said 'the team that gets the most starts from their regular rotation will be the team with the best record.

Preemptively pointing to injuries as an excuse should #2 in BB not come to fruition is a masterclass in accountability dodging.

Meanwhile, all reputable sources have us somewhere between 6 and 11. USA Today has us below the Rangers.

[drewski6]

41 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

2025 Red Sox

9-40 when scoring 2 or less runs

27 times scored 1 or less runs (4 shutouts)

 

2024 Red Sox

4-47 when scoring 2 or less runs

31 times scored 1 or less runs (7 shutouts)

 

We'll have to see if the Sox still have about 50 games where they score 2 or less runs or if it increases due to the roster change as some anticipate. 

good traceable metric. I like it. Accountability.

[drewski6]

quantifiable KPI's (key performance indicators) so hot in consulting spaces right now

[mvp 78]

40 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Preemptively pointing to injuries as an excuse should #2 in BB not come to fruition is a masterclass in accountability dodging.

Meanwhile, all reputable sources have us somewhere between 6 and 11. USA Today has us below the Rangers.

USA Today is a reputable source? Is it 1987? 

[drewski6]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

USA Today is a reputable source? Is it 1987? 

I will fall back to all reputable sources have us between 6 and 9 and remove USA today and thier pick of 11.  I dont think its reasonable to have us behind the rangers and o's like they did. Certainly not the rangers.

[Larry Cook]

Shouldn’t we wait to see who is healthy and who is not, before thinking about our 2026 record???

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Preemptively pointing to injuries as an excuse should #2 in BB not come to fruition is a masterclass in accountability dodging.

Meanwhile, all reputable sources have us somewhere between 6 and 11. USA Today has us below the Rangers.

Schilling was 100% correct when he said it.  And it intuitively makes sense.  If the Toronto misses 40 GS from their rotation, and we miss 10, I'd make a significant wager we finish ahead of them.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

And the teams with better hitting need to be consistently good at that all season.

Sure, but here's why everyday regulars win 95% of the MVPs over starting pitchers who play once a week.

No one is going to excel every day, but a line-up of good batters has a better chance of at least a few guys having a night than a pitching staff with an overworked bullpen that has to constantly bail out mediocrity in the rotation from starters who work every 5 days.

[JoeBrady]

11 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Shouldn’t we wait to see who is healthy and who is not, before thinking about our 2026 record???

Not necessarily.  Part of making predictions is to factor in injuries, as well as to factor in depth.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Maybe they'll pull out more low scoring wins too. I think it'll be interesting to see if the actually score 2 runs or less more often than in previous years. If it was already about 30% of the time, we can anticipate about that many Gamethreads devolving into "this is Craig's fault" over and over again no matter what. 

Once the game threads start, we'll hear Cora this and Cora that most often, but I do think we may hear more Brez talk than before.

When we win 2-1 or 3-1, how often will Brez be mentioned?

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Sure, but here's why everyday regulars win 95% of the MVPs over starting pitchers who play once a week.

No one is going to excel every day, but a line-up of good batters has a better chance of at least a few guys having a night than a pitching staff with an overworked bullpen that has to constantly bail out mediocrity in the rotation from starters who work every 5 days.

Batters win the MVP because pitchers have their own award.

MVP Award voters should consider this:

PAs and PAs against

814 Crochet

696 Duran

683 Bello

654 Story

613 Giolito

587 Rafaela

1. Notice crochet with 118 more than Duran.

2. Which 3 were more responsible for us making the playoffs, last year?

Crochet/Bello/Gio or Duran/Story/Rafaela

I rest my case.