A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[JoeBrady]

29 minutes ago, notin said:

You live in a state where people snort cocaine off the backs of alligators

That's why people move to Florida.  If someone wanted to snort coke off the back of an alligator, I think I'd fund the purchase just to what happens.

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

739 isn't good enough because he'll still have to hit against a few LHPs here and there. 

Agreed, but when paired with Romy, who would have to hit against a few RHPs, too, their combined OPS might project to .775 to .800, or better if you think both can improve.

I'd be okay with a Mayer/Romy platoon at 2B- not so much at 3B, but it would be bearable, as long as we get a more than capable player to play 3B or 2B, and we don't create a new hole to get that guy.

The position we are in is not ideal. We still have two major holes, and it looks like filling only one is possible: getting a decent 2B/3Bman by trading from our logjam areas (OF/ SP depth.)

Forget about the big, power RHB. That will have to be Contreras doing the best he can to limit the loss of power and offense from losing Devers, Breggie, Ref and to a lesser extent N Lowe.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I know. 

If they sign Eugenio, Marcelo would play 2b. If they trade for Paredes, Marcelo may play 2b. 

That's why I think we end up with Donovan.

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm fine if he's platooning at 2b with Romy and they've added another bat to the roster. If they're just putting Mayer at 3b and Hamilton at 2b, it'll be rough. 

I'd be first in line saying Brez muffed the winter, if that happens. (I would word it differently: Mayer at 3B and DHam/Romy at 2B.)

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I love Kutter tho :(

And yes, I acknowledge Ive talked about man-crushes and biases before and being a hypocrite here.

But Kutter is 29 and Bello is 26, and if they dont want bello because they are going full rebuild, subbing in crawford isnt really going in the right direction.

Maybe Early for Donovan?  Also - BTV is not always right.  Im not sure Harrison is actually 5 and Donovan is 31.  But that could be wishful thinking on my part because to me , Harrison makes a lot of sense to trade.

Here are the starters that I am against trading at this point in time (in order)

1. Suarez (you cannot trade him at this time, no new free agents can be traded until mid june, so its not an option at all)
2. Crochet can technically trade him but of course no f'ing way not for anything
3. Gray (maybe) Im not sure if we can trade Gray, if we can he moves down 3 spots
4. Tolle (6'6 huge bodied lefty, thows 100, looks like a crochet clone, seems poised - I think he figures out at least 1 or 2 secondaries - rookie of the year potential)
5. Kutter Crawford - yes im biased, but hes one of my guys.  Been following him since he was a long shot minor leaguer.  He was like 30s or 40s on soxprospects YEARS ago and i read an article like - this guy gonna rise, dont sleep and ive liked him ever since
NOTE here is where Gray would be if we can trade him
6. Oviedo - Im intrigued and I dont think he has a lot of vlaue in a reflip. Im a little worried we gave up some value in this trade (e.g. I think that Garcia may have more value than Ov, but I dont hate the trade if we love Ov, but I dont like the trade if we flip Ov for less value than Garcia had)

7. Sandoval - just dont think he has any value

8. Bello I think hes a good pitcher.  But he has value as a sinkerballer who can get out of jams.
9. Early
10. Harrison

Meaning, Im looking to trade Harrison or even Early, but I want a lot more value for Early.  Youd have to blow me away for Tolle.

I mentioned Crawford over Bello, because he is cheaper, and maybe they like him better as a pitcher, just as you do. If both Crawford and Bello are at full health, I probably like Kutter more, too.

Our offense is in such high need of help, that I now think trading from pitching depth makes more sense than trading Duran. While I hate the concept or DH'ing Duran, when his value to another team should be much greater as an OF'er, we simply need his bat. Besides, pitching is more widely sought after, and teams are nearing desperation points on adding a SP'er. There are a few FA SP'er dominoes to fall, and maybe that is what is holding back trades that might already be agreed upon or close to being done.

I love having top SP'er depth, and it this is something the Sox rarely have. Couple that with the fact that by nearly all accounts, we have the best starting 5 in MLB. That gives us enormous advantages in trade talks that few team can match: We could trade two SP'ers and maybe not miss a single value point, as the others would step in and give equal value, when needed to pitch. For example, we could trade Crawford and Harrison and watch 2 from Oviedo, Sandoval, Early or Tolle have better seasons. Hell, all 4 might!

Just get it done. It doesn't have to be today. Maybe after Framber, Gallen, Gio and a couple other sign, the trade market for SP'ers will get red hot.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, notin said:

You live in a state where people snort cocaine off the backs of alligators while on their way to purchase guns, and it’s THE WEATHER that makes you drink?

Nobody is snorting coke of alligators this weekend... maybe frozen iguanas. Just stressed out about some work stuff because of the "severe" cold. 

[mvp 78]

34 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

That's why I think we end up with Donovan.

Not ideal as I don't want Romy platooning at 3b. Maybe they'll be platooning Donovan? 

[mvp 78]

33 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd be first in line saying Brez muffed the winter, if that happens. (I would word it differently: Mayer at 3B and DHam/Romy at 2B.)

Yes, Hamilton/Romy is the platoon. Hamilton just gets most of the PA's as he faces RHP. 

[UtahSox]

3 hours ago, Old Red said:

Nico would be a one, and done. You really want to trade for that?

Yup! He makes us better so yeah. 

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, notin said:

I know nothing about the guy; I’m speaking in generalities.

But this makes him sound like a re-incarnation of Michael “I’m Not Dead Yet” Morse, but maybe with fewer PEDs. If that’s a fair comparison, he absolutely has trade value especially as a minimum wage player…

Michael Morse won me a fantasy league once , love him

[drewski6]

46 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Yes, Hamilton/Romy is the platoon. Hamilton just gets most of the PA's as he faces RHP. 

Defensively -okay, but I dont think its fair to consider Romy in a comparison of should we vs should we not acquire an everyday infielder (not implying you are doing this) because I think Romy was/is always going to play vs lefties.

If we got Bregman/Paredes/Marte for example - Romy would have platooned with either Abreu or Mayer (most likely), so its not like you gain his bat vs lefties by not getting a Bregman/Paredes/Marte

I think apples to apples, if we are deciding for example, how much Paredes helps us offensively, its not accurate to compare Paredes to what youd get offensively from a DHam/Romy platoon.  I think its more accurate to compare it to what youd get from DHam (vs righties) + what you would get from either Mayer or Abreu (vs lefties), because by not getting an infielder, one of them goes from bench to starter (vs lefties) but Romy was always going to start vs lefties so you dont gain that.

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Defensively -okay, but I dont think its fair to consider Romy in a comparison of should we vs should we not acquire an everyday infielder (not implying you are doing this) because I think Romy was/is always going to play vs lefties.

If we got Bregman/Paredes/Marte for example - Romy would have platooned with either Abreu or Mayer (most likely), so its not like you gain his bat vs lefties by not getting a Bregman/Paredes/Marte

I think apples to apples, if we are deciding for example, how much Paredes helps us offensively, its not accurate to compare Paredes to what youd get offensively from a DHam/Romy platoon.  I think its more accurate to compare it to what youd get from DHam (vs righties) + what you would get from either Mayer or Abreu (vs lefties), because by not getting an infielder, one of them goes from bench to starter (vs lefties) but Romy was always going to start vs lefties so you dont gain that.

When they have 4 OFers AND Masa, Romy isn't platooning for Abreu. Why would they ever throw him out to RF in Fenway? Doesn't make sense. 

The guy they'd platoon Abreu with (if they had to) is Eaton. 

[mvp 78]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

By Monday, I will have forgotten that we've even spoken about the guy. 

 

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

When they have 4 OFers AND Masa, Romy isn't platooning for Abreu. Why would they ever throw him out to RF in Fenway? Doesn't make sense. 

The guy they'd platoon Abreu with (if they had to) is Eaton. 

Thats fine.  But they were always going to get Romys bat in the lineup against lefties.

My hunch would be Romy would play DH, Duran jump into a corner OF spot, Abreu to bench vs lefties is how you would platoon Abreu with Romy. You keep Duran playing OF sometimes so the skills dont erode. And really Im choosing Abreu because he seems to be the odd guy out vs lefties (I expected him to play vs lefties last year and it didnt happen and Moon reminded me a few times that I was wrong, so Im just trying to not repeat past mistaken assumptions).  Understood, a few moving parts here (Duran to LF/Anthony to RF). 

So maybe they would have platooned Duran/Romy at DH, so you can keep Anthony in LF always and Abreu in RF always (less moving parts).  Maybe you platoon Romy with Mayer.

BUt if Dham is going to have a .680 OPS vs righties and Romy .900 (vs lefties), thats roughly .733 (assuming lefty 25%, so (680*3+900)/4

What I am saying is including Romy is raising that from .680 to .733 and I dont think its accurate to compare that .733 to what we would get from Bregman (.820).  Because if we got Bregman, that .900 OPS vs lefties (romy) would still be in the lineup.  

Lets say Romy would platoon with Mayer if we got Bregman.  So, I look at mayer OPS vs lefties, which was like .400 but tiny sample size, so lets say .600, so our apples to apples comparison is (.680*3+.600)/4 which is .660.  So by not signing Bregman, its a drop from .820 OPS to .660 because 3/4 times is DHAM bat in the lineup now that you dont have Bregman (when its a righty) and 1/4 time its Mayers bat in the lineup  (when its a lefty).

I still think we get an everyday infielder at some point, and even after we do (assuming we do) ROmy will still play vs lefties.  So dont factor in Romys OPS when deciding how much that *acquistion* infielder helps the offense becasue his bat is NOT coming in for Romys. Its coming in for DHAMs 3/4 times and Mayers 1/4 times.



 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Yes, Hamilton/Romy is the platoon. Hamilton just gets most of the PA's as he faces RHP. 

The way Romy hit LHPs better than DHam, last year, maybe Romy starts most games.

Career vs RHP: DHam .667 and Romy .616, but that career .616 is almost identical to DHam's 2025 split vs R (.618.)

If Romy can repeat .716 v RHPs, again, like he did in 2025, he may end up our FT 2Bman, assuming no moves are made and K Campbell doesn't get another 2B look.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

When they have 4 OFers AND Masa, Romy isn't platooning for Abreu. Why would they ever throw him out to RF in Fenway? Doesn't make sense. 

The guy they'd platoon Abreu with (if they had to) is Eaton. 

Don't  forget the K Campbell OF option. He could play LF vs LHPs while Anthony gives Abreu or Duran the day off.

[moonslav59]

I think it's more likely Romy platoons at 2B or 3B than DH/OF.

Of course, after we make a trade, that could change.

[moonslav59]

Didn't think this one out too much, but here is my last BTV trade offering:

Duran, Sandoval, DHam, Masas & $20M (about half of what Masa is owed)

for

Baty (3B) & Vientos (DH/1B/3B)

Between the $8M x 2 saved on Masa, $8M on Duran and $8M on Sandoval, maybe we can afford to sign a couple RP'ers.

A simpler trade, also accepted was Duran & Hicks for Baty. That might allow us to sign E Suarez to DH and not get Vientos for that. However, we'd still have Masa.

Maybe Duran + Masa + $18M for Baty, then sign Suarez.

[Hugh2]

Trevor Story and Marcelo Mayer.  Two guys who have one full season between the two of them the past 4 years.

theres a real chance your infield at some point this season is Romy Gonzalez, Nate Eaton, Nick Sogard and Wilson Contreras.  A very high chance of that infield minus one plus one of Story/Mayer. 
 

spring training is 3 weeks away and this is starting to feel like roster malpractice with what they’ve spent prospect capital and money on this offseason and to have nothing to show for it up the middle.

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Trevor Story and Marcelo Mayer.  Two guys who have one full season between the two of them the past 4 years.

It is scary about their injury histories, but in the last 4 years they have played:

320 Games Story (That's 2 full seasons.)

333 games Mayer (minors + majors, which is 2 full seasons in MLB.)

[Hugh2]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It is scary about their injury histories, but in the last 4 years they have played:

320 Games Story (That's 2 full seasons.)

333 games Mayer (minors + majors, which is 2 full seasons in MLB.)

Games played by year

Mayer: 91, 78, 77, 87

Story: 94, 43, 26, 157

even before one of them goes down you’re running a platoon out at 2nd.

not sure any “but” is making me feel better when you add up all those games you get some full seasons.  In 8 potential full seasons you have 1.  
 

the capacity for things to get ugly is sky high

[Duran Is The Man]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

 

i'll be spending nearly all of March in Phoenix. and i have tickets to a bunch of Mariners games. i'll let you know how bad he does.

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Games played by year

Mayer: 91, 78, 77, 87

Story: 94, 43, 26, 157

even before one of them goes down you’re running a platoon out at 2nd.

not sure any “but” is making me feel better when you add up all those games you get some full seasons.  In 8 potential full seasons you have 1.  
 

the capacity for things to get ugly is sky high

Good points, and Mayer still hasn’t proven he much more than a suspect yet.

[Duran Is The Man]

35 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Trevor Story and Marcelo Mayer.  Two guys who have one full season between the two of them the past 4 years.

theres a real chance your infield at some point this season is Romy Gonzalez, Nate Eaton, Nick Sogard and Wilson Contreras.  A very high chance of that infield minus one plus one of Story/Mayer. 
 

spring training is 3 weeks away and this is starting to feel like roster malpractice with what they’ve spent prospect capital and money on this offseason and to have nothing to show for it up the middle.

just wait til they trade their most productive hitter (Duran) for a box of marbles.

[Old Red]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

It is scary about their injury histories, but in the last 4 years they have played:

320 Games Story (That's 2 full seasons.)

333 games Mayer (minors + majors, which is 2 full seasons in MLB.)

Kind of misleading. It took Story 3 seasons to play 1 season, before last year.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Kind of misleading. It took Story 3 seasons to play 1 season, before last year.

True. He basically played one full season over the previous 3 seasons combined, but it was not one season in 4 years.

Mayer was in the minors, where seasons are shorter, so his 333 games in 4 years is not quite as bad as it looks... also, a bit misleading.

[moonslav59]

44 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

just wait til they trade their most productive hitter (Duran) for a box of marbles.

I doubt that happens.

Also, last 3 years OPS (300+ PAs)

.859 Anthony (smaller sample size by a lot)

.817 Contreras (w STL)

.810 Duran

.803 Casas

______________

2025 only

.859 Anthony

.826 Romy

.791 Contreras

,786 Abreu

.774 Duran

 

[Hugh2]

23 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

just wait til they trade their most productive hitter (Duran) for a box of marbles.

I’d trade him for an infielder of equal value right now.

[Hugh2]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

True. He basically played one full season over the previous 3 seasons combined, but it was not one season in 4 years.

Mayer was in the minors, where seasons are shorter, so his 333 games in 4 years is not quite as bad as it looks... also, a bit misleading.

He finished every season on the IL, it’s really not that misleading.  There’s serious injury concern with him.

[Hugh2]

28 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Good points, and Mayer still hasn’t proven he much more than a suspect yet.

I really like Mayer, I’m super high on him.  But the fact is like you said he’s unproven and I’ll reiterate has injury concerns and platoon concerns.

im fine rolling the dice with him starting, actual I’ve been advocating it.  But doing so with Story and a collection of platoon players around him is malpractice.

the Sox need a proven, productive, MLB starting caliber infielder.  It was arguably the Sox biggest offseason need and they’ve completely neglected it to date.