A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[Old Red]

18 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Why? Because they audibled to building an elite pitching staff when they couldnt land the guys who would have fixed the offense.  And here we are.

But somebody is going to need to play 2b, and they may go get an experienced infielder.  Even still, there will be injuries/days off and being able to move guys around is a plus.

It remains to be seen if the Red Sox have a so called elite pitching staff. Audibled?🤔

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I hate all of these infield options today (especially me at 2B).

If they're really building the team around pitching, then they really better acquire an actual good infielder -- and not convert an outfielder or rely on career back-ups.

Really, I think it's folly for us or those we pay money to cheer for their team to even consider either of the last two choices.

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I hate all of these infield options today (especially me at 2B).

If they're really building the team around pitching, then they really better acquire an actual good infielder -- and not convert an outfielder or rely on career back-ups.

Really, I think it's folly for us or those we pay money to cheer for their team to even consider either of the last two choices.

Well said, and like I asked WHY to to the RED Sox have to settle?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

55 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

No, he said he'd be in the conversation for 1-1 in the 2027 draft, bucko...

Law is also the highest guy on Arias. Nobody else has him evaluated like that. 

I don't get The Athletic so didn't see Law's complete quote that included the year. I just read NESN.com's recap of his opinion on Arias, doe a deer a female deer.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I don't get The Athletic so didn't see Law's complete quote that included the year. I just read NESN.com's recap of his opinion on Arias, doe a deer a female deer.

I'm not a subscriber either. 

Arias is an extremely advanced hitter already, playing all of 2025 at age 19, so much so that the Red Sox challenged him by moving him up from Low A after just 19 games there in April (and only 54 games there in total). He responded with one of the highest contact rates of any hitter in High A, regardless of age, striking out just 8.9 percent of the time, second among qualifiers behind a 24-year-old org player, while flashing some of his power potential and playing strong defense at short. He rarely swings and misses, with an overall whiff rate of just 12 percent on the year, and just 4 percent on pitches in the zone. He might benefit by swinging a little bit less often — at least until he gets stronger and can do more with the contact he is making, as right now he’s getting the bat to the ball but doesn’t square it up consistently enough, with a weird spike in his pop-up rate in High A last year. He’s barely begun to fill out physically, with room to add probably a full grade of power as he matures, but he’s such a smart hitter that he’s moved up the chain faster than most prospects his age. He’s a natural shortstop with excellent instincts and is at least a 55 defender there already, probably plus or better in the end. He’s less of a finished product than the other players around him in this range of the list, but if he were a college sophomore right now, we’d be talking about him as a potential 1-1 pick in 2027.

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

Right now the Red Sox don’t have a regular 2B, or a regular 3B.

Mayer will definitely be at one of those two positions, so we only need one.  Past that, I agree that we don't need to settle.  If we need a 2B/3B, go out and get one.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Mayer will definitely be at one of those two positions, so we only need one.  Past that, I agree that we don't need to settle.  If we need a 2B/3B, go out and get one.

It's January 27th...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

19 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm not a subscriber either. 

Arias is an extremely advanced hitter already, playing all of 2025 at age 19, so much so that the Red Sox challenged him by moving him up from Low A after just 19 games there in April (and only 54 games there in total). He responded with one of the highest contact rates of any hitter in High A, regardless of age, striking out just 8.9 percent of the time, second among qualifiers behind a 24-year-old org player, while flashing some of his power potential and playing strong defense at short. He rarely swings and misses, with an overall whiff rate of just 12 percent on the year, and just 4 percent on pitches in the zone. He might benefit by swinging a little bit less often — at least until he gets stronger and can do more with the contact he is making, as right now he’s getting the bat to the ball but doesn’t square it up consistently enough, with a weird spike in his pop-up rate in High A last year. He’s barely begun to fill out physically, with room to add probably a full grade of power as he matures, but he’s such a smart hitter that he’s moved up the chain faster than most prospects his age. He’s a natural shortstop with excellent instincts and is at least a 55 defender there already, probably plus or better in the end. He’s less of a finished product than the other players around him in this range of the list, but if he were a college sophomore right now, we’d be talking about him as a potential 1-1 pick in 2027.

Thanks -- some strong quotes: extremely advanced hitter... rarely swings and misses... such a smart hitter...

If he is indeed all those things, then I bet the pop-up issue is from taking his eye off the ball while trying to show extra-base power. At some point in the minors, all position player prospects try to homer their way into the big leagues.

[notin]

24 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Mayer will definitely be at one of those two positions, so we only need one.  Past that, I agree that we don't need to settle.  If we need a 2B/3B, go out and get one.

Maybe he means Mayer has insufficient fiber in his diet…

[JoeBrady]

17 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It's January 27th...

Plenty early, I agree.  But it only matters if Breslow agrees.  If he thinks Romy/DHam is the solution. we have to hope for the best.

[drewski6]

52 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Mayer will definitely be at one of those two positions, so we only need one.  Past that, I agree that we don't need to settle.  If we need a 2B/3B, go out and get one.

Im fine with Mayer in AAA to start. Its good depth, he never proved adequate at the plate, and the hole is harder to fill once the season starts. Would rather have too many good players than not enough.

Forcing guys into PT is not a problem.  They should force themselves in. By mashing in AAA.

No slouches.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Thanks -- some strong quotes: extremely advanced hitter... rarely swings and misses... such a smart hitter...

If he is indeed all those things, then I bet the pop-up issue is from taking his eye off the ball while trying to show extra-base power. At some point in the minors, all position player prospects try to homer their way into the big leagues.

He's similar to Rafaela in that he's athletic to hit every pitch. However, he's not showing Rafaela's power potential seen in MiLB. The hit tool has been fine. He either needs to take more bb's or add power. 

[mvp 78]

51 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Plenty early, I agree.  

The truck leaves in 6 days. Pitchers and Catchers report in 2 weeks. 

At some point, it needs to be wrapped up as Breslow will run out of time. Were' 80% of the way to full squad workouts at this point.

[JoeBrady]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The truck leaves in 6 days. Pitchers and Catchers report in 2 weeks. 

At some point, it needs to be wrapped up as Breslow will run out of time. Were' 80% of the way to full squad workouts at this point.

We are on player away.  IF Breslow wants to make a trade, he has three weeks to make one.  Like I said, maybe he more in Romy/DHam that others do, which is prerogative.  But he has plenty of time.

[mvp 78]

I can already see the press conference at ST where he talks about the roster being finalized and not being able to get a deal done for 2b, but that he's happy with the group he has. 

"Obviously, we were pursuing multiple impact players and we weren't able to line up for what ever reason with the other side. We got uncomfortable with the players were willing to put into deals. We were aggressive, but we're happy with the guys that we brought into camp. We felt like it was best to leave our group as it was and use what I think is a strong and deep system to compete for the playoffs this year."

[moonslav59]

21 hours ago, Kimmi said:

It makes sense that we'd want the best overall defensive alignment possible.  It's very possible that Rafaela at 2B and Duran in CF would be a better overall alignment than the other way around.  I would really, really hate to lose Rafaela's elite defense in CF, but playing him at 2B could be a solution to filling that position and dealing with our crowded outfield.

With that being said, I'm not sure why Duran couldn't work his way to being a solid defender at 2B,  I'm sure the Red Sox have a reason for not considering him there, but I'm not sure what it is.

There is more to the problem on moving Rafaela to 2B than removing a GG fielder from an important position. The move does not address the missing big bat issue any more than DH'ing Duran.

It would if we play DHam at 2B, but I'm not sure a DHam/Romy platoon at 2B is worse on O than Rafaela.

[moonslav59]

39 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

We are on player away.  IF Breslow wants to make a trade, he has three weeks to make one.  Like I said, maybe he more in Romy/DHam that others do, which is prerogative.  But he has plenty of time.

I don't think he lets that DHam/Romy at 2B ride.

If Romy was the one getting 450 PAs and DHam 150, maybe, but the strongside spit is just too awful to allow.

[JoeBrady]

43 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The move does not address the missing big bat issue any more than DH'ing Duran.

I've said this before.  There is no evidence to suggest Ceddanne will out-perform Romy/DHam.  Using the PAs suggested by FG, Romy/DHam produce a .726 wRC+ while Ceddanne produces a .730.  Duran over Yoshi is a bigger markup.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

There is more to the problem on moving Rafaela to 2B than removing a GG fielder from an important position. The move does not address the missing big bat issue any more than DH'ing Duran.

It would if we play DHam at 2B, but I'm not sure a DHam/Romy platoon at 2B is worse on O than Rafaela.

Well DHAM is worse at the plate than Rafaela, for sure - and Romy is kind of irrelevant to this because hes going to hit somewhere against lefties.  

Other than that I agree.  It doesnt fix the offense.  But it doesnt break it more like some trades of Duran for a good defensive infielder with a noodle bat.

[Old Red]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I can already see the press conference at ST where he talks about the roster being finalized and not being able to get a deal done for 2b, but that he's happy with the group he has. 

"Obviously, we were pursuing multiple impact players and we weren't able to line up for what ever reason with the other side. We got uncomfortable with the players were willing to put into deals. We were aggressive, but we're happy with the guys that we brought into camp. We felt like it was best to leave our group as it was and use what I think is a strong and deep system to compete for the playoffs this year."

Maybe Brez will copy, and read this.

[moonslav59]

44 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I've said this before.  There is no evidence to suggest Ceddanne will out-perform Romy/DHam.  Using the PAs suggested by FG, Romy/DHam produce a .726 wRC+ while Ceddanne produces a .730.  Duran over Yoshi is a bigger markup.

But, really the line-up comps are...

Duran/Abreu vs Yoshida 

and 

Paredes vs DHam v R/ Romy v L

Which mark-up rates to be higher?

If we get a piece added to the deal, that is a consideration, also.

On defense comps, if we trade Duran, the D stays about the same, depending on how you view Paredes 3B/Mayer 2B vs Mayer 3B/DHam-Romy 2B.

If it's Abreu, we get worse on D, but the infield part is up for debate. (Anthony in RF is not bad, but Anthony in LF over Duran and Abreu in RF is significantly better.)

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I can already see the press conference at ST where he talks about the roster being finalized and not being able to get a deal done for 2b, but that he's happy with the group he has. 

"Obviously, we were pursuing multiple impact players and we weren't able to line up for what ever reason with the other side. We got uncomfortable with the players were willing to put into deals. We were aggressive, but we're happy with the guys that we brought into camp. We felt like it was best to leave our group as it was and use what I think is a strong and deep system to compete for the playoffs this year."

I could certainly see that happening, as Brez has proven he sets a price/value and does not back down. He does not want to lose a trade w Duran or Abreu, and I respect that.

We could, however win the war after losing every battle, as Bob Dylan once sang.

Even if Duran and Abreu are better than Paredes, maybe we're a better team with Paredes at 3B, Mayer at 2B and Yoshida/Romy/Casas/Campbell at DH.

[Kimmi]

5 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I hate all of these infield options today (especially me at 2B).

If they're really building the team around pitching, then they really better acquire an actual good infielder -- and not convert an outfielder or rely on career back-ups.

Really, I think it's folly for us or those we pay money to cheer for their team to even consider either of the last two choices.

Hopefully, it doesn't come to that.  I'm just mulling around some ideas in case no one else is acquired.  I don't think that the worst case scenario of staying status quo with our infield is as bad an option as others think it is, until that inevitable injury occurs.

To be clear, I really think that we need to add an infielder.  I just don't think it spells doomsday if we don't.

[Kimmi]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

There is more to the problem on moving Rafaela to 2B than removing a GG fielder from an important position. The move does not address the missing big bat issue any more than DH'ing Duran.

It would if we play DHam at 2B, but I'm not sure a DHam/Romy platoon at 2B is worse on O than Rafaela.

I honestly think I'm more concerned with shoring up the infield defense than I am with securing a big bat.  Of course, I fully admit that the first time we lose a game 1-0 or 2-1, I will be criticizing the weak, pathetic offense.

[drewski6]

44 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I could certainly see that happening, as Brez has proven he sets a price/value and does not back down. He does not want to lose a trade w Duran or Abreu, and I respect that.

We could, however win the war after losing every battle, as Bob Dylan once sang.

Even if Duran and Abreu are better than Paredes, maybe we're a better team with Paredes at 3B, Mayer at 2B and Yoshida/Romy/Casas/Campbell at DH.

What evidence that he doesnt back down? He did up his offer to Bregman but it was too late. Breslow had already pissed Bregman off by being dense.

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

What evidence that he doesnt back down? He did up his offer to Bregman but it was too late. Breslow had already pissed Bregman off by being dense.

That’s the way I understood it too. I don’t know what Brez’s first offer was, but by the time he put the SO CALLED aggressive offer on the table it was to late anyways, 

[drewski6]

11 minutes ago, Old Red said:

That’s the way I understood it too. I don’t know what Brez’s first offer was, but by the time he put the SO CALLED aggressive offer on the table it was to late anyways, 

Yes, and the "aggressive" offer wasnt particularly aggressive either (love how you called it SO CALLED aggressive offer, btw)

Per AJ P, it went like this

Initial offer to Bregman
Bregman/Boras - hey, we think our market will be higher and this offer isnt going to get it done
Breslow - thats our offer, let us know if you get a better one
Bregman/Boras - okay we now have a better offer
Breslow - i dont believe you
Bregman/Boras  - fine, we're about to sign with the cubs
Breslow - WAIT!!! I believe you now, what will get it done?
Bregman/Boras - 175m, some deferred but not as much as you did. and a ntc
Breslow - okay! Well Im about to make you a competitive offer!
Bregman / Boras .....
Breslow - 165m, even more deferred
Bregman/Boras - thats not what we .....and what about the ntc?
Breslow - wont do it
Bregman / Boras - Cubs it is
Breslow - WAIT!!!!
Bregman/Boras  - click
Breslow - why am i so bad at this?

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

But, really the line-up comps are...

Duran/Abreu vs Yoshida 

and 

Paredes vs DHam v R/ Romy v L

Which mark-up rates to be higher?

If we get a piece added to the deal, that is a consideration, also.

On defense comps, if we trade Duran, the D stays about the same, depending on how you view Paredes 3B/Mayer 2B vs Mayer 3B/DHam-Romy 2B.

If it's Abreu, we get worse on D, but the infield part is up for debate. (Anthony in RF is not bad, but Anthony in LF over Duran and Abreu in RF is significantly better.)

No because Romy is going to play vs lefties regardless of whether or not we get paredes

Its not paredes vs romy/DHAM platoon

Because romy is going to play vs lefties, it will prob be abreu that sits

So its paredes vs Dham /Abreu

By not getting paredes, you are playing abreu vs lefties and DHam vs righties

(Romy is playing against lefties regardless)

[notin]

4 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Im fine with Mayer in AAA to start. Its good depth, he never proved adequate at the plate, and the hole is harder to fill once the season starts. Would rather have too many good players than not enough.

Forcing guys into PT is not a problem.  They should force themselves in. By mashing in AAA.

No slouches.

Mayer has a career .818 OPS in AAA and only 136 PA in MLB…

[notin]

2 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

No because Romy is going to play vs lefties regardless of whether or not we get paredes

Its not paredes vs romy/DHAM platoon

Because romy is going to play vs lefties, it will prob be abreu that sits

So its paredes vs Dham /Abreu

By not getting paredes, you are playing abreu vs lefties and DHam vs righties

(Romy is playing against lefties regardless)

Yoshida could sit vs LHPs, too…