A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[drewski6]

Just now, notin said:

Mayer has a career .818 OPS in AAA and only 136 PA in MLB…

And? Mayer in AAA is better depth than Mayer in MLB.

Im not saying I hate the thought with him in MLB. Im just saying we are deeper if he starts in AAA.

You start Mayer and Dham to open the season in 2026 and we'll be starting Eaton and Sogard when playoffs come. We've seen this movie. Expect injuries.

Im not saying Mayer cant play in MLB. Im saying that for the same reason people wanted to push Tolle and Early out of the rotation (becuase they are great depth options in minors) applies to Mayer as well (great depth option in the minors)

I trust Mayer more than I trust Early but less than I trust Tolle.

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

Yoshida could sit vs LHPs, too…

Yoshida is already sitting against lefties. Im talking about who gets displaced if they trade pitching for Paredes.

Most likely it will be one of Duran/Abreu vs lefties and DHAM vs righties.

Unless you think theyll move Cedanne to infield to DH yoshida, which im sure they will sometimes.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

What evidence that he doesnt back down? He did up his offer to Bregman but it was too late. Breslow had already pissed Bregman off by being dense.

What does "back down" mean? He didn't go higher than his top offer?

Sorry, I'm just not sure he "botched" anything. Even if he misread the room and didn't believe the Cubs offer was that high: so what? It doesn't matter if he was never going to go higher and give the no trade clause.

That's not to say I'm not concerned, if Brez is continuously "misreading the room," but negotiations often take turns like this. The Cubs aren't going to tell the Sox what their offer was, and if they do, they could be lying.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Yoshida is already sitting against lefties. Im talking about who gets displaced if they trade pitching for Paredes.

Most likely it will be one of Duran/Abreu vs lefties and DHAM vs righties.

Unless you think theyll move Cedanne to infield to DH yoshida, which im sure they will sometimes.

With no trades, I see Duran at DH nearly FT. The other OF'ers are just too much better to have any sort of rotation beyond just norm rest time at DH.

I don't think Cora plans on platooning Abreu and he never has with Duran, except maybe year one. Maybe Romy could DH vs LHPs, but we'd need him at 2B (unless Rafaela is there.)

I'm against the idea of Rafaela at 2B for any time, except as an emergency, but that is one way to play Masa more at DH. I'm not sure I'm even saying those words. Why am I moving a GG CF'er off position so Masa can DH not Duran/Romy/Casas/Campbell.

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, drewski6 said:

And? Mayer in AAA is better depth than Mayer in MLB.

Im not saying I hate the thought with him in MLB. Im just saying we are deeper if he starts in AAA.

You start Mayer and Dham to open the season in 2026 and we'll be starting Eaton and Sogard when playoffs come. We've seen this movie. Expect injuries.

Im not saying Mayer cant play in MLB. Im saying that for the same reason people wanted to push Tolle and Early out of the rotation (becuase they are great depth options in minors) applies to Mayer as well (great depth option in the minors)

I trust Mayer more than I trust Early but less than I trust Tolle.

Does Hamilton have a history of injuries? 

[moonslav59]

34 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Does Hamilton have a history of injuries? 

We need to plan for 26 injuries and have two full all star rosters by opening day, or else Brez is a complete failure.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We need to plan for 26 injuries and have two full all star rosters by opening day, or else Brez is a complete failure.

If Anthony and Crochet get injured, the season is ovah. 

[moonslav59]

41 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If Anthony and Crochet get injured, the season is ovah. 

Can't argue with that. The same could be said about every team's top 2 players, except maybe the Dodgers.

Their 3rd and 4th best players are better than most teams' 1-2's.

[Larry Cook]

On 1/27/2026 at 12:58 PM, mvp 78 said:

The truck leaves in 6 days. Pitchers and Catchers report in 2 weeks. 

At some point, it needs to be wrapped up as Breslow will run out of time. Were' 80% of the way to full squad workouts at this point.

Or bres-slow is waiting to see if we have any injuries lingering or other teams have injured players that creates a demand for yoshida or hicks or Sandoval!!!  
 

I like our team as is and think we can win 90 games this year as is!! 

[Larry Cook]

7 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

If Anthony and Crochet get injured, the season is ovah. 

Take one of the top two from any team and you get the same result. 
 

I think we are still competitive because Bres-slow has built a lot of depth! 
 

I think the minor leagues needs more position depth! Maybe bres-slow addresses that in the draft. Much like the previous few years, someone decent (position player) will fall to us unexpectedly in this draft.  

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Take one of the top two from any team and you get the same result.  

No Judge and the Yanks are looking at 4th place. No Judge and fried, the Rays may beat em out.

[Larry Cook]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

No Judge and the Yanks are looking at 4th place. No Judge and fried, the Rays may beat em out.

I know I am in the minority here, but the Yankees look very very strong to me. Health permitting!!  

[JoeBrady]

40 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I think the minor leagues needs more position depth!

While the depth has weakened, the control has increased exponentially.  34 years between 6 position players, and that doesn't KC or Casas.  If those two guys, plus Arias pan out, while highly unlikely, we won't need to draft a position players for 3-4 years (some artistic license taken).

Even the pitching, which is usually less projectable, has Crochet, Bello, Tolle, Early and Witherspoon thru 2030 and beyond.

[JoeBrady]

40 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I know I am in the minority here, but the Yankees look very very strong to me. Health permitting!!  

They were 2nd in Py W/L last year.  Tough to predict how their rotation will recover.

[moonslav59]

37 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

I know I am in the minority here, but the Yankees look very very strong to me. Health permitting!!  

They do.

Imagine if Crawford is healthy and looks like he did before injury.

Sandoval.

Slaten.

Anthony.

Abreu

Casas

Narvaez & Wong, Mayer and others

[drewski6]

8 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

If Anthony and Crochet get injured, the season is ovah. 

I would go as far as to change your and to an or , especially in crochets case

[drewski6]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We need to plan for 26 injuries and have two full all star rosters by opening day, or else Brez is a complete failure.

We have two full pitching staffs, and can survive an injury to any of em except Crochet rather easily

On the position player side, we have like 4 bats I trust and we lose any of em and we're in trouble.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

49 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

We have two full pitching staffs, and can survive an injury to any of em except Crochet rather easily

On the position player side, we have like 4 bats I trust and we lose any of em and we're in trouble.

Ya, I don't wanna be a downer, but then I looked at the thread title: "A Realistic Look at 2026"...

It's great the starting rotation looks deep, but I always feel a team is defined by position players, the regulars who play every night and not just once a week.

Argue all you want about pitching, then again the Sox starters may not be better than even Texas: deGrom, Eovaldi, Gore, Leiter, Junis. 

I really like Ranger Suarez; he reminds me of Luis Tiant coming off the '75 World Series. And that team with so much promise went into 1976 with a rotation of Looie, two other All-Star pitchers in Wise and Lee, and a winter acquisition headed to Cooperstown: Fergie Jenkins. 

The '26 Sox have a handful of pretty good guys on the field and in the batting order, but no stars. That '76 Boston club had Hall of Famers like Yaz, Rice and Fisk, plus MVP Lynn, Dwight Evans and Cecil Cooper (Most Similar Batter on bb-ref: Don Mattingly). They won 83 games.

[moonslav59]

I kinda like our everyday players and see just one major hole.

I agree the line-up is heavy on balance and light on star power. I can't think of one Sox team from 1975 to 2018 that made it to the WS without 1-2 bonafide big bats- some had 3-4 or more.

There have been other MLB teams that have rings without big bats, but we'd certainly look much better with one (or two.)

We have some that are close (Contreras, Duran, Abreu) and some that might bust out (Anthony, Narvaez, Campbell, Mayer...) but we lack a proven middle order big bat.

I went into the offseason thinking 2 big bats and a #2 SP'er. Keep it simple. Don't "spread the wealth:" spend all winter assets on 2-3 players ONLY! Contreras comes close enough, for me, to drop my wish to one big bat, and I felt like it should have been Schwarber, Alonso or KMarte. That ain't happening.

We did gain way more in the rotation than I ever expected, and 90% of all winters, I'm screaming for us to rebuild the rotation from the top. This winter I did not, except for the wish for one solid #2. Maybe that makes up for the losses on offense- maybe it doesn't.

Who we get to play 2B or 3B might help some, but it will likely fit the balanced line-up ideal more than the star-studded ideal. We'll probably do one more trade with STL and get Donovan- a pretty consistent .775 type batter. He bats lefty, so maybe we seek a RHB like Paredes, who I think is a sure bet .800 hitter in 2026 and maybe much higher.

I'm not gonna check the finances, and this would likely put us over the 3rd tax line, but here is my wish (ok fantasy) list:

1. Trade Masa and save $3-5M AAV.

2. Trade Abreu & Hicks for Paredes and Sousa ($save about $2M?)

3. Sign E Suarez to play 3B or DH.

1. L Anthony RF

2. R Paredes 3B

3. L Duran LF/R Contreras 1B

4. R Suarez DH

5. R Contreras 1B/L Duran LF

6. R Story SS

7. L Mayer 2B/ R Romy 2B

8. R Narvaez C

9. R Rafaela CF

[Nick]

So are we going to eat Sandoval's $18.5M contract? Unreal.

[Duran Is The Man]

34 minutes ago, Nick said:

So are we going to eat Sandoval's $18.5M contract? Unreal.

another idiotic contract that should never have happened. why sign a guy to rehab for years, when you can get a player that can oh, i dunno, ACTUALLY PLAY A f***ING GAME!?! it's f***ing insane. i wonder who we could have signed for the millions pissed away on Sandoval and Hendricks.

[Larry Cook]

40 minutes ago, Nick said:

So are we going to eat Sandoval's $18.5M contract? Unreal.

Some of the writers think bres-slow uses spring training to audition Sandoval to the other teams 

[moonslav59]

Is there some news on Sandoval I missed?

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, Nick said:

So are we going to eat Sandoval's $18.5M contract? Unreal.

Why would we eat Sandoval's contract?

[JoeBrady]

59 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Some of the writers think bres-slow uses spring training to audition Sandoval to the other teams 

It's not a bad idea.  Pitchers go down like flies during ST.  If we had 5-6-7 SPs looking as good or better than Sandy, see what the market is for him.  While I have to acknowledge that lack of depth killed us last year.

[moonslav59]

26 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Why would we eat Sandoval's contract?

why DFA the 2026 Cy Young winner?

[mvp 78]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Is there some news on Sandoval I missed?

No. 

[notin]

On 1/27/2026 at 3:46 PM, drewski6 said:

And? Mayer in AAA is better depth than Mayer in MLB.

Im not saying I hate the thought with him in MLB. Im just saying we are deeper if he starts in AAA.

You start Mayer and Dham to open the season in 2026 and we'll be starting Eaton and Sogard when playoffs come. We've seen this movie. Expect injuries.

Im not saying Mayer cant play in MLB. Im saying that for the same reason people wanted to push Tolle and Early out of the rotation (becuase they are great depth options in minors) applies to Mayer as well (great depth option in the minors)

I trust Mayer more than I trust Early but less than I trust Tolle.

,Youre moving the goalposts.  There is a difference between stashing a player for depth and demoting a player because he hasn’t “forced his way on to an MLB roster”…

[moonslav59]

We all know we aren't adding 2 infielders, and Mayer will be penciled into the 2B or 3B slot.

This all came up when talk about 1 big bat not being available, right now, and what if we added two good bats instead- like Paredes and E Suarez. That's not happening.

[drewski6]

12 minutes ago, notin said:

,Youre moving the goalposts.  There is a difference between stashing a player for depth and demoting a player because he hasn’t “forced his way on to an MLB roster”…

Right, but Ive already been working for a while here at 9 am.  I usually dont start this early.  The reason that Im working this morning is because a) my heat is out downstairs (plummer on his way) so I cant do my normal game of MLB the show before work and b) I have a lot of work

In the Red Sox, I know the two reasons I provided are not the same thing and maybe neither reason would be enough on its own for me to be okay with Mayer in AAA (low likelihood anyways).  But I like to get philosophical on occasion, and one of my sayings is:

People like to say that everything happens for a reason, but we live in a universe of infinite variables and nothing has ever happened for a reason.  Everything that has ever happened ever has happened because of a slew of a reasons coming together.

If Mayer had proven he can hit in MLB he would be a must have on MLB roster.  IF we had a lot of depth at middle infield, the lack thereof, is contributing too.  Because you go with DHAM, Mayer, and Story when Mayer hasnt finished the last 3 seasons healthy and Story hasnt finished 3 of the last 4 - it sounds like a plot to a movie Ive seen before and the movie is Yoshida/Sogard/Eaton/DHam playing every day roles in the playoffs and just knowing your team has an absolute max of 2 runs scored.

Its unlikely and IM not even sure I would even prefer it but at least the next man up wouldnt be Sogard.