A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

I’m going to type 5 words I have never typed before and God willing, will never type again. <deep breath>
 

I agree with Old Red.

He just agreed to "all" of something I said, so maybe he has a cold or something.

[JoeBrady]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Didn’t Brez say he wanted to add a big bat? That I believe was also along with the idea that they resigned Bregman. Has that been accomplished?

No yet, but he added a good bat in Contreras.  And I expect one more bat that will improve us over what we had at 2B last year.  4 positions to think about from last year.  We only had 3 positions that were worse than league average:

• Catcher sOPS+ of 87.  That's almost entirely due to Wong's 48.  Narvaez had a 108.  I expect Wong to improve, and my guess is that we land at 100.
• 1B with an 84.  Contreras should be a huge improvement over that.
• 2B with a 97.  We had a .670 last year.  Using Mayer as a 2B should yield a .703 and push us over 100.
• At 3B, adding someone like Paredes or Baty will keep us over 100.  And Yoshida should be roughly league-average DH.

IMVHO, as we stand right now, we will have a better than average OPS.  If we acquire Paredes or Baty, we should be in the top-11.

[notin]

16 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

That seems impossible.  Most trades will get a yes from one side or the other, unless it is a bad fit.  But the RS need a 2B/3B, and the Mets need another outfielder.  One of us should do this eagerly.

That one who does it eagerly is the Mets, because out outfielders are better than the their infielders.

 

Maybeva deal of Abreu straight up for Baty is about ss equal as it gets.  Both players have 4 years left and both are coming off 3.0-3.5 bWAR seasons.  But I think Boston likes Abreu too much…

[notin]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

He just agreed to "all" of something I said, so maybe he has a cold or something.

Or he’s been hacked!!!

[JoeBrady]

20 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

The only information I have is for 2025

I didn't realize that you didn't have access to the internet.  Try this one: https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/

[JoeBrady]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

You’re more obsessed with spending than winning.  I don’t think that’s even up for a counter argument…

If we acquired Skenes for Yoshida, Fred would say we only did it to dump salary.

[JoeBrady]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

That one who does it eagerly is the Mets, because out outfielders are better than the their infielders.

 

Maybeva deal of Abreu straight up for Baty is about ss equal as it gets.  Both players have 4 years left and both are coming off 3.0-3.5 bWAR seasons.  But I think Boston likes Abreu too much…

On the first, I agree.  But that's why you throw in Masa, or Hicks, or the Mets throw in Vientos or something else.

On the second, I could trade Abreu, but prefer to trade Duran.  Duran was fine in CF, kind of like Ellsbury.  But I find him painful to watch in LF.  That said, watching him run the bases is truly joyful.  Line drives straight at the CF, and then watching the CF have to hustle to keep him to a single is remarkable.

But one should really go.

[moonslav59]

24 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

No yet, but he added a good bat in Contreras.  And I expect one more bat that will improve us over what we had at 2B last year.  4 positions to think about from last year.  We only had 3 positions that were worse than league average:

• Catcher sOPS+ of 87.  That's almost entirely due to Wong's 48.  Narvaez had a 108.  I expect Wong to improve, and my guess is that we land at 100.
• 1B with an 84.  Contreras should be a huge improvement over that.
• 2B with a 97.  We had a .670 last year.  Using Mayer as a 2B should yield a .703 and push us over 100.
• At 3B, adding someone like Paredes or Baty will keep us over 100.  And Yoshida should be roughly league-average DH.

IMVHO, as we stand right now, we will have a better than average OPS.  If we acquire Paredes or Baty, we should be in the top-11.

That all makes sense, but we are projected at 23rd in everyday player fWAR, which includes defense. While I don't put total faith in fWAR nor projected anything, it is so low that even if they said 15th, I'd be worried our offense is worse than 2025 and maybe even below average.

fangraphs has our batting projected to be ranked 16th, as far as I can tell. If we added a Paredes or even Donovan, we'd likely be above average, but maybe not top 10.

Last year our offense was ranked 11th with out OPS at #9. We were 7th in Runs but the home field advantage needs to be factored in. That being said, we were 6th in road runs and 8th in runs scored at home.

[notin]

26 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

On the first, I agree.  But that's why you throw in Masa, or Hicks, or the Mets throw in Vientos or something else.

On the second, I could trade Abreu, but prefer to trade Duran.  Duran was fine in CF, kind of like Ellsbury.  But I find him painful to watch in LF.  That said, watching him run the bases is truly joyful.  Line drives straight at the CF, and then watching the CF have to hustle to keep him to a single is remarkable.

But one should really go.

I wouldn’t trade Duran for Baty, and I certainly wouldn’t do it to offload Hicks or Yoshida.  The “let’s not only sell low, but also use those contracts at their nadir to devalue our other players” seems like the dumbest strategy possible.  
 

I mean, why not trade Yoshida, Hicks and Roman Anthony for Mark Vientos?  After all, it checks every box many fans want.  (And is fair on BTV.)

Yoshida gone? Check

Hicks gone? Check

Outfiekd logjam clear? Check

Infielder acquired? Check

Right-handed power bat? Check

Freed up enough money for a Three True Outcome hitter that doesn’t actually draw walks but makes up for it by striking out more?  And check!

(That was a sarcastic trade offer.)

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I didn't realize that you didn't have access to the internet.  Try this one: https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/

Does that show budget vs revenue? (It would have to be projected 2026 revenue, too.)

I applied this year's budget to last year's revenue and it bumped us up a few slots, but I'm not sure how accurate that methodology is.

I'm not sure how many teams have jumped their spending by $26M.

My guess is our ranking from 2024 to 2026 will improve but still be under #16. I'm not sure being near the middle of the pack is something to get irate about.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

I wouldn’t trade Duran for Baty, and I certainly wouldn’t do it to offload Hicks or Yoshida.  The “let’s not only sell low, but do it in such a way it devalues our other players” seems like the dumbest strategy possible.  

I'd only do it if the $10.3M AAV for Hicks plus the $7.7M saved on Duran allow us to add someone like E Suarez.

Duran & Hicks <<< Baty & Suarez (with the $21M saved)

I do think Duran is better than Baty, but I see Duran as our 2026 DH or mostly at DH. His OPS maybe be marginally better than Masa/Romy/Casas/Campbell.

The gain we see from Baty vs DHam/Romy is larger than the loss from Duran vs Masa & Co,

Now, if you want to say Masa=Suarez, then okay.

[notin]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd only do it if the $10.3M AAV for Hicks plus the $7.7M saved on Duran allow us to add someone like E Suarez.

Duran & Hicks <<< Baty & Suarez (with the $21M saved)

I do think Duran is better than Baty, but I see Duran as our 2026 DH or mostly at DH. His OPS maybe be marginally better than Masa/Romy/Casas/Campbell.

The gain we see from Baty vs DHam/Romy is larger than the loss from Duran vs Masa & Co,

Now, if you want to say Masa=Suarez, then okay.

Life is much easier if they just sign Suarez for 3b.  But they haven’t done so.  Why not?  
 

I’m guessing it’s because they do not like him enough for whatever deal he is seeking.  
 

Trading Duran for a lesser return does not change that…

[FredLynn]

49 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I didn't realize that you didn't have access to the internet.  Try this one: https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/

I don’t see what we are discussing here-the percentage of revenue spent on player salaries by team. Maybe I missed it. Is it in your link? Or are you trying to change the subject to excuse Henry’s cheapskate behavior….?

[FredLynn]

13 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Does that show budget vs revenue? (It would have to be projected 2026 revenue, too.)

I applied this year's budget to last year's revenue and it bumped us up a few slots, but I'm not sure how accurate that methodology is.

I'm not sure how many teams have jumped their spending by $26M.

My guess is our ranking from 2024 to 2026 will improve but still be under #16. I'm not sure being near the middle of the pack is something to get irate about.

Why shouldn’t the fans expect more from an owner who supposedly is committed to winning? Hey-if Henry is more committed to fattening his wallet than winning he should at least he should be honest about it.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Life is much easier if they just sign Suarez for 3b.  But they haven’t done so.  Why not?  
 

I’m guessing it’s because they do not like him enough for whatever deal he is seeking.  
 

Trading Duran for a lesser return does not change that…

My whole point of the trade is that it frees up the money that might be currently keeping us from signing E Suarez, now. There were reports we have talked to ESuarez's agents.

We might also be waiting for the Suarez price to drop. We may be waiting on a trade to reach a yes point before pivoting to Suarez.

Suarez has not signed elsewhere, either, so we have no way of knowing if we are the front-runner or not- or a top 2-3 frontrunner.

I'm not as high in ESuarez as I was earlier in the winter. He glove sucks and we added a 1Bman. We have 4 -5 DHs, now. Trading Duran takes away our best DH option, so that dynamic changes because of the trade. The budget relief from adding Masa or Hicks allows for a significant addition, whether it's ESuarez or some higher priced trade target. Maybe it allows us to trade for Paredes and sign a RP'er or two.

There is merit to the idea of trading Duran plus Hicks/Masa to allow us to add 2 key pieces.

[moonslav59]

Just now, FredLynn said:

Why shouldn’t the fans expect more from an owner who supposedly is committed to winning? Hey-if Henry is more committed to fattening his wallet than winning he should at least he should be honest about it.

Who are you arguing with?

I keep saying I agree he should spend more.

I point out he's spent $50M more than 2024, but that is not enough, since he had cut so much from 2019, that context is needed.

However, do you really think a top 6 spending team can never have a significant hope of winning a ring, especially a team with several lower paid pre-arb and arb players? A team with several young players locked up for many years at what will eventually be below market costs. (Right now, for example, K Campbell's $7.5M looks like an underwater deal.)

 

[notin]

33 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

My whole point of the trade is that it frees up the money that might be currently keeping us from signing E Suarez, now. There were reports we have talked to ESuarez's agents.

We might also be waiting for the Suarez price to drop. We may be waiting on a trade to reach a yes point before pivoting to Suarez.

Suarez has not signed elsewhere, either, so we have no way of knowing if we are the front-runner or not- or a top 2-3 frontrunner.

I'm not as high in ESuarez as I was earlier in the winter. He glove sucks and we added a 1Bman. We have 4 -5 DHs, now. Trading Duran takes away our best DH option, so that dynamic changes because of the trade. The budget relief from adding Masa or Hicks allows for a significant addition, whether it's ESuarez or some higher priced trade target. Maybe it allows us to trade for Paredes and sign a RP'er or two.

There is merit to the idea of trading Duran plus Hicks/Masa to allow us to add 2 key pieces.

The Sox could sign Suarez now and free up money over the next 2 months.  In fact, if they wanted Suarez, that’s how they would do it because:

1) waiting to offload money before signing Suarez doesn’t guarantee he will still be available

 2) then they would know exactly how much they need to offload 

That Suarez has not been signed is a pretty good indication he isn’t on their radar, at least not as high as some fans think he should be.

And you’re not upgrading.  You’re willingly devaluing Duran in order to “upgrade” the DH position from a player with a .762 OPS in the past 3 years to one with a .775 OPS in the past 3 years…

[JoeBrady]

40 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I don’t see what we are discussing here-the percentage of revenue spent on player salaries by team. Maybe I missed it. Is it in your link? Or are you trying to change the subject to excuse Henry’s cheapskate behavior….?

Fair enough on the calculations, but it was there to show you we are 6th in spending.

[FredLynn]

37 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Who are you arguing with?

I keep saying I agree he should spend more.

I point out he's spent $50M more than 2024, but that is not enough, since he had cut so much from 2019, that context is needed.

However, do you really think a top 6 spending team can never have a significant hope of winning a ring, especially a team with several lower paid pre-arb and arb players? A team with several young players locked up for many years at what will eventually be below market costs. (Right now, for example, K Campbell's $7.5M looks like an underwater deal.)

 

I’m not “arguing with “ anyone, especially you since we are in agreement that a higher percentage of revenue should be spent on high quality players that can make this team competitive NOW. Henry has the resources. He’s pocketing too much of the revenue to support his lie that his priority is winning. The other half of this is that Breslow is incompetent at just about everything besides making excuses. He’s a master at that.

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

The other half of this is that Breslow is incompetent at just about everything besides making excuses. He’s a master at that.

So, 78 to 81 to 89 wins was just blind luck by an incompetent GM?

"just about everything" is a phrase I fully disagree with.

He refocused the pitching from the farm, to 40 man and 26 man rosters.

He has extended our best young players beyond their last arb year like no other Sox GM, thereby lessening the chances we lose our stars to free agency- something that has been a huge thorn in our side since DD's departure.

He has made several unquestionable good trades and signings/extensions that automatically brings into question your "everything" statement all by itself.

He's made mistakes- some big ones. He's not a good communicator. He's at worst, partially responsible for the Devers fiasco and ultimate trade. The Sale trade might have made some sense, at the time, but backfired on both ends in spectacular fashion. The Priester trade looked bad, last year but is still TBD. The Buehler signing was bad and twice the cost of Kluber or Richards. There are some lesser deals that were bad or look bad, so far, but there have been many good to great deals and signings and extensions. Not everything has been bad, and we have clearly improved.

[FredLynn]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

So, 78 to 81 to 89 wins was just blind luck by an incompetent GM?

"just about everything" is a phrase I fully disagree with.

He refocused the pitching from the farm, to 40 man and 26 man rosters.

He has extended our best young players beyond their last arb year like no other Sox GM, thereby lessening the chances we lose our stars to free agency- something that has been a huge thorn in our side since DD's departure.

He has made several unquestionable good trades and signings/extensions that automatically brings into question your "everything" statement all by itself.

He's made mistakes- some big ones. He's not a good communicator. He's at worst, partially responsible for the Devers fiasco and ultimate trade. The Sale trade might have made some sense, at the time, but backfired on both ends in spectacular fashion. The Priester trade looked bad, last year but is still TBD. The Buehler signing was bad and twice the cost of Kluber or Richards. There are some lesser deals that were bad or look bad, so far, but there have been many good to great deals and signings and extensions. Not everything has been bad, and we have clearly improved.

He’s not good enough to have made this franchise competitive for a ring. Look, for example, at what he has NOT done this offseason. Maybe I expect more from the GM. Too many failures; too many lapses in communication and judgment. If they aren’t serious competitors for a ring this year he should be fired.

[moonslav59]

2.5 years in and these are the Brez additions:

Crochet, Ranger, Sony, Oviedo, Sandoval

Chapman, Slaten, Weissert, Harrison, Watson, Moran, Hicks

Contreras, Narvaez, Romy, Eaton

Early, Witherspoon, Bennett, Sandlin, Phillips, Eyanson, Holobetz, Samaniego, Delzine & others

J Gonzales, Godbout, Soto, Azocar, Ramos, Rivas, Cason, Guzman, Heyman, Primera, Silverio & others

Others he added but are now gone: Bregman, Giolito, O"Neil, Buehler, Wilson, Grissom, Criswell and others

 

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

He’s not good enough to have made this franchise competitive for a ring. Look, for example, at what he has NOT done this offseason. Maybe I expect more from the GM. Too many failures; too many lapses in communication and judgment. If they aren’t serious competitors for a ring this year he should be fired.

1. He's not done.

2, Tied for 7th on projected total fWAR is subjectively competitive or not. We are 1.1 away from 6th, 1.6 away from 5th and 1.8 from 4th. One could argue that's close enough to call competitive.

3. Adding a 2.4 Paredes or the like would move us to 4th or 5th, assuming the teams ahead of us don't make major additions, too.

While I do share your view that we should have improved by more, the winter is not over. If we stop now, or other teams just ahead of us add more than us, I will not be happy, but I won't say "everything" he has done is bad.

I understand that might have been hyperbole, since you have admitted some moves are good and have been good.

I wish we had gotten Alonso, Schwarber of KMarte, even if it meant one less pitcher or even no Gray & Contreras, maybe, as long as the leftover money was uses on a RP'er or two, or an upgrade somewhere else.

[Old Red]

38 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

So, 78 to 81 to 89 wins was just blind luck by an incompetent GM?

"just about everything" is a phrase I fully disagree with.

He refocused the pitching from the farm, to 40 man and 26 man rosters.

He has extended our best young players beyond their last arb year like no other Sox GM, thereby lessening the chances we lose our stars to free agency- something that has been a huge thorn in our side since DD's departure.

He has made several unquestionable good trades and signings/extensions that automatically brings into question your "everything" statement all by itself.

He's made mistakes- some big ones. He's not a good communicator. He's at worst, partially responsible for the Devers fiasco and ultimate trade. The Sale trade might have made some sense, at the time, but backfired on both ends in spectacular fashion. The Priester trade looked bad, last year but is still TBD. The Buehler signing was bad and twice the cost of Kluber or Richards. There are some lesser deals that were bad or look bad, so far, but there have been many good to great deals and signings and extensions. Not everything has been bad, and we have clearly improved.

Good summation, and if you mean Brez was 99% responsible for the Devers fiasco as partially then I agree, because I will say that Brez did Botch/Bungled the Raffy situation from beginning to end, and all for a one, and done, and $40M.

[Randy Red Sox]

On 1/29/2026 at 8:27 AM, notin said:

So far this off-season, the Sox have all but completely ignored the bullpen, with the biggest additions being Ryan Watson and Tyler Samaniego.   I could see adding maybe a Danny Coulombe into the mix., if you consider that spending.

One reason for the slow activity could be that the Sox are not close to adding anyone that they feel is a significant upgrade over the current 40 man roster, so there’s no one they want to DFA.  If so, maybe they are on hold until such a time as Houck can be placed on the 60 day IL..

they have a surplus of SP so they will probably just move a starter or 2 to the pen. 

[Randy Red Sox]

45 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

So, 78 to 81 to 89 wins was just blind luck by an incompetent GM?

"just about everything" is a phrase I fully disagree with.

He refocused the pitching from the farm, to 40 man and 26 man rosters.

He has extended our best young players beyond their last arb year like no other Sox GM, thereby lessening the chances we lose our stars to free agency- something that has been a huge thorn in our side since DD's departure.

He has made several unquestionable good trades and signings/extensions that automatically brings into question your "everything" statement all by itself.

He's made mistakes- some big ones. He's not a good communicator. He's at worst, partially responsible for the Devers fiasco and ultimate trade. The Sale trade might have made some sense, at the time, but backfired on both ends in spectacular fashion. The Priester trade looked bad, last year but is still TBD. The Buehler signing was bad and twice the cost of Kluber or Richards. There are some lesser deals that were bad or look bad, so far, but there have been many good to great deals and signings and extensions. Not everything has been bad, and we have clearly improved.

The BEST thing Breslow has done has been to focus on the pitching.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Good summation, and if you mean Brez was 99% responsible for the Devers fiasco as partially then I agree, because I will say that Brez did Botch/Bungled the Raffy situation from beginning to end, and all for a one, and done, and $40M.

From what I know, if I had to assign blame on the Devers fiasco & departure, I'd probably put Brez first, but I also think Devers should have moved to 1B w/o public comments. If it's true that Cora refused to even ask Devers to move to 1B, when his boss wanted that to happen, I think that is unsettling, at best and worthy of some blame at worst.

99%, no. Maybe over 50%, yes.

I am a bit relieved to see we have spent more than the 2025 budget, but the power gap remains. That's on Brez, because we see he had the budget to spend more on batting than pitching and chose not to do that.

That being said, teams can win with different roster constructions, and maybe the pitching will carry us to glory, or the batting will do better than we expected.

The winter is not over, yet, either.

[Randy Red Sox]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

My whole point of the trade is that it frees up the money that might be currently keeping us from signing E Suarez, now. There were reports we have talked to ESuarez's agents.

We might also be waiting for the Suarez price to drop. We may be waiting on a trade to reach a yes point before pivoting to Suarez.

Suarez has not signed elsewhere, either, so we have no way of knowing if we are the front-runner or not- or a top 2-3 frontrunner.

I'm not as high in ESuarez as I was earlier in the winter. He glove sucks and we added a 1Bman. We have 4 -5 DHs, now. Trading Duran takes away our best DH option, so that dynamic changes because of the trade. The budget relief from adding Masa or Hicks allows for a significant addition, whether it's ESuarez or some higher priced trade target. Maybe it allows us to trade for Paredes and sign a RP'er or two.

There is merit to the idea of trading Duran plus Hicks/Masa to allow us to add 2 key pieces.

I would not be trading Duran to upgrade the 2B position. I'd just stick to the in-house guys we currently have. Duran has too many good attributes and i have seen that he is projected by some to have a 30 SB-30 HR season this year. I keep him. Abreu goes before him IMO but I'm not sure I even deal him for a 2B not named Marte. We have a surplus of SP we could deal from but I do not put Bello in that group. You seem to be high on Sandavol and maybe the guy we got from the Pirates. No way in he$$ do any of Tolle, Early, or Witherspoon  for a 2B. Now if we were somehow able to pry Skubul out of Detroit....

[JoeBrady]

33 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

So, 78 to 81 to 89 wins was just blind luck by an incompetent GM?

While some credit should go to Bloom for providing a fair amount of assets, Breslow's record has been quite good.

Fitts, Weissert, Slaten, O'Neill, Narvaez, Chapman, Crochet, some good drafts.  Lost on Sale & Buehler.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

The BEST thing Breslow has done has been to focus on the pitching.

Much of that is still speculative (or suspect as one poster would call it,) but on paper he has made massive overhauls and upgrades from top to bottom on pitching.

The everyday players were largely handed to him by Bloom & even DD. His biggest add was Breggie, and now he's gone (O'Neil too). His biggest lasting additions are Narvaez & Contreras. He lost Devers and others.

Considering the graduations of Anthony, Mayer, Campbell, Narvaez and others under Brez, having a pretty highly ranked farm is another good thing. Part of that is captured by the pitching upgrade as being the "best."