A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'm fine if he's platooning at 2b with Romy and they've added another bat to the roster. If they're just putting Mayer at 3b and Hamilton at 2b, it'll be rough. 

The Red Sox have said they would rather he play 3B.

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, Old Red said:

The Red Sox have said they would rather he play 3B.

I know. 

If they sign Eugenio, Marcelo would play 2b. If they trade for Paredes, Marcelo may play 2b. 

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I know. 

If they sign Eugenio, Marcelo would play 2b. If they trade for Paredes, Marcelo may play 2b. 

I think you’re right in that what the Red Sox are waiting to do they are waiting for the price to go down.

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I think you’re right in that what the Red Sox are waiting to do they are waiting for the price to go down.

Suarez is the only 2b/3b guy left via FA that is projected to be better than a 1 fWAR player. If it's not him, it's gotta be a trade. Truck Day is Monday, so we're getting closer and closer every day to calling it. 

[Duran Is The Man]

19 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It's not like trades after January are all that rare, and there are still a FA or two out there. Maybe some team is waiting to see what happens with Suarez, before a trade occurs.

I'd feel okay with a 2B platoon of Mayer v R and Romy v L. I'm not sure I'd say the same about Romy at 3B, and a Mayer-Eaton 3B platoon is not on my radar. I hope it's not on Cora's either.

Both Paredes and Donovan, as well as infielders like Baty, Vientos, Smith and Hoerner are still, bay all accounts, still available, and some of those teams need an OF'er and or a SP'er, where we have a couple logjams.

I think a trade is still probable,

i was wondering what it would take to get Hoerner, so i decided to look at some of the trades proposed on BTV. there are several mock trades with the Red Sox and i'd be fine with most all of them. what caught my eye, though, was a proposed 3-team trade between the TIgers, Mariners and Cubs, involving Nico, Casey Mize and Seattle AA second baseman, Michael Arroyo.  i'm sorry, but there is no world where Arroyo is worth either of these guys, yet BTV values them all the same. i know they have their methods for calculating value but, IMHO, they SERIOUSLY overvalue minor league players. i've seen Arroyo play and he may be the Mariner's 5th best suspect, but he'll never make it.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i was wondering what it would take to get Hoerner, so i decided to look at some of the trades proposed on BTV. there are several mock trades with the Red Sox and i'd be fine with most all of them. what caught my eye, though, was a proposed 3-team trade between the TIgers, Mariners and Cubs, involving Nico, Casey Mize and Seattle AA second baseman, Michael Arroyo.  i'm sorry, but there is no world where Arroyo is worth either of these guys, yet BTV values them all the same. i know they have their methods for calculating value but, IMHO, they SERIOUSLY overvalue minor league players. i've seen Arroyo play and he may be the Mariner's 5th best suspect, but he'll never make it.

Arroyo is one year older than Arias and MASHED in high A. I don't believe his defense is as good though. 

[Old Red]

15 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i was wondering what it would take to get Hoerner, so i decided to look at some of the trades proposed on BTV. there are several mock trades with the Red Sox and i'd be fine with most all of them. what caught my eye, though, was a proposed 3-team trade between the TIgers, Mariners and Cubs, involving Nico, Casey Mize and Seattle AA second baseman, Michael Arroyo.  i'm sorry, but there is no world where Arroyo is worth either of these guys, yet BTV values them all the same. i know they have their methods for calculating value but, IMHO, they SERIOUSLY overvalue minor league players. i've seen Arroyo play and he may be the Mariner's 5th best suspect, but he'll never make it.

Nico would be a one, and done. You really want to trade for that?

[notin]

49 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I think you’re right in that what the Red Sox are waiting to do they are waiting for the price to go down.

Or waiting for some teams to have the inevitable pitching injuries that make other players more available all of the sudden…

[notin]

18 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i was wondering what it would take to get Hoerner, so i decided to look at some of the trades proposed on BTV. there are several mock trades with the Red Sox and i'd be fine with most all of them. what caught my eye, though, was a proposed 3-team trade between the TIgers, Mariners and Cubs, involving Nico, Casey Mize and Seattle AA second baseman, Michael Arroyo.  i'm sorry, but there is no world where Arroyo is worth either of these guys, yet BTV values them all the same. i know they have their methods for calculating value but, IMHO, they SERIOUSLY overvalue minor league players. i've seen Arroyo play and he may be the Mariner's 5th best suspect, but he'll never make it.

On talent?  No.  But Arroyo would be a minimum wage player for 3 years, which is worth a lot…

[Duran Is The Man]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Arroyo is one year older than Arias and MASHED in high A. I don't believe his defense is as good though. 

he didn't mash in AA.

[JoeBrady]

14 hours ago, UtahSox said:

I like the idea of Donovan but I don’t think St Louis wants Bello or Duran. (Just speculating where they are in the reboot.)

Good point.  Bloom looks like he a) rationalizing the roster, and b) rebuilding.  It'll be interesting to see if Wetherholt starts immediately, or if they wait until he passes the service time requirement.

[Duran Is The Man]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

On talent?  No.  But Arroyo would be a minimum wage player for 3 years, which is worth a lot…

i have nothing against him, i just don't think he has MLB talent. and no way he should be valued the same as Mize and Hoerner.

[notin]

1 minute ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i have nothing against him, i just don't think he has MLB talent. and no way he should be valued the same as Mize and Hoerner.

Someone is projecting him to be one.  And if he only plays 2 years with just over 2 fWAR total, he justifies that valuation…

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

he didn't mash in AA.

Neither did Arias and we have posters on here projecting him as a starter. Keith Law has him as a top 20 prospect and lauds his bat. 

[Duran Is The Man]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

Someone is projecting him to be one.  And if he only plays 2 years with just over 2 fWAR total, he justifies that valuation…

they have their opinions and i have mine. and, again, i just think it's nuckin futz that they value those three the same. 

[Duran Is The Man]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Neither did Arias and we have posters on here projecting him as a starter. Keith Law has him as a top 20 prospect and lauds his bat. 

i've never seen Arias play, so i have no opinion on that. and, frankly, Arias has nothing to do with Arroyo.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Duran Is The Man said:

they have their opinions and i have mine. and, again, i just think it's nuckin futz that they value those three the same. 

It's because of the money paid out net with projected WAR. Younger players make less money and will exceed the value they are paid. Older players tend to not recoup their contracts. 

[JoeBrady]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Neither did Arias and we have posters on here projecting him as a starter. Keith Law has him as a top 20 prospect and lauds his bat. 

I'd bet on his being our starting SS post-Story, but part of that (as Notin points out above) is because of cost.  Having a league-average starter, at minimum wage, at any position is hugely important.

[Duran Is The Man]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It's because of the money paid out net with projected WAR. Younger players make less money and will exceed the value they are paid. Older players tend to not recoup their contracts. 

not if they never make it to the MLB level. 

[notin]

4 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

not if they never make it to the MLB level. 

Any model in any field anywhere that has the purpose of predicting the future willl be wrong at some point.  

This mathematical law is often referred to as The Weatherman’s Corollary.  Or would be, if anyone other than me ever said it…

[JoeBrady]

10 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

they have their opinions and i have mine. and, again, i just think it's nuckin futz that they value those three the same. 

What's the one-year calculation for Mize?  I'm not a fan of Arroyo, but just for comparison purposes, I'd never consider trading Arias for one year of Mize.  If the upside for Mize is a 3.0 WAR, then his excess value is maybe $24M.  Just imho.

[notin]

27 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I'd bet on his being our starting SS post-Story, but part of that (as Notin points out above) is because of cost.  Having a league-average starter, at minimum wage, at any position is hugely important.

And even if Arroyo peaks as a utility infielder, that can still represent a $2-3mill savings for some team.  That might not mean much to Sox fans, but to teams like the Pirates, that can be important…

[mvp 78]

37 minutes ago, notin said:

And even if Arroyo peaks as a utility infielder, that can still represent a $2-3mill savings for some team.  That might not mean much to Sox fans, but to teams like the Pirates, that can be important…

I think they may be moving him to the OF because his defense is pretty bad. His power is LEGIT though. I think that's what gets him to the bigs. 

[notin]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think they may be moving him to the OF because his defense is pretty bad. His power is LEGIT though. I think that's what gets him to the bigs. 

I know nothing about the guy; I’m speaking in generalities.

But this makes him sound like a re-incarnation of Michael “I’m Not Dead Yet” Morse, but maybe with fewer PEDs. If that’s a fair comparison, he absolutely has trade value especially as a minimum wage player…

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

I know nothing about the guy; I’m speaking in generalities.

But this makes him sound like a re-incarnation of Michael “I’m Not Dead Yet” Morse, but maybe with fewer PEDs. If that’s a fair comparison, he absolutely has trade value especially as a minimum wage player…

By Monday, I will have forgotten that we've even spoken about the guy. 

[notin]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

By Monday, I will have forgotten that we've even spoken about the guy. 

Sounds like you will be drinking a lot this weekend…

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

Sounds like you will be drinking a lot this weekend…

I haven't decided yet. It could get colder here than it has been since 2010. 🥶

[notin]

17 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I haven't decided yet. It could get colder here than it has been since 2010. 🥶

You live in a state where people snort cocaine off the backs of alligators while on their way to purchase guns, and it’s THE WEATHER that makes you drink?

[drewski6]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It's hard to know how much other teams value players like Harrison, Casas and Romero.

I have to think Casas would be "selling low," but who knows.

BTV has Donovan at 31. They have Casas at 7, Harrison at 5 & Romero at 4. That comes to half his value for 2 years of control.

BTV accepts Crawford 20, Casas 7 and DHam 4.

I love Kutter tho :(

And yes, I acknowledge Ive talked about man-crushes and biases before and being a hypocrite here.

But Kutter is 29 and Bello is 26, and if they dont want bello because they are going full rebuild, subbing in crawford isnt really going in the right direction.

Maybe Early for Donovan?  Also - BTV is not always right.  Im not sure Harrison is actually 5 and Donovan is 31.  But that could be wishful thinking on my part because to me , Harrison makes a lot of sense to trade.

Here are the starters that I am against trading at this point in time (in order)

1. Suarez (you cannot trade him at this time, no new free agents can be traded until mid june, so its not an option at all)
2. Crochet can technically trade him but of course no f'ing way not for anything
3. Gray (maybe) Im not sure if we can trade Gray, if we can he moves down 3 spots
4. Tolle (6'6 huge bodied lefty, thows 100, looks like a crochet clone, seems poised - I think he figures out at least 1 or 2 secondaries - rookie of the year potential)
5. Kutter Crawford - yes im biased, but hes one of my guys.  Been following him since he was a long shot minor leaguer.  He was like 30s or 40s on soxprospects YEARS ago and i read an article like - this guy gonna rise, dont sleep and ive liked him ever since
NOTE here is where Gray would be if we can trade him
6. Oviedo - Im intrigued and I dont think he has a lot of vlaue in a reflip. Im a little worried we gave up some value in this trade (e.g. I think that Garcia may have more value than Ov, but I dont hate the trade if we love Ov, but I dont like the trade if we flip Ov for less value than Garcia had)

7. Sandoval - just dont think he has any value

8. Bello I think hes a good pitcher.  But he has value as a sinkerballer who can get out of jams.
9. Early
10. Harrison

Meaning, Im looking to trade Harrison or even Early, but I want a lot more value for Early.  Youd have to blow me away for Tolle.

[Duran Is The Man]

48 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think they may be moving him to the OF because his defense is pretty bad. His power is LEGIT though. I think that's what gets him to the bigs. 

he might get to the bigs, but i'd be surprised.