A Realistic Look at the 2026 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

He finished every season on the IL, it’s really not that misleading.  There’s serious injury concern with him.

I agreed both are injury prone.

I do think saying 1 out of 4 when it was 2 out of 4 is misleading.

[Hugh2]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I agreed both are injury prone.

I do think saying 1 out of 4 when it was 2 out of 4 is misleading.

What is the second full season?

maybe his first full season? A career high 91 games in 2022 doesn’t change my level of concern at all for the Sox lack of infield talent and depth

[Old Red]

10 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

He finished every season on the IL, it’s really not that misleading.  There’s serious injury concern with him.

The time he’s missed too was valuable developmental time.

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

What is the second full season?

maybe his first full season? A career high 91 games in 2022 doesn’t change my level of concern at all for the Sox lack of infield talent and depth

I took the total games played.

Sorry, if I misunderstood you meant season by season.

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, Old Red said:

The time he’s missed too was valuable developmental time.

You've said this as much as I've said "Botched."

🤪

[Hugh2]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

I took the total games played.

Sorry, if I misunderstood you meant season by season.

That’s what I meant.  The odds of at least one of them going down is high, both? Decent.  A Sogard, Romy, Hamilton IF would be disastrous 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

That’s what I meant.  The odds of at least one of them going down is high, both? Decent.  A Sogard, Romy, Hamilton IF would be disastrous 

Oh, I'm very worried about that.

I'm also worried that Story could play 155 game and see his OPS drop by 25-75 points.

Mayer could stay 100% healthy and not get over .700.

There are more worries than just health with those two.

[Old Red]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You've said this as much as I've said "Botched."

🤪

When he stops getting hurt, and develops into a decent, or good player I’ll stop saying it.

[moonslav59]

35 minutes ago, Old Red said:

When he stops getting hurt, and develops into a decent, or good player I’ll stop saying it.

That day may never come, but maybe someone else steps in and gives us more than we hope from Mayer. (Campbell? Arias? Godbout?)

All great young players were once "suspects."

[Old Red]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

That day may never come, but maybe someone else steps in and gives us more than we hope from Mayer. (Campbell? Arias? Godbout?)

All great young players were once "suspects."

It’s true all great young players were once suspects, but all suspects don’t become great, or even good players.

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, Old Red said:

It’s true all great young players were once suspects, but all suspects don’t become great, or even good players.

For sure, but some look like better shots than others.

Not sure Mayer does.

Anthony sure does, but so did Campbell for a couple weeks.

[harmony]

3 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Trevor Story and Marcelo Mayer.  Two guys who have one full season between the two of them the past 4 years.

Is anyone concerned that FanGraphs projects Trevor Story and Marcelo Mayer with 2026 wRC+ of 93 and 90, respectively?

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=fangraphsdc&stats=bat&pos=all&team=3&players=0&lg=all&z=1769744686&sortcol=16&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard

Ceddanne Rafaela and Carlos Narvaez come in at projected wRC+ of 97 and 89, respectively.

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

Is anyone concerned that FanGraphs projects Trevor Story and Marcelo Mayer with 2026 wRC+ of 93 and 90, respectively?

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=fangraphsdc&stats=bat&pos=all&team=3&players=0&lg=all&z=1769744686&sortcol=16&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard

Ceddanne Rafaela and Carlos Narvaez come in at projected wRC+ of 97 and 89, respectively.

considering their history, it is -at least to me- no surprise at all.

[JoeBrady]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Didn't think this one out too much, but here is my last BTV trade offering:

Duran, Sandoval, DHam, Masas & $20M (about half of what Masa is owed)

for

Baty (3B) & Vientos (DH/1B/3B)

Between the $8M x 2 saved on Masa, $8M on Duran and $8M on Sandoval, maybe we can afford to sign a couple RP'ers.

A simpler trade, also accepted was Duran & Hicks for Baty. That might allow us to sign E Suarez to DH and not get Vientos for that. However, we'd still have Masa.

Maybe Duran + Masa + $18M for Baty, then sign Suarez.

I think both trades are reasonable.  But with two notes:

• With the NYMs rotation, they will either go after a legit #2, or no SP at all.  Much like us, they have the #4/5/6/7 slots covered.
• If we did the Duran/Hicks move, I doubt we'd sign Suarez.  He might get some platoon time with Baty at 3rd, but he would start.  And at DH, Masa probably still gets all the ABs against righties.  Suarez is too expensive to be a 300 AB player.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, Old Red said:

It’s true all great young players were once suspects, but all suspects don’t become great, or even good players.

It's the risk, and same route, that every team and every prospect goes through.  At one point, Duran could field or hit.  Romy could hit, but couldn't catch the ball.  Ceddanne had an eye-watering 10:1 K/W just one year ago.  That's the price you pay for development.

[harmony]

32 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

considering their history, it is -at least to me- no surprise at all.

FWIW last year Trevor Story, Carlos Narvaez, Ceddanne Rafaela and Marcelo Mayer posted wRC+ of 101, 97, 91 and 80, respectively.

[JoeBrady]

7 minutes ago, harmony said:

FWIW last year Trevor Story, Carlos Narvaez, Ceddanne Rafaela and Marcelo Mayer posted wRC+ of 101, 97, 91 and 80, respectively.

Most teams have guys under 100.  Given that 100 is the expectation.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, harmony said:

Is anyone concerned that FanGraphs projects Trevor Story and Marcelo Mayer with 2026 wRC+ of 93 and 90, respectively?

Are you concerned these Mariners are projected with 250+ PAs and these wRC+?

94 Robles

94 Williamson

94 Emerson

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

I think both trades are reasonable.  But with two notes:

• With the NYMs rotation, they will either go after a legit #2, or no SP at all.  Much like us, they have the #4/5/6/7 slots covered.
• If we did the Duran/Hicks move, I doubt we'd sign Suarez.  He might get some platoon time with Baty at 3rd, but he would start.  And at DH, Masa probably still gets all the ABs against righties.  Suarez is too expensive to be a 300 AB player.

Good points.

On Duran/Hicks move: we'd have to dump Masa elsewhere to get Suarez.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

Most teams have guys under 100.  Given that 100 is the expectation.

Esp with STEAMER

[Hugh2]

3 hours ago, harmony said:

Is anyone concerned that FanGraphs projects Trevor Story and Marcelo Mayer with 2026 wRC+ of 93 and 90, respectively?

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=fangraphsdc&stats=bat&pos=all&team=3&players=0&lg=all&z=1769744686&sortcol=16&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard

Ceddanne Rafaela and Carlos Narvaez come in at projected wRC+ of 97 and 89, respectively.

No, if healthy they’ll all be fine.  Projections aren’t crystal ball readings.

[Duran Is The Man]

8 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Are you concerned these Mariners are projected with 250+ PAs and these wRC+?

94 Robles

94 Williamson

94 Emerson

 

WIlliamson is an absolutely outstanding fielder, but his bat is weak. maybe he'll improve on that. Emerson has enormous potential. i'm sure he starts in AAA this year.

[moonslav59]

50 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

WIlliamson is an absolutely outstanding fielder, but his bat is weak. maybe he'll improve on that. Emerson has enormous potential. i'm sure he starts in AAA this year.

Agreed, and Rafaela is an outstanding OF'er who put up a 3.8fWAR in 2025, and that is something harmony uses often. harmony also values projections, and Ceddanne has these three fWAR estimates for 2026: 3.2, 2.5 & 3.4.

If he gives us 2.0, I'm not worried, and he shouldn't be either.

[moonslav59]

Although the Sox are not ranked highly with their everyday players, and that is concerning, these are those 3 players' projected fWAR numbers:

3.2 Rafaela (609 PAs)

2.3 Story (665 PAs)

1.9 Narvaez (423 PAs)

1.5 Mayer (539 PAs)

The Sox have 7 players at 1.9 or higher and 8 at 1.5 or higher. The Ms have just 5. Mariner fans should be worried.

 

[harmony]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Although the Sox are not ranked highly with their everyday players, and that is concerning, these are those 3 players' projected fWAR numbers:

3.2 Rafaela (609 PAs)

2.3 Story (665 PAs)

1.9 Narvaez (423 PAs)

1.5 Mayer (539 PAs)

The Sox have 7 players at 1.9 or higher and 8 at 1.5 or higher. The Ms have just 5. Mariner fans should be worried.

 

FanGraphs Depth Charts currently have the Red Sox and the Seattle Mariners tied with a projected WAR of 45.6:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=11

... with the Red Sox holding a clear edge in pitching (22.1-17.6) and the Mariners with a clear edge in batting (28.0-23.5). My, how things have changed.

Red Sox hitters lack the star power of the top-heavy Seattle lineup headed by Julio Rodriguez and Cal 
Raleigh with projected WAR of 5.9 and 5.8, respectively.

Many have one-time top prospect Marcelo Mayer penciled in as a Red Sox starter but his WAR projections are remarkably similar to those of Ben Williamson, the current projected third baseman for the Mariners.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, harmony said:

FanGraphs Depth Charts currently have the Red Sox and the Seattle Mariners tied with a projected WAR of 45.6:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=11

... with the Red Sox holding a clear edge in pitching (22.1-17.6) and the Mariners with a clear edge in batting (28.0-23.5). My, how things have changed.

Red Sox hitters lack the star power of the top-heavy Seattle lineup headed by Julio Rodriguez and Cal 
Raleigh with projected WAR of 5.9 and 5.8, respectively.

Many have one-time top prospect Marcelo Mayer penciled in as a Red Sox starter but his WAR projections are remarkably similar to those of Ben Williamson, the current projected third baseman for the Mariners.

I have serious concerns with Mayer, as well as a DHam/Romy platoon.

I'm not concerned with Rafaela, Story or Narvaez, except with their health.

Our everyday players are more balanced than most team, which may not be a good thing, if we are balanced in mediocrity. We lack big bats, but we also have fewer black holes projected as starters than most teams.

A lot depends on who we add. I hope it's a 3Bman like Paredes, so Mayer plays 2B, and we have Romy as a capable back-up or platoon partner for him. If we get a decent 2Bman, we'll have to live with Mayer and eeek Romy/Eaton at 3B, but we may just pass the M's in projected fWAR for 2026.

BTW, I'm expecting the M's pitching to rebound in 2026.

[FredLynn]

43 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Agreed, and Rafaela is an outstanding OF'er who put up a 3.8fWAR in 2025, and that is something harmony uses often. harmony also values projections, and Ceddanne has these three fWAR estimates for 2026: 3.2, 2.5 & 3.4.

If he gives us 2.0, I'm not worried, and he shouldn't be either.

I have to admit that with all due respect to Harmony I really don't give a rats ass what the Mariners are projected to do this year. I am more concerned with the improved ALE and our pedestrian offense. Its Feb 1 tomorrow and the FLOPS still have not addressed the gaping holes in our lineup. I think they might get another product out of the dumpster but basically no one of signifcance-and really, they need TWO good bats to compete for a ring. 

Henry should have paid Schwarber or Alonso-or at LEAST Bregman plus one other good player. We are left with dregs. Again.

[moonslav59]

I readily admit my bias towards the Sox, and I tend to be more optimistic than many, but I know this team has issues- most glaringly at 3B or 2B and maybe both.

I disagree with fangraphs saying our catching will rank 27th in MLB. While Narvaez may regress, he could also improve. I think Wong's injury hurt is projected value, and he will bounce back and make up for any regression by Narvaez.

I also think Willson Contreras will love hitting in Fenway, and the Sox ranking of 13th at 1B is a bit off. The 25th ranking for SS could happen. Story's defense has slipped, but he did look better than I expected on offense. He nearly went the whole season without a caught stealing, too.

They have us top 7 in all OF slots, so that might make us #1 in overall OF rankings, and our OF depth might be second to none, as well.

They have us with the best rotation and SP group. We are ranked 4th in pen value, and we have yet to add anyone, except Watson. I guess some starters will pitch from the pen.

To me, we are a decent 3B/2Bman away from a top 5 or 6 team and a big bat (and 2B/3Bman) away from top 3-4 in MLB.

Many other teams could make the same claim based on significant improvement at 1 or 2 positions.

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Henry should have paid Schwarber or Alonso-or at LEAST Bregman plus one other good player. We are left with dregs. Again.

One other good player besides Suarez, Gray and Contreras?

I agree on Schwarber or Alonso- not so much with Bregman. Had we gotten one of those two, we could have used the resources needed to get Contreras to get a 2N/3Bman. I guess we could have kept Willson and DH'd Alonso, too.

[FredLynn]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

One other good player besides Suarez, Gray and Contreras?

I agree on Schwarber or Alonso- not so much with Bregman. Had we gotten one of those two, we could have used the resources needed to get Contreras to get a 2N/3Bman. I guess we could have kept Willson and DH'd Alonso, too.

We have a very good starting pitching staff. But Breslow has dropped the ball when it comes to offense, probably because Henry told him not to spend enough to make the team competitive. Time is getting late. Spring training is going to start in a few weeks and the team has not sufficiently improved.